AIL 'On Long Finger'

[osarusan]

Probability does not factor into this issue as not all teams are equal therefore Maths logic is dead.

If you increased the LOI Premier division to 22 clubs by merging the first division this does not reduce the probability of Cork City, Bohs, Pats getting a European place as Athlone, Monaghan etc... will not challenge.

Currently Dungannon may have 15% chance of European football but an AIL would reduce that to 0%.

Are you the person on which the movie A Beautiful Mind was based?

[Schumi]

Most people? Are these the "couple of people in the Montrose" you've mentioned before? Any time it has been mentioned by any opposition fans on the web it has been ridiculed. It has no place in an official match programme for the Eircom League.I'd be more concerned with what people who go to matches and read the programme think than away fans on the internet, personally. I like this section, it's lighthearted but interesting in its way.

No, they actually have stuff to read that's relevant rather than read about food/films or some crap about random leagues.I'm sure any more relevent/interesting content would be included if anyone were to submit it.

[pineapple stu]

Probability does not factor into this issue as not all teams are equal therefore Maths logic is dead.

Currently Dungannon may have 15% chance of European football but an AIL would reduce that to 0%.
Stunning. Quite stunning. You contradict yourself in such a short space of time, first of all saying maths is nonsense, and then agreeing with my maths!

[DmanDmythDledge]

Taken to PM because you clearly don't know what points you're arguing.
LOL. Why don't you just post it here seeing as this is the thread where it will be discussed? You left out a good bit you send in the text to me to- no point making yourself look a bigger fool I suppose...

I'll respond to your points on this thread later when I get the chance.


First of all theres no guarantee that there will even be european places available.

Secondly, what makes you think there will be "better teams" competing for these places? Whats goint to happen to make them better than they are now?
Yes that is true, but when discussing the pros and cons of the AIL proposals re euro places it isn't really relevant.

Linfield and Glentoran would be challenging for the euro places instead of Sligo and Bray, as it is at the moment.


I'm sure any more relevent/interesting content would be included if anyone were to submit it.
Fine then, problem sorted.:)

[pineapple stu]

LOL. Why don't you just post it here seeing as this is the thread where it will be discussed? You left out a good bit you send in the text to me to- no point making yourself look a bigger fool I suppose...
(a) I left out nothing - I sent you two PMs.
(b) Nobody cares; that's why it's gone to PM.

Awaiting your reply with interest. :rolleyes:

[Schumi]

Linfield and Glentoran would be challenging for the euro places instead of Sligo and Bray, as it is at the moment.Thus lessening the chance of a Euro place for all four. This should not be the deciding factor in whether an AIL is a good thing though. There are far more important issues than a couple of European games a season.

Fine then, problem sorted.:)Excellent.

[osarusan]

This should not be the deciding factor in whether an AIL is a good thing though. There are far more important issues than a couple of European games a season.
Excellent.
To be fair, I think the availability of European places would be a pretty major factor in teams being willing to join any AIL.

[Schumi]

To be fair, I think the availability of European places would be a pretty major factor in teams being willing to join any AIL.It might be but I think that would be a bit short-sighted. Setting up an AIL would be a huge change for every club. Four clubs a year missing out on a couple of European games wouldn't be the most important change in my book.

[osarusan]

Four clubs a year missing out on a couple of European games wouldn't be the most important change in my book.
I hope my contributions to this thread so far will have shown I am in no way anti UCD, but a fan of one of the four clubs likely to qualify for europe might feel differently.

[OneRedArmy]

To be fair, I think the availability of European places would be a pretty major factor in teams being willing to join any AIL.Its not.
How any AIL would increase clubs revenues is pretty much the only issue.
IL clubs have an awful European record and ever since people realised Shels Euro successes were built on a pillar of sand expectations around European progress have been scaled back.

[Schumi]

I hope my contributions to this thread so far will have shown I am in no way anti UCD, but a fan of one of the four clubs likely to qualify for europe might feel differently.No offence taken, it's a fair point that I expected to be raised but in general fans of these clubs complain about smaller clubs holding them back because of their concerns about being left behind. I don't think this tallies with being against an AIL because of a short term loss of revenue from European games when the idea is that, long-term, they'll benefit more.

[SolitudeRed]

Theres rumour over on the ILS thread on this same topic of a 55 page proposal/business plan for the AIL having been drawn up by the Platinum one consortium, If such a document exists yet it would be great to see it and find out what they actually have planned!

[GavinZac]

Stunning. Quite stunning. You contradict yourself in such a short space of time, first of all saying maths is nonsense, and then agreeing with my maths!

He agrees with your maths but points out that its nonsense anyway - the entire point of the exercise to replace european qualifiers of Dungannon's ilk.

[Bald Student]

How about we all agree that it'll be harder to qualify for Europe from an AIL and that this will be good for the league as a whole even though some clubs will miss out?

I think we're all actually agreed on this and most of this discussion is petty point scoring and rows over semantics.

[OneRedArmy]

I think we're all actually agreed on this and most of this discussion is petty point scoring and rows over semantics.Too true. In the words of Homer J. Simpson "Welcome to the internet my friend".....

[Bald Student]

Too true. In the words of Homer J. Simpson "Welcome to the internet my friend".....I find it quite funny. I know a lot of people in this thread in the real world and we're all perfectly capable of holding an adult conversation but put them in front of a computer and they take on the temperament of an over-tired child.

I think Student Mullet's the worst. He only ever comes in to stir a bit of cac. He has about a thousand posts and I've never known him to add constructively to a discussion.

[pineapple stu]

How about we all agree that it'll be harder to qualify for Europe from an AIL and that this will be good for the league as a whole even though some clubs will miss out?


He agrees with your maths but points out that its nonsense anyway - the entire point of the exercise to replace european qualifiers of Dungannon's ilk.
I don't disagree with this (and that's rare when GZ's concerned! Although if it's the entire point, it won't get the league far), but just wait until dcfcsteve finds out you've been dissing his "maths"! :eek:

[GavinZac]

Although if it's the entire point, it won't get the league far)Of course it will! Improving the average standard of UEFA qualifying teams, and by extension the standard of premier teams in general will, one hopes, knock at least one hole in the arguments against Joe Punter giving the ELoI a fair chance.

[dcfcsteve]

Let's have one last go at explaining this to you. It really is quite simple, and your view really is quite wrong. Watch also how I explain this without resorting to underline, bold or :Ds to make my point.

Since 1996/97, both the LoI and the IL have had four teams in Europe each. That's 13 seasons, including this one. We can use the number of times each team has qualified for Europe in the past 13 years as a decent estimate of the probability of them getting into Europe in the coming years. That gives us -


Club Times % prob
Glentoran 12 0.92
Shels 11 0.85
Cork 10 0.77
Linfield 10 0.77
Bohs 8 0.62
Portadown 7 0.54
St Pat's 6 0.46
Cliftonville 5 0.38
Derry 4 0.31
Coleraine 4 0.31
Rovers 3 0.23
Longford 3 0.23
Drogheda 3 0.23
Glenavon 3 0.23
Crusaders 2 0.15
Omagh 2 0.15
Lisburn Dist 2 0.15
Dungannon 2 0.15
Sligo 1 0.08
Bray 1 0.08
UCD 1 0.08
Dundalk 1 0.08
Ards 1 0.08
Ballymena 1 0.08
Newry 1 0.08

This takes into account fluctuations such as you mentioned - Limerick coming from nowhere to get into Europe or Shels imploding.

The sum total of all the probabilities is 8, because there's eight Euro slots. In any given year over time, there is, for example, a 92% chance that Glentoran will be in Europe, and an 8% chance Dundalk will be in.

Now imagine we have an AIL where there's four spots going. The sum probability of the first six teams (Glentoran through Portadown) getting into Europe in any one year is 4.5. This can't be, because we only have four spots. Therefore, in order to adjust to four spots, teams will have to have their probabilities of getting into Europe reduced so that the overall sum equals four.

This, of course, is the point of the whole argument, and why your attempts to get around maths by using English are nonsense. In order for the maths to work, Glentoran's probability would reduce from 0.92 to something like 0.5 (say). That means that, instead of qualifying for Europe 92% of the time, they'd be qualifying 50% of the time.

QED.

If you want to take issue with that, I'd advise letting some international maths body know you're changing probability theory.

Pineapple - your mathematical analysis of probability overlayed onto football is valid. Sadly - it's only valid for the time that it stays on the spreadsheet you keep next to your box of Kleenex. Take it into the real world and it breaks down quicker than Amy Winehouse in Rehab.

Anyone who knows anything about football will tell you that probability - along the lines you're suggesting - is only very loosely relevant to football. It's not chess ffs.

Firstly - success in football is influenced by far too many variables that a ridiculously simple 'summary' (it doesn't even qualify as a model) such as yours doesn't even begin to address. Managerial changes, player changes, injuries to key players, Boardroom strife, weather, referreeing decisions in key games, home vs away draws in cup games etc etc etc - all these will have a greater influence upon a team's likelihood of Euro qualification in any particular season than some primary schoool analysis of how often they've made it to Europe over the past 13 years.

Secondly - as the financial ads always state, past performance is no indicator of future performance. And particularly in an extremely fluid league like the EL. Your own analysis clearly supports this. Where else could Longford be considered to have a greater chance of European qualification than Drogheda ; or Shels a greater chance than - well, pretty much anyone, than in some meaningless historical analysis that bears no reflection to actual current reality ?

Thirdly - as Pete pointed out, the maths of your analysis is shakier than Michael J Fox's tea-cup, by virtue of assuming all clubs are equal. They're not. We all know that. And the inequality fluctutes over time - making past performance even less relevant (note Shels and Drogheda again as examples). Again - the world of geek maths fails to acknowledge the hard, cold realities of life. For example, how can every club you list be assumed to have an equal chance of European qualification when they don't all have equal access to European slots in the first place (due to different divisions) ? Also - I'm sure the good people of Omagh will be delighted to hear you give them a shot at qualification for European football - almost 3 years to the day after their club went pop. Naughty, difficult reality playing havoc yet again with your beloved mathematical probabilities.

I could go on - but I suspect that the sensible on here will have more than an inkling that your assesment is so bogus that Bill and Ted are about to sue for breach of patent. You've always come across as a bean counter first and a football fan second - which is why I suspect you're struggling with the heresy of the cold fact that mathematical models often break down when transfered from spreadsheet into eveyday reality. Particularly in the illogical, multi-variable world of football. Which, after all, is a core part of why people love the whole game in the first place......

I
f you want a more straightforward way of thinking of it, imagine (as I've told you before) you're in a group of 12, and you're told that in eight months' time, four of you will be shot. Now imagine a second group, with 16 people in it who will also have four of them shot in eight months' time. You're told that, if you want, you can merge together and, of the new group, only four of you will be shot. What is your choice?

For someone who think's they're only none step away from being John Forbes Nash (aka 'A Beautiful Mind') you seem peculiarly incapable of grasping one of the core caveats of mathematical analysis. Your example assumes that all participants are equal. Hence why it's meaningless. In football, teams never are. And their relative inequality fluctuates wildly over time (back to the Shels and Drogd extremes) which makes the above even more pointless as an analogy.

[Bald Student]

Pineapple - your mathematical analysis of probability overlayed onto football is valid. Sadly - it's only valid for the time that it stays on the spreadsheet you keep next to your box of Kleenex. Take it into the real world and it breaks down quicker than Amy Winehouse in Rehab.

Anyone who knows anything about football will tell you that probability - along the lines you're suggesting - is only very loosely relevant to football. It's not chess ffs.

Firstly - success in football is influenced by far too many variables that a ridiculously simple 'summary' (it doesn't even qualify as a model) such as yours doesn't even begin to address. Managerial changes, player changes, injuries to key players, Boardroom strife, weather, referreeing decisions in key games, home vs away draws in cup games etc etc etc - all these will have a greater influence upon a team's likelihood of Euro qualification in any particular season than some primary schoool analysis of how often they've made it to Europe over the past 13 years.

Secondly - as the financial ads always state, past performance is no indicator of future performance. And particularly in an extremely fluid league like the EL. Your own analysis clearly supports this. Where else could Longford be considered to have a greater chance of European qualification than Drogheda ; or Shels a greater chance than - well, pretty much anyone, than in some meaningless historical analysis that bears no reflection to actual current reality ?

Thirdly - as Pete pointed out, the maths of your analysis is shakier than Michael J Fox's tea-cup, by virtue of assuming all clubs are equal. They're not. We all know that. And the inequality fluctutes over time - making past performance even less relevant (note Shels and Drogheda again as examples). Again - the world of geek maths fails to acknowledge the hard, cold realities of life. For example, how can every club you list be assumed to have an equal chance of European qualification when they don't all have equal access to European slots in the first place (due to different divisions) ? Also - I'm sure the good people of Omagh will be delighted to hear you give them a shot at qualification for European football - almost 3 years to the day after their club went pop. Naughty, difficult reality playing havoc yet again with your beloved mathematical probabilities.

I could go on - but I suspect that the sensible on here will have more than an inkling that your assesment is so bogus that Bill and Ted are about to sue for breach of patent. You've always come across as a bean counter first and a football fan second - which is why I suspect you're struggling with the heresy of the cold fact that mathematical models often break down when transfered from spreadsheet into eveyday reality. Particularly in the illogical, multi-variable world of football. Which, after all, is a core part of why people love the whole game in the first place......

I

For someone who think's they're only none step away from being John Forbes Nash (aka 'A Beautiful Mind') you seem peculiarly incapable of grasping one of the core caveats of mathematical analysis. Your example assumes that all participants are equal. Hence why it's meaningless. In football, teams never are. And their relative inequality fluctuates wildly over time (back to the Shels and Drogd extremes) which makes the above even more pointless as an analogy.

I think Pineapple's basic point is that it would be harder for a club to qualify for Europe in the proposed league. I think that is correct, whether it's a good thing or a bad thing is more a matter of opinion.

[pete]

I think Pineapple's basic point is that it would be harder for a club to qualify for Europe in the proposed league. I think that is correct, whether it's a good thing or a bad thing is more a matter of opinion.

True. In the current LOI chances of qualifying from the league are about 2 or 3 from 6 for those clubs with that aspiration. In an AIL would be 2 or 3 from maybe 8. The majority of clubs have little or no chance of Europe now so would be no change for them - chances of getting in via the Cup won't likely change.

Maybe the Cup place could be kept in both sides of the border for interim 5 years or similar?

[dcfcsteve]

I think Pineapple's basic point is that it would be harder for a club to qualify for Europe in the proposed league. I think that is correct, whether it's a good thing or a bad thing is more a matter of opinion.

I've said myself all along that the level of competition for Euro slots would probably increase under an AIL. But that is a very different arguement from 'we're losing 4 Euro spaces' - which no single club is.

Also - the increaseed competition arguement is not a criticism exclusive to an AIL, yet it is only ever trotted out as an excuse against that type of change. For example - most IL fans would probably love to have Derry City back in their league, yet wouldn't raise any issue about such a move then increasing competition for Euro spaces. Yet as soon as you mention an AIL, Euro competition then become a big issue (even though it's all thoroughly academic anyway, given how rubbish they usually are in Europe). Likewise in the EL - when we moved from a 10 team to a 12 team top division, I don't recall anyone complaining that it wa bd because it would make it more competitive to get into Europe ?

The Euro arguement is therefore a red herring that is not particular to an AIL - yet is only ever used as a stick to beat that particular proposal. Hence why it should be broadly discounted.

[DmanDmythDledge]

Thus lessening the chance of a Euro place for all four.
True, but as GavinZac or Pete pointed out clubs in that situation will take that chance because they know that they would improve and the teams around them would improve.

[Bald Student]

I've said myself all along that the level of competition for Euro slots would probably increase under an AIL. But that is a very different arguement from 'we're losing 4 Euro spaces' - which no single club is.

Also - the increaseed competition arguement is not a criticism exclusive to an AIL, yet it is only ever trotted out as an excuse against that type of change. For example - most IL fans would probably love to have Derry City back in their league, yet wouldn't raise any issue about such a move then increasing competition for Euro spaces. Yet as soon as you mention an AIL, Euro competition then become a big issue (even though it's all thoroughly academic anyway, given how rubbish they usually are in Europe). Likewise in the EL - when we moved from a 10 team to a 12 team top division, I don't recall anyone complaining that it wa bd because it would make it more competitive to get into Europe ?

The Euro arguement is therefore a red herring that is not particular to an AIL - yet is only ever used as a stick to beat that particular proposal. Hence why it should be broadly discounted.

I think the main reason it's a big issue (on this internet site) is because there are people trying to pretend it doesn't exist at all. Fewer clubs getting to play in Europe is a negative of this proposal which can be balanced against the positives, one of which is having a higher standard of club representing us in Europe.

[DmanDmythDledge]

I think Pineapple's basic point is that it would be harder for a club to qualify for Europe in the proposed league. I think that is correct, whether it's a good thing or a bad thing is more a matter of opinion.
It's not though (well at least he hasn't said that). He's said that 8-4=4 and some pointless probability and then determined that less European places is automatically a bad thing, which is a simplistic way of looking at it.

[Student Mullet]

It's not though (well at least he hasn't said that). He's said that 8-4=4 and some pointless probability and then determined that less European places is automatically a bad thing, which is a simplistic way of looking at it.

I think he said it in his own bean counting kind of way.

[pineapple stu]

and then determined that less European places is automatically a bad thing, which is a simplistic way of looking at it.
Where did I determine that?


Pineapple - your mathematical analysis of probability overlayed onto football is valid.

Anyone who knows anything about football will tell you that probability - along the lines you're suggesting - is only very loosely relevant to football. It's not chess ffs.

Firstly - success in football is influenced by far too many variables that a ridiculously simple 'summary' (it doesn't even qualify as a model) such as yours doesn't even begin to address. Managerial changes, player changes, injuries to key players, Boardroom strife, weather, referreeing decisions in key games, home vs away draws in cup games etc etc etc - all these will have a greater influence upon a team's likelihood of Euro qualification in any particular season than some primary schoool analysis of how often they've made it to Europe over the past 13 years.
And why do you think the teams who got into Europe in the past 13 years got into Europe? All those factors are taken into account, and no amount of tabloid-esque hysteria on your part can alter that fact.


Of course it will! Improving the average standard of UEFA qualifying teams, and by extension the standard of premier teams in general will, one hopes, knock at least one hole in the arguments against Joe Punter giving the ELoI a fair chance.
Far too simplistic, I'm afraid. Football on this island has bigger problems than can be solved by making sure Dungannon or Longford can't get into Europe again.

[dcfcsteve]

And why do you think the teams who got into Europe in the past 13 years got into Europe? All those factors are taken into account, and no amount of tabloid-esque hysteria on your part can alter that fact.

Those teams got into Europe because of how they did in any particular season in-isolation - not because of how they did re Euro slots over the previous 13 years. Seasons start and end - they don't compound.

Whilst your analysis would be much more relevant for a turgid league like the SPL, where the Top 2 teams differ from the Old Firm maybe only once a decade, you have to understand that you can't overlay retrospective probability analysis onto a fluid league like the Eircom league and then expect the results to say very much.

Hence, for example, why Longford can come from nowhere to defy your probability analysis and qualify for Europe in 2004, and then do the reverse by defying their greatly improving 'probability' of Euro qualification by not qualifying again since 2005, and not even having the same opportunities of qualification ongoing due to being relegated.

That's why a bus can be driven through the holes in your analysis. And your rather weak response here suggests you know it.

[Mr A]

Of course it will! Improving the average standard of UEFA qualifying teams, and by extension the standard of premier teams in general will, one hopes, knock at least one hole in the arguments against Joe Punter giving the ELoI a fair chance.

Joe Punter always has another argument though!

[pineapple stu]

Those teams got into Europe because of how they did in any particular season in-isolation - not because of how they did re Euro slots over the previous 13 years. Seasons start and end - they don't compound.

Whilst your analysis would be much more relevant for a turgid league like the SPL, where the Top 2 teams differ from the Old Firm maybe only once a decade, you have to understand that you can't overlay retrospective probability analysis onto a fluid league like the Eircom league and then expect the results to say very much.

Yawn.

You talk a lot steve, but your posts are sadly lacking in any sort of back up, mathematical or otherwise. You demonstrate a remarkable lack of understanding of the concept of probability (for example, it's perfectly possible for Longford to have a probability of qualifying for Europe of 0.23, and yet not qualify at all for the next 15 years), yet still you feel qualified to argue on it.

You then dismiss the workings as they are only really relevant to a "turgid league like the SPL, where the Top 2 teams differ from the Old Firm maybe only once a decade" which sounds curiously like the IL, a fact you ignore even though I show that Glentoran and Linfield's chances of getting into Europe must fall in an AIL, which is the very point you're trying to counter.

As a (hopefully) concluding comment in this, I am (and always have been) for an AIL, but you can't get away from the fact that European places will be lost (though I don't think it's that big a deal); an AIL with Limerick or Galway in their present forms would be a farce (though in fairness, the Limerick fans have pointed that out, and even the Galway fans must be feeling faintly embarrassed at their continuing link) and my opinions on Jim Roddy ("Let's merge with the FAI!!" "No, let's split from the FAI!!") are well known.

[seanfhear]

This subject always attracts plenty of debate on this site which must be a positive sign.The timing of the introduction of the ail would be very important.I wonder if the present economic climate will be a hindrance.It would be a pity if this and the dinosaurs held back what could be an exciting developement for irish football

[dcfcsteve]

Yawn.

You talk a lot steve, but your posts are sadly lacking in any sort of back up, mathematical or otherwise. You demonstrate a remarkable lack of understanding of the concept of probability (for example, it's perfectly possible for Longford to have a probability of qualifying for Europe of 0.23, and yet not qualify at all for the next 15 years), yet still you feel qualified to argue on it.

Just like Omagh Town's chances of getting into Europe - thoroughly interesting from an acamedical maths point of view ; thoroughly irrelevant from a reality point of view. I understand that this event has a mathematical probability of happening from your analysis. It's just laughable, as it doesn't reflect the actual reality/probability caused by their situation, and you're willing to die on the sword to defend this abstract and pointless analysis


You then dismiss the workings as they are only really relevant to a "turgid league like the SPL, where the Top 2 teams differ from the Old Firm maybe only once a decade" which sounds curiously like the IL, a fact you ignore even though I show that Glentoran and Linfield's chances of getting into Europe must fall in an AIL, which is the very point you're trying to counter.

So the Top 2 in the IL only differs from Belfast's Big Two maybe once a decade ? You may know a lot about maths text books Stu - but sadly nowhere near as much about football.

The Irish League is a relativelty turgid league - but it's not at the laughably uncompetitive standard of Scottish football quite yet. Only once in the last decade has the Top 2 in Scotland not featured the Old Firm together. Five times in the last decade the Top two in Norn Iron hasn't featured the Belfast Big Two. Way less fluid than the EL - granted. But I never claimed it wasn't (the EL is actually one of the most fluid leagues in Europe).

I'm sure you've got a probability table somewhere that swares blind that Omagh Town are in with a shout of winning next season's Irish league title. Because yet again - probability analysis does not always reflect hard cold reality.


As a (hopefully) concluding comment in this, I am (and always have been) for an AIL, but you can't get away from the fact that European places will be lost (though I don't think it's that big a deal);

This is why I can't take you seriously. You present a flawed analysis to show that club's chances of qualifying for Europe under an AIL will go down - which few people dispute, due to increased competition or those spaces - and you then leap from that to a laim that places will be lost. Just like your arguement - only on paper they will. The number of avalable places for any individual club hasn't changed- the level of numerical and actual competition to qualify for them is what has changed.

I look forward to a similarly pointless abstract mathematical analysis on every other numerical change proposed in the EL in-future. :eek:

[pineapple stu]

And still the fundamentals of probability theory escape you.

Furthermore, I proved that for the top six clubs (Glentoran, Shels, Cork, Linfield, Bohs and Portadown), European qualification must necessarily reduce in an AIL even if you assume no other club ever qualifies for Europe again. That rules out any "point" on your behalf regarding the quirk of Omagh being in there; the maths is so strong, it's already taken account of it.

[GavinZac]

And still the fundamentals of probability theory escape you.

Furthermore, I proved that for the top six clubs (Glentoran, Shels, Cork, Linfield, Bohs and Portadown), European qualification must necessarily reduce in an AIL even if you assume no other club ever qualifies for Europe again. That rules out any "point" on your behalf regarding the quirk of Omagh being in there; the maths is so strong, it's already taken account of it.

Would you give it a rest? Both of you? We know it'll be harder to qualify, because of increased competition not less places. That is an intended effect. Now can we drop the bloody stats lecture? I'm doing my best to erase that tripe from my memory as it is.

[pineapple stu]

We know it'll be harder to qualify, because of increased competition not less places.
Wrong.

But let's try let it lie.

[EalingGreen]

Technically, DCFC Steve is correct that any individual club is still competing for four European places, as before. But such an analysis is too narrow, since it ignores the increased level of competition a new league might bring.

To take the present situation. any of the top EL clubs is basically looking to secure one of 4 European places out of perhaps 6 or 7 other clubs which have a realistic chance of qualifying for Europe.

Therefore, if an AIL saw two or three "no hopers" at the bottom of the EL replaced by two or three contenders from the IL (i.e. Linfield, Glens, maybe Cliftonville), then each individual EL's chances of securing one of 4 European places MUST be reduced accordingly.

Which is only what Pineapple Stu's table is demonstrating in mathematical terms.

P.S. Any EL fan who doesn't see his European Qualification chances will be reduced in a new AIL should think of it this way. If, say, 8 EL clubs combined in a new League with Man Utd, Chelsea, Arse and L'pool, then obviously their chances (odds) would be reduced (to zero!). Obviously this is an extreme example, but the same principle applies in combining with, say, LFC, Glens, C'ville and Distillery - it's only the odds which differ.

[Bald Student]

I think the mistake being made by a lot of people in this discussion is in using mathematics, examples and various other arguments to explain something that we all understand already.

This discussion isn't based on any actual disagreement or misunderstanding.

[EalingGreen]

This discussion isn't based on any actual disagreement or misunderstanding.

Unless I misunderstand you, I have to disagree...;)