AIL 'On Long Finger'

[pineapple stu]

Actually, it's the programme. ;)

But I agree. I'd rather read something like that than another interview where a player says how happy he is to be at a club.

And to save GZ the bother of finding a scanner, here's the column -


The above is the Bulgarian second division where Sliven, a year after being relegated from this very division, have won it. How?

In 2005/06, Koneliano were promoted to the top flight. Their owner, who also owned top flight Chernomorets Burgas, changed Koneliano’s name to Chernomorets Burgas (Sofia) (imagine a team called UCD Cork) and said they’d play in the national stadium. They were docked three points in their first game for not having five youth players in the squad and picked up only one draw all season to end on -2. They then moved to Burgas, changed their name to Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria (Burgas), were denied a second flight licence and went down to the third flight, which meant Sliven kept their place in the second division. CBB never took up their third division spot after failing to sign any players.

In a similar story, there are now two Velbazhd Kyustendils, UCD’s 2000 InterToto opponents. Our ones are still in the third flight after giving up their top flight status, while second division Velbazhd Slokoshtitsa moved to neighbouring Kyustendil and took on the same name.

20 top flight games were played behind closed doors because of crowd trouble, while Belasitsa were awarded a win over Marek as one of Marek’s players had invalid medical papers. Third division Albena 97 were deducted 12 points for no-shows of their youth teams in four matches, while Septemvri (Sofia) walked off during their 23rd match and had 3-0 defeats awarded against them for the remainder of the season.

[Straightstory]

The UCD programme is the most amateurish effort I've ever seen from a League of Ireland club. It really is a joke.

[pineapple stu]

Solid argument there. I've seen plenty worse. They just have colours and pictures for the less intelligent among us to gape over in amazement and wonder.

[dcfcsteve]

Steve, your maths have been disproven as bull**** on numerous occasions. European places are an issue in this league. Can you drop that and move on?

Nonesense Stu. You've proven nothing re this issue, hence why the fish is still frying.

Increasing the level of competition for Euro slots is a different issue from reducing the number of slots available to any one indviual team. An AIL would do the former - but so would lots of other changes to each league individually (e.g. changing the size of he top division). But an AIL would not reduce the number of Euro slots available to each individual club - it would still be one from a maximum of four.

[pineapple stu]

Nonesense Stu. You've proven nothing re this issue, hence why the fish is still frying.
No, your inability to do maths has led you to not accept you're wrong. Big difference. I've used probability theory, common sense and shooting people to show you you're wrong, but if you want to continue believing you're right, there's nothing we can do. Just like people can believe the earth is flat or the sun goes around the earth, and hold onto that belief while denying all evidence to the contrary.

[Kivlehan]

Does an AIL mean there HAVE to be fewer European places? CONCACAF found a way to give the USA and Canada separate CONCACAF Champions League places despite the MLS being the top flight for both.

[pete]

The AIL might resurface in a few years but I think we will see the FAI leading it.

I think we are also getting closer to single division with regionalised clubs (aka franchises). Most people may not like that but smaller first division clubs will increasingly find it difficult to survive alongside the money of the top sides. We don't have the population & support current number of clubs & I predict will see some going to junior football. I suspect this may be unofficial FAI policy too.

[jebus]

Nonesense Stu. You've proven nothing re this issue, hence why the fish is still frying.

Increasing the level of competition for Euro slots is a different issue from reducing the number of slots available to any one indviual team. An AIL would do the former - but so would lots of other changes to each league individually (e.g. changing the size of he top division). But an AIL would not reduce the number of Euro slots available to each individual club - it would still be one from a maximum of four.

At the moment between the Republic and Northern Ireland there is a total of 8 European slots available (2 CL, 4 Uefa and 2 Intertoto), if an AIL happened there would in most probability be 4 (1 CL, 2 Uefa and 1 Intertoto), best we could hope for would be an extra Intertoto off Uefa. Since this league is supposed to be about pushing the standard here up and creating a better product we are talking about what the league has to offer as an attraction, I know what you're trying to point out, but, well it's just a ridiculous argument to be honest, junior infant maths shows we'll be worse off


Does an AIL mean there HAVE to be fewer European places? CONCACAF found a way to give the USA and Canada separate CONCACAF Champions League places despite the MLS being the top flight for both.

Simple answer is yes. If they didn't the AIL would have a total of 8 European places on offer, so if it were a ten man league that would mean you would only have to avoid relegation to get into Europe. Not to mention that that would put us on par with the Big 3 (England, Spain and Italy) in terms of places allocated, and would push us ahead of Russia, Romania and Portugal (to name but a few)

[pineapple stu]

InterToto's gone from this year; the spot goes to the UEFA. But other than that, you're spot on.

[GavinZac]

On your other tripe, we have a CPOYou have someone nominated as a "CPO". You are not participating in the FAI's allocation and half-and-half funding of an actually qualified, professional CPO, because really, whats the point?

if Sudoku is a "pathetic page filler", then you've probably got half the western world not thinking you're an idiotNot quite sure how to navigate around your negatives there but I'll just ask do you really think a mindless number arranging game has any relevance to UCD v Cork City other than taking up nine lines? I find it hilarious you're calling our award winning 50 page glossy programme (now with free pull out posters, limited stock!) unprofessional because the young one behind the counter picked up a back issue (yes, we have those, too!) instead of a current one, as if this in some way makes up for yours looking like a 6th class 'my summer holidays' project.

and chipper vans at closed shop events like sports games tend to charge more. Things cost more money up in Dublin partly because we earn more than youOh right. 'Twas my first time in the big smoke, the ould John Deere can't really handle all those roundybouts.

I challenge you to find that issue of Shoot (RIP) that you're talking about.Sorry, I didn't keep mine. You should put them up on ebay, they'll be going for a bit at the moment. Whoops! I mean whoever did the programme should.

[jebus]

InterToto's gone from this year; the spot goes to the UEFA. But other than that, you're spot on.

Had forgotten about that :)

Nice to see that the pro-AILers haven't a response for my points?

[pineapple stu]

You have someone nominated as a "CPO". You are not participating in the FAI's allocation and half-and-half funding of an actually qualified, professional CPO, because really, whats the point?
You said we "didn't bother" with one. In fact, we are very much bothering with one, to the extent that we have appointed an interim CPO immediately after our old one left (shock horror as person moves job) and will are looking for a new full time CPO.


because the young one behind the counter picked up a back issue (yes, we have those, too!) instead of a current one
Young one behind the counter, person out from with the bag full of these he picked up from the club, same difference, eh?

But sure you know what you're talking about all the time; we must all bow to your superior knowledge, even when you're talking tripe.

[GavinZac]

At the moment between the Republic and Northern Ireland there is a total of 8 European slots available (2 CL, 4 Uefa and 2 Intertoto), if an AIL happened there would in most probability be 4 (1 CL, 2 Uefa and 1 Intertoto), best we could hope for would be an extra Intertoto off Uefa. Since this league is supposed to be about pushing the standard here up and creating a better product we are talking about what the league has to offer as an attraction, I know what you're trying to point out, but, well it's just a ridiculous argument to be honest, junior infant maths shows we'll be worse offWho's we? We certainly don't have access to 8 slots. My club will be looking for one of 4 European places, the same as they have been for years. The challengers for those places will be stronger, but being afraid of a little competition isn't a very firm commercial standpoint. Clubs like Linfield or Glentoran will be in the same situation; they just face stiffer opposition for their usual 4 places. With the "dropping" of 8 qualification positions from the no longer existing FAI/IFA leagues and their replacement with 4 for the new league, there'll be a little rejigging of place allocations over all (our coefficient would probably take a hit, if they simply divide the combined points by two), but that'll probably just mean an extra qualifier for the nations currently ranked above us. Who knows, with a few good years of participatiuon we could drag ourselves into that now widened bracket (unless the freed up spots are immediately filled by yet-another-balkans-offshoot).

Simple answer is yes. If they didn't the AIL would have a total of 8 European places on offer, so if it were a ten man league that would mean you would only have to avoid relegation to get into Europe. Not to mention that that would put us on par with the Big 3 (England, Spain and Italy) in terms of places allocated, and would push us ahead of Russia, Romania and Portugal (to name but a few)Which as you can see, is a ridiculous situation and not going to happen.

[GavinZac]

You said we "didn't bother" with one. In fact, we are very much bothering with one, to the extent that we have appointed an interim CPO immediately after our old one left (shock horror as person moves job) and will are looking for a new full time CPO.Of course you appointed an interim CPO - a well run club wouldn't be doing very well if it was picking up licensing fines would they? You'd swear it was some sort of achievement to tick the basic boxes and exist.

Young one behind the counter, person out from with the bag full of these he picked up from the club, same difference, eh?Is this pinyin? :confused:

But sure you know what you're talking about all the time; we must all bow to your superior knowledge, even when you're talking tripe.Now now stu, when did this turn personal?

[pineapple stu]

So we've gone from we "don't bother" with it, to "of course" we're bothering with it. Which is it to be?

[GavinZac]

So we've gone from we "don't bother" with it, to "of course" we're bothering with it. Which is it to be?
No, you're not bothering with it. You're putting someone's name down on a sheet of paper. We and the other clubs are paying a full time qualified marketing professional to report both to club boards and to Noel Mooney. "Same difference, eh?"

[jebus]

Who's we? We certainly don't have access to 8 slots. My club will be looking for one of 4 European places, the same as they have been for years. The challengers for those places will be stronger, but being afraid of a little competition isn't a very firm commercial standpoint. Clubs like Linfield or Glentoran will be in the same situation; they just face stiffer opposition for their usual 4 places.


And if you're trying to appeal to the clubs hanging around the fringes, say Cliftonville or Sligo, and put forward this league as a step forward, and they counter that they will have less chance of gaining any of those 4 European slots then you say?

I realise supporters of Cork, Derry and Linfield may just look at this as, oh well it will be the same as before, but for all the other teams that are hanging around mid-table in their respective leagues this will be a step back for them. Even with Linfield they may not be so happy to not have that guaranteed CL spot anymore. Not to mention that if a club like Cork or Derry were to slip into mid table obscurity it would hardly help their attendance would it?

[pineapple stu]

No, you're not bothering with it. You're putting someone's name down on a sheet of paper. "Same difference, eh?"
And this somebody is doing no work, presumably?

Proof, please?

[osarusan]

You'd swear it was some sort of achievement to tick the basic boxes and exist.

It is an achievement for a club like UCD to still exist.

Lots of clubs have fallen by the wayside because they shot for the stars without a leg to stand on if they came up short.

UCD have lived within their means, and should be commended for it.

[GavinZac]

And this somebody is doing no work, presumably? Proof, please?The proof is that despite your long established existence, privileged position as literally the representatives of a constantly rotating population of 22000 young, mobile people with cash burning holes in their pockets, despite admirable adherence to the top flight and despite location as the representatives of the most affluent portion of the primate city of this country, you're scraping in less well wishers than Áine Ní Chonaill.

[Magicme]

No, you're not bothering with it. You're putting someone's name down on a sheet of paper. We and the other clubs are paying a full time qualified marketing professional to report both to club boards and to Noel Mooney. "Same difference, eh?"

Two points here, if they were just "putting someone's name down on a sheet of paper" how come UCD have had representatives at the last 2 CPO training programmes and secondly, not all are "qualified marketing professionals" but people who are from various backgrounds and were selected for the CPO roles for various reasons.

As Jebus said, UCD are actually a good example of a well run club who are working hard to increase crowds whilst working within their budgets.

[Student Mullet]

I can't believe that someone looking for fault in the UCD program picked on the 'Around the World' column, which is very good, and ignored the 'where did Aberdonian Stu eat this week?' column.

[Kivlehan]

Simple answer is yes. If they didn't the AIL would have a total of 8 European places on offer, so if it were a ten man league that would mean you would only have to avoid relegation to get into Europe. Not to mention that that would put us on par with the Big 3 (England, Spain and Italy) in terms of places allocated, and would push us ahead of Russia, Romania and Portugal (to name but a few)

I must have explained what I meant poorly as I did not intend to suggest that any two teams could grab the two champions league spots. I'll illustrate the example with a league table below:

All-Ireland Premier League Final Standings
----------------------------------------
1. Sligo Rovers (RoI CL place)*
2. Cork City (RoI UEFA Cup place)
3. Linfield (NI CL place)
4. St. Patrick's Athletic (RoI UEFA Cup place)
5. Bohemians (RoI Intertoto place)
6. Glentoran (NI UEFA Cup place)
7. Derry City (no Euro place ... or would they start counting as NI?)
8. Drogheda United
9. Cliftonville (NI UEFA Cup place)
10. Galway United

Below you would have an RoI first division and NI first division. The NI Intertoto place in this scenario would come from the champion of the NI first division.

* = Feel free to insert your own favorite club in the top spot of your own example scenario.

[pineapple stu]

Would be shocked if UEFA went with that though.

[OneRedArmy]

Even by the usual amnesiac foot.ie standards this thread surely breaks records for rehashing old arguments so soon after the last thread dissolved into stalemate.

Suggest this be added to the existing thread as the turkeys in Belfast voting against Christmas hardly qualifies as a major story.

By no means will an All Ireland League be the Holy Grail for Irish football, but the blatant defensive self-interest of many posters on this thread tells its own story.

[dcfcsteve]

At the moment between the Republic and Northern Ireland there is a total of 8 European slots available (2 CL, 4 Uefa and 2 Intertoto), if an AIL happened there would in most probability be 4 (1 CL, 2 Uefa and 1 Intertoto), best we could hope for would be an extra Intertoto off Uefa. Since this league is supposed to be about pushing the standard here up and creating a better product we are talking about what the league has to offer as an attraction, I know what you're trying to point out, but, well it's just a ridiculous argument to be honest, junior infant maths shows we'll be worse offn

You're just not getting this Jebus.

Im not talkng about the total number of Euro slots across the two leagues, for one very simpe reason - no club can qualify for more than one space.

As the EL currently stands, Limerick can strive for only one of the EL's 4 Euro slots,. The fact there are alos currently 4 Euro slots in the IL - are any other league for that matter - is irrelevant, as Limerick can only strive for one of the EL's four.

Under an AIL - Guess what ? Limerick could still only strive for one Euro slot from the combined league's four. Competiton for those slots may possibly be stiffer - an particularly in the earlier years - but loads of changes in football incrase such qualification competitveness anyway WITHIN existing leagues. Drogheda having money invested in them, for example, has increased the level of competition for Euro slots, as the club was pony up until 5 years ago and wasn't directly competing for the slots.

In summary :

Under EL : 4 Euro slots available to each individual EL club.
Under AIL :4 Euro sots available to each individual EL club.

Iin an abstract '4+4=8' fashion, slots have been lost. But in terms of the actual impact on each individual club they haven't been. You can't lose out on something you never had/weren't entitled to in the first place, and no club in Ireland has ever been entitled to more than one Euro slot from a sum total of four.

[dcfcsteve]

And if you're trying to appeal to the clubs hanging around the fringes, say Cliftonville or Sligo, and put forward this league as a step forward, and they counter that they will have less chance of gaining any of those 4 European slots then you say?

I realise supporters of Cork, Derry and Linfield may just look at this as, oh well it will be the same as before, but for all the other teams that are hanging around mid-table in their respective leagues this will be a step back for them. Even with Linfield they may not be so happy to not have that guaranteed CL spot anymore. Not to mention that if a club like Cork or Derry were to slip into mid table obscurity it would hardly help their attendance would it?

So now it's about attendances, not the magical lot Euro slots that no single team was ever able to access anyway...?

Do you want a hand with shifting those goalposts - they look heavy...?

[dcfcsteve]

No, your inability to do maths has led you to not accept you're wrong. Big difference. I've used probability theory, common sense and shooting people to show you you're wrong, but if you want to continue believing you're right, there's nothing we can do. Just like people can believe the earth is flat or the sun goes around the earth, and hold onto that belief while denying all evidence to the contrary.

Yet again - you're disproving nothing. Just snotty comments that don't tackle any of the substance of what I'm saying.

So are you suggestng that any single club in Ireland does have more than four Euro slots that they can compete for - yes or no ? :confused:

[Poor Student]

Regardless if you think being one of the only clubs not to even bother with a promotions officer, playing home games at a rugby training pitch

Gavin, that is Libertas style contortion of the truth. The club parted company with the CPO last month and the role is being filled on an interim basis by someone who has worked closed with the old CPO over the last 18 months and is involved in sports administration in UCD. I've been able to coordinate the usual volunteer work I carried out with the old CPO with the new guy, he's quite enthusiastic about the position and not just filling it for the sake of technicality.

The Bowl is the home of UCD RFC, one of the better rugby clubs in this country. It's not just a training pitch and like other clubs and our national teams it is serving as a dual rugby/soccer ground.

[pineapple stu]

Yet again - you're disproving nothing. Just snotty comments that don't tackle any of the substance of what I'm saying.

So are you suggestng that any single club in Ireland does have more than four Euro slots that they can compete for - yes or no ? :confused:
I've proven this for you before. As I recall, you came out with more and more ridiculous maths to "prove" yourself right. It was like explaining maths to a retarded chimpanzee at the time, so I don't see what's to be gained from explaining it again. If you want to give it another go, look back at the last time we had this discussion. Fortunately, everyone else can see you're talking rubbish.

[dcfcsteve]

I've proven this for you before. As I recall, you came out with more and more ridiculous maths to "prove" yourself right. It was like explaining maths to a retarded chimpanzee at the time, so I don't see what's to be gained from explaining it again. If you want to give it another go, look back at the last time we had this discussion. Fortunately, everyone else can see you're talking rubbish.

Mods : Can the above be added to the right hand side tab bar as the 'waving the white flag' smilie ?

Thanks.

[Student Mullet]

playing home games at a rugby training pitchThe Bowl is the home of UCD RFC, one of the better rugby clubs in this country. It's not just a training pitch and like other clubs and our national teams it is serving as a dual rugby/soccer ground.

The Leinster & international rugby teams do most of their training on the new astro pitch built beside the bowl. Apart from practice matches that need the full sized pitch they only use the bowl for the changing room with the ice baths and other medical facilities. So, in a sense, you're both right.

During the six nations both pitches were used. I remember going down to check which players swapped from Ireland to Leinster training after lunch. You can get the Ireland team a day early by watching this.

[Student Mullet]

Mods : Can the above be added to the right hand side tab bar as the 'waving the white flag' smilie ?

Thanks.

Mods: Can this be added to the right hand side tab bar as the 'Comical Ali declaring victory' smiley?


P.S. I suspect that these comments will be gone when I get up in the afternoon.

[dcfcsteve]

Mods: Can this be added to the right hand side tab bar as the 'Comical Ali declaring victory' smiley?

I know you tend to ask Stu to sit on your lap on UCD supporter trips - even when there's plenty of empty seats on the minibus - but you've excelled yourself with your special 'brotherly love' here SM.

[QUOTE=Student Mullet;972368P.S. I suspect that these comments will be gone when I get up in the afternoon.[/QUOTE]

I suspect most EL fans go to bed with the same hope regarding your club having disappeared by the morning..... :D

[jebus]

So now it's about attendances, not the magical lot Euro slots that no single team was ever able to access anyway...?

Do you want a hand with shifting those goalposts - they look heavy...?

It's always been about attendences Count Von Count, you just don't seem capable of basic English as well as Maths, the AIL is a pitch aimed at both supporters and clubs and the loss of European places is a minus in both aspects, not that hard to understand to be honest and I won't be explaining it again. Read my post again, slap yourself in the face a bit and come back to me if you have anything worthwhile to add

[dcfcsteve]

It's always been about attendences Count Von Count, you just don't seem capable of basic English as well as Maths, the AIL is a pitch aimed at both supporters and clubs and the loss of European places is a minus in both aspects, not that hard to understand to be honest and I won't be explaining it again. Read my post again, slap yourself in the face a bit and come back to me if you have anything worthwhile to add

An on-paper change in Euro spaces is very different from a no change in Euro opportunities. You can't lose somethign yuo were never entiteld to anyway !

If your club can access one of four Euro slots under the EL - and again, still one of four under an AIL - please explain to me what exactly they have lost ?? :rolleyes:

Again - you can't lose something you were never entitled to in the first place.

[Schumi]

Apologies for getting to this thread late but...
*bulls notion. If you can't get that right... go on, point out where I'm wrong.bull's notion.

[jebus]

An on-paper change in Euro spaces is very different from a no change in Euro opportunities. You can't lose somethign yuo were never entiteld to anyway !

If your club can access one of four Euro slots under the EL - and again, still one of four under an AIL - please explain to me what exactly they have lost ?? :rolleyes:

Again - you can't lose something you were never entitled to in the first place.

You didn't go back and re-read my point did you?

[pineapple stu]

Let's have one last go at explaining this to you. It really is quite simple, and your view really is quite wrong. Watch also how I explain this without resorting to underline, bold or :Ds to make my point.

Since 1996/97, both the LoI and the IL have had four teams in Europe each. That's 13 seasons, including this one. We can use the number of times each team has qualified for Europe in the past 13 years as a decent estimate of the probability of them getting into Europe in the coming years. That gives us -


Club Times % prob
Glentoran 12 0.92
Shels 11 0.85
Cork 10 0.77
Linfield 10 0.77
Bohs 8 0.62
Portadown 7 0.54
St Pat's 6 0.46
Cliftonville 5 0.38
Derry 4 0.31
Coleraine 4 0.31
Rovers 3 0.23
Longford 3 0.23
Drogheda 3 0.23
Glenavon 3 0.23
Crusaders 2 0.15
Omagh 2 0.15
Lisburn Dist 2 0.15
Dungannon 2 0.15
Sligo 1 0.08
Bray 1 0.08
UCD 1 0.08
Dundalk 1 0.08
Ards 1 0.08
Ballymena 1 0.08
Newry 1 0.08

This takes into account fluctuations such as you mentioned - Limerick coming from nowhere to get into Europe or Shels imploding.

The sum total of all the probabilities is 8, because there's eight Euro slots. In any given year over time, there is, for example, a 92% chance that Glentoran will be in Europe, and an 8% chance Dundalk will be in.

Now imagine we have an AIL where there's four spots going. The sum probability of the first six teams (Glentoran through Portadown) getting into Europe in any one year is 4.5. This can't be, because we only have four spots. Therefore, in order to adjust to four spots, teams will have to have their probabilities of getting into Europe reduced so that the overall sum equals four.

This, of course, is the point of the whole argument, and why your attempts to get around maths by using English are nonsense. In order for the maths to work, Glentoran's probability would reduce from 0.92 to something like 0.5 (say). That means that, instead of qualifying for Europe 92% of the time, they'd be qualifying 50% of the time.

QED.

If you want to take issue with that, I'd advise letting some international maths body know you're changing probability theory.

If you want a more straightforward way of thinking of it, imagine (as I've told you before) you're in a group of 12, and you're told that in eight months' time, four of you will be shot. Now imagine a second group, with 16 people in it who will also have four of them shot in eight months' time. You're told that, if you want, you can merge together and, of the new group, only four of you will be shot. What is your choice?

[Mr A]

The clubs that do not get picked for the new league will lose all access to European football if these proposals go through. And by the looks of it if your face doesn't fit there won't be a damn thing those clubs can do about it.

[osarusan]

We'd all better bear in mind the title of this thread - the IFA have said they are not interested in an AIL at the moment, and I can't see it going ahead without their agreement.

We're arguing about the particulars of something which is unlikely to happen at all, especially in its current format.

[GavinZac]

If you want a more straightforward way of thinking of it, imagine (as I've told you before) you're in a group of 12, and you're told that in eight months' time, four of you will be shot. Now imagine a second group, with 16 people in it who will also have four of them shot in eight months' time. You're told that, if you want, you can merge together and, of the new group, only four of you will be shot. What is your choice?
I'd imagine the new league will not have 28 teams in it and if teams are worried about better clubs moving into the league "ahead" of them, then thats fine, they can wallow in mediocrity as they do now.

[jebus]

I'd imagine the new league will not have 28 teams in it and if teams are worried about better clubs moving into the league "ahead" of them, then thats fine, they can wallow in mediocrity as they do now.

And Cork, Derry, etc. can then enjoy their 6 man league, playing each team 6 times a season is bound to put bums on seats after all

[osarusan]

And Cork, Derry, etc. can then enjoy their 6 man league, playing each team 6 times a season is bound to put bums on seats after all
But Jebus, you've forgotten the most reassuring fact, which is that as Cork fans watch a game against Bohs, a game of the same quality as now, watched by the same number of fans, they can take comfort in the fact that in another stadium, Linfield are playing a different team, and that makes everything all better.

[GavinZac]

But Jebus, you've forgotten the most reassuring fact, which is that as Cork fans watch a game against Bohs, a game of the same quality as now, watched by the same number of fans, they can take comfort in the fact that in another stadium, Linfield are playing a different team, and that makes everything all better.

But at least we won't be in the same league as UCD, which will help me sleep better at night.

[DmanDmythDledge]

If you want; most people with an interest in general football have found it an interesting column. Fortunately, I don't need to consider your opinion because you've long since shown yourself a completel twit. If you want to highlight a particular problem with it, fire away.
Most people? Are these the "couple of people in the Montrose" you've mentioned before? Any time it has been mentioned by any opposition fans on the web it has been ridiculed. It has no place in an official match programme for the Eircom League.


...if Sudoku is a "pathetic page filler", then you've probably got half the western world not thinking you're an idiot.
It's a pathetic page filler if it's in an eL programme.


Solid argument there. I've seen plenty worse. They just have colours and pictures for the less intelligent among us to gape over in amazement and wonder.
No, they actually have stuff to read that's relevant rather than read about food/films or some crap about random leagues.


On your other tripe, we have a CPO


You said we "didn't bother" with one. In fact, we are very much bothering with one, to the extent that we have appointed an interim CPO immediately after our old one left (shock horror as person moves job) and will are looking for a new full time CPO.
In this (http://foot.ie/showthread.php?p=968639#post968639) thread you say we haven't filled the CPO position and say that we would probably lose our fund from the FAI. So which one is it? Not surprising to see you change your tune on topics to suit your argument.


No, your inability to do maths has led you to not accept you're wrong. Big difference. I've used probability theory, common sense and shooting people to show you you're wrong, but if you want to continue believing you're right, there's nothing we can do. Just like people can believe the earth is flat or the sun goes around the earth, and hold onto that belief while denying all evidence to the contrary.


Let's have one last go at explaining this to you. It really is quite simple, and your view really is quite wrong. Watch also how I explain this without resorting to underline, bold or :Ds to make my point.

Since 1996/97, both the LoI and the IL have had four teams in Europe each. That's 13 seasons, including this one. We can use the number of times each team has qualified for Europe in the past 13 years as a decent estimate of the probability of them getting into Europe in the coming years. That gives us -


Club Times % prob
Glentoran 12 0.92
Shels 11 0.85
Cork 10 0.77
Linfield 10 0.77
Bohs 8 0.62
Portadown 7 0.54
St Pat's 6 0.46
Cliftonville 5 0.38
Derry 4 0.31
Coleraine 4 0.31
Rovers 3 0.23
Longford 3 0.23
Drogheda 3 0.23
Glenavon 3 0.23
Crusaders 2 0.15
Omagh 2 0.15
Lisburn Dist 2 0.15
Dungannon 2 0.15
Sligo 1 0.08
Bray 1 0.08
UCD 1 0.08
Dundalk 1 0.08
Ards 1 0.08
Ballymena 1 0.08
Newry 1 0.08This takes into account fluctuations such as you mentioned - Limerick coming from nowhere to get into Europe or Shels imploding.

The sum total of all the probabilities is 8, because there's eight Euro slots. In any given year over time, there is, for example, a 92% chance that Glentoran will be in Europe, and an 8% chance Dundalk will be in.

Now imagine we have an AIL where there's four spots going. The sum probability of the first six teams (Glentoran through Portadown) getting into Europe in any one year is 4.5. This can't be, because we only have four spots. Therefore, in order to adjust to four spots, teams will have to have their probabilities of getting into Europe reduced so that the overall sum equals four.

This, of course, is the point of the whole argument, and why your attempts to get around maths by using English are nonsense. In order for the maths to work, Glentoran's probability would reduce from 0.92 to something like 0.5 (say). That means that, instead of qualifying for Europe 92% of the time, they'd be qualifying 50% of the time.

QED.

If you want to take issue with that, I'd advise letting some international maths body know you're changing probability theory.

How long until you realise that maths/probability has nothing to do with football?

If the AIL takes place, yes there will be four less teams entering Europe. But there will be better teams competing for these places. This will lead to teams having to improve to keep hold of these places. If teams outside the European places want to break into they will have to raise their standard to a level higher than they had to before, so the standard will be raised throughout most the league, not just for the top teams.

[OneRedArmy]

The clubs that do not get picked for the new league will lose all access to European football if these proposals go through. And by the looks of it if your face doesn't fit there won't be a damn thing those clubs can do about it.Thats like saying by me not buying a lottery ticket I won't win it.

Its factually correct but ignores the likelihood of it actually happening.

[pineapple stu]

Most people? Are these the "couple of people in the Montrose" you've mentioned before? Any time it has been mentioned by any opposition fans on the web it has been ridiculed. It has no place in an official match programme for the Eircom League.


It's a pathetic page filler if it's in an eL programme.


No, they actually have stuff to read that's relevant rather than read about food/films or some crap about random leagues.




In this (http://foot.ie/showthread.php?p=968639#post968639) thread you say we haven't filled the CPO position and say that we would probably lose our fund from the FAI. So which one is it? Not surprising to see you change your tune on topics to suit your argument.




How long until you realise that maths/probability has nothing to do with football?

If the AIL takes place, yes there will be four less teams entering Europe. But there will be better teams competing for these places. This will lead to teams having to improve to keep hold of these places. If teams outside the European places want to break into they will have to raise their standard to a level higher than they had to before, so the standard will be raised throughout most the league, not just for the top teams.

Taken to PM because you clearly don't know what points you're arguing.

[osarusan]

If the AIL takes place, yes there will be four less teams entering Europe. But there will be better teams competing for these places. This will lead to teams having to improve to keep hold of these places. If teams outside the European places want to break into they will have to raise their standard to a level higher than they had to before, so the standard will be raised throughout most the league, not just for the top teams.
First of all theres no guarantee that there will even be european places available.

Secondly, what makes you think there will be "better teams" competing for these places? Whats goint to happen to make them better than they are now?

[pete]

Probability does not factor into this issue as not all teams are equal therefore Maths logic is dead.

If you increased the LOI Premier division to 22 clubs by merging the first division this does not reduce the probability of Cork City, Bohs, Pats getting a European place as Athlone, Monaghan etc... will not challenge.

Currently Dungannon may have 15% chance of European football but an AIL would reduce that to 0%.