World Cup draw

[kingdomkerry]

I think Sanchez did the best work. Before he took over they were on par with Andorra, Malta, etc.

[Metrostars]

They key to this qualifying campaign is to beat the teams seeded below us i.e. beat Cyprus, Georgia and Montenegro home and away. Do that and we'll get a playoff spot. Bulgaria and/or Italy might drop a couple of points against those teams. We should beat Bulgaria at home. Away is a different story. A draw would be a great result. Italy at home, a draw would be a good result. Away - a draw would be tremendous.

[SuperDave]

Italy are a cut above Germany. They won the WC there, after all, whereas Germany only got to the semis, despite home advantage and Klinsi's inspirational leadership. Also, in Euro2008 qualifying, they topped a much harder Group than Germany's, who only finished second. (This was primarily due to Germany dropping sloppy points in easy/dead games in a way which previous German sides hardly ever did. Whereas Italy did what was needed)

And whilst the Czechs were a better side than Bulg in Autumn 2006, I think they're now in decline, whereas Bulg may be on the up. Certainly, I wouldn't be surprised if Bulg were better than the (ageing) Czechs by the time WC2010 qualification ends.

italy were playing right up until the end and got 29 points, while Germany got 27. germany's last 4 were arguably dead games (ireland away, needed 1 point, czechs at home, lost 3-0, cyprus at home, won 4-0 and wales at home, drew 0-0). having BEEN AT THE GAME (i'm going to assume you didn't see it all) it looked like if Germany needed the win, they could have got it. That, and i think we can be sure they would have gotten 3 points off wales and at the very least one of the czechs if they needed them too. Italy's very participation in euro 2008 was in doubt up until the last minute in Scotland, by which time Germany had long since qualified and were nearly asleep, so Germany could easily have ended up with a points total of about 32-34 if they needed it.

Now I'll agree that Ukraine and Scotland were probably better opposition than Slovakia and Ireland, but your point about Germany 'only' making the semi final is a bit of a joke. Lest you forget, Grosso scored in the 117th minute or something like that, with penalties seemingly beckoning (and the Germans have a bit of a rep with penos). And a number of key Italian players retired after the world cup, most notably Francesco Totti. 'Doing what was needed' in terms of their qualifying group is kind of acknowledging that they sucked in some games, and totally ignores the fact that they were in a situation where one goal would have completely f*cked them up, much like the English situation. They were mediocre, most especially when they were OUTCLASSED by France and lost 3-1, and then played out a 0-0 borefest in Italy. They struggled at home to the Scots, too, lest we forget. They may be no 1 seeds, but they aren't that much better than the Germans. In terms of who I'd rather have after this summer's euros in an away game in September, I'd take Italy, cos if they don't win the euros, they'll be pieced off, given the usually sky-high pressure over there and if they do win, history shows they'll be easy enough to play too. They opened the last campaign with a 1-1 home draw to Lithuania, immediately after winning the world cup. Form of Champions that. For all your criticism of German form, in a game that mattered, they never messed up that abjectly.

[EalingGreen]

italy were playing right up until the end and got 29 points, while Germany got 27. germany's last 4 were arguably dead games (ireland away, needed 1 point, czechs at home, lost 3-0, cyprus at home, won 4-0 and wales at home, drew 0-0). having BEEN AT THE GAME (i'm going to assume you didn't see it all) it looked like if Germany needed the win, they could have got it. That, and i think we can be sure they would have gotten 3 points off wales and at the very least one of the czechs if they needed them too. Italy's very participation in euro 2008 was in doubt up until the last minute in Scotland, by which time Germany had long since qualified and were nearly asleep, so Germany could easily have ended up with a points total of about 32-34 if they needed it.


Italy were "playing right up until the end" because they were in a really competitive Group, with four teams all mounting a challenge.
Germany were first to qualify because they were in an uncompetitive Group, with the two Qualifiers effectively settled soon after the half way mark.
That being so, I draw a very different conclusion as the the respective merits of the two teams than you do.
When under pressure, Italy came up with the goods. Don't be deceived by "what ifs" or "nearlys" - the great Italian teams have always done it that way: if a point is needed, don't let the opposition score, if a win is needed, establish a lead and hold onto it.
Whereas great German teams of the past were always characterised by their ruthlessness. That is, they never "eased off" in so-called "dead games" in the way this German side did; it would have been quite unacceptable.



Now I'll agree that Ukraine and Scotland were probably better opposition than Slovakia and Ireland, but your point about Germany 'only' making the semi final is a bit of a joke. Lest you forget, Grosso scored in the 117th minute or something like that, with penalties seemingly beckoning (and the Germans have a bit of a rep with penos). And a number of key Italian players retired after the world cup, most notably Francesco Totti. 'Doing what was needed' in terms of their qualifying group is kind of acknowledging that they sucked in some games, and totally ignores the fact that they were in a situation where one goal would have completely f*cked them up, much like the English situation. They were mediocre, most especially when they were OUTCLASSED by France and lost 3-1, and then played out a 0-0 borefest in Italy. They struggled at home to the Scots, too, lest we forget. They may be no 1 seeds, but they aren't that much better than the Germans. In terms of who I'd rather have after this summer's euros in an away game in September, I'd take Italy, cos if they don't win the euros, they'll be pieced off, given the usually sky-high pressure over there and if they do win, history shows they'll be easy enough to play too. They opened the last campaign with a 1-1 home draw to Lithuania, immediately after winning the world cup. Form of Champions that. For all your criticism of German form, in a game that mattered, they never messed up that abjectly.

Germany have won the WC 3 times and been runners-up four times. Italy have won it 4 times an been R-U twice, so historically their record is very comparable.
Moreover, each has hosted it twice, with one victory and one semi-finals each.
The Italy team which failed in Italia 90 was deemed a poor one by Italian standards, whereas the Germans were relieved even to have made the semis in 2006, such were their low expectations.
In the end, when comparing teams, you can only go by their current/recent form. Italy topped a tough Euro Group, whereas Germany came second in a poor Group, Italy won the 2006 WC in Germany, whereas Germany failed to make the Final on home soil.
You can argue individual games, incidents even, all you like, but I know which of the two I'd rather have drawn for WC2010.


P.S. World Cup Quarter Finalists Ukraine (FIFA Ranked 29th) were better than failed-to-qualify Slovakia (50th). Scotland (14th) with 24 Euro Points in a tough Group were better than ROI (35th) on 17 Euro points in a weak Group. There is no "probably" about it.

P.P.S. A home draw to Lithuania 'the morning after the Lord Mayor's Show' is hardly "messing up abjectly", unless you completely ignore the 28 points they gained subsequently. And how would you characterise Germany's drawing 1-1 in Cyprus, when the Group was still open?

[Maroon 7]

You can argue individual games, incidents even, all you like, but I know which of the two I'd rather have drawn for WC2010.

I'm not sure why you're so keen to tediously labour this point as it makes little difference anyway. Whether we had Italy or Germany in our group both of them would almost certainly win it. Our Battle is with Bulgaria and the lower seeds in our group and if we can nick a couple of points from the top seed all well and good.

[fergalr]

They key to this qualifying campaign is to beat the teams seeded below us i.e. beat Cyprus, Georgia and Montenegro home and away.
Almost. Assuming Italy will coast the group we must get max points from the above and then its down to our head to head record v Bulgaria. Certainly doable.

[SuperDave]

Ealing Green is a WUM. Ignore him and he'll go away.

No matter about the merits of the other teams, Germany got 27 points and played four dead games (and got 5 points), Italy got 29 and played only one dead game (which they won anyway). The difference between them is minimal. And from an Irish (or northern Irish) perspective, I don't think it makes that big a difference as your chances of getting a result against either are pretty slim, either at home or away.

[SuperDave]

Almost. Assuming Italy will coast the group we must get max points from the above and then its down to our head to head record v Bulgaria. Certainly doable.

Head to head or GD? Sometimes it changes. I think FIFA tend to use GD while uefa use head to head.

[Drumcondra 69er]

P.P.S. A home draw to Lithuania 'the morning after the Lord Mayor's Show' is hardly "messing up abjectly", unless you completely ignore the 28 points they gained subsequently.

Slight change to your assertion that Italy always beat all but the best teams.

I think that result reinforces the fact that points can be gained from Italy depending on when we play them. I full expect them to do enough as they usually do but that wasn't the issue being debated was it.