It's all to play for...

[Stuttgart88]

I thought that the remaining outcomes deserved a new thread, not an addendum to the Wales vs Czech Rep. match.

The more I look at the potential outcomes the more positive it all looks.

Sure, I’m overestimating our chances of getting anything at all on the road, but who knows what’ll happen if everyone’s fit and Dolye & Keane are sharp?

The Czechs are not playing well.

Slovakia lost 3-0 at home to Czechs, 4-1 at home to Germany. Hardly a fortress!

I’m assuming the following:

Germany beats Slovakia tonight.
Czech Rep. and Slovakia both beat Cyprus & San Marino
Slovakia beats Wales
Germany beats Czech Rep. in October
Czech Rep. and Slovakia draw in November

Then, we draw in Slovakia and draw in Czech Rep. and also draw at home to Germany. Our only remaining wins are Cyprus at home, Wales away. Not an overly impressive haul.

But that still gives us 22 points, Czech Rep. 22 points and Slovakia 20.

This illustrates that (a) there’s lots to be played for and (b) if we’re lucky with other results we can still afford to drop points.

I stand by my contention that 2 away wins will be probably be required though.

Czech Rep. vs Slovakia on 17th November is a key game for us.

[beautifulrock]

Good work Stutts, we do need a new thread for this. Only one I dont agree on is the Czech/Slovakia game being a draw for the exact reason you have said in your post i.e. they have already losing heavily to both Czech and Germany. I expect Czech to win that game by 2 or 3 goals giving them an end points tally of 24. This means we will need to beat either them (that would be fantastic) or Slovakia on our eastern european tour.

[Stuttgart88]

Agreed. I was trying to show that even a bare minimum of 9 points from our 5 remaining games can still put us right up there if we're lucky with other results. Realistically we'll need at least 11 or 12 though.

[paul_oshea]

I stand by my contention that 2 away wins will be probably be required though.


this is exactly what i feel too, 1 against wales and 1 against czech is required. I agree with the rock as well, czech could end up with 24 even after drawing with us, so thats why i feel we need to beat them.

One thing I hope is that someone has worked out all these permutations for stan, cos i can see him going over to slovakia and czech still thinking if we win all our home games we are guaranteed to qualify. Honestly, i really think he would be this naive/naive of needed results.

[OwlsFan]

The trouble is we have two tough away assignments in a row. You're being very optimistic to hope we can pick up points in both while truth be told we probably need 4 points from the 2 games which won't happen.

However, hope springs eternal and occasionally miracles do happen.

[RogerMilla]

very interesting alright , if we could break our away win duck in bratislava thing would start looking very good indeed , rather than waiting for away points in cardiff

[Billsthoughts]

We have as much chance as anyone now. Altho we are weak in too many areas in my opinion. I think that when the pressure is on we wont perform. Shame as I dont think any team in this group is too amazing.

[Dr. Ogba]

Just goes to show what a poor quality group it is (apart from Germany), given that we're still in with a chance after the sh!te that we've played...

Would love to be optimistic but, lets face it, our midfield is far too poor at the moment to win away matches using an attacking 442...

[Bungle]

http://www.eleven-a-side.com/euro2008/irish_soccer_detail.asp?newsid=27984

If the Slovaks get a tonking tonight, it would be brilliant. They may be in bad shape by the time they play us and a win would put us in great shape for Prague.

Even though I would expect a Czech win against Slovakia in Prague, it's still a derby so there is a good chance that they could nick a point there. If that happens, it would put us in the driving seat, providing that we can beat the wlesh and the cypriots.

[Hibs4Ever]

I don't think the Czechs will win in Cyprus

[Bungle]

Cyprus are a very tricky team.The Germans came unstuck there and the Slovaks by all accounts were outplayed over there and were lucky to get the win.If the Czechs are not functioning then I could see them slipping up.

[Hibs4Ever]

Cyprus are a very tricky team.The Germans came unstuck there and the Slovaks by all accounts were outplayed over there and were lucky to get the win.If the Czechs are not functioning then I could see them slipping up.

Agreed. The Czechs were lucky to beat Cyprus at home, and only for Petr Cech they wouldn't have. I think Czechs will draw at best in Cyprus

[RogerMilla]

the czechs will hammer cyprus , they have had their scare and have seen how the germans struggled and we got hammered . they'll be ready , one hope i am not clinging to is that cyprus will do anythign against the czechs

[youngirish]

I see we are 150/1 in ladbrokes to win Euro 2008. I'll have a bit of that. The Czechs are 25/1 and the English are 10/1 so that proves the bookies don't have a clue over here.

[Dr. Ogba]

I see we are 150/1 in ladbrokes to win Euro 2008. I'll have a bit of that. The Czechs are 25/1 and the English are 10/1 so that proves the bookies don't have a clue over here.

:eek::eek::eek:

Since when did you become the most optimistic man on the planet???

I'll admit the Czech and English odds are really based on reputation and nothing else. In fact there's a good chance that (hopefully!) neither will even qualify but I still wouldn't go anywhere near backing us for anything with that buffoon in charge!

[youngirish]

If the Czechs are 25/1 and England are 10/1 then 150/1 represents great value for money IMO. Do I think we will win it? No we probably won't even qualify but I'd say if we do (and we've a decent chance) then we have as good chance of winning it as most of the teams in it with some notable exceptions (Italy and France spring to mind).

I'm also optimistic that if we did qualify we'd have a better team next summer than we've had this year with Stokes, Long, S Quinn, O'Dea, Mc Shane, St Ledger, Garvan, J O'Brien, S Kelly and Ireland all having another season under their belts.

[Sligo Hornet]

:eek:

Since when did you become the most optimistic man on the planet???

I'll admit the Czech and English odds are really based on reputation and nothing else. In fact there's a good chance that (hopefully!) neither will even qualify but I still wouldn't go anywhere near backing us for anything with that buffoon in charge!


Didn't Italy win the World Cup with a BUFFON?!!:D

[lionelhutz]

http://www.eleven-a-side.com/euro2008/irish_soccer_detail.asp?newsid=27984

If the Slovaks get a tonking tonight, it would be brilliant. They may be in bad shape by the time they play us and a win would put us in great shape for Prague.

Even though I would expect a Czech win against Slovakia in Prague, it's still a derby so there is a good chance that they could nick a point there. If that happens, it would put us in the driving seat, providing that we can beat the wlesh and the cypriots.

I don't agree with hoping germany hammer slovakia tonite. I believe its much better to have the possibility of getting one of two places rather than germany running away with the group. If germany did lose tonite (but i dont think they will) we would still be within touching distance of them also.

I understand your logic that slovakia mite not be up for it against us if they lose tonite, but at the same time the czechs still have to play them also so i think whatever form theyre in against us they will be the same against the czechs (good or bad).

So I'm supporting the slovakians tonite cos i believe if they win two places are up for grabs instead of one. especially as germany aren't great by any stretch

[Bungle]

I love your optimism but don't waste your money on Ireland winning mate. We've a decent chance of qualification and with the right group in a major tournament could make the quarters.

If I was going for an outside bet to win Euro 2008, I'd go for either Turkey or Croatia, who are both 25/1. Both have very powerful teams and will have massive support at their games. In Turkey's case, they'll have to qualify first. Croatia should be almost qualified if they avoid defeat to Russia tonight.

[NeilMcD]

its not a good value bet as we are not going to win it. So it could be 2000/1.

[paul_oshea]

I understand your logic that slovakia mite not be up for it against us if they lose tonite, but at the same time the czechs still have to play them also so i think whatever form theyre in against us they will be the same against the czechs (good or bad).

So I'm supporting the slovakians tonite cos i believe if they win two places are up for grabs instead of one. especially as germany aren't great by any stretch


this is exactly what i was getting to in a previous post. It means the slovaks will be as up for it against the czechs as us, plus it means if we beat germany in croker we are even on points with them ( assuming we get the same points as they do until then.....)


Just goes to show what a poor quality group it is (apart from Germany), given that we're still in with a chance after the sh!te that we've played...

again i made this point earlier, its all relative, to who has played who and where and at what stage in the qualifiers.....it was always going to be like this even when we lost to cyprus. its funny how people see things.

[Bungle]

I don't agree with hoping germany hammer slovakia tonite. I believe its much better to have the possibility of getting one of two places rather than germany running away with the group. If germany did lose tonite (but i dont think they will) we would still be within touching distance of them also.

I understand your logic that slovakia mite not be up for it against us if they lose tonite, but at the same time the czechs still have to play them also so i think whatever form theyre in against us they will be the same against the czechs (good or bad).

So I'm supporting the slovakians tonite cos i believe if they win two places are up for grabs instead of one. especially as germany aren't great by any stretch

I can see your logic but the thing is the Germans are in pole position. They've got the points and the goal difference. Far better in my opinion, for them to beat the Slovaks and reduce their morale for Bratislava. The Slovaks view the game against the Czechs as a major rivalry so they'll be up for it, regardless of their situation. Wouldn't it be great, if the Germans came to Dublin already qualified and testing out players to give them the experience of playing in a difficult environment.

Another thing is the Slovaks are a major rival of ours to be third seeds for the next world cup. It's absolutely crucial that we get out of being fourth seeds.

[youngirish]

its not a good value bet as we are not going to win it. So it could be 2000/1.

History shows that any sh*te can win the Euros once they qualify so to say we might qualify but can't win it is nonsense. As I said I really don't think we'll win it (if being honest I think we'll struggle to qualify) but we defo have a better than 150/1 chance to win it. Betting is all about getting the odds. I wouldn't consider backing us at 25/1 for example (or even 50 /1 for that matter).

If we qualify and get some good results on the way our odds will go way down.

[beautifulrock]

Another thing is the Slovaks are a major rival of ours to be third seeds for the next world cup. It's absolutely crucial that we get out of being fourth seeds.

This is the least we should expect bearing in mind how well results have gone for us in this group. Forget about catching Germany we are not going to do it. It is crucial for us that they win all their remaining games, except of course, the one against us.

[NeilMcD]

Betting is about winning the money. If you lose it matters little what odds you got.

[lionelhutz]

I can see your logic but the thing is the Germans are in pole position. They've got the points and the goal difference. Far better in my opinion, for them to beat the Slovaks and reduce their morale for Bratislava. The Slovaks view the game against the Czechs as a major rivalry so they'll be up for it, regardless of their situation. Wouldn't it be great, if the Germans came to Dublin already qualified and testing out players to give them the experience of playing in a difficult environment.

Another thing is the Slovaks are a major rival of ours to be third seeds for the next world cup. It's absolutely crucial that we get out of being fourth seeds.

Wouldn't it be even better if Germany came to Dublin 3 points ahead of us and we turned them over 2-0 to have a better head to head record and then we'd be ahead of them!! I know thats very optimistic but nothing is impossible!!

I know the Slovaks would be well up for it against the Czechs no matter what, but I think the Slovaks would be much more motivated if they still had a chance of qualifying.

And I think we should be setting our standards higher than looking for a good seeding come the next qualifying campaign. Whether third of fourth seeding, I don't believe it makes much of a difference anyway. Weren't we top seeds for the 2004 qualifiers and where did we end up? It all depends on the players you have at that time

[gufcfan]

Can we get that match here? Wouldn't mind tuning into it?

[Danny]

its on a good few stations according to this link

http://liveonsat.com/

some pubs might have it.

[KildareRed]

Our away form is shocking though. How can people think we can turn the past few away performances around. I like, everyone else would love to see us get 6 or 4 points away to Slovakia and Czech Rep but realistacally in my view I cant see us doing so.

[youngirish]

Betting is about winning the money. If you lose it matters little what odds you got.

Agreed but if you see a price that represents good odds then you should take it. Over time if you are clever enough to pick up the odds that look to represent a better return on the actual probability of the team/horse (whatever) winning then you'll win more than you lose. That's simple mathematics. It all depends how often you bet.

Remember the prices quoted by the bookies at the end of the day are in a large part set by the punter so you can get good odds if you look. That explains why England are always ridiculously low odds to win tournaments in English bookies because the mongos over here that don't have a clue about football always get the cash out for them in the World Cup and Euros thereby driving the prices low.

[Noelys Guitar]

Stan should treat the next 2 competitive games as a mini tournament. Try win both and have all squad players ready to play and not just 13 or 14. I don't care how we do against Denmark. Just gear everything towads winning those 2 games and then see how many points we can pick up. If we are ahead of the Czechs come Sept 13 then job well done.

[Sligo Hornet]

History shows that any sh*te can win the Euros once they qualify so to say we might qualify but can't win it is nonsense. As I said I really don't think we'll win it (if being honest I think we'll struggle to qualify) but we defo have a better than 150/1 chance to win it. Betting is all about getting the odds. I wouldn't consider backing us at 25/1 for example (or even 50 /1 for that matter).

If we qualify and get some good results on the way our odds will go way down.

Apart from Greece ( and at a push, Denmark )..where's the Sh*te?

[youngirish]

Apart from Greece ( and at a push, Denmark )..where's the Sh*te?

Greece and Denmark (who weren't even good enough to qualify properly) that's two winners out of the last 4 that were at best average. Is that not enough for you?

[bennocelt]

Agreed but if you see a price that represents good odds then you should take it. Over time if you are clever enough to pick up the odds that look to represent a better return on the actual probability of the team/horse (whatever) winning then you'll win more than you lose. That's simple mathematics. It all depends how often you bet.
.

the reason ireland are 150/1 to win is cause they have a one in 150 chance of qualifying, ie......no chance

Im sorry but thats not worth a bet considering ireland probably wont even get into the European Champs,

As someone said already........Croatia look good at 25/1
no idea myself though, but def not ireland

[lionelhutz]

Greece and Denmark (who weren't even good enough to qualify properly) that's two winners out of the last 4 that were at best average. Is that not enough for you?

I wouldn't exactly rate that Denmark team as Sh**e - not with the two Laudrups, Jensen who went to Arsenal, Henrik Larsen, Scmeichel........ Not bad if you ask me ;)

[Stuttgart88]

a static bet makes no sense to me, but maybe some form of spread bet if it's available e.,g. you earn 0 points if we fail to qualify, 10 points if we qualify but get eliminated in group stages, 25 pts if eliminated in last 8, 50 last 4, 75 r/up, 100 winner.

Where to make the market is the question. 3.5 pts /1.5pts anyone?

If you're a bear you'd get 1.5 times your stake if we fail to qualify: great odds in one sense, but you have the downside of losing 8.5 times your stake minimum, maybe more if the unlikely happens.

If you're a bull you're out of pocket 3 and bit times your stake if we fail to qualify but your downside is capped at this and then you have the upside, 3/1 or better to qualify.

Any more experienced betters than me here care to comment? Any traders or bookies?

Maybe a betfair job that means you could cash in, say if our odds fall from 150/1 to 100/1, if we have a good September?

[paul_oshea]

i reckon we have to be a little more realistic and i think this is;
2 draws, a win against cyprus and a win against either czech or slovakia leaves us with a very good chance in our last game against wales, meaning that we may not need a win, therefore taking pressure off us and just going to play, which when we do that we usually play well. We could win that game and end up with 11 points, that leaves us on 24 which really is all we can ask for, if we dont qualify after that then so be it but at least we will really have given it an almighty shot.

[beautifulrock]

I wouldn't exactly rate that Denmark team as Sh**e - not with the two Laudrups, Jensen who went to Arsenal, Henrik Larsen, Scmeichel........ Not bad if you ask me ;)

Yes indeed they did, but remember they did not even qualify. A well organised team who are confident of their ability and have a good run with injuries can always hope to do well. Can Ireland win in 2008, well if Greece can win it why not us.

[bwagner]

Guys on the seeding...Whats the best and worse seeding we can end up on ??

[youngirish]

Best is 2nd if we win all our remaining games I think (also depends on other results). Realistically 3rd or 4th. 3rd at present looks most likely. Correct me if I'm wrong about the 2nd though.

[Bungle]

1 (7) Germany - - - 5 13 2.600 5 13 2.600
2 (1) Netherlands 12 32 2.667 6 14 2.333 18 46 2.556
3 (8) Croatia 10 24 2.400 5 13 2.600 15 37 2.467
4 (6) Sweden 10 24 2.400 5 12 2.400 15 36 2.400
5 (11) Poland 10 24 2.400 7 16 2.286 17 40 2.353
6 (3) Portugal 12 30 2.500 6 11 1.833 18 41 2.278
7 (2) England 10 25 2.500 6 11 1.833 16 36 2.250
8 (4) Czech Rep 12 27 2.250 6 13 2.167 18 40 2.222
9 (9) Italy 10 23 2.300 5 10 2.000 15 33 2.200
10 (21) Ukraine 12 25 2.083 5 12 2.400 17 37 2.176
11 (5) France 10 20 2.000 5 12 2.400 15 32 2.133
12 (10) Turkey 12 23 1.917 5 13 2.600 17 36 2.118
13 (13) Romania 12 25 2.083 5 11 2.200 17 36 2.118
14 (15) Serbia 10 22 2.200 6 11 1.833 16 33 2.063
15 (16) Russia 12 23 1.917 5 11 2.200 17 34 2.000
16 (14) Greece 12 21 1.750 5 12 2.400 17 33 1.941
17 (12) Spain 10 20 2.000 5 9 1.800 15 29 1.933
18 (27) Israel 10 18 1.800 6 11 1.833 16 29 1.813
19 (17) Denmark 12 22 1.833 4 7 1.750 16 29 1.813
20 (18) Switzerland 10 18 1.800 - - - 10 18 1.800
21 (22) Slovakia 12 23 1.917 6 9 1.500 18 32 1.778
22 (24) Rep Ireland 10 17 1.700 7 13 1.857 17 30 1.765
23 (19) Norway 10 18 1.800 5 7 1.400 15 25 1.667
24 (20) Bulgaria 10 15 1.500 5 9 1.800 15 24 1.600
25 (28) Scotland 10 13 1.300 6 12 2.000 16 25 1.563
26 (23) Bosnia-Herz 10 16 1.600 5 7 1.400 15 23 1.533
27 (32) Finland 12 16 1.333 6 11 1.833 18 27 1.500
28 (31) Austria 10 15 1.500 - - - 10 15 1.500
29 (42) N Ireland 10 9 0.900 6 13 2.167 16 22 1.375
30 (30) Hungary 10 14 1.400 5 6 1.200 15 20 1.333
31 (25) Belgium 10 12 1.200 6 7 1.167 16 19 1.188
32 (40) Belarus 10 10 1.000 5 7 1.400 15 17 1.133
33 (26) Latvia 12 15 1.250 4 3 0.750 16 18 1.125
34 (29) Slovenia 10 12 1.200 5 4 0.800 15 16 1.067
35 (33) Estonia 12 17 1.417 5 0 0.000 17 17 1.000
36 (36) Albania 12 13 1.083 5 3 0.600 17 16 0.941
37 (34) Wales 10 8 0.800 5 6 1.200 15 14 0.933
38 (35) Lithuania 10 10 1.000 5 4 0.800 15 14 0.933
39 (39) FYR Macedonia 12 9 0.750 6 7 1.167 18 16 0.889
40 (38) Georgia 12 10 0.833 6 6 1.000 18 16 0.889
41 (45) Liechtenstein 12 8 0.667 5 3 0.600 17 11 0.647
42 (43) Cyprus 10 4 0.400 6 4 0.667 16 8 0.500
43 (41) Armenia 12 7 0.583 5 1 0.200 17 8 0.471
44 (48) Malta 10 3 0.300 5 4 0.800 15 7 0.467
45 (37) Iceland 10 4 0.400 5 3 0.600 15 7 0.467
46 (46) Azerbaijan 10 3 0.300 6 4 0.667 16 7 0.438
47 (44) Moldova 10 5 0.500 6 2 0.333 16 7 0.438
48 (50) Kazakhstan 12 1 0.083 6 5 0.833 18 6 0.333
49 (47) Andorra 12 5 0.417 5 0 0.000 17 5 0.294
50 (49) Faroe Isles 10 1 0.100 6 0 0.000 16 1 0.063
51 (51) San Marino 10 0 0.000 5 0 0.000 15 0 0.000
52 (52) Luxembourg 12 0 0.000 5 0 0.000 17 0 0.000
53 (--) Montenegro - - - - - -


Realistically, we should get third seeds. To get second seeds we'd probably have to take 7 points from Germany,Slovakia and Czech Republic + win the games against Wales and Cyprus.

[Bungle]

I don't think the above icludes the home games with Slovakia and Wales.

[Bungle]

oh wait it does!

[tetsujin1979]

This is the group table from the same point in the last set of qualifiers:

Team Pd W D L GF GA Pts
Ireland 7 3 4 0 11 4 13
Switzerland 6 3 3 0 13 4 12
Israel 7 2 5 0 10 8 11
France 6 2 4 0 5 1 10
Cyprus 6 0 1 5 4 12 1
Faroe Islands 6 0 1 5 3 17 1we still had to play France and the Swiss at home and Cyprus away
Arguably the home fixtures are easier this time around, obviously the away fixtures are far more difficult. The World Cup group is far more open than the current one. At the same point it was any 2 from 4, at the moment while Slovakia and Wales are still there or thereabouts, they have a far harder run in than we do, so realistically it's any 2 from us, the Germans or the Czechs, both of whom we still have to play.
I'd expect Germany to run away with it, leaving the away game against the Czechs as what turn out to be the decider.

[Stuttgart88]

Looking at that, what would the same twits who cited Kerr as a "miracle worker" after beating Georgia and getting 4 points from Albania say about losing out after that position?

[youngirish]

Looking at that, what would the same twits who cited Kerr as a "miracle worker" after beating Georgia and getting 4 points from Albania say about losing out after that position?

True Kerr didn't know how to win games. At least with Staunton we seem to go for it even though sometimes we get hammered because of it. Staunton has better players overall than Kerr had though IMO.

[paul_oshea]

tets that tables says all along, look at france with 10 and in 4th place, points mean nothing, its who you have played, when in the qualifying stage and where that are important, and that right there is proof.

bungle are you a schizo or are you just having a little conversation with your alter ego?

[tetsujin1979]

Looking at that, what would the same twits who cited Kerr as a "miracle worker" after beating Georgia and getting 4 points from Albania say about losing out after that position?
The table is a little misleading, France had a game in hand over us against the Faroes at home, and also had to play Cyprus at home.
The Swiss also had a game in hand - Cyprus away, and Israel had to play the Faroes twice.
A more realistic look to the table would be this (taking into account the remaining games for all teams against the Faroes and Cyprus were wins):


Israel 17
France 16
Ireland 16
Switzerland 15

[paul_oshea]

The current group is far more open than the World Cup one

how do you make that out?

stuts who were the twits? are they the other two that make up the TW*Ts?

whats wrong with the word that begins with the letter T and ends with T and has WA in the middle?

[tetsujin1979]

how do you make that out?
D'oh, got confused, post edited