It's all to play for...

[Bungle]

Nah I'm a schizo.If you worked with Zippy,George and Geoffrey you would be too.

[Stuttgart88]

stuts who were the twits? The uninformed man in the street, prompted by daytime radio idiots, who saw that we lost our first 2 deals but 3games later thought we were in pole position again. I lost count the number of times I heard people who wouldn't look twice at Robbie Keane if he was playing keepy uppy in their garden commenting on how brilliant Kerr had done to get us back into the mix & how much of a nob Mick was.


I think my point is that on the face of it it looked like we were in good shape but we had left points on the table that would have had us out of sight. It's the other way around now in a way. Despite having done our best to eliminate ourselves we're still in with a shout.

[tetsujin1979]

group D permutations table: http://tetsujin1979.googlepages.com/groupD.html
Be warned, there's a lot of assumptions, and the permutations table is huge, even after assuming the results of several games
It's not easy to read, but there you go

[eirebhoy]

I don't agree with hoping germany hammer slovakia tonite. I believe its much better to have the possibility of getting one of two places rather than germany running away with the group. If germany did lose tonite (but i dont think they will) we would still be within touching distance of them also.

I understand your logic that slovakia mite not be up for it against us if they lose tonite, but at the same time the czechs still have to play them also so i think whatever form theyre in against us they will be the same against the czechs (good or bad).

So I'm supporting the slovakians tonite cos i believe if they win two places are up for grabs instead of one. especially as germany aren't great by any stretch
I don't think there's much doubt that Germany will qualify.


Betting is about winning the money. If you lose it matters little what odds you got.
It's about finding value. If you're getting 5/4 on a flip of a coin then eventually you'll return a profit. If a team is evens to win a match but you think they've more chance of winning than not winning then you should take the evens. Anyway, I don't see much value in Ireland winning the thing. Steve Staunton winning the European championships...:eek:

Anyway, one thing I don't understand is many/most people think we've a better chance of winning in Slovakia than beating Germany. I really think we will beat Germany if we're still in with a good shout by then and have most of our players available. 95% of my bets are on home teams, for good reason. :)

[eirebhoy]

1-0 Germany in tonights game! :)

[SuperDave]

If the Czechs are 25/1 and England are 10/1 then 150/1 represents great value for money IMO. Do I think we will win it? No we probably won't even qualify but I'd say if we do (and we've a decent chance) then we have as good chance of winning it as most of the teams in it with some notable exceptions (Italy and France spring to mind).

I'm also optimistic that if we did qualify we'd have a better team next summer than we've had this year with Stokes, Long, S Quinn, O'Dea, Mc Shane, St Ledger, Garvan, J O'Brien, S Kelly and Ireland all having another season under their belts.

what represents great value for money at those odds is laying against the the english on betfair.

[SuperDave]

This is the least we should expect bearing in mind how well results have gone for us in this group. Forget about catching Germany we are not going to do it. It is crucial for us that they win all their remaining games, except of course, the one against us.


yeah, because no matter what in this group, we're virtually guaranteed to finish second. would you rather go to wales in a 24-21-18 situation, with ireland on 21, or a 21-21-21 situation? i know which one i'd pick (i know this is really unlikely, but the fact of the matter is the less points the team in third have, the easier it is to finish second)

[SuperDave]

This is the group table from the same point in the last set of qualifiers:

Team Pd W D L GF GA Pts
Ireland 7 3 4 0 11 4 13
Switzerland 6 3 3 0 13 4 12
Israel 7 2 5 0 10 8 11
France 6 2 4 0 5 1 10
Cyprus 6 0 1 5 4 12 1
Faroe Islands 6 0 1 5 3 17 1we still had to play France and the Swiss at home and Cyprus away
Arguably the home fixtures are easier this time around, obviously the away fixtures are far more difficult. The World Cup group is far more open than the current one. At the same point it was any 2 from 4, at the moment while Slovakia and Wales are still there or thereabouts, they have a far harder run in than we do, so realistically it's any 2 from us, the Germans or the Czechs, both of whom we still have to play.
I'd expect Germany to run away with it, leaving the away game against the Czechs as what turn out to be the decider.

slovakia v san marino
san marino v slovakia

hum de dum (murmurs to self)

[SuperDave]

group D permutations table: http://tetsujin1979.googlepages.com/groupD.html
Be warned, there's a lot of assumptions, and the permutations table is huge, even after assuming the results of several games
It's not easy to read, but there you go

do you get out much?

[tetsujin1979]

slovakia v san marino
san marino v slovakia

hum de dum (murmurs to self)
remaining Slovakia fixtures


Germany 06/06/07 Slovakia
Slovakia 08/09/07 Republic of Ireland
Slovakia 12/09/07 Wales
Slovakia 13/10/07 San Marino
Czech Republic 17/11/07 Slovakia
San Marino 21/11/07 Slovakia

hmmm....Germany 2-1 up at the moment
hard to call the game with ourselves
Away to the Czechs - local derby, and all that entails
After tonight, Wales will be 2 points behind with a game in hand, and still have to go to Slovakia, with revenge on their mind from the hockeying they took in Cardiff
San Marino should be a cakewalk alright, it's the game to be facing into at the end of the campaign


do you get out much?
bite me

[geysir]

So Tets, if we manage 2 away draws against Slov and the Czechs then beat Germany Wales and Cyprus we are cast iron bankers for 2nd spot.
Out of those results, even if we lose to Slovakia, we are relegated to just being red hot favs for the 2nd spot.

Better than I thought.

If we are anywhere near qualification, I think it will always take us beating Wales to nail it at the end. Instead of pigs flying maybee Stan will be able to articulate by then.

[tetsujin1979]

I think we're going to need at least 23 points
here's a quick breakdown of the green squares.
Ignoring the red squares for the time being

Points Occurs
Ireland 19 6
Ireland 20 24
Ireland 21 45
Ireland 22 59
Ireland 23 84
Ireland 24 51
Ireland 25 35
Ireland 26 36
Ireland 28 9

which gives an average of 23.08 points
Obviously the chances of qualifying with 19 points are slim, and the chances of getting 26 points or more are as slim. Going back to Stutts' original post, I don't think 22 points will be enough, I reckon 23 is the minimum we should be aiming for.

The biggest assumptions I've taken in the table is that Germany will beat the Czechs away and that Ireland will beat Cyprus, but to include them would have made the table 9 times bigger, and its tough enough to read as it is.

[BobbySands]

Heart says we'll win all before us and not just qualify but win the bloody thing. Head says lets get a new manager. We've had an absolutely miserable campaign but then we got 6 points (at home) to (crappy teams) and suddenly 5-2 in Cyprus is looked upon as a blip. We're a bit **** and need a decent manager.

[theworm2345]

its not a good value bet as we are not going to win it. So it could be 2000/1.
So drop a euro on it. Everyone was probably saying the same thing 4 years ago with Greece. Whats the worst that can happen, you lose a euro?

[macdermesser]

Betting is about winning the money. If you lose it matters little what odds you got.

ever hear of a betting exchange? Back Ireland for 10 yoyos at 150/1 and lay them for 10 at 60/1 when they qualify. Free bet with €855 riding on it.

Or lay them for 25 at 60/1 and you get a guaranteed €14.25 on any team that wins.

[lionelhutz]

Just want to clarify, if we end up tied with the Czechs, does it come down to head-to-heads ya?? And if we're still tied after that (i.e. two draws) does it come down to away goals in the two matches??

[cavan_fan]

23 means 10 points from 5 games. Would that mean we'd qualify with

3 points from Cyprus at home
3 points from Wales away
3 points from Slovaks away
1 point from Czechs away
Lose to Germany at home

Not sure what's unachievable here, the 3 points vs the Slovaks is probably the biggest ask

[beautifulrock]

This weeks results have certainly gone our way, Wales drawing with Czech and Germany beating Slovakia last night. Also no doubt the minimum points required will be 22 but possibly 23.

[cavan_fan]

Having checked the bible of tets' site!

23 in the way I posted above would do in all circs unless Czechs beat Slovaks and Cypriots which I guess is likely. If we are to beat one on czechs/Slovaks and raw with the other it would of course be best to beat Czechs!

[DeNiro]

We're in a good situation. It's in our hands at least. If we were offered this position after the Cyprus game I'm sure we would have taken it. I said months ago on this board that Staunton gets bits of luck that some of his predecessors didn't get. I'm not saying we'll definitely qualify but the momentum now seems to be with you. We usually get one good result in competitive double headers:

1999 beat Yugoslavia (h) lost Croatia (a) beat Malta (a)
2000 drew Portugal (a) beat Estonia (h)
2001 beat Iran (h) lost Iran (a)
2003 beat Georgia (a) drew Albania (a)
2004 drew France (a) beat Faroes (h)

So history suggests we should pick up 3 points from one of the games. I know of the list above only one of the wins is away but we're going to have to break that hoodoo of 20 years sometime. Maybe Staunton has the luck to do it.

[Bungle]

anyone else have a feeling that this could come down to goal difference?

[youngirish]

anyone else have a feeling that this could come down to goal difference?

No because it can't. It goes down to head to head if two teams are tied on points.

I think we are capable of beating Slovakia and Wales away. We have far better players than both. What we've lacked in the past is a cutting edge away from home upfront, relying on Keane to score all our goals for us. Now with the emergence of Doyle and a few of the other young strikers (possibly one of Long, Stokes or Sheridan will be decent next season) we should at least have some goals in the team and not have to resort to bringing Gary Doherty on to grab us a win in the last 15 mins.

I do think we'll struggle though to get anything from the Czechs away and we probably won't beat Germany at home who don't seem to be bothered whether they are playing at home or away, they get similar results in either case (possibly their away results have been better tbh). The Czechs willl struggle to beat the Cypriots though but might scrape a win. It would be nice for the Cypriots to at least get a draw out of that game. The Czechs should also beat Slovakia I reckon (who are very, very ordinary against decent opposition) but lose against Germany.

I worry though how we'll cope without Duff our best outfield player IMO.

PS
Tets why didn't you do a little drop down combo box interactive results page? It would have saved you loads of time. And everyone could have entered each of their own predicted results and see how things went. Ah well you must have had your reasons.

[NeilMcD]

No because it can't. It goes down to head to head if two teams are tied on points.

I think we are capable of beating Slovakia and Wales away. We have far better players than both. What we've lacked in the past is a cutting edge away from home upfront, relying on Keane to score all our goals for us. Now with the emergence of Doyle and a few of the other young strikers (possibly one of Long, Stokes or Sheridan will be decent next season) we should at least have some goals in the team and not have to resort to bringing Gary Doherty on to grab us a win in the last 15 mins.

I do think we'll struggle though to get anything from the Czechs away and we probably won't beat Germany at home who don't seem to be bothered whether they are playing at home or away they get similar results in either case (possibly their away results have been better tbh). The Czechs willl struggle to beat the Cypriots though but might scrape a win. It would be nice for the Cypriots to at least get a draw out of that game. They'll beat Slovakia I reckon but lose against Germany.

I worry though how we'll cope without Duff our best outfield player IMO.



I think that Daryl Murphy and Keogh are much further up the pecking order than Sheridan is and in my view are better at this stage. I will bet you that Sheridan will not be in any full Ireland squad during the Euro 2008 campaign.

[youngirish]

I think that Daryl Murphy and Keogh are much further up the pecking order than Sheridan is and in my view are better at this stage. I will bet you that Sheridan will not be in any full Ireland squad during the Euro 2008 campaign.

I think Sheridan has a good chance of playing regularly for Celtic in the latter part of the SPL season next year if you look at how quickly he's progressed this season. If this is the case he'll be looked at by Staunton. Murphy is pretty average and will more than likely struggle next season in the Premiership. As for Keogh while talented he will still be playing in the Championship by the Euros and he's quite similar to a number of our other strikers while Sheridan offers something different.

[lionelhutz]

No because it can't. It goes down to head to head if two teams are tied on points.

And if after the head to head teams are still tied (i.e. two draws between ourselves and the czech republic) does it come down to away goals??

Sorry bout repeating myself from post 66 but nobody gave me a definite answer!!

[geysir]

I think we're going to need at least 23 points
......Obviously the chances of qualifying with 19 points are slim, and the chances of getting 26 points or more are as slim. Going back to Stutts' original post, I don't think 22 points will be enough, I reckon 23 is the minimum we should be aiming for.
The biggest assumptions I've taken in the table is that Germany will beat the Czechs away and that Ireland will beat Cyprus, but to include them would have made the table 9 times bigger, and its tough enough to read as it is.
The Germans have already beaten the Czechs away.

The big game for us is the Czechs away, a draw is the minimum result needed.
Realistically you can dump those equations that include us losing there.

[Paddy Garcia]

Frankly I'm not sure where all this optimism comes from. I can'y help feeling it is misplaced, with very little evidence to suggest a revival.

The Welsh game was awful, they did not even turn up. 1-0 is nothing to feel pleased about or indeed to build any confidence on.
We did our best (especially Quinn) to give Slovakia a draw, they really should have scored twice in the last few minutes.
The win against San Marion is an embarrassment. Rather undeserved.
The home Czech game was something of a must win - yet the draw was treated like a victory.

I can't see us beating Germany at home, given our struggles against far weaker teams.

On top of that we have lost Duff for the next few months, have a weak midfield & a clueless manager. I do agree he has been lucky to date though.

[Hibs4Ever]

Frankly I'm not sure where all this optimism comes from. I can'y help feeling it is misplaced, with very little evidence to suggest a revival.

The Welsh game was awful, they did not even turn up. 1-0 is nothing to feel pleased about or indeed to build any confidence on.
We did our best (especially Quinn) to give Slovakia a draw, they really should have scored twice in the last few minutes.
The win against San Marion is an embarrassment. Rather undeserved.
The home Czech game was something of a must win - yet the draw was treated like a victory.

I can't see us beating Germany at home, given our struggles against far weaker teams.

On top of that we have lost Duff for the next few months, have a weak midfield & a clueless manager. I do agree he has been lucky to date though.



I agree with this

[Dodge]

As for Keogh while talented he will still be playing in the Championship by the Euros and he's quite similar to a number of our other strikers while Sheridan offers something different.
Never seen Sheridan so not commenting on the lad but IMO the standard in the championship is far superior to that in the SPL (Celtic/Rangers excepted) so Keogh will be playing against much tougher defences

[youngirish]

Never seen Sheridan so not commenting on the lad but IMO the standard in the championship is far superior to that in the SPL (Celtic/Rangers excepted) so Keogh will be playing against much tougher defences


I'd generally agree but I'd suggest Celtic and Rangers players are generally better quality than the majority of players playing in the Championship. Whatever the relative quality of the Championship and the SPL I'd imagine Staunton will more readily choose a player playing regularly for Celtic than for one of the Championship teams though I realise O'Dea still hasn't got a cap (McGeady was capped by Kerr quite quickly).

[NeilMcD]

I have seen Sheridan a few times and I dont think much of him to be honest but he is only a young kid so I would not be too harsh on him but I would have him way down the pecking order for Irish strikers and I feel he is a good bit down the Celtic pecking order also.

[Paddy Garcia]

And a lot further down the order after the signing of Scott McDonald and Killen. You won't see much of him next year.

[NeilMcD]

Yeah but youngirish is the greatest talent spotter on this board.

[geysir]

Frankly I'm not sure where all this optimism comes from. I can'y help feeling it is misplaced, with very little evidence to suggest a revival.

The Welsh game was awful, they did not even turn up. 1-0 is nothing to feel pleased about or indeed to build any confidence on.
We did our best (especially Quinn) to give Slovakia a draw, they really should have scored twice in the last few minutes.
The win against San Marion is an embarrassment. Rather undeserved.
The home Czech game was something of a must win - yet the draw was treated like a victory.

I can't see us beating Germany at home, given our struggles against far weaker teams.

On top of that we have lost Duff for the next few months, have a weak midfield & a clueless manager. I do agree he has been lucky to date though.
Optimism has more come from the Czech's visible evidence of falling apart as a team. They have lost a home game and dropped 2 away to Wales. That gives us a fighting chance.
That would all but dissapear if we lose to them away.
I can discriminate between the feeling of pride in performance from a patched up side drawing at home to the Czechs to the devastation at missing the real chance to beat them.

[tetsujin1979]

The Germans have already beaten the Czechs away.

The big game for us is the Czechs away, a draw is the minimum result needed.
Realistically you can dump those equations that include us losing there.
Sorry, meant Germany will beat the Czechs at home
again not too unreasonable an assumption, Germany have a 100% record at home (1-0 against us, 6-0 VS San Marino, 2-1 VS Slovakia)

[youngirish]

Yeah but youngirish is the greatest talent spotter on this board.

True I'll get back to you the end of next season when Sheridan is getting regular games for Celtic.

[cavan_fan]

Optimism has more come from the Czech's visible evidence of falling apart as a team. They have lost a home game and dropped 2 away to Wales. That gives us a fighting chance.
That would all but dissapear if we lose to them away.
I can discriminate between the feeling of pride in performance from a patched up side drawing at home to the Czechs to the devastation at missing the real chance to beat them.

Absolutely, added to the fact the Slovak's arent the force we thought, Wales are shocking and Cyprus are capable of the odd result, this has become our ideal group.

[geysir]

Germany have a 100% record at home (1-0 against us, 6-0 VS San Marino, 2-1 VS Slovakia)

Apparantly it was a comfortable enough victory against Slovakia

"after Thomas Hitzlsperger put the hosts ahead two minutes before the break the result was rarely in any doubt."
"Germany's superiority in every department shone through"

from http://www.sportinglife.com/football/live/reports/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=international_feed/07/06/06/SOCCER_Ger-Germany_Nightlead.html

[Paddy Garcia]

Optimism has more come from the Czech's visible evidence of falling apart as a team. They have lost a home game and dropped 2 away to Wales. That gives us a fighting chance.
That would all but dissapear if we lose to them away.
I can discriminate between the feeling of pride in performance from a patched up side drawing at home to the Czechs to the devastation at missing the real chance to beat them.

Confidence needs to be borne from the merits of one's own team not the weakness of others.

I agree that the Czech performances have opened a door, but that means nothing if we cannot capitalise on it. I'm saying there is little to suggest we can. For all their "falling apart" they were still good enough to get a draw away to us.

The team was patched up with the likes of Carsley. The kind of patching up which forced Stan's hand into a sensible decision.

[Paddy Garcia]

True I'll get back to you the end of next season when Sheridan is getting regular games for Celtic... reserves.

[geysir]

Confidence needs to be borne from the merits of one's own team not the weakness of others.

I agree that the Czech performances have opened a door, but that means nothing if we cannot capitalise on it. I'm saying there is little to suggest we can. For all their "falling apart" they were still good enough to get a draw away to us.

The team was patched up with the likes of Carsley. The kind of patching up which forced Stan's hand into a sensible decision.
The Czechs had beaten Slov. off the park away before they came to Dublin.
I'd say with confidence that then they hadn't dropped to the level that they are at now.
Why we are stronger than 9 months ago is in part to do with the squad now compared to then.
Doyle, Kelly, Hunt and McShane all made competitive debuts.
We are a stronger squad for that, no doubt.
Carsley is a plus.
If Given comes back?
Another reasonable possibility are the Reids.
Whatever the standard of the first 11 there has never been such an abundance of good cover for missing players.
There is no doubt in my mind that we are better, I don't know if that is good enough to get a result away to the Czechs.

[tetsujin1979]

.. reserves.
He's already playing regularly for Celtic reserves

[NeilMcD]

Yeah and I dont think he will be much further than that by this time next year to be honest.

[SuperDave]

i've done a little research and can confirm that if we finish level with the czechs having drawn away with them, it comes down to:

http://www.uefa.com/competitions/euro/format/newsid=324619.html
If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following criteria are applied to determine the rankings.
a) Higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question.
b) Superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question.
c) Higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question.
d) Higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question.
e) If, after applying criteria a) to d) to several teams, two or more teams still have an equal ranking, the criteria a) to d) will be reapplied to determine the ranking of these teams. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria f) and g) will apply.
f) Results of all group matches: 1. Superior goal difference 2. Higher number of goals scored 3. Higher number of goals scored away from home 4. Fair play conduct.
g) Drawing of lots.

so if we draw 0-0 against czechs, we'd lose at all square, 1-1 and overall gd would apply and 2-2 or more and we'd be through, unless we also finished level with slovaks, in which case ultra complications would arise.

[carloz]

Looking at the fixtures im a bit worried about the way they are panning out for the Czechs. Id be much happier if they were playing Cyprus away before the last game. Id generally expect Cyprus to get a draw particularly given the czchs dodgy form. but with them playing in the last round of matches, and Ireland not, if the Czechs know they need a win out there then id fully expect them to get it. Also with us playing Germany just before they play the Czechs, id fully expect Germany to do everything to get the win in Croke Park to guarantee top qualification for them.Should Germany get a result in Dublin id fully expect them to play some of their fringe players in the czech game to prepare them for the Euro Championships. To qualify i believe we need to win every game an allow for one slip, possibly a draw in Prague which is probably all we can hope for. God knows it is a hell of a long while since we got a decent away win........but we are due one.

[paul_oshea]

a) Higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question.
b) Superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question.
c) Higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question.

None of these differentiate between a draw. I mean if you draw how can you have scored more goalss in the match than the other person, D is the only differentiater!!!! Obviously if we win at home and they win at home by more that is the only other option.

[cavan_fan]

None of these differentiate between a draw. I mean if you draw how can you have scored more goalss in the match than the other person, D is the only differentiater!!!! Obviously if we win at home and they win at home by more that is the only other option.

They are not there for draws.

The first comes into play if despite the teams being level one team had won both matches or won and drawn.

The second applies if both teams win one match but e.g. 1-0 and 0-2

The third applies only if there are 3 teams involved.

[paul_oshea]

i know that. didnt realise the third one was for 2 teams though!

[mypost]

Germany
v Wales (a) Draw
v Us (a) Win
v Czechs (h) Win
v Cyprus (h) Win
v Wales (h) Win

Points: 32

Czechs:
v S&M (a) Win
v Us (h) Win
v Germany (a) Lose
v Slovaks (h) Win
v Cyprus (a) Win

Points: 26

Slovaks:
v Us (h) Win
v Wales (h) Win
v S &M (h) Win
v Czechs (a) Lose
v S&M (a) Win

Points: 21

Us:

v Slovaks (a) Lose
v Czechs (a) Lose
v Germany (h) Lose
v Cyprus (h) Win
v Wales (a) 0-0 Draw

Points: 17

Fairly clear-cut

The thick clueless puppet hasn't a hope imo of getting anything in the next 3 games, and beating Cyprus (with a full-strength side) at home is about as far as he is capable of getting us.

[eirebhoy]

And a lot further down the order after the signing of Scott McDonald and Killen. You won't see much of him next year.
Celtic will sign another striker on top of that this summer for the first team but it shouldn't affect Sheridan's chances. He's up against Venegoor and Killen for 1 spot in the team, simple as that really. I got Celtic TV last week so I can watch Celtic reserve football now. :) There should be a few Irish players in their reserves next year. As I said before I wouldn't underestimate Strachan's judgement of a player. It's absolutely amazing that Sheridan played for Celtic's first team within 6 months of joining the club.


Frankly I'm not sure where all this optimism comes from. I can'y help feeling it is misplaced, with very little evidence to suggest a revival.

The Welsh game was awful, they did not even turn up. 1-0 is nothing to feel pleased about or indeed to build any confidence on.

We're usually a match for anyone at home and rarely beat the mid-ranked teams convincingly.


Also with us playing Germany just before they play the Czechs, id fully expect Germany to do everything to get the win in Croke Park to guarantee top qualification for them.Should Germany get a result in Dublin id fully expect them to play some of their fringe players in the czech game to prepare them for the Euro Championships.
Well if Germany do beat us in Dublin it's almost certainly the end of our campaign anyway.