Will we be staying up next season?

[DmanDmythDledge]

Rather than continuing a discussion on UCD in a thread on the Galway forum I thought I would continue it here.

The gap between UCD and Galway isn't that big off the field. If they beat us well in attendances and demographics then they only have to beat us by a bit in every criteria. For whatever reason Galway seem to be lauded for everything by Genesis and officials. I'm not going to be smug and I'm not going to assume we can keep our noses in front of them.
The gap between UCD and Galway on the field is big- 70 points IIRC. They won't and can't score more than us in licensing which counts for 15%. Infrastructure we should score almost full marks which is 10%. There's more but I'm not bothered going into it.

[Poor Student]

They won't and can't score more than us in licensing which counts for 15%. Infrastructure we should score almost full marks which is 10%. There's more but I'm not bothered going into it.

Maybe you have a more intimate knowledge of the scoring system and can guess how we'll score with absolute certainty. I don't and I won't be making assumptions on anything.

[Conor H]

To put it simply Yes.

Although it won't be by much.The way i see it UCD will be 11th,Bray 12th and UTD 13th.
If we lose out i think it will be to Bray but only by at most 10-20 points.UCD should be in it next year but with the FAI you never know.Also none of us know how the IAG marked the off the field criteria.Everyone is making assumptions going by the on the filed calculations and then giving a rough guesstimate as to where they think their club will be placed.

[Schumi]

If marked fairly, I'd expect Bray to be in more trouble than us but like everyone else, I'm just guessing.

[pineapple stu]

The gap between UCD and Galway on the field is big- 70 points IIRC.
Bigger than that, I think. Thought it was over 100 points.

Attendances count for 70 marks (all figures to come are ballpark 'cos I don't remember exactly). There's 35 for each of two parts. The first compares your crowds to the top draw in the league - first place (Derry) gets 35 points, and everyone else loses 1 point for every 150 their attendances are lower than Derry's. If you then compare us to, say, Galway, Dundalk, Bray and Waterford, we're roughly 500 behind, which is 4 points tops. Then you weight the crowds by virtue of where you finished in the league (there's a multiplier of 1 for top half of the Premier, 1.5 for bottom half, 2 for top half of the First Division and 2.5 for bottom half of the First Division). Same rules, and we'd end up losing maybe another ten marks there.

Incidentally, we finished in sixth in the league, one place ahead of St Pat's. Pat's will get more points from this season than us anyway because they got to the Cup Final, so our total for this season alone would have been the same had we finished sixth or seventh. But, had we finished seventh, our attendances would have been increased by half and we'd haev closed the gap on the top club and so gained more points. It's so small as to make no real difference - about 2 or 3 points - but it's another example of why the system is so utterly flawed - we acually lose points by finishing higher in the league!

[jebus]

Incidentally lads I'd just like to wish UCD all the best for next week's decision, have always had a lot of time for UCD as a club and had a great time up at the cup match this summer. If you lot do drop down it will be an absolute disgrace that should be no cause of rejoicing for whatever club takes your place, but as I say, I'm keeping my fingers crossed you lot are still in the Premier next year for the sake of keeping a bit of dignity in the Eircom League at the very least

[CollegeTillIDie]

Incidentally lads I'd just like to wish UCD all the best for next week's decision, have always had a lot of time for UCD as a club and had a great time up at the cup match this summer. If you lot do drop down it will be an absolute disgrace that should be no cause of rejoicing for whatever club takes your place, but as I say, I'm keeping my fingers crossed you lot are still in the Premier next year for the sake of keeping a bit of dignity in the Eircom League at the very least

Thanks for that jebus

And I hope Limerick FC in some shape or form are in the League next year.
Limerick United hosted us in the Market's Field in our very first League game in 1979. The same opposition foisted our very worst defeat the same season in our home game. Some of our best times and worst times have occurred when we have been in the same Division as Limerick teams and it would be a shame if the Country's third largest city had no EL club in the new set up.

Limerick City beat us in the Shield final in 1983/1984.
Limerick City inflicted our only home defeat in 1984/85 when we finished 4th in the League.

We beat Limerick City on two out of three occasions when they won the First Division 1991/92 season. And we got full points from them when we won the First Division in 1994/95. And did well again in the Promotion/Relegation play off in 1997/98 and again in our promotion from the First Division in 2004 Season.

[Poor Student]

The Ireland on Sunday believes it will be the Premier IX plus Shamrock Rovers. However they only seem to have guessed at it as the article insists only 4 people currently know who the 12 are.

[mypost]

The Ireland on Sunday believes it will be the Premier IX plus Shamrock Rovers. However they only seem to have guessed at it.

I wouldn't bet on that. It's almost certain that a team(s) will be promoted and relegated from both divisions.

[jebus]

The Ireland on Sunday believes it will be the Premier IX plus Shamrock Rovers. However they only seem to have guessed at it as the article insists only 4 people currently know who the 12 are.


I think the Mirror called it the same way yesterday for what it's worth

[Conor H]

I think the Mirror called it the same way yesterday for what it's worth

Worth very little considering it's the Mirror.
I'd agree with Mypost i reckon there could may well be a promotion and relegation tomorrow.

[pineapple stu]

Do we not think that Shamrock Rovers up and Dublin City down constitutes a promotion/relegation? As indeed you could argue about Dundalk down and Waterford up.

[Louth4sam]

I have a feeling its gonna be the 11 plus rovers. Wont be the end of the world if we dont go up as we have a great chance of winning the first next year which would mean extra prize money and a chance of the setanta. It will also be easier staying up the year after next as 3 go down next season.

[mypost]

Do we not think that Shamrock Rovers up and Dublin City down constitutes a promotion/relegation?

As it only makes up a league of 12 teams, no. The system was devised before the PD lost a club. As Rovers were probably promoted before then, someone would have had to go down.

I predict 2 clubs will be relegated and 3 promoted. 4 of the the 1st Division clubs can go up. So I expect more than one will. To leave it at 11 + us would make a joke of the criteria.

[pineapple stu]

How do you make a joke of a joke?

[DmanDmythDledge]

To leave it at 11 + us would make a joke of the criteria.
How would it make a joke of the criteria if 11 teams in the Premier plus Rovers get more points than teams that are currently in the First Division?

[pineapple stu]

Oh, and mypost's definition of promotion and relegation is completely flawed. If Rovers are in the First Division this year (which they are) and in the Premier next year (which they ought to be), then they got promoted. Simple as. Ditto Waterford and Dundalk.

[mypost]

How would it make a joke of the criteria if 11 teams in the Premier plus Rovers get more points than teams that are currently in the First Division?

The league is being decided on various criteria, and if it is applied, someone is going to go up, and go down. If it's just the current 11+us, then the criteria will have been ignored and be a fix, therefore a joke.

[DmanDmythDledge]

The league is being decided on various criteria, and if it is applied, someone is going to go up, and go down. If it's just the current 11+us, then the criteria will have been ignored and be a fix, therefore a joke.
So seeing as you have knowledge of everything that goes on in all the clubs in the league, and what was submitted to the IAG, please tell everyone what the make up of the Premier should be. :rolleyes:

[Poor Student]

The league is being decided on various criteria, and if it is applied, someone is going to go up, and go down. If it's just the current 11+us, then the criteria will have been ignored and be a fix, therefore a joke.

Care to actually outline with some detail what you're on about? Please explain who in the top flight should be replaced by who in the First and taking into account the off field ratings and your understanding of the breakdown of the off the field criteria how that will be possible.

[Colie]

Don't bet on Rovers being there is all I'll say. I've heard some things (that I find hard to believe) about Rovers being told no.

[Buller]

Don't bet on Rovers being there is all I'll say. I've heard some things (that I find hard to believe) about Rovers being told no.

:eek:
*shock horror*

[pineapple stu]

mypost is clearly talking his usual brand of illogical nonsense again.

From the points tally on the on-field criteria, and the allegedly rigid structure of the off-field criteria, it would actually appear that the 11 incumbents plus Rovers are in the driving seats for the Premier. It certainly can't, by any stretch of a sane imagination, be considered a fix if the top 12 teams end up being, well, the top 12 teams.

[mypost]

From the points tally on the on-field criteria, and the allegedly rigid structure of the off-field criteria, it would actually appear that the 11 incumbents plus Rovers are in the driving seats for the Premier. It certainly can't, by any stretch of a sane imagination, be considered a fix if the top 12 teams end up being, well, the top 12 teams.

12 from 15 clubs can qualify for next season's top division, and I find it hard to believe that the current 11 are all automatically clear of Dundalk, Cobh, and Galway, purely by playing in the Premier Division in 2006. If that's the case, it will show the whole IAG assessment to be a convenient cover-up, and a waste of time.


mypost is clearly talking his usual brand of illogical nonsense again.

I expect that illogical nonsense too. :rolleyes: Just remember lads, my "illogical nonsense" when backing Derry to wallop Gretna in August. Which of course happened. :eek:

[Schumi]

I find it hard to believe that the current 11 are all automatically clear of Dundalk, Cobh, and Galway, purely by playing in the Premier Division in 2006.Not just this year. Those three clubs have been in the First Division for every year covered by the on-pitch criteria (it's over a decade since Cobh have been in the premier ffs). Whatever about Galway, there's clearly no chance of Cobh going up as they have nothing off-pitch to give them any chance of closing the on-pitch gap and Dundalk obviously don't think they have a chance given their media complaining. It's a simple question of whether Galway can get enough points off the pitch to pas either Bray or us, I don't think they will, you do. Getting it right will make neither of us Nostradamus.

[Poor Student]

mypost, you were given a chance to explain yourself, you couldn't articulate your predictions in any logical way so if you happen to be correct it will just be a random coincidence.

[BrayUnknowns]

Not just this year. Those three clubs have been in the First Division for every year covered by the on-pitch criteria (it's over a decade since Cobh have been in the premier ffs). Whatever about Galway, there's clearly no chance of Cobh going up as they have nothing off-pitch to give them any chance of closing the on-pitch gap and Dundalk obviously don't think they have a chance given their media complaining. It's a simple question of whether Galway can get enough points off the pitch to pas either Bray or us, I don't think they will, you do. Getting it right will make neither of us Nostradamus.

Have to agree with you there..... "i think" UCD are about 50 points ahead of Galway on the field and Bray are about 35 points ahead of them. I just can't see how Galway can get 35 more points than us off the field when we are one of the better run clubs in the League, and even though Galway's off the field would probably be better than UCD's i just can't see it being 50+ points better off. Cobh don't even come into the equation, it's utter nonsense to even imagine them being in the premiership if they are to stick to the rules they have set themselves.

As i've said before, IF, and it's a big IF, they stick to the rules then it should be the same 11 as last season plus Shamrock Rovers, but we all know nothing can be taking for granted in our league.

[Poor Student]

BrayUnknowns, UCD are about 110 and Bray are about 70 ahead of Galway.

[BrayUnknowns]

Well there you go, proves my point even further !

I didn't think we were that far ahead of them though, Saw the sheet a few with marks on it a few weeks back and don't recall it being that much, could be wrong though....

[pineapple stu]

I find it hard to believe that the current 11 are all automatically clear of Dundalk, Cobh, and Galway, purely by playing in the Premier Division in 2006.
Then you haven't a clue what you're talking about, as schumi outlined. Nothing new there though.

In addition, no-one's saying that they will definitely be the 12 teams, but what we are saying is that if they are the 12 selected, it won't be a fix.


As i've said before, IF, and it's a big IF, they stick to the rules then it should be the same 11 as last season plus Shamrock Rovers, but we all know nothing can be taking for granted in our league.
Poor Student's right about the points tally; it's on the Sligo forum somewhere.

However, don't forget the rules say the results are "subject to approval by the FAI", which really means they can do what they want.

[Schumi]

We're in according to Newstalk. This year's premier - Waterford + Rovers & Galway.

[pineapple stu]

Wooooooooooohooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!

Now for some abusive Galway songs...

[DmanDmythDledge]

There wasn't really any doubt, but when Bray and Galway were confirmed I started getting a bit nervous.

[Poor Student]

I breathe a sigh of relief but it's unfair and Dundalk and I still see absolutely no reason for this process.

[Schumi]

when Bray and Galway were confirmed I started getting a bit nervous.
I was sure we were gone at that stage, never thought Waterford would go down.

[pineapple stu]

Just off the phone to Shakespeare. We scored 374 out of 500 in the off-field - 774 overall - which means Galway were never going to catch us really, given we also had a 100-point start. He said he's just heading out now 'cos he couldn't have been ******ed rearranging his day!

[jebus]

Congrats on staying up lads, shame Dundalk got shafted though but there you go, I suppose we should stop moaning about it now :rolleyes:

[Poor Student]

Whatever about the process, Shakespeare, Maccer et al. deserve credit for scoring so high on the Off Field criteria and enabling the club to secure a 6th place finish this season and make us unable to be relegated. The club is being run excellent off the field and lets hope we can continue to transmit that onto the pitch. Congratulations to them.

[Student Mullet]

Congrats on staying up lads, shame Dundalk got shafted though but there you go, I suppose we should stop moaning about it now :rolleyes:No chance, just because we survived it doesn't mean it wasn't a stupid process.

[jebus]

No chance, just because we survived it doesn't mean it wasn't a stupid process.

Maybe we should pop down to the Galway Promotion Party :rolleyes: :rolleyes: and debate it? I really don't understand anyone who wasn't against this process though so I'd probably just get drunk and mumble to myself in the corner about Franchise FC :p

[Student Mullet]

Maybe we should pop down to the Galway Promotion Party :rolleyes: :rolleyes: and debate it? I really don't understand anyone who wasn't against this process though so I'd probably just get drunk and mumble to myself in the corner about Franchise FC :pSurley they're not having promotion party. See, there was no promotion and relegation, it's an entirely new league.

Galway are probably having a "being appointed to a particular division based on a points system agreed to by all parties in advance" party.

Similarly, Shams fans are updating their banners to read "Zero leagues and 24 Cups".

[mypost]

mypost, you were given a chance to explain yourself, you couldn't articulate your predictions in any logical way.

I have done so several times since the format was announced, so I don't have to explain it again.


if you happen to be correct it will just be a random coincidence.

As a club was relegated, I am satisfied that the IAG process was applied correctly, and not fudged.