Nations League B/C Promotion/Relegation Playoffs - March 2025

[Eirambler]

Confirmed now that we're going to be in this with the draw taking place in December and a two legged playoff in March. We'll play a team that finishes second in one of the C groups. The possibilities are one of the following:

C1: Most likely Slovakia, but also still a reasonable chance that it could be Sweden.

C2: Almost certain to be Kosovo.

C3: Could still be any of the four teams in this group with Belarus and Bulgaria looking slightly more likely and Luxembourg and the north looking slightly less likely.

C4: Could be any of the Faroe Islands, Latvia or Armenia, with the Faroe Islands (!) currently rated most likely to be second placed team in this group.

We'll know the four teams we can draw by early next week. Some difference between drawing the Faroes and drawing Sweden.

[yurt]

It really is luck of the draw here.

C1 and we're really up against it.

C3 and C4 are we'd be favourites.

Kosovo, I'd just blindly assume we're 60/40 favourites in that game without actually knowing much about them.

[pineapple stu]

Kosovo would fancy their chances against us I think - a speedy technical side that could cause us problems.

I wouldn't necessarily disagree with your 60/40 suggestion, but I'd rather not face a side that would fancy a go at us. Belarus or the Faroes is fine by me.

[Jolly Red Giant]

Some difference between drawing the Faroes and drawing Sweden.

I think you are underestimating the Faroes a bit - they are always capable of pulling out a result (like beating Turkey in the last Nations League).

[SkStu]

I think you are underestimating the Faroes a bit - they are always capable of pulling out a result (like beating Turkey in the last Nations League).

Imagine the reaction here if Stephen Kenny trotted out that line? :D

[pineapple stu]

I remember the reaction when Stan trotted it out about San Marino.

(That Turkey game was a dead rubber; wouldn't read too much into it. It's about their only notable result since doing the double over Greece ten years ago)

Just by way of a comparison of the (Elo) rankings of the likely candidates, as there is a big difference as Eirambler says -

Sweden 1724
Slovakia 1713
Ireland 1613
Northern Ireland 1544
Kosovo 1535
Bulgaria 1468
Belarus 1467
Armenia 1392
Latvia 1296
Faroes 1280

So the gap between us and Sweden (which feels big) is larger than the gap between us and Kosovo, but a lot smaller than the gap to the bottom five in that list. Roughly speaking, a 100 point gap equates to a 67% score (say, two wins from three). A two-legged tie should obviously favour the better team.

In Group A, Sweden host Slovakia tomorrow and probably a draw will see them top the group as they host Azerbaijan in the last round.

Kosovo travel to Romania tonight three points behind them having lost 3-0 at home; Romania have Cyprus at home if they do slip up. Kosovo can't finish third so 99% on for second.

The North/Belarus/Bulgaria is a tricky one to call as there's been 11 goals in 7 games, of which 7 were scored by the North in Windsor. If the North win at home against Belarus tonight they'll be almost assured of winning the group. Bulgaria host Belarus on Monday and maybe are slight favourites to come second.

The Faroes are second in Group D with one game left, but it's their toughest game, away to North Macedonia. Lose that, and the winner of Latvia v Armenia (if there is one) takes second. Draw it, and Latvia can still come second by beating Armenia, but Armenia can't come second by beating Latvia.

[backstothewall]

Imagine the reaction here if Stephen Kenny trotted out that line? :D

Same now. If we can't beat the Faroes HH is automatically in trouble.

[EalingGreen]

Confirmed now that we're going to be in this with the draw taking place in December and a two legged playoff in March. We'll play a team that finishes second in one of the C groups. The possibilities are one of the following:

C2: Almost certain to be Kosovo.Tonight's ROM v KOS match Abandoned, with the score 0-0. Dunno what the problem was, but there had been two (extended?) stoppages in injury time before it was called off.


C3: Could still be any of the four teams in this group with Belarus and Bulgaria looking slightly more likely and Luxembourg and the north looking slightly less likely."The north"? Macedonia? Cyprus? Korea?

Oh, you mean NI! Aye, we're looking handy enough to top the Group after tonight, but we never take anything for granted. While Bulgaria could still outdo us if they beat Belarus at home on Monday and we lose in Luxy. Otherwise, Bulgaria only need to avoid defeat to clinch second place.

Tbh, were I the south, sorry, ROI, I'd actually prefer to play Bulgaria over Belarus, since the latter are very well organised and hard-working, while not conceding many goals (one in four games before tonight).

[joey B]

Kosovo walked off because the Romanian ultras started chanting “Serbia”,Kosovo fans on twitter are calling it racism but I’m not sure how, seems a bit pathetic and soft from Kosovo tbh ……

[Insidetherock]

Kosovo should get the boot from the competition if that is what they are going to claim made them leave the pitch

On that basis, we should be claiming that we were offended by some of the English chants in Dublin, and we want those points back

It's going to be intersting seeing the draw.

You'd have to say that you'd want anyone except the 2nd in C1.. so that means we're playing Sweden or Slovakia :)

But no matter who we play, it is imperative we stay in the B Path.. it's vital for better chances of play offs in Euro's down the line, and we need to be at the Euros in 2028, if they are being played in Dublin.

Being in the play offs also means we're destined for a 4 team WC group next Autumn.. but also means that HH will have two extra friendlies to prepare at the end of the season

[pineapple stu]

The same thing happened when the sides met last year too - I think the chants were more on the line of "Serbia is Kosovo". There was plenty of general on-pitch needle throughout the match it seems.

The Kosovans were gesturing to the home crowd too - not sure which was first, and it does make a difference, but they're not fully blameless I think.

Still, wouldn't expect our players to walk off the pitch for "Ireland is in the UK" chants. Even 90 years ago when it would have had more of a sting. Feck it, the idea we'd have walked off the pitch in 93 as Billy Bingham was winding up sectarian chanting was never remotely considered.

You're going down a dangerous road if everyone can decide what's offensive to them and cause a game to be abandoned.

[Fizzer]

Oh dear, that is quite ungentlemanly from his lordship.

[Eirambler]

The good news tonight is that the highest rated potential opponent - Sweden - is now out of the picture. Latest position on potential opponents is:

C1: Confirmed as Slovakia

C2: A bit of a mess given the way the Romania v Kosovo game ended last night, but barring anything surprising such as point deductions it will be Kosovo.

C3: It now cannot be Luxembourg, will be one of Belarus, Bulgaria or the north.

C4: No games since the OP so still either Latvia, Armenia or the Faroes.

Sweden not being involved would make you a lot more optimistic overall, but Slovakia will still likely be the team we'd most want to avoid. Not that we couldn't give them a game either though.

[geysir]

An absolute lie.

As someone who was there that night, I can tell you that the incident was as follows. The dressing rooms at Windsor were in the corner, so that when he returned to the bench after half-time, he had to walk along the touchline.

As he did so, the crowd were singing "One Team in Ireland", so he smiled and started waving an arm on his way to his seat.

Not that mere facts ever stopped the bigots from making up lies, or the gullible idiots from repeating them.

Or as they said in 'The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance': “When the legend becomes fact, print the legend"

P.S. I make absolutely no apology for challenging this disgraceful slur against a decent man who is unable to defend himself, so if anyone is rolling their eyes and complaining "He's off on one again", then they should know that unless PS apologises and withdraws, the fault lies entirely with him.

You'd have to be pretty hard up to lie in the wings and wait almost forever to emerge onto an obscure thread on a mildly populated football website to be grievously offended by an erroneous comment about some event that happened 30 years ago? Then throw down your glove to Stu's feet and challenge him to a duel at dawn over the details of that night in time when the NI fans could sing about the Billy Boys being up to their knees in fenian blood with repeated gusto.

[Eirambler]

The final games in C4 are on at 2pm today, if anyone is looking for some football to watch before the Ireland game. North Macedonia are at home to the Faroes and Latvia are home to Armenia. The second placed team in this group would likely be the best possible draw outcome for us in the playoff.

[Eirambler]

Armenia and North Macedonia both leading with half an hour to go, Armenia would be the second placed team in this group if things stay the same.

[pineapple stu]

Interesting to see our recent nemeses Luxembourg and Azerbaijan both in the League C relegation play-out, having not won a game between them all campaign.

Crikey, they were bad results...

[Eirambler]

We were told at the time they were teams on the up...

Another of our old foes, Armenia, scrape into the C4 playoff spot ahead of the Faroes.

[pineapple stu]

Interesting to note after our third four-team Nations League campaign that the bottom team in our group has lost every game against sides other than us. Bulgaria got two draws against us and Armenia got a win.

We've had some tough draws in recent years, but we've been really steeped not to have been relegated so far.

[Insidetherock]

Not so much we've been steeped.. we've been playing "at our level".. remember in the one 3 team NL competition, we finished 3rd in the group and would have been relegated but for the change to 4 teams

We're at the level of 25-30th in Europe

Because we've been shockingly poor for 10 yrs now

But as much as getting hockeyed today looks bad, we're only a couple of players shy of having a pretty decent team.. unfortunately.. those players are a decent holding midfielder, and a decent creative midfielder

But that discussion is a different thread

Back to play offs..

Its absolutely imperative we stay in the B path

England were an anomaly this time, they are not a B team, but of course we get to draw them

Next time, stay in B, and none of the big beasts are lurking

Runners up in B are teams like Georgia, Albania, Greece, Austria, Wales etc..

Even the top seeds next time are the likes of Scotland, Bosnia, Isreal..

HH is beginning to put shape and structure on the team.. in 2 yrs time, this is a young team but will hopefully have improved enough to be able to mix it with those teams and give us a decent chance of qualfying for 28

We have to be in that tournament

[pineapple stu]

Not so much we've been steeped.. we've been playing "at our level".. remember in the one 3 team NL competition, we finished 3rd in the group and would have been relegated but for the change to 4 teams

We're at the level of 25-30th in Europe
Well the point is more that in each of the four-team-group Nations Leagues, we've had the worst-ranked League B team in our group. That should have helped our points tally - but actually we've been the lowest-ranked third-place team twice out of three tournaments. A 90th-minute penalty was needed to keep that from being three out of three.

There's groups in this where all the teams can take points off each other - Albania could go down on 7 points tomorrow, Romania and Turkey did go down on 7 and 6 points in prior tournaments. If we get one of those groups, we're gone, because we can't take points off everyone else.

We've been steeped not to get one of those groups in the three campaigns so far.

[ifk101]

I'd prefer Sweden to drawing Slovakia, which is unlikely now. Sweden do have exceptional players in front positions but the team itself is quite unbalanced, the quality up front is not matched in the rest of team. Slovakia's quality is more evenly spread. Not sure why previous posters are talking up Sweden and knocking Azerbaijan. Sure, Sweden have since gotten revenge, but Azerbaijan (easily) beat Sweden 3-0 this time last year ...

[Eirambler]

Well the point is more that in each of the four-team-group Nations Leagues, we've had the worst-ranked League B team in our group. That should have helped our points tally - but actually we've been the lowest-ranked third-place team twice out of three tournaments. A 90th-minute penalty was needed to keep that from being three out of three.

There's groups in this where all the teams can take points off each other - Albania could go down on 7 points tomorrow, Romania and Turkey did go down on 7 and 6 points in prior tournaments. If we get one of those groups, we're gone, because we can't take points off everyone else.

We've been steeped not to get one of those groups in the three campaigns so far.

Not sure if you're counting the current group or not, but Finland were the second seeds in this group and Greece were the supposedly bottom ranked team. It was a tough group and a large part of the reason Finland are the lowest performing team across the B division is because we have we have beaten them twice. This was not a lucky group draw for us at all. I'd say getting 6 points in this company represents overachievement as a whole as England are obviously miles ahead of everyone in the B division and Greece look like one of the strongest B division sides this time around as well.

[pineapple stu]

Not sure if you're counting the current group or not, but Finland were the second seeds in this group and Greece were the supposedly bottom ranked team.
I'm counting the current group, but I'm going off the team that finished last rather than the team that was bottom seed. In that regard, UEFA rank Finland weakest of all the League B sides (along with Montenegro, who also don't have a point)

It's a little bit predictive in a way - the team that finishes last is the team that's going to get the fewest results - but still, Finland are a poor side, as we're Bulgaria and Armenia. If we do get one of the more competitive groups next time (assuming we stay up of course), I think we'll struggle badly.

Agree six points is a decent enough return all things considered though. Would have liked to have taken something off Greece, but doing the double over Finland is a reasonable compromise. It's a bit like Homer Simpson taking on the kids at building a model power plant - we still kicked their butts.

[Stuttgart88]

Agree six points is a decent enough return all things considered though. Would have liked to have taken something off Greece, but doing the double over Finland is a reasonable compromise. It's a bit like Homer Simpson taking on the kids at building a model power plant - we still kicked their butts.I don't remember that in The Simpsons!

I think 7 points would have drawn general agreement about a good campaign. 6 is better than it might have been. Less would definitely have been a disappointment. I'm not going to extrapolate much from the second half disaster yesterday but England at home was dramatically worse than France at home, Greece home and away marginally better than Kenny's efforts. England away actually had some merit over, say, France away. And I liked how HH made a fairly radical tactical change by our standards yesterday. The capitulation had nothing to do with the McGuinnes / Collins selections etc.

[pineapple stu]

I don't remember that in The Simpsons!
It's in the Frank Grimes episode. "But this was a contest for children!" "Yeah - and Homer beat their brains out." (I've misremembered the quote in my original post actually)

I think you can add that we got marginally better as the campaign went on (well, up until the 50th minute yesterday). That's a bit of progress. There's probably a limit to how much any manager can polish this particular turd though. Young players improving in the next few years (if indeed they do) is outside the manager's control.

And if we stay up and Finland get replaced by Romania or Sweden in our next campaign, then we're really in trouble.

[pineapple stu]

That he is, Crafty. That he is.

So anyway. I see Bulgaria and the North doing the business tonight - that mercenary Isaac Price scoring again - so that means Bulgaria go in the pot as potential opponents in March. Repeats of the 2020 games would probably cause much eye-gouging, so let's hope we have improved since then...

[Eirambler]

Slovakia
Kosovo
Bulgaria
Armenia

look fairly certain to be the four possible opponents in the playoff.

[pineapple stu]

If we do go down, it looks like we could be drawn against San Marino - they're 2-1 up in Liechtenstein with 20 to go. The first time they've ever come from behind to lead in a competitive match, partly because it's also the first time they've ever scored twice in a competitive match. (They did score twice in a friendly in 2003, coming from 2-0 down to draw - again, in Liechtenstein)

Edit - 3-1 now! The San Marino fan Twitter account is going mental.

1858621366087340302

[Insidetherock]

So who from the expected 4 would we like?

Kosovo? Just shout Serbia if we're getting beat and they'll walk off

[joey B]

I’d say avoid Slovakia anyway ,Armenia probably the best draw, failed to beat the Faroes twice in the last month…

[Insidetherock]

Wouldn't fear any of them.. Wouldn't fancy any of them

The HH years start here

[Eirambler]

Slovakia the team to avoid here. We know what that means...

Our recent history of avoiding the teams we want to avoid has not been good. We had a one in five chance of drawing one of France or England when they both dropped to second seeds for the Euros qualifiers, we pulled France. We had a one in four chance of drawing England when they fell to the B division of the Nations League this time around, and of course we pulled them. A one in four chance for Slovakia this time (not on the level of England and France obviously, but the clear standout of these four).

80 to 1 would have been the overall odds on getting the worst possible draw three times in a row, let's see what happens on Friday.

[seanfhear]

Slovakia the team to avoid here. We know what that means...

Our recent history of avoiding the teams we want to avoid has not been good. We had a one in five chance of drawing one of France or England when they both dropped to second seeds for the Euros qualifiers, we pulled France. We had a one in four chance of drawing England when they fell to the B division of the Nations League this time around, and of course we pulled them. A one in four chance for Slovakia this time (not on the level of England and France obviously, but the clear standout of these four).

80 to 1 would have been the overall odds on getting the worst possible draw three times in a row, let's see what happens on Friday.Thanks for the worry !

[EAFC_rdfl]

Slovakia the team to avoid here. We know what that means...

Our recent history of avoiding the teams we want to avoid has not been good. We had a one in five chance of drawing one of France or England when they both dropped to second seeds for the Euros qualifiers, we pulled France. We had a one in four chance of drawing England when they fell to the B division of the Nations League this time around, and of course we pulled them. A one in four chance for Slovakia this time (not on the level of England and France obviously, but the clear standout of these four).

80 to 1 would have been the overall odds on getting the worst possible draw three times in a row, let's see what happens on Friday.

It's not by bad luck then, it's a payback for that cnut John Delaney which will probably take a generation or two to be paid off.

[seanfhear]

It's not by bad luck then, it's a payback for that cnut John Delaney which will probably take a generation or two to be paid off.
The wages of us allowing, sin !

[samhaydenjr]

Kosovo have about eight players at Big 5 league teams so they will be tricky. I think victory over them or Slovakia would be a sign of progress, defeat by Bulgaria or Armenia would indicate that we are still in serious trouble

[zero]

Romania awarded a 3-0 win in the walkoff game so playoff confirmed to be one of Slovakia, Bulgaria, Armenia or Kosovo, with the draw 11am ish on Friday.

[Insidetherock]

Just wondered something about the play offs and the next draws for the Nations League in two years.

The wnners of League C, go up, and take the place of the bottom team in Group B.

So, it would seem logical that these teams would then be in Pot 4 of the next Nations League draw.

But, if a runner up in C, beat a 3rd placed team in B, they will hardly leap frog the Group winners by virtue of winning a play off.

So you'd imagine for example, if Slovakia were to beat Iceland in a play off, then Romania would move up to Pot 3, as the highest ranked C team going up to B

Once again the ranking system brings into focus, that we're the bottom ranked third placed team, ranking us at 29th in the rankings..

The draw for the World Cup is going to be absolutely mental too. UEFA are saying that teams involved in play offs will be in 4 team groups, and will be more likely to be drawn against teams who are also in play offs, with the games kicking off in September. So that will be one convoluted draw when it takes place.

It also means we're pretty much assured we won't be getting England, and we can't get Norn Ireland (they're now also a 3rd seed)

[Eirambler]

The draw is largely going to be done by computer this time apparently, because there are so many permutations to work through. It's been flagged by journalists in the last few days anyway, but it has now been 100% confirmed that we'll be in a four team group and our second seed opponents will be one of the following six teams:

Greece
Hungary
Serbia
Slovakia
Turkey
Ukraine

So, assuming that the Pot 1 team will be someone who is well out of our league, and the Pot 4 team will be someone we'd hope to be better than, we'll be battling one of the six above for a playoff spot. Oddly, Slovakia are the team to avoid in our Nations League draw, but they're actually probably the best team we could get in the World Cup draw.

Our six qualifiers will all be played in Autumn 2025, so hopefully an opportunity for a good training camp with some friendlies for the squad in June when teams in other groups are playing qualifiers.

[zero]

The draw is largely going to be done by computer this time apparently, because there are so many permutations to work through. It's been flagged by journalists in the last few days anyway, but it has now been 100% confirmed that we'll be in a four team group and our second seed opponents will be one of the following six teams:

Greece
Hungary
Serbia
Slovakia
Turkey
Ukraine

So, assuming that the Pot 1 team will be someone who is well out of our league, and the Pot 4 team will be someone we'd hope to be better than, we'll be battling one of the six above for a playoff spot. Oddly, Slovakia are the team to avoid in our Nations League draw, but they're actually probably the best team we could get in the World Cup draw.

Our six qualifiers will all be played in Autumn 2025, so hopefully an opportunity for a good training camp with some friendlies for the squad in June when teams in other groups are playing qualifiers.

Please not Greece again, have had enough of them after 4 defeats in a row. They also look the strongest of those listed.

[elatedscum]

The draw is largely going to be done by computer this time apparently, because there are so many permutations to work through. It's been flagged by journalists in the last few days anyway, but it has now been 100% confirmed that we'll be in a four team group and our second seed opponents will be one of the following six teams:

Greece
Hungary
Serbia
Slovakia
Turkey
Ukraine

So, assuming that the Pot 1 team will be someone who is well out of our league, and the Pot 4 team will be someone we'd hope to be better than, we'll be battling one of the six above for a playoff spot. Oddly, Slovakia are the team to avoid in our Nations League draw, but they're actually probably the best team we could get in the World Cup draw.

Our six qualifiers will all be played in Autumn 2025, so hopefully an opportunity for a good training camp with some friendlies for the squad in June when teams in other groups are playing qualifiers.

Why is it 100% confirmed we’ll be in a 4 team group?

[Stuttgart88]

Dale Johnson says so

[Eirambler]

Why is it 100% confirmed we’ll be in a 4 team group?

FIFA apparently released their World Cup draw regulations last night/this morning which has confirmed it. Makes things a bit easier in terms of fitting in match dates as we (and the other Nations League playoff teams) can't play qualifiers in March. There will probably be teams with four qualifiers played (in the March and June windows) before we even start in September.

[elatedscum]

FIFA apparently released their World Cup draw regulations last night/this morning which has confirmed it. Makes things a bit easier in terms of fitting in match dates as we (and the other Nations League playoff teams) can't play qualifiers in March. There will probably be teams with four qualifiers played (in the March and June windows) before we even start in September.

The only way it could have happened is if we got England or Switzerland who were both not playing playoffs. It would basically have been a 14.29% chance if the first seeds were locked in, 12.5% chance if all totally randomised and a 4.47% chance if seeds were prioritised sequentially. Would have been the better path for us. It's kinda needless to lock the second and third seeds into 4 group teams but UEFA.


We now have 6 groups available to us, which will include the 4 best teams in Europe (last time was Spain, Croatia, Italy, Netherlands) and 2 other top seeds, so very likely to get a top tier team, a France, Spain, Germany type team.

In the second seeds, we can get: Ukraine, Turkey, Hungary, Serbia, Greece, Slovakia (not massive difference between the two groups of seeds) - can't get (Sweden, Wales, Poland, Romania, Norway, Czech Rep.)

[Stuttgart88]

Couldn’t we do with a really top tier 1st seed though? A team that’ll win all 6 of its matches. I can’t see any other way of sneaking second, unless we’re the only ones to nick something off the top team.

It’s basically a NL group again where there’s no debate about whether 3rd is any good or not.

[Insidetherock]

Yeah, that makes sense.

And I wouldn't completely rule out the Greeks if we got them again.. they're decent, but if we could win the play offs and get a decent camp together, we might be a bit more organised come September

I've kind of written off the WC anyway.. if you offered me guaranteed WC or Euros, I'd take the Euros.. we have to be in our home Euros

By the way.. another thing making the play offs so important

If Norn Iron are still considered "part of the bid".. then they'll be in Path B next time

Only two of the "bid Nations" get automatic qualification

England will qualify through groups, so us, Scotland, Wales.. you'd imagine one of Scotland and Wales would qualify.. leaving us in by default

But, if Norn Iron are in the mix..then as a Path B team, they'd automatically be ranked higher than us, should we drop to Path C..

Then we'd need two of Scotland, Wales, Norn Iron to qualify direct for us to pick up a default spot

March's games will be so so important for us for the next half a decade

[elatedscum]

Couldn’t we do with a really top tier 1st seed though? A team that’ll win all 6 of its matches. I can’t see any other way of sneaking second, unless we’re the only ones to nick something off the top team.

It’s basically a NL group again where there’s no debate about whether 3rd is any good or not.


Maybe, it's all low probability because you have to ultimately end up in the Top 16 in Europe, which given our current plight is very difficult.

But I think you'd definitely hope for a weak first seed like Austria. Imagine you get Austria and Slovakia and the Faroes - you've got an outside chance to win the group which qualifies you directly and I don't think you're any less likely to come second. If you get say Germany and Slovakia and you come second - then you're in a quarter final, let's imagine with Poland and then a final against Ukraine (so even if we come second, we've only got max a 20% chance of qualifying for the world cup. It drops dramatically if a second seed underperforms (think France going to the playoffs in 2009)

Once again, mapping it out. Group winners:

Austria 55%
Slovakia 23%
Ireland 22%
-
Germany 96%
Slovakia 2%
Ireland 2%

and chance of assuming the favourites win, then the chance is still about 50-50 between you and Slovakia.

So qualification likelihoods in Scenario A is about 32% and in Scenario B is 12%.

You could argue whether a bad second seed is more important that a bad first seed - but i think both second seed pools are pretty equal, so I don't think our chances of getting a bad team really change much depending on which group (2 strong teams, 2 average teams, 2 weak teams - maybe the 5 team group is a little weaker)

[pineapple stu]

Bulgaria it is.

Have to be happy with that - albeit we drew twice with them in 2020, so it certainly won't be a gimme.

[joey B]

Bloody hell Bulgaria lost 5-0 to the North last month,would be a disappointment to lose over 2 legs to them you’d feel……