Greece v Republic of Ireland - Sunday, 13th October 2024 - UEFA Nations League

[Insidetherock]

Man, I am just looking at the qualification process for the World Cup qualifiers, and it looks like it's going to be an absolutely mental draw.

Assume we finish third in the group, then we have a relegation play off in March.

This means:

1. We go into a 4 team group

2. The guidelines seem to suggest that there will almost be a two tier draw, with teams who are in action in March, going into 4 team groups, and effectively getting drawn against each other, to start off qualifying in September next year

3. World Cup qualifying now will become a "mini" Nations League next Autumn

[Eirambler]

Yes that's pretty much right. I think it's still possible to be in a five team group if in a Nations League playoff, but unlikely. We probably also won't know who the Pot 1 team is at the time of the draw, if it's a team in the Nations League A group knockout phase it will be the winner or.loser of a quarter final that won't be played until a few months after the draw.

This is not meant to be a one off, it's the plan for all tournaments going forward. From our point of view we could really do with getting back into the top 24 in the rankings as soon as possible, so that we're second seeds in future groups. Would make future qualifications a lot easier.

[Insidetherock]

Yes that's pretty much right. I think it's still possible to be in a five team group if in a Nations League playoff, but unlikely. We probably also won't know who the Pot 1 team is at the time of the draw, if it's a team in the Nations League A group knockout phase it will be the winner or.loser of a quarter final that won't be played until a few months after the draw.

This is not meant to be a one off, it's the plan for all tournaments going forward. From our point of view we could really do with getting back into the top 24 in the rankings as soon as possible, so that we're second seeds in future groups. Would make future qualifications a lot easier.

That is true, but then I suppose we're always of the opinion, the higher the ranking, the hopefully better the draw.. but you could still get a stinker like we did last time with France, Holland, Greece..

To get back to top 24 we have to

a. Finish at least third this time
b. Win the play off in March
c. Manage to get second in the next Nations League group (all 16 A teams, plus top two in each NL group make up the top 24)

We need a little bit of luck really,

Scotland, Isreal, Bosnia and Switzerland are coming back down (3 of the 4 you'd expect, with only Serbia staying up)

Would prefer England to go up instead of Greece to be honest.. there's still going to be a lot of dangerous teams floating around in Path B next time..

Then again, hopefully HH will have melded a much better team come NL 26

[Eirambler]

I think England will probably go up through the playoff if they don't go up automatically. If Greece don't end up winning this group they'll go into the promotion playoffs, meaning we'll be a lot more likely to draw them in our World Cup group. Which I think we can all agree we'd rather avoid at this stage!

[EalingGreen]

Would love to draw the North. Add an extra layer of spice to the playoff.Can't speak for ROI fans (obv), and I'm sure your motivation is for all the right reasons.

But for this NI fan, I'd rather draw just about anyone else, since we really don't need all the sh1t which such games attract (from both sides, I might add).

[seanfhear]

Can't speak for ROI fans (obv), and I'm sure your motivation is for all the right reasons.

But for this NI fan, I'd rather draw just about anyone else, since we really don't need all the sh1t which such games attract (from both sides, I might add).
Great win for Northern Ireland the other night ~ ~ Is it a one off, or is Michael O'Neill building something like he did the last time ?

[elatedscum]

We are also highly likely to be in a four team group if we are in a relegation playoff in March.

how would that work?

1. 12/12 first seeds are playing Nations League games (8 quarter finalists + 4 playoff A/B)
2. 4/12 second seeds are playing (playoff to A/B)
3. 4/12 third seeds are playing (playoff to B/C)
4. 6/12 fourth seeds are playing (4 playoff to B/C, 2 to C/D

[~YTM~]

how would that work?

1. 12/12 first seeds are playing Nations League games (8 quarter finalists + 4 playoff A/B)
2. 4/12 second seeds are playing (playoff to A/B)
3. 4/12 third seeds are playing (playoff to B/C)
4. 6/12 fourth seeds are playing (4 playoff to B/C, 2 to C/D

Taken from wiki. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA)

Seeding method

Five-team groups can only contain one team participating in Nations League matches in March 2025, allowing these teams to have two free matchdays in World Cup qualifying to be scheduled during March. The remaining four teams in their group will play among themselves during this window. Additionally, as the four quarter-final winners will compete in the 2025 UEFA Nations League Finals in June, they cannot begin World Cup qualifying until September and must therefore be drawn into four-team groups.

Given these conditions, Pot 1 will contain the eight Nations League quarter-finalists, regardless of their position in the FIFA Men's World Ranking of November 2024. The quarter-finalists will be represented by placeholders in the draw, denoting the winners and losers of each quarter-final pairing.[note 1] The four remaining teams in Pot 1 will be the next best-ranked teams in the FIFA Men's World Ranking of November 2024. In principle, the remaining teams will be allocated to Pots 2 to 5 based on the FIFA Men's World Ranking. However, adjustments to Pots 2 to 5 may be required depending on the number of teams needing the March 2025 window for the Nations League promotion/relegation play-offs.

Should a given draw pot include more Nations League play-off teams than the maximum number of qualifying groups able to contain such teams, a pot adjustment will be made. Such an adjustment will follow these principles:

A pot swap will be made between the lowest-ranked Nations League play-off participant of the pot in question and the highest-ranked compatible team of the lower pot.

The same procedure applies if an additional swap is required in the same pot or another pot.

This seeding method differs from previous cycles, as all World Cup qualifying group draws since 2010 have been seeded based solely on the FIFA Men's World Ranking.

Draw procedure:

The draw will start with Pot 1 and complete with Pot 5. A team will be drawn and assigned to the first available group (based on draw conditions) in alphabetical order. Each five-team group will contain one team from each of the five pots, while each four-team group will contain one team from each of the first four pots.

The following restrictions will be applied with computer assistance:

Competition-related reasons:
2025 UEFA Nations League Finals (identified as the winners of quarter-finals 1–4) will be guaranteed to be drawn into four-team groups (Groups A–F).

Depending on the pot distribution of Nations League play-off teams, Pot 1 teams not involved in Nations League matches in March may need to be drawn into five-team groups (Groups G–L).

Nations League play-off teams from Pots 2 to 4 are prioritised for allocation to four-team groups (Groups A–F).[note 3] If a play-off team is in Pot 5, they will be drawn into a five-team group (Groups G–L) capable of accommodating such a team.

Additionally, teams not involved in Nations League matches in March from Pots 2 to 4 may be required to be drawn into five-team groups (Groups G–L) to ensure a sufficient number of groups are available to contain Nations League play-off teams from the same or subsequent pots.

[pineapple stu]

This is what wiki says - though to be honest I can't really make out what it's saying either. Talk of the next-best ranked teams in the FIFA rankings in pot 1 - is that teams who haven't made the playoffs?


Five-team groups can only contain one team participating in Nations League matches in March 2025, allowing these teams to have two free matchdays in World Cup qualifying to be scheduled during March. The remaining four teams in their group will play among themselves during this window. Additionally, as the four quarter-final winners will compete in the 2025 UEFA Nations League Finals in June, they cannot begin World Cup qualifying until September and must therefore be drawn into four-team groups.

Given these conditions, Pot 1 will contain the eight Nations League quarter-finalists, regardless of their position in the FIFA Men's World Ranking of November 2024. The quarter-finalists will be represented by placeholders in the draw, denoting the winners and losers of each quarter-final pairing.[note 1] The four remaining teams in Pot 1 will be the next best-ranked teams in the FIFA Men's World Ranking of November 2024. In principle, the remaining teams will be allocated to Pots 2 to 5 based on the FIFA Men's World Ranking. However, adjustments to Pots 2 to 5 may be required depending on the number of teams needing the March 2025 window for the Nations League promotion/relegation play-offs.

Should a given draw pot include more Nations League play-off teams than the maximum number of qualifying groups able to contain such teams, a pot adjustment will be made. Such an adjustment will follow these principles:

A pot swap will be made between the lowest-ranked Nations League play-off participant of the pot in question and the highest-ranked compatible team of the lower pot.
The same procedure applies if an additional swap is required in the same pot or another pot.
This seeding method differs from previous cycles, as all World Cup qualifying group draws since 2010 have been seeded based solely on the FIFA Men's World Ranking.

[~YTM~]

Yeah so England for example will take one of those four pot 1 places for teams that didn't make the QFs. But then England could end up finishing second and thrown into a promotion/relegation playoff. Don't think Uefa have a clue what they're doing anymore with all these changes.

[EalingGreen]

Great win for Northern Ireland the other night ~ ~ Is it a one off, or is Michael O'Neill building something like he did the last time ?Building, definitely.

That said, there'll be other mishaps along the way, since the team is so young, and therefore not yet experienced enough to cope with everything they might come across. An example was the previous game v Belarus, which they drew 0-0. They absolutely battered them in the first half, with their gk making at least half a dozen top saves - goodness knows how it was goalless. But for the second half their manager made some tactical changes, then used all his subs, and our boys ran out of ideas (and energy?).

Similarly, that game was played in a neutral venue, behind closed doors, meaning they weren't able to capitalise on the boost they get when playing at home.

None of which is to say that we'll qualify for tournaments etc, if only because of our age-old search for "The Next Healy". But I'm very confident that we'll prove a lot more competitive and hard to beat than previously.

[seanfhear]

Building, definitely.

That said, there'll be other mishaps along the way, since the team is so young, and therefore not yet experienced enough to cope with everything they might come across. An example was the previous game v Belarus, which they drew 0-0. They absolutely battered them in the first half, with their gk making at least half a dozen top saves - goodness knows how it was goalless. But for the second half their manager made some tactical changes, then used all his subs, and our boys ran out of ideas (and energy?).

Similarly, that game was played in a neutral venue, behind closed doors, meaning they weren't able to capitalise on the boost they get when playing at home.

None of which is to say that we'll qualify for tournaments etc, if only because of our age-old search for "The Next Healy". But I'm very confident that we'll prove a lot more competitive and hard to beat than previously.
We might have to borrow that Michael O'Neill fella some-time in the future ! (wink)

[EalingGreen]

We might have to borrow that Michael O'Neill fella some-time in the future ! (wink)I thought you'd had enough of our O'Neills after that Martin fella?

Though you could have Michelle, if you like. ;)

[tetsujin1979]

Thread locked and archived