What we need to happen

[Dan K]

Right, off the top of my head in order for us to get a play off place, we need:

1) To beat Cyprus by as many goals as we can possibly muster, but at least 2.
2) Beat the Swiss by at least 2.
3) The French to beat the Swiss.

If 3) doesn't happen, we need to hope we put a shed load (at least 3 without reply) past the Swiss.

Correct?

Acheivable?

I 'kin hope so.

[Jon'o]

its not about goal diffrence is it though but the results against the tied teams?? correct me if im wrong or mildly drunk????

[concanta]

the way i understand it is if we win our last 2 games
we get playoff place as we would of beaten the swiss and are ahead of israel
what happens if the swiss beat france 1 0 and then we beat the swiss 2 0
who wins group - the results of the games do not apply
surely it is goal difference in games between the top 4
and that would have us on top....i know i am clutching at straws and may be incorrecy

[Dan K]

its not about goal diffrence is it though but the results against the tied teams?? correct me if im wrong or mildly drunk????

Ah ********.

Forgot about that.

[davey]

feelin v pessimistic atm, so switzerland at home looks like a massive hurdle. I'll always keep hoping but I think we can kiss goodbye to Germany. Even if we can win our last 2 games - I can't see us winning play-off

[Dan K]

I really need to see the rules to get my head around this.

Still, if you're right, then I feel much better than I did an hour ago!

[liam88]

What's the significance of ghow many goals we put in past Switzerland (at least 2) is it because of goal difference or what?

[Tram_14]

"England lost to a team ranked lower than Rwanda and Lebanon".


He HE HE HE HE HE HE, Oh how it helps the pain, Morphine to my soul. I Love banana skins.

[Colm55]

Lads, as sad as it has made me tonight, we have achieved nothing in this pathetic group. We don't deserve to qualify. We aren't going to Germany. Time to get over it. But at least we lost to former (recent) World Champions. England lost to a team ranked lower than Rwanda and Lebanon.

Tough paddy, i agree, We shackled their no.1 playmaker and henry got one shot on goal, (and scored) and we could not produce a performance to win the game, failing to hold on to the (this is tough half jarred) first half displays against isreal, and not dispatch the french garcons tonight, i whole heatedly agree that we do not deserve to go, en ce moment, hopefully we can redeem ourselves in the remaining matcheas. but only time will tell.....

[gspain]

2 wins is not an unrealistic target and would almost certainly guarantee us the playoff.

Cyprus away will be tricky now without Keane, Reid and Morrison. However we still should have enough to win there. We owe the Swiss big time.

If Switzerland beat France then we have a target to win the group. A 1-0 Swiss result is of course the best if unlikely.

Anythign can happen in the playoffs we could get Slovakia, Bosnia or England and have a fantastic chance of going through. we could of course get the Czechs or Spain and be up against it.

[rfkimble]

any1 hav a link 2 uefa/fifa tie break rules for the groups. i cant find it anywhere on their sites. cheers

[tetsujin1979]

Cyprus away will be tricky now without Keane, Reid and Morrison. However we still should have enough to win there. We owe the Swiss big time.
Kavanagh or Steven Reid to come in for Keane
Steve Finnan (or Steven Reid if he doesn't come in for Keane) to come in for Andy Reid
Elliott should get his first competitive start in place of Morrisson

[geysir]

Its getting worse, it could turn out to be another finals where we have to end up supporting Scotland.

[Stuttgart88]

Thinking about this a bit more, and it has just occurred to me that if we win our last two games, we will finish at least second if France don't lose to Switzerland OR if France lose 1-0 to Switzerland. Switzerland beating France 1-0 would in fact be the best result for us as it would also leave us with a chance of winning the group if we beat the Swiss by two or the Cypriots by five.

2 wins is not an unrealistic target and would almost certainly guarantee us the playoff.

If Switzerland beat France then we have a target to win the group. A 1-0 Swiss result is of course the best if unlikely.

Thank God somebody else around here is actually bothered to look at the facts. Pretty much regardless of the result last night, beating Switzerland was always going to be key anyway.

Defeat is far from the end of the world. I don't think Switzerland will get anything from France - I fancy France to win there by a couple. In that case even a draw last night would have meant we'd have had to beat France's goal difference (unlikely) to win the group on 20 points.

So it's probably not worth bemoaning not getting the draw. Not winning was the big disappointment. I'm largely indifferent to a draw / defeat in the cold light of day.

Second place is still very much alive and, as totalfootball says, a narrow Swiss win over France re-opens the door to win the group.

I don't think either of our remaining games will be easy but I reckon we've probably got a better than evens chance of 6 points. What are the bookies saying?

[Danny]

http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/releases/en/fwc_regulations_2006_090604_en.pdf

Qualifyin rules on Page 6

[JamesB]

I would have agreeed with Stuttgat88 before the game. Draw or loose we sill have to beat the Swiss to qualify so a loss is no big deal.
But the performance last night has really taken away my confidence in this team.

[Wiseguy]

If we hadn't fcuked up against Isreal twice then we wouldn't be in this situation.This has to be one of the weakest Irish sides in years and although i hope i am wrong i can't see us beating the Swiss and they are sh1te.I don't think Kerr is the man for the job and i never did as he seems to be tactically nieve.

[VinnyL]

yea last night doesnt change a thing... we still have to win our last two games!!!

[paul_oshea]

Lads, as sad as it has made me tonight, we have achieved nothing in this pathetic group. We don't deserve to qualify. We aren't going to Germany. Time to get over it. But at least we lost to former (recent) World Champions. England lost to a team ranked lower than Rwanda and Lebanon.


here paddy, you changed your attitude awful quickly, just as often as a hoor changes her knickers. wheere is the blind optimism as per usual/???

it really has begun to annoy me that people here were **** sure we would win, cos i never felt it and no one beleived me.

[TerryPhelan]

it really has begun to annoy me that people here were **** sure we would win, cos i never felt it and no one beleived me.

I believed you. I expressed as much when I started the France Prediction thread.

I can't understand how people can expect some glorious 2-0 or 3-0 to be plucked out of the air against a reinforced French side full of world class players, purely on the back of empty notions such as 'home advantage', 'guts' or 'heart'. As last night showed, we are simply not good enough. Duff and Robbie Keane never showed up. Kilbane was atrocious. Our last throw of the dice was to throw on a fringe player at a second division Spanish side and a Norwich city reserve. We failed to produce in the final third, and our tactics, for some inexplicable reason, seemed to be about playing the long ball.

The thing is, none of our performances in the group - up until and including last night - give cause for that kind of optimism. Cyprus have been very difficult for better sides than ours to break down away from home. And why people view Switzerland at home as some kind of foregone conclusion is beyond me. Just because we 'owe' them, doesn't somehow entitle us to a victory.

Last night showed that tactically and otherwise, while we can rally and scrap a bit for a while at this level, we don't pose nearly enough attacking threat to worry good teams. In the last 15-20 minutes we lost our shape and went out without a peep. I don't see how, on the back of our performances to date, people can expect much different from the tricky ties ahead of us.

[Littlest Hobo]

Lads, as sad as it has made me tonight, we have achieved nothing in this pathetic group. We don't deserve to qualify. We aren't going to Germany. Time to get over it. But at least we lost to former (recent) World Champions. England lost to a team ranked lower than Rwanda and Lebanon.

C'mon Tuff, your usually the most up-beat one around here.
Were still in with a chance, mate. :ball: :ball:

[zinedineontour]

If we win our next 2 games i thought we automatically got 2nd as if we on same points as swiss does it not go on how we performed against the swiss ??

[tetsujin1979]

If we win our next 2 games i thought we automatically got 2nd as if we on same points as swiss does it not go on how we performed against the swiss ??
Yes, if we beat the swiss and finish on the same points as them, we'll go ahead of them having a better head to head record (1 win and 1 draw VS 1 draw)

[Stuttgart88]

Yeah zinedine, but France would "beat" us, Swiss would beat the French & we'd beat the Swiss. There's no logical dominant outcome that separates the 3 teams so then it goes down to GD, then GS between the 3 teams in the 6 matches played, then overall GD.

I think there is only one scenario where 6 points will leave us third: if Swiss beat the French by the same margin that we beat the Swiss but in a higher scoring game. Then we'd probably come third to France on overall goal-difference.

As totalfootball says a 2-0 win over Switzerland MUST get us at least second. If we beat the Swiss by more than they beat France (or the same if winning margin > 1) we win the Group.

Simple.

[Dotsy]

I believed you. I expressed as much when I started the France Prediction thread.

I can't understand how people can expect some glorious 2-0 or 3-0 to be plucked out of the air against a reinforced French side full of world class players, purely on the back of empty notions such as 'home advantage', 'guts' or 'heart'. As last night showed, we are simply not good enough. Duff and Robbie Keane never showed up. Kilbane was atrocious. Our last throw of the dice was to throw on a fringe player at a second division Spanish side and a Norwich city reserve. We failed to produce in the final third, and our tactics, for some inexplicable reason, seemed to be about playing the long ball.

The thing is, none of our performances in the group - up until and including last night - give cause for that kind of optimism. Cyprus have been very difficult for better sides than ours to break down away from home. And why people view Switzerland at home as some kind of foregone conclusion is beyond me. Just because we 'owe' them, doesn't somehow entitle us to a victory.

Last night showed that tactically and otherwise, while we can rally and scrap a bit for a while at this level, we don't pose nearly enough attacking threat to worry good teams. In the last 15-20 minutes we lost our shape and went out without a peep. I don't see how, on the back of our performances to date, people can expect much different from the tricky ties ahead of us.


The game last night was a game between two poor teams. They took one of their two chances, we failed to take any of the two or three we had. You are right, it wasn't a foregone conclusion we would win but equally it wasn't a foregone conclusion they would either. A draw would have been a fair result last night. FRance may go on to win this group but I wou'dn't give them a hope of doing anything of note in Germany with this team. I don't think we are much better than Switzerland but IMO it should be a failrly evely matched game and we can nick it but it will be close either way. We hould beat Cyprus no qustion no matter who is suspended. If we don't then we can truly say we didn't deserve to get anything from this group

[thejollyrodger]

http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin1979/Group4Permutations.html

Most helpful page ever !!


I expect France to beat Switzerland. They are weaker than us.

I think we will scrape a win out in Cyprus.

It all comes down to the last game. 1st is a pipedream. We might just get a draw at home against switzerland. We dont look like scoring goals

[gaf1983]

i predict a strange game on the last day - if France beat Swiss and we beat cyprus.
Switzerland and Ireland will both need a win to finish second, whereas a draw will mean neither finish second and Israel go through!

imagine the last few minutes at 0-0 when a draw is useless for both teams!!!!!

[tetsujin1979]

Yes, but there are a few errors at this page. It isn't true that we need France to drop points against Cyprus for us to finish top, nor is it true that if we beat Switzerland and Cyprus and the Swiss beat the French and the French beat Cyprus that we will definitely finish second - if these results occur we will finish first, second or third, depending on the precise results. Please re-read the rules for what happens if three teams finish equal on points.
Fair enough, I left out the France - Cyprus and Cyprus - Ireland games, I'll put them in

[Stuttgart88]

I've updated the Group 4 Spreadsheet to include a "mini-league" table between us, France & Switzerland in the event that we all fiinsh on 19 points.

I've e-mailed it to Tetsujin who I hope will make it available for all.

[tetsujin1979]

I've updated the Group 4 Spreadsheet to include a "mini-league" table between us, France & Switzerland in the event that we all fiinsh on 19 points.

I've e-mailed it to Tetsujin who I hope will make it available for all.
Done and done - http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin1979/Group4.zip
I've updated the results for the MobileGroupTable, and there's a slightly newer version available on the site below, the only difference is now you can scroll the group screen over to see the points in the table, some people were complaining the screens on their phones were too small for it. If you're happy with it as it is, don't download the newer version, just hit update in the menu You'll notice it now defaults to the next set of games as well ;)

[zinedineontour]

so obivously we will hopefully win our two games ..

so france v switz ? should we be hoping for switz win so we may top the group ? or france win so that we have better chance of second ??

[Stuttgart88]

so france v switz ? should we be hoping for switz win so we may top the group ? or france win so that we have better chance of second ??

Depends on whether you're an optimist or not!

Personally I think a 1-0 or any 2 goal win for Switzerland is the best outcome. A 2-0 win over the Swiss would win us the group.

If the Swiss beat the French by 2 then even a 1 goal win for us in Dublin will get us second over France with Switzerland winning the group on overall goal difference. The risk is a 2-1 win for Switzerland & we only beat Switzerland 1-0. In that scenario we come third.

In one sense though a Swiss win means that they're more likely to be able to beat us too & they'll be in a good state of mind for Dublin etc. But sod it, we should be beating them regardless. Otherwise we don't deserve it as many have said above.

[Stuttgart88]

The risk is a 2-1 win for Switzerland & we only beat Switzerland 1-0. In that scenario we come third.
Zinedine, would that be a risk you'd be prepared to take? Or would you prefer a French win / draw just to completely put this possibility out of the equation?

Personally, I'm hoping for a Swiss win & then take it from there. I'd really fear for our play-off chances. Too many good teams out there.

[Stuttgart88]

totalfootball, I was editing my post as you were submitting yours!

[Stuttgart88]

5) Switzerland beat France by one goal by some other score than 1-0. In this case we will probably need to beat Switzerland by the same score as they beat France, or by a better score, in order to avoid elimination. The advantage of Switzerland beating France by 2-1, or by 3-2, etc. would be that we would still have a chance of winning the group, but this would only happen if we beat the Swiss by two goals, or beat them by the same score as they beat France and beat the Cypriots by five. I feel this would be the worst result from the Swiss-French game because of the danger of not finishing in the top two, even if we win our last two games.
I'm not sure I agree on beating Cyprus by 5 though based on your thoroughness so far you're probably right.

If, say, Sitzerland beats France 2-1 and we beat Switzerland 1-0, Switzerland will win the group of three on goals scored. France & ourselves will tie on goal difference & on goals scored & it'll go down to total group goal difference. On that basis if we better France's win over Cyprus our overall GD will be better than France's. And even if we exactly match France's win over Cyprus we'd go through on overall goals scored (by +2).

[eirebhoy]

France haven't lost a competitive away match since 1992 so there's little chance of a Swiss win.

[Schumi]

There's another point to consider here. If France and Switzerland draw, then a draw against us is likely to be enough for Switzerland to get second which won't help us at all.

[elroy]

Christ lads, my head is wrecked with all these permutations.

Personnally after last night I think top spot is gone from us, although I think we played quite well and were very unlucky to lose in what was a tight game won by a moment of genius.
Therefore, I think the best result for us is a French win in Switzerland as that would mean the Swiss would be coming here needing a win also to qualify. This should lead to an open game which would def suit us (in particular Duff) better. I couldnt see us scoring two goals against the Swiss if they had beaten France and only needed a draw here.

[holidaysong]

Christ lads, my head is wrecked with all these permutations.

Personnally after last night I think top spot is gone from us, although I think we played quite well and were very unlucky to lose in what was a tight game won by a moment of genius.
Therefore, I think the best result for us is a French win in Switzerland as that would mean the Swiss would be coming here needing a win also to qualify. This should lead to an open game which would def suit us (in particular Duff) better. I couldnt see us scoring two goals against the Swiss if they had beaten France and only needed a draw here.

Yeah that is what I think too. I just want to know going into the Switzerland game that if we win then we definately have second place, even if it is just a 1-0. I don't fancy us having to win by more than one goal against the Swiss.

[zinedineontour]

Yeah that is what I think too. I just want to know going into the Switzerland game that if we win then we definately have second place, even if it is just a 1-0. I don't fancy us having to win by more than one goal against the Swiss.

I think your right ... think having to win 2-0 might be a bit tough ...think if we just have to beat switzerland without having to win by a certain margin knowing we could get second would be the best option ...

[Stuttgart88]

I think your right ... think having to win 2-0 might be a bit tough ...think if we just have to beat switzerland without having to win by a certain margin knowing we could get second would be the best option ...

Interesting dilemma: we're 1 up with 10 mins to go. A 2-0 win wins us the group. They need a draw. What do you do? :)

[gspain]

Posted already but please read carefully.

Best result for us is Switzerland to beat France 2-0/3-1/4-2 etc.

This means a 1 goal win v Swiss gives us the playoff and Swiss the group.

A 2 goal win gives us the group and Swiss the playoff.

Means if we do go 1 up Swiss won't be trying too hard to equalise rather ensure they don't concede another.

French win or draw means we need to win both games for the playoff.

Worst result possible is 2-1/3-2/4-3 to Swiss as a 1-0 win will probably still mean elimination for us.

[Stuttgart88]

Sorry you're right - oversight on my part. I even posted exactly what you have just said about 12 posts ago!

But OK, do we chase a 2-0 to win the group when a 1-0 is enough for second (say the Swiss have beaten France 2-0)? Similar dilemma.

Please don't ask me to read carefully - I've been as meticulous as anyone in explaining the permutations to those who not interested enough or who couldn't be bothered to work them out for themselves. I even took the (bloody substantial) effort to prepare & update the original spreadsheet posted on this site that works out the combo's and I modified it yesterday to include the "3 way tie" outcomes. You can view it on Tetsujin's site.

[Volcán Masaya]

Posted already but please read carefully.

Best result for us is Switzerland to beat France 2-0/3-1/4-2 etc.

This means a 1 goal win v Swiss gives us the playoff and Swiss the group.

A 2 goal win gives us the group and Swiss the playoff.

Means if we do go 1 up Swiss won't be trying too hard to equalise rather ensure they don't concede another.

French win or draw means we need to win both games for the playoff.

Worst result possible is 2-1/3-2/4-3 to Swiss as a 1-0 win will probably still mean elimination for us.


Lads, we don't need to be worrying oursleves about 3-2 Swiss wins. Not gonna happen. That's away with the faeries stuff.

The bottom line is we need to win next two games. We should beat Cyprus, even without RoyK, Reid, etc. Seriously, if we can't beat them without a few key players, then we have no business in the WC.

Now, the key thing is that the last game will be a win only situation for us. So it will be interesting to see how Kerr responds to that. My main criticism of him is that he is tooooo conservative and is more afraid of losing than going for the win. I believe this has cost us dearly, esp against Isreal the first time and against Swiss the first. We should have gone for the jugular and we didn't.
It's almost as if he's stuck in the old "2 pts for a win" days, when it made sense to play it cagey and settle for half the points. We need someone who's not afraid to roll the dice and go for the 3 pts. In this day and age it's actually more benefical to win some games and lose others than to draw all the time and only get the one point..... i.e... 2 wins and 2 loses is 6pts..... 4 draws is 4pts.

[zinedineontour]

Beat the Cypriots and worry bout it then me thinks !

[Dotsy]

Beat the Cypriots and worry bout it then me thinks !

Spot on. Whetever happens we need to win that one by as many goals as possible and then do whatever needs to be done on the last day.

[deego11]

good article from Irish Independent today sums up the permutations!

AMAZING as it seems after Wednesday's defeat by France in Lansdowne Road, Ireland can still win Group Four and qualify automatically for next summer's World Cup Finals.

However, we must beat Cyprus (away) on October 8 and Switzerland (home) on October 12 to keep our World Cup hopes alive. Draws are no longer any good at this stage.
Two wins from our final two games will leave us on 19 points and the following factors then come into play.
If France win their final two games against Switzerland (away) on October 8 and Cyprus (home) on October 12 they will finish on 22 points, win the group and qualify automatically for Germany. Ireland will finish second and go into the play-offs.

If France draw with Switzerland and beat Cyprus they will finish on 20 points and will win the group. Ireland will finish second.

If France lose to Switzerland and beat Cyprus they will finish on 19 points as will Switzerland and Ireland and FIFA's regulations come into play.

The first method of division is the greater number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned.
With a draw and a win each team would be on four points so it would be impossible to divide them on this basis.

The next criteria is goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned. At present this is France (+1), Switzerland (0) and Ireland (-1). Ireland would have to beat Switzerland by two goals more than the Swiss beat France to win the group and qualify automatically.

If the sides have the same goal difference then the greater number of goals scored in the group matches between the teams will be used to divide them. At present this reads France (1), Switzerland (1), Ireland (1). Ireland would have to beat Switzerland by two goals more than the Swiss score against France which is also what they would need to qualify through goal difference.

If the Swiss beat France 1-0 and Ireland win 1-0 in Dublin then France are out and Ireland and Switzerland are level on goals scored (2). However, if it is a high scoring game between Switzerland and France then Ireland could be out if they don't score at least one more goal than the French and would have to settle for a play-off spot if they don't get two more than the Swiss.

If Ireland and Switzerland cannot be separated at this stage then FIFA will take the goal difference in all group matches and at present this is Switzerland (+11) and Ireland (+6). Ireland will need to beat Cyprus by at least six goals to gain the upper hand here.

The final criteria is the greater number of goals scored in all the group matches and once again Switzerland hold the upper hand with 16 while Ireland have 11 but if Ireland have got to this stage by hammering Cyprus then they will edge the Swiss here and there will be no need for a play-off at a neutral venue.
So, everything is still in the melting pot as far as Group Four is concerned and two wins should be good enough to at least guarantee Ireland a place in the play-offs.

[gaf1983]

Ireland would have to beat Switzerland by two goals more than the Swiss score against France which is also what they would need to qualify through goal difference.



surely that should read:
" Ireland would have to beat Switzerland by one goal more than the Swiss beat France "

e.g.
if we beat swiss and they beat france all (1-0)

we'd all be (=) goal difference in swiss fra ire mini league.

but if we beat swiss by 2 goals and they beat france by one goal (ie. we beat swiss by one more one more goal tan they beat france) we'd be (+1) swiss wud be (-1) and france wud be (=).

[deego11]

Whoops sorry thought that that was right! its so confusing all the different potentials. now im even more confused! ;)

[deego11]

It's not you who should be apologising, it's the media. The lack of basic numeracy in the media never ceases to astound me. They just can't do simple sums. Over and over again they get it wrong. Before the game, we had the BBC claiming that if Ireland lost they would 'almost certainly' have no chance of qualifying, and now all of a sudden the media discover that that is not true, and that we could still easily qualify if we win our last two games. But still, having looked at the table more closely, they manage to get the calculations wrong. We also have Cunningham now saying that now 'it's out of our hands' (see http://www.eleven-a-side.com/worldcup2006/irish_soccer_detail.asp?newsid=19040) but it isn't 'out of our hands'! To be 100% certain of finishing in the top two, all we need to do is beat Cyprus and beat Switzerland by 2.

That is unreal that they can get it so wrong! I automatically took it that it was right, well its their job to have it right isnt it! Very annoying alright.