Covid-19

[NeverFeltBetter]

It's slipped, and it's still slipping. I think that's one of the reasons the government was keen to get that roadmap out, to stay on top of it and basically endorse a loosening of restrictions before people just stop adhering to them.

When the 2k limit was expanded to 5k it just so happened my workplace fell within my circle, so I walked out one afternoon to have a check of the building, going down the Royal Canal into the city centre. I shouldn't have been surprised really, but I was astonished by the amount of people out, especially down near the Dorset Street area. The canal path was actually clogged at points, loads of groups of people drinking, kids swimming in the canal.

Then comparatively me and the GF walked to the Phoenix Park one evening, and I was fairly apprehensive about that, but the place was deserted. Helps that they've barred some entrances of course, but you could have walked for a half-hour in parts and not seen another person. So I guess it all depends? Time of day certainly a factor.

[pineapple stu]

One thing which has started gaining popularity recently is the idea that this may have struck months before we thought it did - Nov/Dec for example. Hearing stories now of people who came down with a really bad dose over the winter and are sure they had coronavirus.

But if that were the case, surely we'd have seen it in terms if ICU spikes, etc? Instead, the modelling from the first known case seems to have come true - exponential increase, followed by gradual reduction on full lock-down.

Anyone more knowledgeable than me able to give any info on that - are people imagining things from earlier? Or is our understanding of the disease based on a March arrival date fundamentally wrong in some way?

[John83]

I think that's all just baseless speculation, pineapple. Given how infectious it is, if it were here without any distancing measures, we're have been flattened by it. There are all sorts of wild rumours floating around, and that's just one more.

[tetsujin1979]

At the time, doctors didn't know what to search for, so any cases from that time were probably misdiagnosed, and the patient told to rest. A pneumonia case in France in December was recently retested and confirmed as coronavirus - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554

[pineapple stu]

I think that's all just baseless speculation, pineapple. Given how infectious it is, if it were here without any distancing measures, we're have been flattened by it. There are all sorts of wild rumours floating around, and that's just one more.


At the time, doctors didn't know what to search for, so any cases from that time were probably misdiagnosed, and the patient told to rest. A pneumonia case in France in December was recently retested and confirmed as coronavirus - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554

But the question then is how to reconcile these two posts?

If coronavirus arrived in France in December and is as infectious as everyone says it is, why did France's curve take off in a perfectly normal way in March? OK, doctors didn't know what to test for - but why wasn't there a spike in ICU admissions or deaths? The RIP analysis, for example, only shows a spike in April, which correlates with the data we currently have - i.e. it arrived here in March and took off in April.

I can't square these two posts off.

[ArFella]

My wife and I came down with an atrocious 'flus' at Christmas (my wife was hospitalized due it exacerbating her asthma), our families are convinced it was Covid but I'm a bit more skeptical because as John83 said surely the country would be in a much worse state than we are currently, but it's probably impossible to know as it would all be based on anecdotal evidence.

[passinginterest]

Yeah, I remember that flu around Christmas, my wife had a brutal dose, couldn't even get out of bed on new years eve, was close enough to bringing her to A&E, and there was a spike in hospital flu admissions, but I'm fairly sure it was confirmed at the time that it was a know strain of flu, it just happened that it wasn't one of the strains covered by the seasonal vaccine. There may have been a few cases, but as the trends confirm the spike in community transmissions only really started in March.

[elatedscum]

i got flu around christmas time. but then i also got sick in february, everyone in my apartment did - and it had all the symptoms of covid-19. the tightness in the chest and difficulty breathing was what i found different from anything else. but it was about 1 week (or 2) before there was a confirmed case in ireland. i'd say there's over 50% chance it was covid-19.

[elatedscum]

i got flu around christmas time. but then i also got sick in february, everyone in my apartment did - and it had all the symptoms of covid-19. the tightness in the chest and difficulty breathing was what i found different from anything else. but it was about 1 week (or 2) before there was a confirmed case in ireland. i'd say there's over 50% chance it was covid-19.

[John83]

But the question then is how to reconcile these two posts?

If coronavirus arrived in France in December and is as infectious as everyone says it is, why did France's curve take off in a perfectly normal way in March? OK, doctors didn't know what to test for - but why wasn't there a spike in ICU admissions or deaths? The RIP analysis, for example, only shows a spike in April, which correlates with the data we currently have - i.e. it arrived here in March and took off in April.

I can't square these two posts off.
I think the most likely explanation is a false positive test.

[peadar1987]

Yeah the gf works in medical trials and her opinion is that the tests coming up as positive for C-19 from last year are just false positives. They do happen, and as others have said, the figures for infections and deaths we see are entirely consistent with the virus arriving in Europe in March time.

[tetsujin1979]

Zero deaths yesterday, for the first time since March.
It's a real milestone. Would be good to see less than 50 new cases in one day as well, the numbers have been around 55-70 for a few days, with a spike of 115 on one day last week.
Still haven't seen the impact of the first round of restrictions being lifted, that should be later this week.

[geysir]

I think I must be living in your future. With just about 6 confirmed cases in total in May so far, pretty much all is open in Iceland now with the last of the key restrictions now lifted, 2m gone, pubs and gyms open, but the big event was the opening of the swimming pools, long queues outside each pool before midnight on Monday, thousands went for a dip from betweeen midnight to 6am. The pools staying open all night was just a one off event.

Still, football doesn't begin untin June 5th as per schedule with a league cup competition as a forerunner to the league proper. As it stands now only 200 can attend an event but I'd expect that to be lifted for the football in June..

The chief epidemiologist said that the severity of symptoms with confirmed cases had been gradually diminishing since feb 28, as if the virus was not as aggressive. Maybe a virus also has a lifespan, just runs its course, peaks and then retreats naturally.

[John83]

The chief epidemiologist said that the severity of symptoms with confirmed cases had been gradually diminishing since feb 28, as if the virus was not as aggressive. Maybe a virus also has a lifespan, just runs its course, peaks and then retreats naturally.
There is a rule of thumb that viruses tend to get less life threatening with time because the mutations that kill you slower spread better.

[peadar1987]

There is a rule of thumb that viruses tend to get less life threatening with time because the mutations that kill you slower spread better.

Which is why our lives have been affected so much more by the rona than they were by ebola. I was reading about the Spanish 'flu a while back, and one of the many theories about why it was so deadly was along these lines.

In normal times, you get sick with the 'flu. The sicker you are, the more likely you are to stay at home or be bedridden, and the less likely you are to go out and infect people. In WW1, the sicker you were, the more likely you were to be evacuated from the front line on a crowded troop train to a hospital with thousands of others, so there was actually a positive selection pressure on the more aggressive traits of the virus during those times that wouldn't generally be seen.

[tetsujin1979]

Infection numbers are starting to climb again, just when deaths are starting to drop to almost zero.
Possibly because it's two weeks since the first round of restrictions were lifted.

[jbyrne]

Infection numbers are starting to climb again, just when deaths are starting to drop to almost zero.
Possibly because it's two weeks since the first round of restrictions were lifted.

a lot of people, younger people especially, have stopped caring.
saw a very large group of older teenagers being broken up by the gardai yesterday. they simply dispersed temporarily and met up again close by a short time later. it was all just a joke to them and the gardai turning up simply added to the occasion.

[dahamsta]

America is going to suffer. They need to protest or their country is going to fall apart, but many people are going to get sick and some are going to die as a result.

[geysir]

The men's football league started this weekend in Iceland, almost every game was a sellout, from 1,200 to 2,200 in attendance, no space restrictions.

There was a strange occurrence over the weekend with a group of 6 from an EU country being allowed in at the airport. they were supposed to enter a 14 days quarantine but didn't, 3 were caught shoplifting. The three were tested and 2 were found to be positive with the virus. What followed was a time consuming pedantic tracing investigation which ended with some police and others having to enter quarantine. Things like that pee me off, not that I think there will be another virus outbreak outcome but just the ignorant abuse of trust which consumes resources and adds an element of mistrust to something which had been going very smoothly and under control.

[John83]

There was a strange occurrence over the weekend with a group of 6 from an EU country being allowed in at the airport. they were supposed to enter a 14 days quarantine but didn't, 3 were caught shoplifting. The three were tested and 2 were found to be positive with the virus. What followed was a time consuming pedantic tracing investigation which ended with some police and others having to enter quarantine. Things like that pee me off, not that I think there will be another virus outbreak outcome but just the ignorant abuse of trust which consumes resources and adds an element of mistrust to something which had been going very smoothly and under control.
Who flies to another country to shoplift? Congrats to them for ensuring they never get a visa anywhere again.

[geysir]

Who flies to another country to shoplift? Congrats to them for ensuring they never get a visa anywhere again.

I'd hazard a guess that once they saw the price of things here, the desire came upon them.

Out of interest, about 1,000 passengers arrived at the airport yesterday, seeing as it's a no cost test for now, all wisely chose to be tested there and then rather than quarantine, just 2 were confirmed positive with the virus.
I read a BBC report (https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/52947494) that Ross County purchased their own 20 minutes covid tester for Gbp 35,000.

[mypost]

Infection numbers are starting to climb again, just when deaths are starting to drop to almost zero.
Possibly because it's two weeks since the first round of restrictions were lifted.

Infection numbers will climb, but most of those people will make, or have already made, a full recovery.

The restrictions were originally introduced to protect the health service. As the Irish health service is well able to accommodate the current figures, it's time to question if the current restrictions are absolutely necessary.

[tetsujin1979]

Tracker app released earlier today: https://covidtracker.gov.ie/

[geysir]

I had to laugh at the Healy-Ray quip he made to know-it-all Varadkar, (drawn out Kerry accent obligatory) "Tis fairly foolish to think that the virus can know whether you're eating with your pint or not." and "there's an awful difference between Dame Lane and Ballinskelligs".

The nunber of border tests in Iceland is at 2,200 per day, now costs about 60 Eur which includes a follow up test after 4 or 5 days.
July so far at the border - 9 active infections confirmed. 50 were detected with just some amount of antibodies, then there is some other test to determine if quarantine is required, mostly not. Everything else is normal, except touriists are scarce (good and bad) puffin shops are empty (that's good), aluminum prices very low and export fresh fish sales slumped. This hit to the economy is huge compared to the puny banking/currency crash of 2008, yet there is nowhere near that same overwhelming blanket of dread and pervading pessimism that was about post 2008 crash..

The football league has proceded as normal but not without hiccups. A returning female player from USA in early June, tested negative at first, then tested positive a week later (asymptomatic) after she had played a league game ---- and 'partied a bit' (her words).
The net result was that her team, the opposition team, the officials all went into quarantine and the club building got a good cleaning. Two league games were postponed for each team. And the idea of retesting all arrivals into the country after 4 or 5 days now became the norm.
No contagion was detected but the disruption had a high nuisance value and more especially when it's just a semi-pro league.

[osarusan]

I wonder how close we are to another national lockdown.

[passinginterest]

I wonder how close we are to another national lockdown.

At the moment a good distance away. A national lockdown is only likely if hospital and ICU numbers surge, and so far that's not the case. Sadly a lot of very vulnerable elderly people died in the first wave, and over summer time less people die in general (less respiratory illness around in general), coming into the winter, with seasonal flu also circulating, there might be a spike but a national lockdown has to be a last resort. The pubs have been put back again, and the evidence seems to be that anywhere they reopen there's an associated surge. Of course the other main difference to the first surge is that we're now all very aware of how easily this spreads, the vulnerable are taking extra precautions, and most reasonable people are using face coverings, maintaining hand hygiene routines and limiting their social contacts.

Golfgate and the like do huge damage though, there's already a restless public, sick of the restrictions and to see such senior public figures acting as though they're above the need to follow them is a big blow to morale. Not only that, but it's a ready made excuse for those who were already taking liberties to push it further. Pretty sick of hearing people justify themselves completely disregarding the regulations because; "sure I haven't seen them in ages", "sure nobody is following the local lockdown", "sure the guards aren't enforcing it", "sure I know who I've been in contact with and there's no way I have it so why should I not go there", "sure it's only in the factories and the direct provision centres, stop being weird and following all these guidelines, just come to the party anyway".

Now I understand some of the "you can't live in fear stuff", but at the same time, it's not asking a lot to throw on a face covering in a shop, or step a bit wider passing someone in the street, or to just stand back a few feet when having a conversation. The gradual creep up of community transmission is largely down to people just abandoning the simple precautions, and it doesn't take a whole lot to go from creep to exponential growth again.

[dahamsta]

I wonder how close we are to another national lockdown.

Ask again in 2 weeks.

[John83]

Ask again in 2 weeks.
I assume you mean with the schools going back? I'd guess 3-4 weeks, but yeah.

[dahamsta]

C19 quarantines are 2 weeks for a reason, that's around the maximum incubation period, that's why we watch for numbers after 2 weeks.

[pineapple stu]

Well, it'll take longer than two weeks for a pattern to emerge though. In two weeks, we'll know how many cases emerged from the first day of school. But it'll take a couple of weeks longer to see how quickly the virus spreads through schools and to make a decision on whether or not to leave them open.

[John83]

Yeah, Pineapple's post is pretty much what I meant. Dahamsta is right too though to say 2 weeks is the max incubation time, so there'll certainly be a non-trivial amount of information available in 2 weeks. I expect at least a week of hand-wringing and half-measures even if the numbers rocket though.

[dahamsta]

Most cases develop in 5-6 days though, that's why 2 weeks is generally a good indicator. Sure let's meet in the middle at 3 weeks, and then double that for Micky to beat down the FF muppets still battling for reopening despite all of the evidence against it? :)

[pineapple stu]

Yeah, I don't see it being much longer than a month alright. So probably reasonable to say that the 3-week mark is key - you should be able to see which way things are going by then.

[tetsujin1979]

I've a persistent cough for a few days, so I rang my doctor yesterday for his opinion. I've no other symptoms - temperature is normal, no loss of taste or smell, energy levels are fine - so he said it was up to me to get the test. I asked him to go ahead and book it, and got my appointment about half an hour later for today at 2:30. It's unpleasant, but only lasts a second; one swab from the back of my throat, and one from the back of my nose.
In all likelihood I've just a cold, I'm not coughing as much today, but I am clearing my throat quite a bit. Should get the results over the weekend.

[John83]

I hope you get the all-clear tets.

[dahamsta]

Good luck!

[tetsujin1979]

Text from the HSE - test was negative. That's about 28 hours from the test to the result.
Praise the deity of your preference.

[dahamsta]

Praise the empty void!

[backstothewall]

How does the test work with you guys? I've had the nordie one done but curious if it's that different in other places.

[NeverFeltBetter]

How is everyone doing with all of this recently? The prospect of a second lockdown appears to be one without a hint of any kind of blitz spirit. Getting a bit annoyed about how every news story on the topic appears to be an exercise in wondering about the All-Irelands.

[tetsujin1979]

The "we can beat this together" mentality that we had during the first lockdown is definitely not there now. The direction from the government isn't helping - do we have five levels, or five and a half, or five levels and two half levels - and the leaks from NPHET aren't doing them any favours.
My opinion is that, until fines are introduced for breaking the restrictions (e.g. that guy who didn't isolate after coming back from holiday which led to more than fifty cases), it's going to be a series of rolling peaks and troughs of cases for the foreseeable future.

[Real ale Madrid]

We are just hanging on until a vaccine or treatment is available. I reckon this increase of the levels now is to try and keep it at level 1 or 2 over Christmas and hopefully an end will be in sight then Feb / Mar. That's my reading of it.

[NeverFeltBetter]

The levels were meaningless the moment Dublin went to "Three and a half". Even now they're talking about Level 4 with additional restrictions. This after the Tanaiste acted as if NPHET had gone off the rails just a few weeks ago at the idea of moving the country up.

[John83]

The levels were meaningless the moment Dublin went to "Three and a half". Even now they're talking about Level 4 with additional restrictions. This after the Tanaiste acted as if NPHET had gone off the rails just a few weeks ago at the idea of moving the country up.
The failure to have simple levels with clear criteria to move from one to another is a serious failing of this government.

Personally, I'd have had 3 levels, and a cut-off in terms of new cases in the previous 14 days / 100k population, and it's done. None of this horse trading bull**** as the government argues how many publicans can dance on the head of a pin.

[dahamsta]

It'll come across as very unsympathetic, possibly even selfish since I have a young family at home, but personally I'm sick to the teeth with the whining. The simple fact of the matter is that it could be a year or more before we get a vaccine, and it could be a year or more after that before it gets to us. The simple fact of the matter is that the best ways to protects ourselves from it in the meantime are distancing, isolation and masks. Complaining about these achieves nothing. People need to stop complaining about closures - especially entirely non-essential closures - and start complaining about supports.

[tetsujin1979]

Listening to the radio this morning - they were speaking to people shopping in Dublin before the shops close tonight. One woman had been queuing outside Penny's since 4am.

[pineapple stu]

Complaining about these achieves nothing. People need to stop complaining about closures - especially entirely non-essential closures - and start complaining about supports.
I think this will be trickier in the second lockdown though, especially with (awful as it is to say it) so few deaths at the moment. There was a full-page ad in the Irish Times during the week (I don't know who took it out) noting that the median age of death was 83 (more than the life expectancy), and that 95% of people who died had underlying medical conditions. Fergal Bowers is getting chased on Twitter too to clarify how many of those in hospital or in ICU with covid are there because of covid, or were diagnosed with covid while there for another reason. The question in both cases was what's the point of the lockdown. And on the face of it, they're actually reasonable questions.

But of course once you dig into it, you can see that "underlying medical conditions" is quite a broad term and includes diabetes or obesity, which between them affect 7% and 25% of the country respectively (some will have both of course). Death rates are probably quite low at the moment in part at least because vulnerable people are going out of their way to take care of themselves. And then there's the issue that covid outcomes aren't black and white in terms of dying or not - even if you come through a bad dose of it, you can have permanent lung damage, there's increased risk of stroke and there's plenty of stories of people who have taken months to fully recover their energy levels. It really does sound like something you don't want to take chances with.

But some people are a dangerous mix of stupid and selfish (I saw someone else on Facebook saying that of course going to visit your daughter was an essential journey...). I think for once we need to actually clamp down on that hard. If we don't - and we've shown no real inclination to - then this lockdown will almost certainly last longer than the last one.

[Exgrad]

We are just hanging on until a vaccine or treatment is available. I reckon this increase of the levels now is to try and keep it at level 1 or 2 over Christmas and hopefully an end will be in sight then Feb / Mar. That's my reading of it.

There's not a hope in hell we will be at level 1 or 2 for Christmas. Level 3 if all goes well and we are very lucky. The lets save Christmas message has been generated by a communications department to help get buy in. Once we are a few weeks into level 5 expect that message to change, more scare stories and then a restoration to level 3 for part of December through to early Jan, which people will be grateful for. Things will become very sticky from early next year when people realise they won't be booking their foreign holiday they were promised last summer, and NPHET start demanding a level 5 + shutdown. Government may not survive it, increase in civil disobedience beyond the lunatics as well maybe?

[dahamsta]

Listening to the radio this morning - they were speaking to people shopping in Dublin before the shops close tonight. One woman had been queuing outside Penny's since 4am.

The problem is Xmas, getting all the presents lined up is bad at the best of times at Xmas, but the supply chains were only just starting to catch up and in the last few weeks there's been a run again. It's easy to argue that we need to calm ourselves and mind the supply chains, but I'm already down two santa presents now. Our kids are reasonable so we can talk to them about it, but it's still a pain in the ass.

So yes, we dashed up to Cork yesterday to go to Smyths. Sorry for being one of them.

[peadar1987]

The problem is Xmas, getting all the presents lined up is bad at the best of times at Xmas, but the supply chains were only just starting to catch up and in the last few weeks there's been a run again. It's easy to argue that we need to calm ourselves and mind the supply chains, but I'm already down two santa presents now. Our kids are reasonable so we can talk to them about it, but it's still a pain in the ass.

So yes, we dashed up to Cork yesterday to go to Smyths. Sorry for being one of them.

That one's easy. Santa isn't allowed be a big auld super-spreader, going into everyone's houses and touching their stuff. Sorry kids.