Covid-19

[tetsujin1979]

I've never realised how much I enjoy watching old footage of Chris Benoit.

Check out the recent "dark side of the ring" episode about him

[osarusan]

That means there's very few in the untested general population who are carrrying the virus.
Therefore it does looks promising for football league competitions to proceed as planned on June 6th, if the LOI is still in handbrake mode my local team could do with a loan of Jack Byrne, i.e. if he can handle the upward adjustment.
I actually don't see how that promising, as it means that the vast majority of the population are still vulnerable to infection, doesn't it?

I think what a lot of people are hoping is that the virus is actually much more prevalent in general population than we think, and that much more people have had it (suffering only mildly or not at all) and are now immune to it than we think.

Unfortunately, there are questions now about whether even having it and recovering from it results in immunity to it.

[John83]

I actually don't see how that promising, as it means that the vast majority of the population are still vulnerable to infection, doesn't it?
They might actually be able to eradicate it on the island. I think I read that they're leading the world for tests per capital. As long as they keep the borders closed ... so no Jack Byrne!

[pineapple stu]

They've tested 1/8th of the population (as has the Faroes).

We've tested 1.8% by comparison, the Yanks have tested 1.2% and the Brits are at 0.7%.

Keeping the borders closed is the harder part though. Where will all the wives come from for starters?

[John83]

Where will all the wives come from for starters?
My understanding of Iceland is that the fishermen don't use them while they're at sea, so there's enough to go around.

[geysir]

I actually don't see how that promising, as it means that the vast majority of the population are still vulnerable to infection, doesn't it?

I think what a lot of people are hoping is that the virus is actually much more prevalent in general population than we think, and that much more people have had it (suffering only mildly or not at all) and are now immune to it than we think.

Unfortunately, there are questions now about whether even having it and recovering from it results in immunity to it.

"Promising for football league competitions to proceed as planned on June 6th".
It's not as if the virus would be eradicated but it would have run its course for now as an active agent. I think that's the main precondition for sport to commence.

Strange as it may seem, tourists/visiting professional footballers (eg. Jack) are exempt from the advised 2 week quarantine for returnees, it's a medical fact here that such people are not regarded as a viral threat :)

[osarusan]

"Promising for football league competitions to proceed as planned on June 6th".
It's not as if the virus would be eradicated but it would have run its course for now as an active agent. I think that's the main precondition for sport to commence.

Strange as it may seem, tourists/visiting professional footballers (eg. Jack) are exempt from the advised 2 week quarantine for returnees, it's a medical fact here that such people are not regarded as a viral threat :)

Sorry, I misunderstood and thought you were talking about football in general getting back up and running, not just in Iceland.

[geysir]

Probably that's what Ireland will be looking at, lifting restrictions completely over a 6 week period from the time the new confirmed case rate has bottomed out.

[samhaydenjr]

Hi everyone, I'm following developments from Canada - and the numbers in Ireland are actually shocking. The government is getting praise as are the Public Health Officers, yet with over 15000 cases, Ireland's per capita rate is higher than The States and The UK, it's nearly half the figure of here in Canada. Comparably sized countries have a fraction of Ireland's total - Croatia is under 2000, Slovenia under 1500, New Zealand has absolutely crushed the curve and has been in single-figures for new cases for the past week. So can anybody pinpoint what's going on that has caused the figures to be so high - is there a failure of public policy? Are people defying public health recommendations in large numbers? Did that last rush to the pubs lead to high community transmission? Or was it the thousands returning from Cheltenham?

[pineapple stu]

You can't compare our figures with the US and the UK, who aren't taking it remotely as seriously.

For a start, the Brits are only including deaths in a hospital, and I think the US are the same. More than half our recorded deaths are in nursing homes - which are explicitly not included in the US/UK figures. They weren't included in the French figures either, and then a week ago they added them in and their death toll increased from 500 per day to 1,500 for one day.

Our testing figures are 2-3 times what the US/UK rates are too, so it's only natural that there'd be more cases found here. The reality is that infection rates in the US and the UK are way higher than being reported.

[tetsujin1979]

Thread on twitter about it here: https://mobile.twitter.com/Care2much18/status/1252819591090155523
Basically, we're including all deaths from the virus, but other countries are (e.g. UK) are only including hospital deaths, or disregarding unconfirmed cases

[Kingdom]

In the US, I know one example from two weeks ago, where a large production plant in a mid-west State had approx 250 positive tests among it's employees causing the plant to be shut down, and this figure accounted for more than half of the hitherto confirmed cases in the state itself at that point.
I thought that to be eye-opening.

[jbyrne]

Or was it the thousands returning from Cheltenham?

no one can be sure but it was reported last week that there was a cluster in westmeath that could be strongly linked to cheltenham...
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/curious-tale-of-one-countys-covid-19-caseload-39121412.html

it was completely stupid to let it proceed as it did and the attempts by the horsey people to justify the decision is a nonsense.

interesting article re cheltenham here...
https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/racing/calls-for-uk-inquiry-into-decision-to-let-cheltenham-go-ahead-1.4234957

[osarusan]

Hi everyone, I'm following developments from Canada - and the numbers in Ireland are actually shocking. The government is getting praise as are the Public Health Officers, yet with over 15000 cases, Ireland's per capita rate is higher than The States and The UK, it's nearly half the figure of here in Canada. Comparably sized countries have a fraction of Ireland's total - Croatia is under 2000, Slovenia under 1500, New Zealand has absolutely crushed the curve and has been in single-figures for new cases for the past week. So can anybody pinpoint what's going on that has caused the figures to be so high - is there a failure of public policy? Are people defying public health recommendations in large numbers? Did that last rush to the pubs lead to high community transmission? Or was it the thousands returning from Cheltenham?

Irish response was slow off the mark initially, allowed flights to land from Italy for a rugby match that was eventually cancelled, and allowed the Cheltenham crowd home without (to the best of my knowledge) any checks or tracking of their subsequent contacts or movements. That probably contributed a lot. Since measures were taken, I think they've been followed by and large, although there are always exceptions...but maybe the cat was out of the bag by then. I'm not convinced the govt are deserving of all the praise they are getting for their response myself.

Apart from that, as Stu said, our testing levels are higher than most, and when you test more, you find more cases. In all countries, the actual rate of infection will be higher than the recorded rate, but the more you test, the close the latter gets to the former.

[jbyrne]

Irish response was slow off the mark initially, allowed flights to land from Italy for a rugby match that was eventually cancelled, and allowed the Cheltenham crowd home without (to the best of my knowledge) any checks or tracking of their subsequent contacts or movements. That probably contributed a lot. Since measures were taken, I think they've been followed by and large, although there are always exceptions...but maybe the cat was out of the bag by then. I'm not convinced the govt are deserving of all the praise they are getting for their response myself.

Apart from that, as Stu said, our testing levels are higher than most, and when you test more, you find more cases. In all countries, the actual rate of infection will be higher than the recorded rate, but the more you test, the close the latter gets to the former.

to be fair we were one of the first countries in Europe to call off a big sporting event (Italy match) which decision was made fully two weeks before cheltenham took place. however, it seemed daft not to also ban flights from italy at the same time as a lot of the italian supporters still made their way here.

[tetsujin1979]

I think the flights were not cancelled because the assumption was they were coming here for the game, and if there's no game, then why come here? That's just my opinion, I haven't read anything from the government to support it.

You could ask a similar question about the pubs here - why did the government still allow them to open if you couldn't have more than 100 people inside? It wasn't until the the videos from Temple Bar went around that they realised they couldn't trust people to stay away, or pubs to keep to the new occupancy limits, so they were shut.

One thing I've noticed is that there's been more coverage of the Liverpool - Athletico game and its role in the numbers of positive cases in Liverpool than the amount of coverage of Cheltenham. I wonder why that is?
Could be that I read far more football-related media than horse racing.

[geysir]

A separate test should to be done on a random selection of the untested population, 4,000 should be enough in order to get an idea of what's happening with the general public.

Another one is to record recoveries and have a visible graph over a period of time showing the numbers of recovered v confirmed active cases, then one can simply see where Ireland stands. That's much more informative than to have to listen to a politician drone vague nonsense about how good we are at flattening the curve, or a medic honestly saying we don't do those figures in Ireland / we assume they recover over time.

Hire and train people to do the work, print out a medically qualified questionnaire, make contact with the people already confirmed, collect data on symptoms experienced if any and what was the date of full recovery - absence of symptoms.

[osarusan]

A separate test should to be done on a random selection of the untested population, 4,000 should be enough in order to get an idea of what's happening with the general public.
Germany did something similar to this - tested the population of a town called Gangelt. Selection of the town was not random, as it was a hotspot for Covid-19, but they randomly selected 1000 of the population of the town, and between 15-16% tested positive for either the virus or the antibodies.

[geysir]

Germany did something similar to this - tested the population of a town called Gangelt. Selection of the town was not random, as it was a hotspot for Covid-19, but they randomly selected 1000 of the population of the town, and between 15-16% tested positive for either the virus or the antibodies.
That virus test wouldn't be reflective of Germany as a whole. I suspect the antibody test will not be an accurate reflection of immunity. Virus tests are done via a nose & throat swab but if a confirmed case develops no symptoms, that means the virus has been dealt with by the first line of defence - the innate immunity, and no antibodies would be called into play. The stats could be adjusted to include the number of those people who had tested positive - developed no symptoms - who are immune but have no antibody activity.


I see that Ireland has just released data on the numbers of recovered and it looks positive, that the peak has been reached, but another 7 days should confirm.
If so, then the slope back down should move at the same pace as the upward slope.

[pineapple stu]

If so, then the slope back down should move at the same pace as the upward slope.
It's the slope back up again that I'm more worried about.

[geysir]

It's the slope back up again that I'm more worried about.
A 2nd peak or 2nd wave?

We don't know what will happen afterwards should this situation be managed well and the contagion threat peters out, but you'd have to think that some important lessons to protect the elder citizens will have been learned even if the economy turn to (Pol) pot.

Here's a 'you never would have thought would happen'
if you do a web search on smoking and corona infection risk, the bells ring all over the WWW warning of the high susceptability of smokers , what horrible fate they are or will suffer etc.etc. In France some investigation (https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nicotine-patches-to-be-tested-on-patients-after-study-suggests-smokers-less-likely-to-catch-covid-19-11977460) shows that smokers "are less likely to catch the disease." Now they want to do tests with prescribing nicotine patches.

[tetsujin1979]

There's also some numbers that suggest that infected smokers have a higher mortality rate

[pineapple stu]

Well it does attack the lungs. Stands to reason smokers would be harder hit

[pineapple stu]

A 2nd peak or 2nd wave
A second peak particularly.

We went from 2 to 17000 cases in six weeks.

It's almost impossible to get to a situation with no cases again given some people are asympyomatic.

So if things go back to normal - with football and holidays and stuff - then there's no reason cases wouldn't rise every bit as quickly

[Kingdom]

Can I ask what people think about vaccines on this subject?
I understand that some will be completely pro- and anti-vaccination in general and the arguments for both.
I am vaccinated, and get the flu-jab every year due to an underlying condition. kids all have had the mmr and bcg's and what-not.

But if a vaccine is offered for covid-19, I have to be honest, I'd think twice. I'd much prefer to continue practising self-isolation, e-working etc, than getting a vaccine that couldn't have been put to the same sort of testing standards that other vaccine's would have subjected to (over a period of time).
That said, I do believe in listening to medical advice, but I'd be interested to hear opinions from those a bit more clued in than me.

Just as an aside, here in Brussels, there does feel like the foot is off the pedal somewhat. More cars on the streets. more clusters of people in the evening time. Even a leaked suggestion of the relaxing measures which annoyed a lot of people (assumed it was leaked by those against the prospects), while it seems that there is a bit more complacency too in Ireland listening to some friends from home?

[passinginterest]

After the Swine flu vaccine was rushed through and the subsequent narcolepsy links I'd certainly have some worries about being in the first wave to receive a new vaccine. I'm fully pro vaccine too, although I haven't had a flu one of any kind yet.

Seems to be a little bit of complacency but not too much, definitely a lot more anecdotal reports about more traffic, and I get the impression more people are doing little visits to family etc. that wouldn't have been considered a week or two ago. Met two groups of lads yesterday, clearly heading for a game of ball, while out for a walk.

[D24Saint]

I though RTE’s report about increased seismic activity this week due to more people on the streets was hilarious , using seismic activity as evidence is a new one in Ireland.

[dahamsta]

There's also some numbers that suggest that infected smokers have a higher mortality rate

And just to really feck with you, French researchers are theorising that nicotine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus) could reduce risk. Fun times!

[geysir]

There's also some numbers that suggest that infected smokers have a higher mortality rate
I doubt if there is anyone arguing against that there is a higher mortality rate of smokers who do get infected and develop symptoms.
The French experience was that in proportion, fewer smokers get infected in the first place, therefore fewer get to the serious stage, therefore their experiment with the nicotine patch.
Perhaps it's just the repellent aroma of Gitanes and Gauloises that has the hitherto unknown virus repellent effect.

I heard a report from a HSE homeless spokesperson (bias alert) on radio this morning, nevertheless it was very positive report on the pro active policy of HSE in assisting the needs of the homeless. Not one has died yet, despite (his words) a homeless person is likely to be 10 years older, many with preexisting conditions and obviously living in poor unhygienic conditions.

[geysir]

A second peak particularly.

We went from 2 to 17000 cases in six weeks.

It's almost impossible to get to a situation with no cases again given some people are asympyomatic.

So if things go back to normal - with football and holidays and stuff - then there's no reason cases wouldn't rise every bit as quickly
There are reasons, a rational process a country can follow to manage a return to a stable form of "normalcy".
The virus tests reveal confirmed cases which also happen to be asymptomatic.
It stands to reason that after existing cases have recovered and tests show there are no new cases, that also means there should be no new asymptomatic cases.
And in a transition period from a level 3 lock down to a level 2 lock down, any hidden asymptomatic cases would have revealed themselves should they be troublesome.

[pineapple stu]

It stands to reason that after existing cases have recovered and tests show there are no new cases, that also means there should be no new asymptomatic cases.
How do you show there are no cases? The only way is to test everyone, and then test every single person entering the country. That's not practical, even for a small country like Iceland.

"Any hidden asymptomatic cases would have revealed themselves" is a sentence which contradicts itself. Do you think the virus will jump up and say "Hello" like a kid who's won at hide-and-seek? The only way it would reveal itself is indirectly, by making someone else symptomatic, and then you're back to square one.

I don't see anything in your post to cause me to share your optimism I'm afraid.

[John83]

South Korea kept a lid on this for a while with aggressive contact tracing and testing. It only really got out of hand when that cultist spread it to hundreds of people. They might be able to keep it bubbling under for a while - at least stretch the gaps between lockdowns - that way.

[peadar1987]

I doubt if there is anyone arguing against that there is a higher mortality rate of smokers who do get infected and develop symptoms.
The French experience was that in proportion, fewer smokers get infected in the first place, therefore fewer get to the serious stage, therefore their experiment with the nicotine patch.
Perhaps it's just the repellent aroma of Gitanes and Gauloises that has the hitherto unknown virus repellent effect.

I heard a report from a HSE homeless spokesperson (bias alert) on radio this morning, nevertheless it was very positive report on the pro active policy of HSE in assisting the needs of the homeless. Not one has died yet, despite (his words) a homeless person is likely to be 10 years older, many with preexisting conditions and obviously living in poor unhygienic conditions.

I think the most likely thing is that there is a far greater proportion of smokers in rural communities, and the virus is obviously going to spread a lot more slowly in places with lower population density (potentially another reason why Ireland has done okay compared to some of our European neighbours)

[geysir]

How do you show there are no cases? The only way is to test everyone, and then test every single person entering the country. That's not practical, even for a small country like Iceland.

"Any hidden asymptomatic cases would have revealed themselves" is a sentence which contradicts itself. Do you think the virus will jump up and say "Hello" like a kid who's won at hide-and-seek? The only way it would reveal itself is indirectly, by making someone else symptomatic, and then you're back to square one.
I mentioned testing. It is by way of testing in that 4 week transition period that any viral activity is revealed, thousands of tests carried out even though there are no new cases, that's how any medical authorities can decide to very confident level whether the virus is still an active threat or not.



I don't see anything in your post to cause me to share your optimism I'm afraid.
I am not necessarily optimistic, I am stating the the case for a recovery of sorts as I understand how the process can happen.
There is another type of optimism, a foolish optimism, believing that a magic bullet an effective vaccine will appear (against all odds) and be the solution, there are people who claim nothing can proceed in society until the vaccine appears. To me that's defeatist and irrational. Irrational in the sense that enormous efforts have already failed to discover an effective vaccine for this type of virus and defeatist in that nothing of substance can be achieved with old fashioned manual labour.

Today I listened to a podcast with Prof Paddy Mallon. I came back to this tread to give you the link as he explains the practicalities of how Ireland can recover to some decent functioning level.
episode 705 where Dunphy talks to Prof Paddy Mallon (https://soundcloud.com/thestandwitheamondunphy/ep-705-paddy-mallon),

[geysir]

I think the most likely thing is that there is a far greater proportion of smokers in rural communities, and the virus is obviously going to spread a lot more slowly in places with lower population density (potentially another reason why Ireland has done okay compared to some of our European neighbours)
Most probably there is some other reason to explain the lower rate of smokers being affected by the virus than their nicotine levels.
Nevertheless, I'm a little curious to read about the results of the nicotine patch trial. I would be more curious if it was some other substance, like pure extract of organically grown cannabis leaf (high potency without the down side) grown in the clean atmosphere of the Andes or the Himalayas.

[pineapple stu]

I mentioned testing. It is by way of testing in that 4 week transition period that any viral activity is revealed, thousands of tests carried out even though there are no new cases, that's how any medical authorities can decide to very confident level whether the virus is still an active threat or not.
The reality is that that can't be practical though. Iceland has done more testing than anywhere else in the world per capita, but it's still only tested 13.5% of the population. 86.5% haven't been tested. Yes, you can conduct thousands of random tests per day, but it only takes a couple of people to be missed and the thing will start to creep up again, at least to the stage where some restrictions are required. And that's ignoring foreign visitors, and delays between testing and results of course.


There is another type of optimism, a foolish optimism, believing that a magic bullet an effective vaccine will appear (against all odds) and be the solution
I don't understand this logic. Why would it be "against all odds" that a vaccine (or a cure - which is different, but would have the same ultimate outcome, so I'll group them here) be found? We have found vaccines/cures for lots of things, and there's probably more focus on a vaccine for this than there has been for any other illness in history. It will take time of course, but it will hardly be "against all odds" if/when it's found.

Testing appears to be very important, but it seems impossible to test to the stage where the infection level is nil, and that's what would be required. Continual testing without a vaccine is pretty much an impossible win. The two together is what's going to turn the tide on this, as far as I can see.

[geysir]

The reality is that that can't be practical though. Iceland has done more testing than anywhere else in the world per capita, but it's still only tested 13.5% of the population. 86.5% haven't been tested. Yes, you can conduct thousands of random tests per day, but it only takes a couple of people to be missed and the thing will start to creep up again, at least to the stage where some restrictions are required. And that's ignoring foreign visitors, and delays between testing and results of course.
Listen to the interview with Prof Paddy on the podcast I linked.
Continued testing after the rate of new infections drops to zero would reveal asymptomatic cases and over a 4 week period one would get a fair idea of the amount (if any) of so called hidden cases in the population, any potential troublesome hidden cases would have emerged and become an issue before taking the decision to transition towards a level 2 lock down.


I don't understand this logic. Why would it be "against all odds" that a vaccine (or a cure - which is different, but would have the same ultimate outcome, so I'll group them here) be found? We have found vaccines/cures for lots of things, and there's probably more focus on a vaccine for this than there has been for any other illness in history. It will take time of course, but it will hardly be "against all odds" if/when it's found.

Testing appears to be very important, but it seems impossible to test to the stage where the infection level is nil, and that's what would be required. Continual testing without a vaccine is pretty much an impossible win. The two together is what's going to turn the tide on this, as far as I can see.


"against all odds" if/when it's found." IF/ When ?? If an effective vacccine is found then no problem, but I wrote it's against all odds that an effective vaccine will be discovered for this particular type of virus, and become the magic bullet solution to the current serious dilemma. So far, this type of virus had avoided all exhaustive efforts to discover an effective vaccine.

Do you envisage keeping a population in a permanent lock down while gambling for a theoretical effective solution somewhere down the line?
A modern version of Waiting for a Godot? :)
Listen to the podcast I linked, the professor who is deeply involved in vaccine research explains in more detail why keeping a total lock down in the hope for an effective vaccine magic bullet to appear is a long shot gamble. He outlines a way forward that has more practical steps and should an effective vaccine appear after 18 months, then all the better.

[pineapple stu]

The link is timing out.

The reality is that every indication so far is restrictions will continue until a vaccine or cure is found. The CMO is saying it (https://www.newstalk.com/news/holohan-restrictions-one-kind-another-will-remain-covid-19-vaccine-mass-produced-999307) ("it might not be possible to produce a vaccine against this virus, although that's unlikely" - Anthony Staines, Professor of Health Systems at DCU), it's the cornerstone of the WHO's activities (https://www.who.int/teams/blueprint/covid-19), the BBC are noting three ways for this to end (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51963486), and mass testing to reduce cases to zero isn't one.

The reality is that the rate of new infections isn't going to reach zero any time soon. It hasn't reached zero in China yet for example.

Can we reach - with a lot of testing - a stage where we catch a re-surge in the bud? Maybe - but we're hoping to get up to 100k tests per week, so it would take a year to test the whole country for example. And that's not counting the 10m tourists that visit each year. Is that level of testing enough to keep this thing down? I don't see how it can be. And it surely must assume social distancing - no pubs, no sports events, no festivals, controls on public transport - to keep transmission low. Is that really such a big difference from what we have now?

Can we keep a permanent lockdown? Of course not, and I'm not arguing that. But the reality, given how quickly this all erupted in Ireland in the first place, has to be that a lift of lockdown will sooner or later result in an increase of cases and another lockdown. I think a second wave is inevitable, and talk that this has reached its peak, as you suggest, is wide of the mark. In my opinion of course. But I can't come to the same optimistic conclusion as you have.

John83 posted here a chart from an MIT study which I put in the main forum, and have put here as well. I think it's a very logical possibility.

https://cdn.technologyreview.com/i/images/periodic-social-distancing_0.jpg?sw=616&cx=0&cy=0&cw=1245&ch=762

[John83]

John83 posted here a chart from an MIT study which I put in the main forum, and have put here as well. I think it's a very logical possibility.
Just to note, the article was on MIT's Technology Review, but I think it was based on work from Imperial College London.

[sidewayspasser]

If this on-off pattern for the lockdown is what we'll get in the future (and I also think that's a possibility), I would hope that we learn over time which measures are helpful and which are useless, so that they can be adjusted based on what we learn,which would hopefully lessen the negative impacts on economy and society.

[backstothewall]

A friend of mine's mum died of it this morning.

She wasn't terrible old, but suffered from pretty severe CPOD. Pretty heavy smoker in years gone by apparently, but for all that it wasn't her time yet.

She had moved in with my friend and they had been isolating since this began, but somehow it got her.

I only found out that she had it last night so it's all been a bit of a shock. Obviously all the usual stuff of wake and funeral are out of the question so I've no idea what I'm supposed to do now. Every human instinct wants you to go the house to pay respects and offer a sympathetic face, but that exactly what the virus wants us to do.

Powerless to offer even that most modest way. Utterly powerless.

[John83]

Every human instinct wants you to go the house to pay respects and offer a sympathetic face, but that exactly what the virus wants us to do.
I'm sure your friend will be inundated with texts and calls over the next few days. Make sure to check in with them next week though. I expect it is much tougher for some people when things get quieter again.

[D24Saint]

Was reading through the new guidelines for pubs to open and reckon they aren’t workable or viable. I’d like the opinion of someone from the bar trade on here. I’d say they won’t allow half to even attempt to reopen and those they do won’t be for long as I can’t see how they can make a profit.

[geysir]

I came across an article (https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/27/Coronavirus-mutates-into-40-strains-How-this-changes-the-pandemic-outlook-Exp)from mid March reporting that the deCode Gentic institution in Iceland had discovered 40 different variants of the virus. Allowing for my knowledge in these matters is virus sized, of interest (to me) was that each variant left a fingerprint of sorts allowing easier traceability.

One of the variations was found on 7 people who attended a football match in England (Liverpool v Atletico), the Anfield mutation - perhaps complete with a scouse accent?

Kári Stefánsson, director of DeCode Genetics, said, “We can see how viruses mutate. We have found 40 island-specific virus mutations … We found someone who had a mixture of viruses.”

Stefánsson added, “Some came from Austria. There is another type from people who were infected in Italy. And there is a third type of virus found in people infected in England. Seven people had attended a football match in England.”

[samhaydenjr]

Hi everyone, I just thought I'd drop in and revisit my question about why the number of cases is so high in Ireland (still per capita higher than the US, the UK and Italy, and around the same as Spain), although I am hugely relieved to see new cases finally dropping towards a manageable figure. Thanks for all your thoughts on the various factors, but having looked at the numbers in more detail, I would have to point at the "Delay Phase" from March 12-27, when businesses were allowed to stay open and the number of cases went from 70 to 2121 before the "Stay at Home" phase was implemented, which meant that the high figures Ireland has seen became locked in. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland#Delay_Phase :_12%E2%80%9327_March

This is how three similarly-sized countries dealt with it:
New Zealand's equivalent of the "Delay phase" lasted two days and they were locked down from when they had 205 confirmed or probable cases. They have been in single-figures for new cases for a couple of weeks now and their total case load stands at 1147
In Croatia, by March 19th, all non-essential services had been shut down - their caseload at this point was 105 - they now have 2200 cases total and are already opening up.
Slovenia, which shares a land border with Italy, had gone into lockdown mode by March 16th when it had 253 cases. It now has 1460.

I believe now that this delay in Ireland was absolutely instrumental in leading to infection rates that are far higher than were necessary and that the rationale behind it by the government, along with possibly the attitude of the general population when it comes to taking threats like this seriously, should be the focus of serious scrutiny in the very near future. Ireland needs to be better prepared, logistically and in attitude, to react to a potential second wave and future pandemics because, unfortunately, both are likely to occur.

[pineapple stu]

I think you should be referring to the "reported cases" in the US and UK in particular in fairness.

Not to say that your other points doesn't have merit, and obviously the nature of things is that pretty much every reported figure is wrong to some extent, but I don't think comparing reported figures here against the US/UK is really comparing like with like.

[Eminence Grise]

Partly it’s testing: we’re testing more per capita than a lot of other countries. Three factors may have contributed to our numbers: not cancelling flights from Italy for the rugby, Cheltenham and clusters in nursing homes. Four, when you realise we have the second lowest number of hospital beds per 100,000 of population in the EU (https://www.statista.com/chart/7495/germany-leads-europe-in-hospital-bed-capacity/) (I read a few years ago that we had fewer hospital beds for a then population of c4.6m than in the late ‘80s, with a population of c3.5m).

We won’t know for maybe a year the full effect. But: as PS said you need to look at reported numbers of infections/deaths versus actual, and what is signed on a death cert. The US is a grim joke, the UK is perilously close to disinformation as policy. Mrs Grise (still front line, but so far dodging bullets, though there was one hairy moment…) read somewhere yesterday day the UK’s excess mortality for this period is c.52,000 more than the average of the last five years; their reported deaths from Covid-19 yesterday was c.32,000. That 20k won’t all be Covid-19 – it’s a worry that people with other conditions are not going for treatment, or may not be getting it – but a high percentage will be.



This is from RTE last week on our excess mortality. (https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0506/1136898-explainer-excess-mortality-and-how-its-calculated/) Might help add context to your figures. Your point on NZ is good, but remember: they don't share a porous land border with a country that doesn't know its ar5e from its elbow and had an ideological (idiotological?) attachment to herd immunity. The others you mention seemed to have acted very decisively and hopefully will reap the benefits long term.

[passinginterest]

It's very hard to know what's good or bad, right or wrong in so many of these cases. There's so many inconsistencies in the data too, especially when it comes to categorising Covid deaths. NZ stopped it getting in but can they keep it out if there's still no vaccine or cure? How long can they stay locked down enough? Sweden may see a 'benefit' in terms of not being as badly impacted by a second wave, as might other countries who delayed lockdown. In many ways we seem to have managed it well, we had extremely limited capacity in ICU and we reached close to it but didn't get overwhelmed, the community spread in residential care facilities has been the single biggest mistake. Unfortunately, we're probably looking at two years down the line before we can see who got it right or wrong, in terms of mortality and spread and even longer to see the long term impacts on economies, employment, mental health and secondary mortality due to delays in treatment of other illnesses. It's a strange world we're living in. I terms of ongoing management mass testing and a 24 hour turn around appears to be key, with contact tracing within 72 hours.

One of the pluses that might hopefully emerge is much more trust and flexibility from office based employers in terms of working from home and alternative working options. Most places seem to have adapted much better than they ever would have anticipated.

[Mr A]

I can see the logic in delaying lockdown as long as possible- especially because as it goes on you can see it starting to slip. It's noticeable there are more groups around, especially younger folks (no doubt the leaving cert cancellation played a part here). Overall compliance has been really good but every time I do the shopping I see more evidence it's not being taken as seriously as it was at the start.

[tetsujin1979]

i'm a bit worried about that, when the restrictions are lifted, it'll be like a dam bursting. Where I live, it's been more or less adhered to, but I still see more people on the street some days.
If they're given an inch, will people take a mile?