General Election 2020

[peadar1987]

Just to give anecdotal evidence, a sibling of mine voted SF for the first time, and was immediately put off by both what you reference and the "Come Out Ye Black and Tans" stuff at another count, enough that they expressed concern about what they voted for. They wouldn't be a politico or a dyed-in-the-wool republican, voted for SF primarily because of their economic pledges, and couldn't care less about Irish unity. It's perfectly possible that such voters could get scared off if that section of Sinn Fein is a bit too, shall we say, rambunctious in a government.

You'd hope that their vote would go to Labour, SocDem or PBP though, and not back to FF/FG

[backstothewall]

But confidence and supply hasn't been ruled out I see...

Interesting that Labour have ruled themselves out of government, but presumably they'd vote the way of a SF government anyway. A new leader might change course as well (Kelly doesn't strike me as a man to be happy in opposition for example).

Just to give anecdotal evidence, a sibling of mine voted SF for the first time, and was immediately put off by both what you reference and the "Come Out Ye Black and Tans" stuff at another count, enough that they expressed concern about what they voted for. They wouldn't be a politico or a dyed-in-the-wool republican, voted for SF primarily because of their economic pledges, and couldn't care less about Irish unity. It's perfectly possible that such voters could get scared off if that section of Sinn Fein is a bit too, shall we say, rambunctious in a government.

On the subject of the Ra...

I've always been of the opinion that the SF vote is a coalition of people voting for them in spite of the activities of the provos, and another group voting for them because of the activities of the provos.

But is there an extent to which a big chunk of Irish society, are happy enough for it to exist as long as they can be put away when the neighbours come round?

Belfast is a different place, but I've been in the company of the IRA before. I've never felt in any way threatened or in any danger from them. These days they are mainly boys in their 50s & 60s who take more interest in Scottish football than most people. They aren't typically keen on drugs but most see little harm in a bit of weed. They are different from the criminal gangs Love/Hate was based on.

Whatever about the questions of whether they still have an army council or not, the same old lads are still drinking Guinness together in the same pubs together.

With kids being chopped up and bits of them left in holdalls by the side of the road, do a lot of us see those old lads down the pub as a last line of defence who can do things the Gaurds or the PSNI can't?

Does that explain why we didn't flinch as a country over the Paul Quinn thing?

[sbgawa]

I think we did flinch because the last poll had them at 25 and heading north, it was a momentum killer but nothing more.
To the majority of people under 50 the troubles is like reading about the second world war or the Korean war, they just don;t care.
With a second election Shin Fein will win more seats but at the expense of the loony left in PBP and also at the expense of Labour and Soc Dems plus independents.
The vote left transfer left thing worked for the left...would FF FG have the nerve to ask their supporters to transfer to each other...if they did the seat bonus that this could bring would help them both.
Could be a 3 way tie again but this time in the low to mid 40's if the transfer pact worked for the centre as well as it did for the left

[DeLorean]

Just to give anecdotal evidence, a sibling of mine voted SF for the first time, and was immediately put off by both what you reference and the "Come Out Ye Black and Tans" stuff at another count, enough that they expressed concern about what they voted for. They wouldn't be a politico or a dyed-in-the-wool republican, voted for SF primarily because of their economic pledges, and couldn't care less about Irish unity. It's perfectly possible that such voters could get scared off if that section of Sinn Fein is a bit too, shall we say, rambunctious in a government.

I can relate to this. I didn't give SF any vote in the end, as I'm not mad about the candidate in my constituency, but I would've been tempted to throw something their way otherwise, having never done previously. Whatever about the fella shouting 'Up the Ra' in the pub, the tricolours and 'Come Out Ye Black & Tans' nonsense in the count centre was deflating to look at, so I'm glad I didn't.

[sbgawa]

The Shin Fein press officers will try but its too late to house train the likes of Dessie Ellis.
Mary Lou should do a "democratic Left" on it (for those of you old enough to remember)
She should leave Shin Fein with all the new young socialist types and from a new party without the old Nordie Ra sympathisers.
If Eoin O Brin , Pearse Doherty etc did'nt have all the Republican BS hanging around them they would be better for it

[NeverFeltBetter]

Reading the comments from various party leaders today, getting a distinct sense of "No you do it" from everyone. Something will have to give at some point.

I note that the Seanad electoral process is currently beginning, to be done in late March. They can't call another election until that's done, right?

[D24Saint]

Reading the comments from various party leaders today, getting a distinct sense of "No you do it" from everyone. Something will have to give at some point.

I note that the Seanad electoral process is currently beginning, to be done in late March. They can't call another election until that's done, right?

Had a quick glance at the constitution and it mentions dissolution of the Dail stating it has no set minimum duration, the part I read makes no mention of the oireachtas in general. It’s dissolution requires the Presidents consent of course.

[The Fly]

I think we did flinch because the last poll had them at 25 and heading north, it was a momentum killer but nothing more.
To the majority of people under 50 the troubles is like reading about the second world war or the Korean war, they just don;t care.
With a second election Shin Fein will win more seats but at the expense of the loony left in PBP and also at the expense of Labour and Soc Dems plus independents.
The vote left transfer left thing worked for the left...would FF FG have the nerve to ask their supporters to transfer to each other...if they did the seat bonus that this could bring would help them both.
Could be a 3 way tie again but this time in the low to mid 40's if the transfer pact worked for the centre as well as it did for the left


The Shin Fein press officers will try but its too late to house train the likes of Dessie Ellis.
Mary Lou should do a "democratic Left" on it (for those of you old enough to remember)
She should leave Shin Fein with all the new young socialist types and from a new party without the old Nordie Ra sympathisers.
If Eoin O Brin , Pearse Doherty etc did'nt have all the Republican BS hanging around them they would be better for it

:stop:

[ArdeeBhoy]

Any thoughts on how it all panned out?

And saw a photo of Martin and his wife earlier, inferring they 'both deserve our sympathy'?

Anyone know what this refers to, please?

[nigel-harps1954]

It is what it is.

If they actually manage to follow through on their promises and the agreements made between the three parties, it might not be terrible. But I have little, to no hope, of it all actually happening.

We'll be back at the polls, complaining again, and voting in the same tossers again, in a few years.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I dunno. We've never had a situation where one of FF or FG wasn't the leader of the opposition and able to hoover up the public support such a position automatically gets you, and the Greens will suffer another electoral backlash if they don't implode first. If the various strands of the left keep up the pressure and hammer the government at every turn, and then encourage "Vote left, transfer left" tactics when it comes to it, you could see them having enough to form a government next time. That's what gives me hope, not Eamonn Ryan as Minister for Transport.

[Eminence Grise]

And saw a photo of Martin and his wife earlier, inferring they 'both deserve our sympathy'?

Anyone know what this refers to, please?

Any context? Serious or snide? A news photo? Something on social media? I know they lost a child to illness some years ago; it might be that. Hard to know without seeing the photo and caption.

For the first time since the mid-twenties, we've a right of centre government with a left of centre opposition. Maybe we'll get a realignment and bury civil war politics for once and for all. Maybe.

It's all well and good talking about the Greens imploding (and the newbies really disappointed me in the negotiations - it's a big jump from being the hurler on the ditch to senior hurling, and some need to wise up fast or they won;t be around long enough to qualify for a Dáil pension), but the left aren't exactly models of consistency either. The Shinners have too many first time TDs - many who were't expecting to be elected won't have the ability to make the step up (Labour's problem in 2011). The living corpse that is Labour (I'm sorry to see the party so depleted and removed from what it was years ago, pre-DL), Boyd Barrett's Alphabet Spaghetti outfit, Paul Murphy, a scattering of independents with the majority being right of centre localists/opportunists.... I don't have much hope for a consolidated left any day soon.

The FG-LAB-DL rainbow coalition was stable enough and did pretty well (not perfect, there were glitches, but it didn't eff up the economy) so maybe this one will muddle through as well. Balance the books, don't hurt the vulnerable, improve health services even fractionally, the market is sorting out rents (there's going to be a hell of a lot of empty student properties in September) - basically, the manifesto has to be: don't try anything too exciting, just be steady. At heart we're still a conservative (lower case!) country that doesnt like too much change. Three years of plodding certainty ending on an upwards curve would be a good result for the government.

[osarusan]

The FG-LAB-DL rainbow coalition was stable enough and did pretty well (not perfect, there were glitches, but it didn't eff up the economy) so maybe this one will muddle through as well. Balance the books, don't hurt the vulnerable, improve health services even fractionally, the market is sorting out rents (there's going to be a hell of a lot of empty student properties in September) - basically, the manifesto has to be: don't try anything too exciting, just be steady. At heart we're still a conservative (lower case!) country that doesnt like too much change. Three years of plodding certainty ending on an upwards curve would be a good result for the government.
All the while systematicaly exposing the weaknesses and lack of depth in SF, especially regarding many of their 1st time TDs.

FF and FG will want nothing more than to fracture SF and split their vote in as many directions as possible, recapturing as much of the protest vote as they can.

[Eminence Grise]

Bingo. Just as surely as Norma Foley as Education minister is intended to take out at least one of the Healy-Raes. Big local profile, 16 years on the council she's no novice despite being a first time TD. SF's problem is that with three parties in government, the usual barrel-scraping to fill the lower ministries is less. That there's no ministry for Jim O'Callaghan or Dara Calleary says something. The Green's least experienced minister is Roderic O'Gorman, but he's been lecturing in law for years, a councillor, party chairman. Even the junior ministries are going to have some heavyweights in them. SF don't have 15 front benchers capable of landing blows - after Mary Lou, Eoin O'Broin, Pearse Doherty and Louise O'Reilly you're already looking at the subs bench. One or two will rise to the challenge, but that's still only enough to mark half the cabinet at best.

[NeverFeltBetter]

It isn't just Sinn Fein though, the likes of Catherine Murphy, Roisin Shortall, RBB and even, sigh, Alan Kelly can be fairly potent forces in terms of government critique.

I think some people here are overestimating government chances at success. We're likely going into a significant economic contraction, FG poll numbers are going to fall again the more removed we get from the days of lock-down, the Greens have a fairly large part of their memberships that could jump ship very easily and there remains elements of FF that are extremely unhappy at being in coalition at all. A financial downturn, some inter-party squabbles like those that cropped up so often in the last term (and no C&S to hide behind now, when you're part of government, you're part of government), some broken PFG promises on the environment and it could all come crashing down.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Surprised to see the vehemence of some of the comments from those who didn't get any ministerial appointment. I hadn't thought about O'Dea at all, but given that he's the longest serving FF TD (right?), you'd think he'd get something. He must know where some skeletons are buried after all. It won't take much for Martin to be given the metaphorical bullet, and I doubt he'll still be in charge of FF after the Taoiseach position comes up for rotation.

[dahamsta]

Sour grapes on the part of most of them.

If I were Martin, I wouldn't have any of those dinosaurs in the Cabinet either. Many of them had a hand in this country's bankruptcy, O'Dea included.