General Election 2020

[passinginterest]

I'd be of the view that the debate has definitely damaged some of the momentum for Sinn Fein. I don't expect the massive drop they've had from opinion polls in some previous elections, but I expect they will drop back closer to 20%. There's been a gradual change in attitudes towards SF over the last 15 years, they've moved to the left socially and lost some of the very obvious ties to the old IRA. That's made them a lot more palatable to a much wider demographic. There's a large cohort (and I'd include myself here) who've gone from SF being a party that wouldn't even get a preference, to being a lower preference to creeping towards the top. They got a huge boost from the RIC debacle, which seemed to swell a lot of dormant nationalism, added to the fact that they're the only large party offering anything significantly different. I do think some of those that had shifted from higher preference to first preference will slip back as a result of the debate and some of the issues that it brought back to the surface (there's no real excuse for Mary Lou to have been seemingly so unprepared for some very obvious questions). I expect we'll see a FF led government, most likely a reverse of the current confidence and supply agreement. If that doesn't come to pass I think there's a decent chance Martin steps aside and allows a replacement FF leader to form a coalition with SF. It'll be a fascinating election whatever way it falls, there's a feeling that we're at a particularly fragile stage in the economic cycle, and the next government could oversee a genuine period of growth and stability or a complete calamity and a plunge into an even worse recession due to the state of health and housing.

[backstothewall]

They should lean into their position on the Special Criminal Court. It's been condemned by the UN, Amnesty International etc.

It's not a revolutionary idea that people should accused of serious crimes should have the right to a trial in front of a jury of their peers. It's been around since 1972. It's not unlikely that there might be better ways of doing things almost 50 years later.

As for the shadowy figures in the background, quite frankly I'd sooner take my chances with a few old provos than the likes of Seán Gallagher. I don't believe for a second that the culture of the ballot box in one hand and a brown envelope in the other has changed.

[Real ale Madrid]

Ok 1 week on - a good week (according to the odds) makers for SF , a bad one for SOL/PBP

They say:

FF - 55 Seats (+8 From 2016)
FG - 44 Seats (-1)
Sinn Fein - 23 Seats (+1)
Green Party - 9 Seats (+6)
Labour - 7 Seats (NC)
SOL-PBP - 1 Seats (-5)
Social Democrats - 3 Seats (+1)
Aontú - 1 Seat (NC)
Independants - 16 Seats (-7)
1 Ceann Comhairle
1 Seat is Vacant Currently

Same logic as before as regards who is still in contention for seats....

FF in the hunt for 12 seats, and in last place for 9 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
FG in the hunt for 9 seats, and in last place for 10 seats ( slight potential downswing)
SF in the hunt for 6 seats, and in last place for 4 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
Lab in the hunt for 6 seats, and in last place for 3 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
G in the hunt for 8 seats, and in last place for 2 seats ( Potential for Upswing)
SOL / PBP in the hunt for 4 more seats and last place in no area
Independents in the hunt for 11 more seats, and in last place for 4 seats ( Potential upswing )

SF now in position to win a 2nd seat in Donegal, Louth and Dublin Mid-West according to PP.
They now have SOL-PBP outside the seats everywhere except Richard Boyd Barrett in Dún Laoghaire but are still in the hunt in all 5 seats they hold. Paul Murphy is still in with a shout in Dublin South West also - he's listed in my total as an independent.

FF/SF would have 78 seats between them in this model......

This is not my analysis but merely what the bookies are predicting. Will post again next Thursday

So - just a few hours before the moratorium kicks in here how Paddy Power sees it - possibly influenced by a lot of SF money on the back of two opinion polls - but make no mistake - this would be bloodbath for FG and SF's greatest hour for a century.

FF - 58 Seats (+11 From 2016)
FG - 35 Seats (-10)
Sinn Fein - 30 Seats (+8)
Green Party - 10 Seats (+7)
Labour - 6 Seats (-1)
SOL-PBP - 1 Seats (-5)
Social Democrats - 4 Seats (+2)
Aontú - 1 Seat (NC)
Independants - 14 Seats (-9)
1 Ceann Comhairle
1 Seat is Vacant Currently

FF/SF would have a nice handy majority. We will see how it goes.

[sbgawa]

FG greens labour and SF.
happy days

[Real ale Madrid]

Irish Times podcast seem to think that Pascal Donoghue's seat in Dublin central is under threat. They seem to think Mary Lou is in line to double the quota and her transfers will leave Donoghue vulnerable.

Current Odds - 4 Seats

Mary Lou McDonald (SF) 1/50
Gary Gannon (SD) 3/10
Mary Fitzpatrick (FF) 1/3
Paschal Donoghue (FG) 2/5
Nessa Hourigan (G) 1/2
Christy Burke (Ind) 3/1
10/1 Bar the rest

[NeverFeltBetter]

Have seen a good bit of stuff on social media over the last few days about big, big names, as big as Varadkar, worried about their seats, which all seems a bit much to me. If we went by Twitter alone Sinn Fein and Aontu would be getting 80 seats between them.

[ForzaForth]

Anecdotally, a massive swing tomorrow to Sinn Fein in Wexford. Paddy Power now have the Sinn Fein candidate clear favourite to take the first seat in Wexford.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Had a look there, I see Verona Murphy has sneaked into 5th place on the betting odds, with 5 seats to play for: wouldn't that be a kick in the teeth for Fine Gael?

[sbgawa]

If boyd barret and Paul Murphy lose their seats to shin fein it's a great election

[osarusan]

https://img.rasset.ie/00139248-600.jpg

What will the next govt even look like?

[Eminence Grise]

Early likely casualties, based on admittedly incomplete tallies... Shane Ross, Katherine Zappone, Paul Murphy, Joan Burton.

Labour look an old, spent force. Solidarity-PBP-whatever-we're-called-this-week look like being nearly wiped out. Greens look good for big increases. Soc Dems - maybe one or two seat gain? Gary Gannon in with a long-shot shout, but much depends on where Mary Lou McDonald's second prefs go. She's running a 1.5 quota, and her transfers seem to be going on gender lines. Core SF voters traditionally plumped and didn't transfer. Will their new-found voter 'punish' FF and FG with only a 2 or 3? Could see the big two taking final seats based on transfers in that case. But I have a feeling that transfers won't be so easily guessed this time.

I have a hunch, too, given SF's success with the 18-30 voter, that we've seen the last Saturday vote for another century! Everything Vardkar turned to went sour. It'll be some legacy to lead the party to this disaster, not bring in a running mate (first FG leader since FitzGerald to fail) and hand either ministerial seats or lead opposition status to SF.

Edit: I can see the SF 22% FPs being somewhat false. Several candidates are polling far higher than this - mid-thirties and higher - and in the ordinary run of things that would bring in a running mate. Most don't have one, so these votes will spread, and be lost. Can't work with incomplete figures, but these big dogs could be inflating the SF poll by 5% or more, leaving them with something closer to 17% in effectual votes, giving them seats somtwhere in the high twenties. Pure guesswork at this stage, though.

[D24Saint]

Surprised by Murphy struggling , he should do well from Crowes transfers but might not be enough. I’m not surprised by Zappone I didn’t fancy her chances.

[Eminence Grise]

Lack-of-Internal-Solidarity-PBP and Murphy/RISE are both running, so the vote base is split (9% between them on tallies). Soc Dems at 4% are a respectable protest vote that would appeal to more affluent parts of the constituency, harming Labour too. Murphy's vote, I reckon, is a personal one. Crowe's additional votes will have harmed him - maybe he'll benefit from Crowe's surplus. But my caveat on SF transfers remains: these new voters are not SF voters and their second preferences may well 'go home' as it were. Wish I was still involved in active politics! I'd give my left arm to be at a count today!!

The Zapper is symptomatic of an out of touch government. Shes comes across as too intellectual for Irish politics (I think she'd fit into the French ministerial appointment system better, for instance) and wouldn't strike me as particularly good on the door step. There may be a likeability issue. (I know: I'd favour competence over personality guff anyday...) She pulled a stunt last time running from the Senate as a neutral FG appointment that caught FG on the hop. It's not a trick that works twice.

[D24Saint]

RTÉ election coverage isn’t the same without Noel Whelan RIP. I’m preferring Virgin Medias coverage so far.

[Eminence Grise]

Same old faces alright. I mean, Terry Prone....

[passinginterest]

It’s gripping stuff in general. I think we’re heading for FF/SF/Green coalition. Hard to see FF/FG now as both weakened and would risk being wiped out next time. FG are stronger in their no SF stance. I don’t think there’s enough in the left alternatives to form a SF led government. Don’t think anyone saw SF getting over 30 seats. It’s going to be a very interesting week.

[D24Saint]

It’s gripping stuff in general. I think we’re heading for FF/SF/Green coalition. Hard to see FF/FG now as both weakened and would risk being wiped out next time. FG are stronger in their no SF stance. I don’t think there’s enough in the left alternatives to form a SF led government. Don’t think anyone saw SF getting over 30 seats. It’s going to be a very interesting week.

Anything other than FF/SF/Green coalition will have us heading back to the polls. It’s Martins last chance at the big job, I can’t see him passing up the opportunity.

[NeverFeltBetter]

It's been pointed out to me that he will refuse to be the first FF leader to not be Taoiseach, so suspect the party will compromise to get SF on-board.

FG probably won't mind to a certain extent. After nine years in government the only way is down. Varadkar might be better for them as leader of the opposition than he was at Taoiseach. I don't know if anyone else caught the multitude of Pro-Brexit British accounts on social media accounts, that started crowing when SF topped the poll in Leo's constituency. They thought it was FPTP.

Looks like Soc Dems will definitely have 5, and probably 6 depending on how Dublin Central falls. Huge for them.

[nigel-harps1954]

The British reaction to the election in general has been hilarious.

It's no wonder they voted for Brexit when you see how clueless the average Brit is.

[dahamsta]

I hang out on r/ukpolitics on Reddit quite a lot. It's quite remain-biased, but even with that the lack of knowledge about Ireland is crazy. There are a few people there that are aware of our history, but if you averaged it all out, most of them are so out of touch you could say they know less than nothing. And we probably have more awareness of their history (and intelligence about their economy wrt to Brexit) than a good portion of them. It's embarrassing how like the US they've become. No, it would be more accurate to say that it's embarrassing how like the US we've become, and it's dangerous how like the US they've become.

[D24Saint]

The British reaction to the election in general has been hilarious.

It's no wonder they voted for Brexit when you see how clueless the average Brit is.

Its only when you go over there and talk to the average person you realise how little they have a clue about this country or care !

[DeLorean]

It is quite hard to get the head around but maybe it's shouldn't be such a surprise. Are we blinded by the fact that we know so much about them, that we subconsciously expect something similar in return? We're exposed to UK-everything our whole lives.

[The Fly]

It is quite hard to get the head around but maybe it's shouldn't be such a surprise.

I don't find it hard to get my head around at all. Irish politics and current affairs, outside of Troubles related issues, simply don't feature much on the British media landscape. As for the lack of historical knowledge, that's more an indictment of the education system.


Are we blinded by the fact that we know so much about them, that we subconsciously expect something similar in return? We're exposed to UK-everything our whole lives.

I'd say so.

In other news....https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51443191

[osarusan]

Once upon a time, I used to work shift work which involved me getting up an ungodly hour every 3rd week, and while I waited for my lift to work, I'd watch some tv, and the only thing on (any channel) at that time was Euronews. I really noticed then how little Ireland was ever featured at all. NI-related developments and nothing else.

Made me realise how little other Europeans would know about us.

[D24Saint]

Made me realise how little other Europeans would know about us.

In fairness most elections and politics in general outside the US are mundane enough. I’d be able to name a few German political parties and UK obviously but wouldn’t have a clue about Poland or Italy for example.

[The Fly]

So with 2 seats left to fill we have SF on 37, FF on 36 and FG on 35, with the GP on 12.

Sinn Féin certainly left a lot of seats behind and another election wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for them.

[backstothewall]

So with 2 seats left to fill we have SF on 37, FF on 36 and FG on 35, with the GP on 12.

Sinn Féin certainly left a lot of seats behind and another election wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for them.

That's why I think SF will end up leading a leftist minority government. FF will do as they did for Leo and step aside to allow MLMcD to be Taoiseach, in the hope they can pull the rug somewhere down the line when things are looking better for them.

They can do no other. If they go in with FG they will lose the like of Éamon Ó Cuív to SF. If they go in with SF it wouldn't be hard to imagine a few going the other way.

[The Fly]

Final tallies:


Fianna Fáil - 38
Sinn Féin - 37
Fine Gael - 35
Greens - 12
Social Democrats - 6
Labour - 6
Solidarity-PBP - 5
Aontú - 1
Independents4change - 1
Independents 19

[passinginterest]

It's incredibly tightly balance now. No easy route to coalition, there's nowhere near enough for a fully left government (and I don't think that's what the electorate really want either, despite some of the childish stuff along the lines of 'sure let them off to have their Venezuela if that's what they want). I think there's a small majority for a left leaning government, but only marginally further to the left, not into the realms of PBP. I've also no doubt that the negative campaigning by FF and FG drove a sizeable enough number into the arms of SF, with the view that it was a free hit against the Government parties. Despite that if you take the two main parties and the many like minded independents, the majority have still voted centrist.

A return to the polls is risky for everyone. SF could run more candidates, but with the realisation that they could lead a Government some of the protest might run scared, it wouldn't take a huge drop in their first preference votes to see them actually end up losing a few seats (the up the RA stuff etc. not helping). Marginal gains would probably go back to the establishment parties and judging by the transfers the other smaller left parties. We'd likely be not much closer to a clear government formation.

I still think the most likely coalition is FF/SF/Green and probably the SDs to add depth. If SF approach FF with Green and SD already on board, it effectively puts FF in a minority but will likely dangle the carrot of Taoiseach for them. Pretty much all the scenarios look like big risk and questionable reward.

[sbgawa]

Fianna Fáil - 42
Sinn Féin - 50
Fine Gael - 35
Greens - 10
Social Democrats - 3
Labour - 4
Solidarity-PBP - 1
Aontú - 0
Independents 15


This would be my call on another election looking at where other parties SPBP SD Labour + Indos got elected because SF did'nt have enough candidates and also FF were statistically very unfortunate in several places and would hardly lose every bounce of a ball next time.
They might lose a seat or two to FG who people would see as being the only way to vote against SF.
On balance another election might be good to accurately reflect what people want.

[osarusan]

I don't know, another election might hurt those would could have formed a govt but didn't.

As mentioned above, I think for plenty of voters, this was a free hit against FG/FF, and I'm not sure it represents a the seismic shift towards SF and their policies that others think.

I'd guess FF and FG would be happy for SF to form what would be an incredibly unstable and likely short-lived govt, to let the public see what SF do in power. I'd guess SF ar actually not too keen on going into govt right now for the same reason.

Opposition looks pretty appealing I'd say.

[peadar1987]

My money would be on FF/FG and the 8 most easily-bribed independents. Parish pump politics and business as usual.

[backstothewall]

My money would be on FF/FG and the 8 most easily-bribed independents. Parish pump politics and business as usual.

SF will romp home next time if that happens.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Sinn Fein need to be wary of entering any kind of government - especially as a minority party - or of trying to arrange a second election. This vote was very fairweather: you had had four candidates elected who lost council seats in May 2019, and one who spent part of the campaign on holiday. That is to say, it seems to me that many SF TD's were elected on the basis of wanting change and thinking the party was the best to provide it, and not on the actual candidate. That kind of support can evaporate pretty quick.

[D24Saint]

Sinn Fein need to be wary of entering any kind of government - especially as a minority party - or of trying to arrange a second election. This vote was very fairweather: you had had four candidates elected who lost council seats in May 2019, and one who spent part of the campaign on holiday. That is to say, it seems to me that many SF TD's were elected on the basis of wanting change and thinking the party was the best to provide it, and not on the actual candidate. That kind of support can evaporate pretty quick.

Normally id agree but with FF failing to capitalise and FG looking momentarily a spent force who would soak up their votes from this election.

[NeverFeltBetter]

It depends how the coming negotiations go I suppose. If SF, alone or with others, is perceived as being too obstinate or willfully refusing to engage, then some of that support - not the dyed-in-the-wool republicans, but the people voting SF for the first time with the expectation of change - could ebb. The smaller parties could benefit. The Greens, Soc Dems and Labour weren't far off a few more seats each last weekend. Aontu were reasonably competitive in a few places outside of Meath West too.

But more likely FF and FG would sound the clarion call of "stability" and attract back some voters. But they have plenty of work to do in the meantime.

[backstothewall]

If another election is the outcome SF will ask the people for one more push to get them over the top.

What message could FF/FG possibly go to the electorate with?

[peadar1987]

SF will romp home next time if that happens.

Possibly. But I'd have thought they'd romp home after FF destroyed the economy and FG made the poor pay to fix it.

[Eminence Grise]

Brendan Howlin the first leadership casualty, setting out on his long goodbye. https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0212/1114868-labour-party/ Who'll replace him? Will it matter? Do they need to look to the Soc Dems and consider a merger?

Ivan Yates, meanwhile, on Newstalk, says his sources suggest that FF and FG will let SF try and fail to form a government when the numbers don't stack up, then form a grand coalition with an independent rural clique of TDs (Marian Harkin, Denis Naughton etc). Nineteen independents, so they'll need seven at least, and ten for wiggle room. The gamble is that SF's showing is either a flash in the pan that they can fix by throwing money at problems, or it's the reality of a realignment so they may as well hold on to power for another five years before facing the inevitable.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Certainly seems like Leo is making noises in that direction, saying Sinn Fein had a responsibility to form a government now. But even if SF got every left-wing TD in the Dail, they would still be shot of the 80, so one or both of FF or FG is going to have to give them votes.

[backstothewall]

Brendan Howlin the first leadership casualty, setting out on his long goodbye. https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0212/1114868-labour-party/ Who'll replace him? Will it matter? Do they need to look to the Soc Dems and consider a merger?

I'd add the SDLP into that mix. Between the 3 of them there's a coherent all-island party to take on SF on the left.


Ivan Yates, meanwhile, on Newstalk, says his sources suggest that FF and FG will let SF try and fail to form a government when the numbers don't stack up, then form a grand coalition with an independent rural clique of TDs (Marian Harkin, Denis Naughton etc). Nineteen independents, so they'll need seven at least, and ten for wiggle room. The gamble is that SF's showing is either a flash in the pan that they can fix by throwing money at problems, or it's the reality of a realignment so they may as well hold on to power for another five years before facing the inevitable.

I heard that. Interesting theory but Yates embarrassed himself spouting nonsense about rumours he was hearing in the podcast he did before the election so I'm not sure how seriously to take him.

SF probably can't get all the parties on the left to line up behind them, but FF & FG relying on independents will have the same herding cats problem.

Can't imagine Joan Collins, Thomas Pringle, Catherine Connolly or Michael Fitzmaurice would be involved. Even if all the others are on board SF will be only to happy to have their 'Tweedledee & Tweedledum' line confirmed forever more, and chip away the majority through by-elections and defections. They may even convince a FFer or two to cross the floor on day one to speed things along (Looking at you Éamon Ó Cuív).

[nigel-harps1954]

Pringle is ex-Sinn Fein himself, he'd go in there without a second thought.

[NeverFeltBetter]

The "Will Labour/Soc Dems merge" thing has always seemed fanciful to me. Murphy has never been on good terms with Labour, even when she was a member, and Shortall has her own reasons for wanting to stay well-clear. Their party is on the up and might have the opportunity in government to make the case for more gains, why would they want to merge with something as failing as Labour? They might be able to become a force on the left by themselves.

[dahamsta]

The sensible thing for SF to do now is politely say "FF have the most seats so they should lead the talks", then sit down and allow them to go into a messy coalition with FG and I's, and bide their time. There is no sense in trying to form a government. Sitting in opposition is a risk, but it's the only clear route.

[osarusan]

The sensible thing for SF to do now is politely say "FF have the most seats so they should lead the talks", then sit down and allow them to go into a messy coalition with FG and I's, and bide their time. There is no sense in trying to form a government. Sitting in opposition is a risk, but it's the only clear route.

I think they have spent too much time talking about how 'the people voted for change' to make that an option though.

There's every chance there will be another election pretty soon, and all three parties will be trying to blame the others for not having the balls to go into govt when the onus was on them to do so. FF and FG will be giving SF both barrels of that.

[passinginterest]

It's getting to a very sticky situation now. There seems to be prominent members of FF saying no coalition with either SF or FG and saying it's up to SF to form a government. I think it's bizarre that the party with the must seats is arguing that it lost the election and that it's up to the party with the second most to form a Government. Are FF and FG not giving two fingers to their own supporters and those who voted for them by saying that they only want to be in opposition? A return to the electorate is fast becoming the most likely outcome now, but that will hardly produce a much clearer result. Will a change in leadership of FF allow someone else to do a deal with either FG or SF? Or will it only harden the stances on each side? There's clearly not enough numbers to make up a left majority, so it's incredibly disingenuous for FF and FG to be saying off with you and take over. I'm starting to think FF/FG with Independents and or Greens is the most likely coalition, although after protracted talks and bringing us to the brink of another election, the key will be whether they think the backlash will be worse for going back to the polls or for coming together to hold 'the centre' in the interest of 'stability'.

Some of the fear mongering about a left led government is absolutely insane by the way. There's no scenario where we end up with a hardcore Socialist government. As a state we've clearly rejected the extremes of left and right repeatedly. Would there be risks to placing more emphasis on taxing multi-nationals and trying to bring housing stock back towards a more public model? Absolutely, but we're not talking extremes here, the economy is in a fairly good position, we're now the only primary English language state in the EU with full access to the Single Market, the multinationals have built up an enormous base and are in a period of expansion, it's incredibly unlikely that attempting to marginally increase the amount of tax we actually recoup from the will drive them away en-mass or that it will put others off from locating here. My biggest worry, especially with a FF/SF/Green coalition would be we get the most dangerous elements of all their manifestos; the FF tax cuts and spending increases, the SF spending increases without the increased tax take from corporations and high earners due to the compromise with FF and the Greens huge hikes in Carbon tax and more spending on retrofitting etc. It could be a runaway train in terms of spending with nowhere near enough in terms of income, especially if we hit another global downturn. If there's one thing FG have arguably done well it's to keep a fairly tight handle on the purse strings, even as the economy has improved.

[Stuttgart88]

Just watching from afar and looking at social media, if another election was called would people already be deterred by SF's "up the RA" type celebrations?

[backstothewall]

The sensible thing for SF to do now is politely say "FF have the most seats so they should lead the talks", then sit down and allow them to go into a messy coalition with FG and I's, and bide their time. There is no sense in trying to form a government. Sitting in opposition is a risk, but it's the only clear route.

They know it probably won't happen but they want to be seen to trying their best. Their next move is to sweep up the votes of Labour, who they will say with some justification were to cowardly to form a government of the left, and whichever of the Greens or independents go into government with FFG.


I think they have spent too much time talking about how 'the people voted for change' to make that an option though.

There's every chance there will be another election pretty soon, and all three parties will be trying to blame the others for not having the balls to go into govt when the onus was on them to do so. FF and FG will be giving SF both barrels of that.

They are trying to frame this as FF & FG frustrating the will of the people if they go in together. While that's going on they will be getting ready to go again.

They didn't get anyone elected in Cork North-West, Cork South-West, Limerick County or Galway East. They'll put Liadh Ní Riada, Paul Hayes, Séighin Ó Ceallaigh and Louis O'Hara into the Seanad with a view to taking at least 1 seat everywhere next time. Ní Riada would almost certainly have been elected had she stood last week, and the others all went close enough to hope to get in next time.


Just watching from afar and looking at social media, if another election was called would people already be deterred by SF's "up the RA" type celebrations?

If people weren't put off by the Paul Quinn thing, I find it hard to believe somebody shouting 'up the ra' in the backroom of a pub on election night is going to make much difference to them. There's plenty of giving off on social media about it, but if you scroll down through the timelines of the people bringing it up you'll usually find they spent the week before the election posting that Mary-Lou McDonald is the 5th Horseman of the apocalypse.

[osarusan]

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0213/1114963-sinn-fein-talks/

FF agrees not to go into coalition with SF.

This makes another election much more likely as far as I can see. FG and FF can't back down now, SF can't form a govt without them, and I don't think that an FF+FG coalition would do either of them any favours, as SF would make hay about not being allowed to govern, mandate for change etc.

[NeverFeltBetter]

But confidence and supply hasn't been ruled out I see...

Interesting that Labour have ruled themselves out of government, but presumably they'd vote the way of a SF government anyway. A new leader might change course as well (Kelly doesn't strike me as a man to be happy in opposition for example).


Just watching from afar and looking at social media, if another election was called would people already be deterred by SF's "up the RA" type celebrations?

Just to give anecdotal evidence, a sibling of mine voted SF for the first time, and was immediately put off by both what you reference and the "Come Out Ye Black and Tans" stuff at another count, enough that they expressed concern about what they voted for. They wouldn't be a politico or a dyed-in-the-wool republican, voted for SF primarily because of their economic pledges, and couldn't care less about Irish unity. It's perfectly possible that such voters could get scared off if that section of Sinn Fein is a bit too, shall we say, rambunctious in a government.