Euro 2020 Qualifying Group D

[geysir]

True about Mick's away record --- before the 2002 qualifiers campaign commenced.

[Kingdom]

I qualified my point specifically with that campaign in mind, when the pressure was all on Holland and Portugal.

[geysir]

I qualified my point specifically with that campaign in mind, when the pressure was all on Holland and Portugal.
I missed that.
For this era though, it probably suits us better to build shape and confidence into the team before tangling with Denmark away. I'd expect them to be thoroughly arrogant about their chances in June against us, their football inferiors, the cavemen in green.

[Cathalsmart]

I think it’s the best time to play Denmark, we have now played two games where we are starting to build a decent team but not enough time has gone by for Denmark to take notice and may think we are like what we were like during the MON regime. The Georgians looked surprised so if they are surprised imagine what the Danes will be like.

[geysir]

This site Football Seedings (https://www.footballseeding.com/international-tournaments/euro-2020/) offers some extra or different explanation to how the play offs take shape, should there only be 0 to 3 teams left in the div 1, div 2 or div 3 play off positions
The empty places in the higher divisions will be filled by the best placed non-qualified teams from the lower divisions, as that impressive and innovative Uefa balls video implied.

One thing I missed previously was that they are not using the traditional method to seed the qualified team for the Euro Finals groups draw
The seeding for that draw will be based on results throughout the qual campaign, with group winners taking top seed positions and results earned will determine position in that pot.
What this means is that the play-off winners are firmly in the 4th seeded pot, the bottom of the pile and at a distinct disadvantage which may not reflect their position in the Uefa rankings.

[Insidetherock]

According to my own reading of the rules for the play offs, at the half way stage of the qualifiers only 1 Group A team I think is in danger of not qualifying, ie Iceland, who are currently level on points with Turkey in 3rd place in Group H

I am also assuming that both Germany and Holland will eventually overtake Northern Ireland, and if this scenario happens then should Denmark and Switzerland overtake us for places one and two, we will finish up in a play off with

Iceland
Ireland
N Ireland
Isreal

Should Iceland qualify directly, pushing Turkey into third, then Turkey will take a place in the Group B play off making the Group A play off look like this

Ireland
Northern Ireland
Isreal
Romania

(a dream scenario which would mean Ireland would have a home semi and final if they qualified in the play offs)


A real fly in the ointment at the moment, could be the Czech Republic overtaking Kosovo meaning Ireland could still end up in a Group B play off with Bosnia/Wales/Slovakia

All in all though, it would take an absolute crazy set of results to ensure Ireland won't get the minimum of a play off if they do not go through automatically

[geysir]

According to my own reading of the rules for the play offs, at the half way stage of the qualifiers only 1 Group A team I think is in danger of not qualifying, ie Iceland, who are currently level on points with Turkey in 3rd place in Group H

I am also assuming that both Germany and Holland will eventually overtake Northern Ireland, and if this scenario happens then should Denmark and Switzerland overtake us for places one and two, we will finish up in a play off with

Iceland
Ireland
N Ireland
Isreal

Should Iceland qualify directly, pushing Turkey into third, then Turkey will take a place in the Group B play off making the Group A play off look like this

Ireland
Northern Ireland
Isreal
Romania

(a dream scenario which would mean Ireland would have a home semi and final if they qualified in the play offs)



Who gets to play at home in the play off final is decided by a throw of the dice, in your dream scenario that could be Windsor Park.

[geysir]

On League B play off positions, I fancy the Finns chances to beat Italy today, if so they'll be favourites to qualify ahead of B&H. Another potential defining game is Sweden v Norway.

[davidatrb]

All in all though, it would take an absolute crazy set of results to ensure Ireland won't get the minimum of a play off if they do not go through automatically

You would need Kosovo or Montenegro, Slovakia, Norway, Slovenia to qualify. Then Czech, Croatia, Sweden and Austria wouldnt have an auto qualification and would take four of the playoff spots before us.

You would still need one more upset (eg Albania popping up ahead of Turkey/Iceland) to take N. Ireland out of their spot.

And finally another like Greece putting Italy into the playoffs - they'd get the spot before us.

Something like that - we're currently in the 6th last spare playoffs spot as handed down from above. So need 6 lower teams to put 6 higher teams that would be expected to qualify directly into the playoffs. They'll need their playoff spot then, so we wont get it.

[davidatrb]

Actually Slovakia doesn't matter as Slovakia/Croatia are both above us anyway. So yep would be quite crazy have to find a 6th scenario maybe Luxembourg consigning Portugal to the playoffs.

I think its likely that Kosovo and maybe Slovenia can qualify automatically - it will only affect Romania and Hungary (or Israel or Bulgaria if Hungary qualify directly).

[davidatrb]

According to my own reading of the rules for the play offs, at the half way stage of the qualifiers only 1 Group A team I think is in danger of not qualifying, ie Iceland, who are currently level on points with Turkey in 3rd place in Group H

I am also assuming that both Germany and Holland will eventually overtake Northern Ireland, and if this scenario happens then should Denmark and Switzerland overtake us for places one and two, we will finish up in a play off with

Iceland
Ireland
N Ireland
Isreal

Should Iceland qualify directly, pushing Turkey into third, then Turkey will take a place in the Group B play off making the Group A play off look like this

Ireland
Northern Ireland
Isreal
Romania

(a dream scenario which would mean Ireland would have a home semi and final if they qualified in the play offs)


A real fly in the ointment at the moment, could be the Czech Republic overtaking Kosovo meaning Ireland could still end up in a Group B play off with Bosnia/Wales/Slovakia

All in all though, it would take an absolute crazy set of results to ensure Ireland won't get the minimum of a play off if they do not go through automatically

I think there will be a draw for the League A playoff not just next 4 teams.
With these conditions, the draw procedure is as follows, starting with League D and working up to League A:[6]

Form a path with four teams from the same league.
If there are more than four teams qualified in a given league, draw which teams will participate in the play-off path of that league.
Remaining teams are drawn into a path of a higher league.

[Insidetherock]

The only way I see an anomaly happening here, is if all 12 Group A winners qualify, and 6 of the Group B qualifiers also qualify. This would mean that next 4 teams in Group B, would play off against each other to have at least 1 team qualify via the Group B pathway, but with the group A pathway empty of teams, and having to be filled by teams further down, you could have a scenario like I said where the two Irelands could be in a play off with two teams from Group C, even though they finished behind the other 4 Group B teams in the rankings at the end of the Nations League.

What I think could happen in that scenario, i.e. assuming that Group A is empty and there are for example 6 teams not qualified from Group B, the best two ranked teams from B, would go up to A, and the next four B teams would play off. Then the two teams that went up to A, would be joined by two more from C, giving better ranking teams the advantage of playing lower ranked teams.

If that is the case, then Ireland should be hoping Iceland are beaten to qualification by Turkey, because none of the teams that finish in the four play off spots in B, can go up to play a team unqualified in a higher group.

Realistically I'd prefer a play off with for example

Iceland/Ireland/N Ireland/Isreal over one with Bosnia/Wales/Czech Rep/Slovakia/Turkey

What this is also really showing is the huge importance of the Nations League for qualifying for competitions

Get back into the B group and you're almost guarenteed a play off spot for every Euro's

[Stuttgart88]

I think there will be a draw for the League A playoff not just next 4 teams.
With these conditions, the draw procedure is as follows, starting with League D and working up to League A:[6]

Form a path with four teams from the same league.
If there are more than four teams qualified in a given league, draw which teams will participate in the play-off path of that league.
Remaining teams are drawn into a path of a higher league.
I thought we established (Geysir was certain anyway) that there is no draw. It’s purely mechanical based on ranking. The discussion - all about the rules and possible anomalies - was in the Wales NL match thread which Tets closed and locked. I’d quite like all the relevant posts moved to a separate UEFA 2020 Qualification Process thread if that’d be possible.

[davidatrb]

I thought we established (Geysir was certain anyway) that there is no draw. It’s purely mechanical based on ranking. The discussion - all about the rules and possible anomalies - was in the Wales NL match thread which Tets closed and locked. I’d quite like all the relevant posts moved to a separate UEFA 2020 Qualification Process thread if that’d be possible.

Thanks. I hadn’t seen that thread. Painful reading! I don’t want to bring it all up again.

Can I just show an example of what I understand. The concept of drawing teams is mentioned on Wikipedia.

[tetsujin1979]

I thought we established (Geysir was certain anyway) that there is no draw. It’s purely mechanical based on ranking. The discussion - all about the rules and possible anomalies - was in the Wales NL match thread which Tets closed and locked. I’d quite like all the relevant posts moved to a separate UEFA 2020 Qualification Process thread if that’d be possible.

Sure, link to the relevant posts and I'll move them into a new thread

[DannyInvincible]

Anyone have a working stream for the Georgia-Denmark game, by any chance?

[davidatrb]

I thought we established (Geysir was certain anyway) that there is no draw. It’s purely mechanical based on ranking. The discussion - all about the rules and possible anomalies - was in the Wales NL match thread which Tets closed and locked. I’d quite like all the relevant posts moved to a separate UEFA 2020 Qualification Process thread if that’d be possible.


(making some assumptions on who will qualify directly here btw)

League D
Georgia (gw)
Kosovo (gw)
Macedonia (gw)
Belarus (gw)

No draw required all go into Path D playoff.

League C teams not directly qualified that inherit one of the playoff spots
Scotland (gw)
Serbia (gw)
Norway (gw)
Bulgaria
Hungary
Israel
Romania

Scotland, Serbia and Norway go into Path C and one other team is drawn (say Hungary). The other 3 move into the Path B draw.

So Path C is
Scotland
Serbia
Norway
Hungary ( or whoever is drawn with group winners)

League B teams not directly qualified
Bosnia (gw)
Sloavakia
Ireland
N Ireland

So Bosnia as group winner goes into Path B and draw three of Slovakia, Ireland N. Ireland and also in the draw the three from League C that haven’t been placed yet.

So Path B could be:
Bosnia
Ireland (or whoever is drawn)
Romania (or whoever is drawn)
Israel (or whoever is drawn)

Path A will be what left.
Iceland
Slovakia (depending if not already drawn)
N Ireland (depending if not already drawn)
Romania (depending if not already drawn)

Do ppl not agree?

[geysir]

Thanks. I hadn’t seen that thread. Painful reading! I don’t want to bring it all up again.

Can I just show an example of what I understand. The concept of drawing teams is mentioned on Wikipedia.

The truth, the whole truth about the play off draw is in this thread, in this post (https://foot.ie/threads/238163-Euro-2020-Qualifying-Group-D?p=2014006&viewfull=1#post2014006).

[geysir]

Anyone have a working stream for the Georgia-Denmark game, by any chance?

This one (https://skorlive.com/soccer)is working right now
scroll down to the match, no commentary just crowd noise.

[geysir]

Time is moving at glacial speed.

[Eirambler]

Not sure whether I'm more encouraged by the poor performance from Denmark or terrified about us going to Tbilisi after that.

[geysir]

The good news is the result, the bad news is that Georgia look very good at home, we'll be doing well to get a point, never mind three.

[tetsujin1979]

Georgia have a good recent record in Tblisi, winning six of the last seven before this game. The seventh was the loss to Switzerland in March.

[TrapAPony]

The good news is the result, the bad news is that Georgia look very good at home, we'll be doing well to get a point, never mind three.

We will need to score early against them and burst their bubble. The longer it stays 0-0 the more confident they become.

[Insidetherock]

The good news is the result, the bad news is that Georgia look very good at home, we'll be doing well to get a point, never mind three.

We have the ability to make them fall asleep and catch them late on with a jammy goal by Mc Goldrick.. others teams problem is trying to play football against them

[samhaydenjr]

Not sure whether I'm more encouraged by the poor performance from Denmark or terrified about us going to Tbilisi after that.


The good news is the result, the bad news is that Georgia look very good at home, we'll be doing well to get a point, never mind three.

I think overall we've got to be very pleased with the result, as we can now go to Georgia knowing that a even defeat won't be a death blow to our chances (as long as we don't get beaten by a Swiss team who have just been beaten by Denmark), but a victory (especially if the Swiss beat the Danes) would leave us in a strong position. As a result of this game, it's looking more likely that we will still be in with a shout, at least, when we host Denmark in November.

[geysir]

At least Georgia have ensured that direct qualification is more in our own hands now.

[mark12345]

We will need to score early against them and burst their bubble. The longer it stays 0-0 the more confident they become.

The only chance we have of beating them is with set piece goals. The more corners and free kicks in decent range we get, the better are our chances of finding the net.
They are a very good team in terms of constructing moves and holding possession and we will, once again, be chasing shadows for most of the night.
Three points in Tbilisi will require a top drawer performance.

[pineapple stu]

Who gets to play at home in the play off final is decided by a throw of the dice, in your dream scenario that could be Windsor Park.
Yep. Specifically from wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020_qualifying_play-offs) -


The host of the final will be decided by a draw in November 2019 between the two semi-final pairings.

Given the semis are three days before the final, we won't know the venue for the final (if we get there of course) until three days beforehand.

[Stuttgart88]

Sure, link to the relevant posts and I'll move them into a new threadthanks Tets. This is the thread I think
https://foot.ie/threads/235119-Wales-V-Republic-of-Ireland-Cardiff-6th-September-2018-UEFA-Nations-League/page13?highlight=uefa+nations+league+2018-19

There are lots of nerdy posts about the NL / 2020 rules.

[Stuttgart88]

The only chance we have of beating them is with set piece goals. The more corners and free kicks in decent range we get, the better are our chances of finding the net.
They are a very good team in terms of constructing moves and holding possession and we will, once again, be chasing shadows for most of the night.
Three points in Tbilisi will require a top drawer performance.we are top drawers. That's why I doubt we'll win :)

[geysir]

thanks Tets. This is the thread I think
https://foot.ie/threads/235119-Wales-V-Republic-of-Ireland-Cardiff-6th-September-2018-UEFA-Nations-League/page13?highlight=uefa+nations+league+2018-19

There are lots of nerdy posts about the NL / 2020 rules.
I would like to add that I have never posted a nerdy post about the Euro 2020 play offs but possibly due to someone not understanding the import of the content of my posts due to some deficiency of sorts, have thereby castigated them as nerdy.
I will accept that there are nerdy posts but Geysir's are excluded

[tetsujin1979]

thanks Tets. This is the thread I think
https://foot.ie/threads/235119-Wales-V-Republic-of-Ireland-Cardiff-6th-September-2018-UEFA-Nations-League/page13?highlight=uefa+nations+league+2018-19

There are lots of nerdy posts about the NL / 2020 rules.
Posts moved - https://foot.ie/threads/248488-Nationa-League-Rules-Discussion
Let me know if there's any other posts to move

[tricky_colour]

Am I the only one who does not understand any of this qualification stuff?

[Stuttgart88]

Yes, you are

[Deckydee]

you know, nevermind Georgia drawing with Denmark, they could have nicked it at the end!

[Stuttgart88]

Am I the only one who does not understand any of this qualification stuff?
A quick summary:

- 24 teams qualify for Euro 2020
- Ten groups, 2 qualify directly from each group = 20 teams
- Remaining 4 places are determined by a series of playoffs
- The participants in the playoffs are determined by the 2018/19 Nations League matches which have all taken place
- The 4 best teams from NL League D (who haven’t qualified via the traditional qualification groups) will be the League D play off teams. A 1 leg semi-final followed by a 1 leg final, in March 2020
- Same too for NL Leagues C, B and A
- But – in all likelihood all the League A teams will qualify outright, so the League A play off path gets made up of the best B (or maybe even C) teams that don’t qualify outright
- You’d also expect most B teams to qualify outright
- So, despite Ireland doing rubbish in the Nations League, as long as no more than 6 Nations League A or B teams fail to qualify from the groups, we get a playoff, probably in the vacant League A playoff path (because they’ve already qualified their playoff places go to the remaining B teams) – and @insidetherock was pointing out which other teams that would be against. That’s what the above posts were about.

A few of us were debating some of the finer nuances of the exact mechanism but this was a mix of highly intelligent (Geysir) and nerdy (mainly me, Sammy, insidetherock and davidatrb) posts.

[pineapple stu]

A quick summary:.
And in the end, the Germans win...

[Bungle]

Heard that Xhaka will take a short break from football when his wife gives birth. Hopefully, it's around the international break next month.

[davidatrb]

Posts moved - https://foot.ie/threads/248488-Nationa-League-Rules-Discussion
Let me know if there's any other posts to move

I think the new Thread there set up is closed. Can't seem to post in there. (And typo in the thread name Nationa)

[Insidetherock]

Heard that Xhaka will take a short break from football when his wife gives birth. Hopefully, it's around the international break next month.

As an Arsenal fan.. that's fantastic news

[davidatrb]

If we go the playoff route ie finish 3rd or worse then likely Path A or Path B playoff - probably a winnable semi final vs eg N.Ireland or Bulgaria if I read it right. Just naming a couple of the possibilities to give an idea of standard but too far to go yet to know any certainties. Then playoff final vs Iceland (if we end up in Path A) or Bosnia (if we end up in Path B). I think this bit is certain enough -looking like Iceland wont Q and Bosnia really struggling. And we go into Pot 4 for the Actual Finals Draw. Good record vs Bosnia in playoffs. The friendly tomorrow could be a nice warm up versus Bulgaria calibre opponent.

If we get 2nd and go straight in. The seeding means that the 2nd placed automatic qualifiers can be any Pot 2-4 depending on pts/gd (two into Pot 2, six into Pot 3, two into Pot 4). So we need to go some for our gd vs Gibraltar when we get a chance.

These are the "likely" 2nd places and their GD/Pts.


P GD PTS
17 Russia Auto (Pot 2) 5 5 12
15 Denmark Auto (Pot 2) 5 10 9
2 Netherlands Auto (Pot 3) 4 9 9
22 Turkey Auto (Pot 3) 4 7 9
28 Finland Auto (Pot 3) 5 2 9
16 Sweden Auto (Pot 3) 5 1 8
18 Austria Auto (Pot 3) 5 1 7
19 Wales Auto (Pot 3) 4 0 6
20 Czech Auto (Pot 4) 4 -2 6
1 Portugal Auto (Pot 4) 3 2 5


Our gd is +4 and pts 11, so points wise not doing bad, might sneak into Pot 2 but think Russia and Netherlands are in with a better chance. We can hope England do damage to Kosovo's goal difference tomorrow (its a coin toss between Czech and Kosovo for 2nd), and Portugal, Czech, Turkey also struggle to score - all in action tomorrow.

I know ppl dont like to pre-empt these things and of course focus is on qualifying whatever way. But we can make life easier on ourselves imo by watching some of this.

[tetsujin1979]

I think the new Thread there set up is closed. Can't seem to post in there. (And typo in the thread name Nationa)

sorry about that, fixed

[geysir]

If we go the playoff route ie finish 3rd or worse then likely Path A or Path B playoff - probably a winnable semi final vs eg N.Ireland or Bulgaria if I read it right. Just naming a couple of the possibilities to give an idea of standard but too far to go yet to know any certainties. Then playoff final vs Iceland (if we end up in Path A) or Bosnia (if we end up in Path B). I think this bit is certain enough -looking like Iceland wont Q and Bosnia really struggling. And we go into Pot 4 for the Actual Finals Draw. Good record vs Bosnia in playoffs. The friendly tomorrow could be a nice warm up versus Bulgaria calibre opponent.

If we get 2nd and go straight in. The seeding means that the 2nd placed automatic qualifiers can be any Pot 2-4 depending on pts/gd (two into Pot 2, six into Pot 3, two into Pot 4). So we need to go some for our gd vs Gibraltar when we get a chance.

These are the "likely" 2nd places and their GD/Pts.


P GD PTS
17 Russia Auto (Pot 2) 5 5 12
15 Denmark Auto (Pot 2) 5 10 9
2 Netherlands Auto (Pot 3) 4 9 9
22 Turkey Auto (Pot 3) 4 7 9
28 Finland Auto (Pot 3) 5 2 9
16 Sweden Auto (Pot 3) 5 1 8
18 Austria Auto (Pot 3) 5 1 7
19 Wales Auto (Pot 3) 4 0 6
20 Czech Auto (Pot 4) 4 -2 6
1 Portugal Auto (Pot 4) 3 2 5


Our gd is +4 and pts 11, so points wise not doing bad, might sneak into Pot 2 but think Russia and Netherlands are in with a better chance. We can hope England do damage to Kosovo's goal difference tomorrow (its a coin toss between Czech and Kosovo for 2nd), and Portugal, Czech, Turkey also struggle to score - all in action tomorrow.

I know ppl dont like to pre-empt these things and of course focus is on qualifying whatever way. But we can make life easier on ourselves imo by watching some of this.
We only need to beat Gibraltar, goal diff wont matter a jot.
When it comes to seeding the 1st and 2nd placed qualified teams, the results gained against the 6th team are discarded.

I suspect the 2nd team in our group will end up with a relative low points total.

[davidatrb]

We only need to beat Gibraltar, goal diff wont matter a jot.
When it comes to seeding the 1st and 2nd placed qualified teams, the results gained against the 6th team are discarded.

I suspect the 2nd team in our group will end up with a relative low points total.

But Gibraltar will be 5th placed team..

[Eirambler]

I'm not following this - we've already played Gibraltar twice, we won't be playing them again?

[davidatrb]

We only need to beat Gibraltar, goal diff wont matter a jot.
When it comes to seeding the 1st and 2nd placed qualified teams, the results gained against the 6th team are discarded.

I suspect the 2nd team in our group will end up with a relative low points total.


I'm not following this - we've already played Gibraltar twice, we won't be playing them again?

Yep you’re right! Bit late thinking about it now. Can’t see us running up a decent GD vs what’s left. Might come into it, but hey doesn’t matter now. Might not matter.

[geysir]

But Gibraltar will be 5th placed team..

Hard to credit that they are a 5th pot team along with Kosova and Armenia. So the 2nd place team in our group will have an easy 6 points earned and should avoid the 4th seed pitfall.

[Stuttgart88]

I'm not following this - we've already played Gibraltar twice, we won't be playing them again?Both games have been erased from the memory. I think it's a known post-trauma pschological phenomenon.

[DannyInvincible]

Heard that Xhaka will take a short break from football when his wife gives birth. Hopefully, it's around the international break next month.

I'm not sure that is the case. It was originally reported that way in the media, but I'm pretty certain that I later read (in an article I'm admittedly now having difficulty finding again) that Xhaka since clarified that the Swiss FA had merely offered him time off. Whether he'll take them up on the offer or not remains to be seen.