Euro 2020 Qualifying Group D

[Insidetherock]

Basically we're missing a fourth seed, which is nice. Georgia are a decent fifth seed, and Gibraltar are clearly a sixth seed. Georgia in particular could take points, but I think qualification is two teams from three. We're probably third favourites, but I think our chances are decent.

Georgia are also in the Nations League play-offs, having won League D. They're probably favourites to win too (they're in with Kosovo, Belarus and Macedonia). Probably won't impact things too much though; yes, they'll have one eye on March 2020, but they'll probably also be trying to push themselves as much as possible in qualifying.

Positive hat says that Martin got three draws in four meetings with Denmark in the past year. Surely Mick has to be an improvement?

You could take the line also that Georgia probably see the play off route as their best way of qualifying, so they can really have a go at the group games as they have that safety net. They aren't a bad side at all from what I seen of them last few qualifying tournaments.

Switzerland are.. effective. Very effective. But if you'd been asked would you have preferred them or Holland.. you'd have picked them.

Getting the free day in March I think is the key to this group.

[Insidetherock]

Switzerland are a very good team as are denmark. Georgia are always a potential banana skin but not a greece or romania and gibraltar is the best of pot 5 by far.

Without getting ahead of myself, that should be a playoff with a bit to spare. On paper, a well managed Ireland can give the swiss and the danes a proper game.

It will be great having the two extra dates for friendlies as well.

The wc 2022 draw is in july. If we took a major scalp like switzerland that could be massive for us going forward for that draw.

Not sure if you understand the changes that the Nations League have brought bungle.. but the play offs have nothing to do with finishing positions in these groups. In fact, the play off places are already decided, with teams giving the opportunity to play themselves out of them by qualifying directly, rather than playing themselves into them.

I think we'll end up in a play off with Iceland, Northern Ireland and AN Other to be honest.

And as for the draw for the World Cup in 2022.. that will also be decided by Nations League placings. The next Nations League will be played out in the Autumn of 2020, and Ireland will be in Group C.. so no matter how they do in this competition.. they could go all the way and win it.. and still only be a third, or possibly fourth seed in the 2022 World Cup draw.. depending on how we do in the 2020 Nations League.

The world of seeding has changed kiddo.. changed forever

[pineapple stu]

You could take the line also that Georgia probably see the play off route as their best way of qualifying, so they can really have a go at the group games as they have that safety net. They aren't a bad side at all from what I seen of them last few qualifying tournaments.
They've played nice stuff against us recently, but they're ineffective for all that. It's the third time in a row we've drawn them; they didn't get a single win in 2018 qualifying (five draws, including one against us), and Gibraltar aside, they won just one game in 2016 (at home v Scotland; a vital win for us, but they lost every other game). I think it'd be great to see them at the Euros, but I don't think they'll be as much of a threat as, say, Hungary, Greece, Slovenia or Albania, who have all qualified in recent years and who are all fourth seeds as well.

Part of me wonders if Switzerland/Denmark away as our sole game in March mightn't be a bad idea. Worked a treat in 2002 qualifying. Would give us a chance of catching a top seed on the hop as their chances of prep would be severely limited by the new manager coming in for a first game.

[IsMiseSean]

I think people are underestimating Georgia. They've been improving year on year. I can see them taking points off all the teams in the group.

[Cathalsmart]

Essentially we are assured of a play off unless some freakish results happen. This is a **** group for travel and ill only be happy with it if we come 2nd, it feels we are due revenge again Denmark and even Switzerland for Mick. If we can hit the ground running we have got a good shot here. Overall while transition happens I do feel we could be up and down at the start and because of that I think Switzerland & Denmark will edge the group because of that unless lets say we get Gibraltar first up then beat Denmark at home then we can get momentum but other than that I do expect 3rd place but we have a fighting chance here. Either way we should be humming along nicely going into the play off should we get there or need it.

[pineapple stu]

I think people are underestimating Georgia. They've been improving year on year.
I'm not sure their qualifying results really back that up?

Their best campaigns were 1996/1998/2002 for example.

[Insidetherock]

Georigia played well against us under Trap and MonRo.. because we let them. We scored and then dropped off giving them the ball and letting them play away whatever way they wanted. And we made them look good.

But then again, we did the same against Moldova in Dublin. And Northern Ireland. And a host of other teams.. because we had managers who seemed to think we'd be better off playing without the ball than with it.

Now I haven't seen a lot of Mick at Ipswich, but what I have tells me, he actually likes his teams to have the ball and want to play. Which makes be feel a lot more comfortable about playing the likes of Georgia and Gibraltar. We should be getting 12 points there, and not worrying about them.

Meaning that the games v Switzerland and Denmark, become like a Nations League mini league, with the top two going through.

[pineapple stu]

Yeah, that's how I see it as well.

Wouldn't have had that view if O'Neill was still in charge of course.

[IsMiseSean]

I'm not sure their qualifying results really back that up?

Their best campaigns were 1996/1998/2002 for example.

We've always struggled against them, home & away (closer each day).
They're a far better team now than the one we faced in the 2010 campaign.

I just had a look at their campaigns we didn't meet them. In 2014 campaign - they held France, Spain only beat them by a late goal - both in Tbilisi. They also beat Croatia in the 2012 campaign.

I'd be surprised if they don't beat at least one of Denmark, Switzerland or us. I think they'll be right in the mix but will probably fall short in the last few games.

[pineapple stu]

I think they're still due a result against us purely on the law of averages; that's even after getting a long-overdue draw against us in Tbilisi last year.

But I think if you're going back to the 2012/14 campaigns to find good results, that doesn't hold with the idea that they're improving year-on-year. Three points from eight games once the bottom seeds are discounted (which is what they got in 2016 and 2018) is not a return that'll have them in the mix.

We absolutely need to be careful of them, but as fourth seeds, I'm much happier to have them than a country that's qualified for something recently, which was about half the options available.

[backstothewall]

Part of me wonders if Switzerland/Denmark away as our sole game in March mightn't be a bad idea. Worked a treat in 2002 qualifying. Would give us a chance of catching a top seed on the hop as their chances of prep would be severely limited by the new manager coming in for a first game.

I was thinking the same. Everyone has seen his goal against Holland at Lansdowne Road but those of us of a certain vintage will remember that Jason McAteer got 2 crucial goals against the Dutch in that campaign.

[Bungle]

That's a big disappointment in relation to wc 2022 qualification rather than my hope of getting into the second pot. Sounds like we will be third seeds at best. Still if we have a good euros you would hope that this will give us a new spirit regardless of being down the pots.

[geysir]

In qualifiers at home since sept. 2001, have we only beaten one team from the top two seeds?

[Insidetherock]

In qualifiers at home since sept. 2001, have we only beaten one team from the top two seeds?

Probably.. I've always felt our home form is never good enough against the really top sides.. way too many draws.

But again I'll go back to managers who don't think we're good enough, and leave us constantly playing on the back foot no matter who we play at home. If you concede possession and ground to an opponent, the fans end up spending the whole game chewing their nails rather than making the stadium rock.. what you need in the Aviva.. is hostility.. noise.. f**k it, bring one flares, drums, bells, large Tifo flags.. the works.. make our team feel like they have 50,000 players.. and make opponents feel like they don't want to be the ones to **** 50,000 people off

[seanfhear]

A good draw in that we could have got tougher teams ( though all that can be unpredictable ) .

But A Bit Boring . The Danes again .

[Insidetherock]

A good draw in that we could have got tougher teams ( though all that can be unpredictable ) .

But A Bit Boring . The Danes again .

You're right there.. was hoping for an Estonia, or Moldova, or somewhere with cheap beer and good looking lasses around early September next year.. shorten the Winter like

[seanfhear]

Reasonably good from Mick’s point of view but a bit of auld Glamour wouldn’t have hurt .

Everyone needs a little Razzle Dazzle now and again .

[Insidetherock]

Reasonably good from Mick’s point of view but a bit of auld Glamour wouldn’t have hurt .

Everyone needs a little Razzle Dazzle now and again .

We'll get plenty of that in the finals if we get there haha ..

[jbyrne]

Probably.. I've always felt our home form is never good enough against the really top sides.. way too many draws.

But again I'll go back to managers who don't think we're good enough, and leave us constantly playing on the back foot no matter who we play at home. If you concede possession and ground to an opponent, the fans end up spending the whole game chewing their nails rather than making the stadium rock.. what you need in the Aviva.. is hostility.. noise.. f**k it, bring one flares, drums, bells, large Tifo flags.. the works.. make our team feel like they have 50,000 players.. and make opponents feel like they don't want to be the ones to **** 50,000 people off

our support has gone to the dogs recently. granted the football was poor but rehashed celtic songs, the pathetic james mcclean song, the even worse version of the icelandic clap have left lansdowne soulless. sure the welsh were laughing at us a couple of games back. time for the fans to step it up too i feel

[zero]

any word on the fixtures yet?

edit: tracked them down.

Mar 23 Gibraltar 🇬🇮 (A) 17:00
Mar 26 Georgia 🇬🇪 (H) 19:45
Jun 7 Denmark 🇩🇰 (A) 19:45
Jun 10 Gibraltar 🇬🇮 (H) 19:45
Sep 5 Switzerland 🇨🇭 (H) 19:45
Oct 12 Georgia 🇬🇪 (A) 14:00
Oct 15 Switzerland 🇨🇭 (A) 19:45
Nov 18 Denmark 🇩🇰 (H) 19:45

[pineapple stu]

Hadn't realised every flag was red and white.

Tough second half of the campaign. Would need 10 points from the first half I'd say

[jbyrne]

any word on the fixtures yet?

edit: tracked them down.

Mar 23 Gibraltar ���� (A) 17:00
Mar 26 Georgia ���� (H) 19:45
Jun 7 Denmark ���� (A) 19:45
Jun 10 Gibraltar ���� (H) 19:45
Sep 5 Switzerland ���� (H) 19:45
Oct 12 Georgia ���� (A) 14:00
Oct 15 Switzerland ���� (A) 19:45
Nov 18 Denmark ���� (H) 19:45

given our new manager situation i dont think we could have handpicked that set of fixtures any better ourselves

[The Fly]

any word on the fixtures yet?

edit: tracked them down.

Mar 23 Gibraltar  (A) 17:00
Mar 26 Georgia  (H) 19:45
Jun 7 Denmark  (A) 19:45
Jun 10 Gibraltar  (H) 19:45
Sep 5 Switzerland  (H) 19:45
Oct 12 Georgia  (A) 14:00
Oct 15 Switzerland  (A) 19:45
Nov 18 Denmark  (H) 19:45

Delaney must've pulled some strings to get Gibraltar and Georgia up first.

Great chance to build some much needed momentum.

[TrapAPony]

Delaney must've pulled some strings to get Gibraltar and Georgia up first.

Great chance to build some much needed momentum.

Definitely, just like how he pulled our playoff draw v Estonia a few years back.

[tetsujin1979]

Tough end to the group IMO, Switzerland, then away to Georgia and Switzerland and finish against Denmark at home
If there's a date available for a friendly in September, it's a chance for experimentation

[samhaydenjr]

any word on the fixtures yet?

edit: tracked them down.

Mar 23 Gibraltar  (A) 17:00
Mar 26 Georgia  (H) 19:45
Jun 7 Denmark  (A) 19:45
Jun 10 Gibraltar  (H) 19:45
Sep 5 Switzerland  (H) 19:45
Oct 12 Georgia  (A) 14:00
Oct 15 Switzerland  (A) 19:45
Nov 18 Denmark  (H) 19:45

The best thing about that start is it gives us a chance to give Obafemi some time in two games against Gibraltar and perhaps Georgia and, everything going according to plan, by the time we face Switzerland in September he'll have four competitive caps and over 20 EPL games under his belt. It may also give us a later than anticipated chance to blood Daniel Crowley, Jimmy Dunne and even Aaron Connolly, should he show up in Brighton's FA Cup team in January. And if Declan Rice stays with us, his decision to skip the lower-stakes competitive action of the Nations League might not be as big of a problem.

Of course, we may get caught cold by Gibraltar, in which case this draw will be a disaster:eek:

[pineapple stu]

Starting with Gibraltar away is another hark-back to the first Mick reign, which started with Liechtenstein away.

That was a kind of banana skin as we'd drawn with them 12 months earlier. But instead we were 4-0 up after half an hour.

A repeat would be quite good!

[Insidetherock]

We've two games to start with.. that should be 6 points. If we don't get 6 there we're at nothing anyway. Mick will have gotten 4 months to look at the players and ten days in camp.. he needs to be ready for Denmark away in the third game.. which feck it.. I couldn't care less if he goes double martin/trap and sticks all 11 behind the ball and get the worst 0-0 draw we've ever seen out of it.

However.. we need to beat either Switzerland or Denmark at home.. I think it's that simple

[ifk101]

Excellent draw for us, and a nice easy start to get running. Granted Switzerland and Denmark are currently ahead of us, but there not light years ahead either. Switzerland lost out to an organised but limited Swedish team in the WC, a Swedish side badly exposed against England in the next round. And Denmark couldn't score in two games against us, when we were at our weakest.
We are not going to get much better opportunities than this to finish in the top two, and failing that a playoff place is virtually assured. It is set up for us to qualify and it's a failure of duty on the part of McCarthy if we don't.

[Stuttgart88]

I think the Swiss are a fair bit ahead of us in quite a few ways, not least their ability to navigate qualifying pretty effectively down the years, but yes, the Sweden and NI games suggest that there may be something to be gained from them.

[Cathalsmart]

Switzerland are a good bit ahead of the rest in the group but in the end its just two games between us and them, us getting 3 or even 4 points off them wouldnt be the biggest shock ever, they arent like a Germany (not the current side though!) who you would expect to win this group 8-0-0 Switzerland will definitely come top 2 in the group and almost certainly finish top but unless the rest of the teams collapse I think this group will go similarly to our WC group for 2018, Ireland (if we improv that is) and Denmark are alot better than anything Switzerland played in their WC group bar Portugal so I would expect them to win 4 from 4 from the minnows and then get 2 wins out of 4 or so from us and Denmark.

I think the schedule is amazing, not just because of our start to the campaign but Denmark travel to Switzerland first up and if they lose their they could find themselves under alot of pressure coming into the Ireland match and going into that we will be a complete unknown quantity and we could catch them on the hop. Win that and the Danes have an absolute mountain to climb and we have some wiggle room which Mick would love to have. Next we have Gibralter but after that we get Switzerland at home and if we managed to win that game we would have one foot in the finals almost.

[Cathalsmart]

I think the Swiss are a fair bit ahead of us in quite a few ways, not least their ability to navigate qualifying pretty effectively down the years, but yes, the Sweden and NI games suggest that there may be something to be gained from them.

Over 8 games yes but in a one off match or home and away matches Ireland and Denmark would definetly fancy their chances.

[tetsujin1979]

Fixture list added to the Group D wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020_qualifying_Group_D

We could easily be top of the group in June after playing Gibraltar twice and Georgia, but it's a really tough end to the group. The "easiest" fixture in the last four games is away to Georgia. We'll be facing the top seeds twice. Denmark play Gibraltar at home three days before facing us, with the Swiss going to Faro* the same night we finish against Denmark at home. Even the free date in September comes after the qualifier against Switzerland, if it was the other way around we could see some experimentation ahead of the qualifier.

* assuming Gibraltar continue to play their qualifiers in Faro

[Stuttgart88]

Yep, we aren't playing on on match days 6 and 9, both next season - Sept (a month before Georgia away) and November (3 days before Denmark at home). It'd have been handy to have a couple of friendlies earlier in the sequence than that, but the September friendly will be useful to prepare for Georgia away.

[pineapple stu]

I think the Swiss are a fair bit ahead of us in quite a few ways, not least their ability to navigate qualifying pretty effectively down the years, but yes, the Sweden and NI games suggest that there may be something to be gained from them.
Don't forget Switzerland have done so well in qualifying partly because they were gaming the system - avoiding friendlies to keep their world ranking up and ensure a top seeding. Their record in finals tournaments is solid but not spectacular; never past the last 16 in recent years. I think we can acknowledge they're a good team while still being happy to have drawn them as top seeds

[Diggs246]

Don't forget Switzerland have done so well in qualifying partly because they were gaming the system - avoiding friendlies to keep their world ranking up and ensure a top seeding. Their record in finals tournaments is solid but not spectacular; never past the last 16 in recent years. I think we can acknowledge they're a good team while still being happy to have drawn them as top seeds

Yep, apart from Poland they were the best seeded team to get

[zero]

Don't forget Switzerland have done so well in qualifying partly because they were gaming the system - avoiding friendlies to keep their world ranking up and ensure a top seeding. Their record in finals tournaments is solid but not spectacular; never past the last 16 in recent years. I think we can acknowledge they're a good team while still being happy to have drawn them as top seeds

also were pretty fortunate to beat NI over 2 legs in the WC playoff. apologies if this was previously mentioned.

[Insidetherock]

Ok people.. this may have been the saddest post I ever wrote.. but this is how I think the whole qualifying process is going to turn out, and what the implications of it are for Ireland.. who I think will finish third in Group D

Group A

England (A1)
Czech Rep (B8)
Bulgaria (C6)
Montenegro (C10)
Kosovo (D1)

Likely qualifiers:
England
Czech Republic/Bulgaria Irelands preference: Bulgaria, and hope for Czech Republic to move into Group B play offs


Group B

Portugal (A1)
Ukraine (B1)
Serbia (C1)
Lithuania (C15)
Luxembourg

Likely qualifiers:
Portugal
Ukraine/Serbia Irelands preference: Makes no odds, top 3 all topped groups so will play in their own play off groups if they don’t qualify automatically


Group C

Netherlands (A1)
Germany (A11)
Northern Ireland (B12)
Estonia (C14)
Belarus (D1)

Likely qualifiers:
Netherlands
Germany Ireland preference: Makes no odds, Estonia won’t make play offs, Belarus are in Group D play off already, and WCS Northern Ireland will move to Group A play off




Group D

Switzerland (A1)
Denmark (B1)
Ireland (B11)
Georgia (D1)
Gibraltar

Likely qualifiers:
Switzerland
Denmark/Ireland Irelands preference: Automatic qualification. Assuming Switzerland and Denmark qualify, Russia move up into the Group B play off spot vacated by Denmark. If Georgia do not qualify automatically, they play in the Group D play off.


Group E

Croatia
Wales (B7)
Slovakia (B9)
Hungary (C7)
Azerbijan (D7)

Likely qualifiers:
Croatia
Wales/Slovakia/Hungary Irelands preference: Croatia and Wales or Slovakia. The lower of those two, would then likely take a place in the B group play off

















Group F

Spain
Sweden (B1)
Norway (C1)
Romania (C5)
Faroe Islands
Malta

Likely qualifiers:
Spain
Sweden/Norway/Romania Irelands preference: Norway or Romania. If Sweden do not finish second, they will play in the B play offs. If Norway do not finish second, they will play in the C play offs. If any of Scotland, Norway, Serbia or Finland finish second in their group, Romania will play in the C play off.


Group G

Poland (A10)
Austria (B6)
Israel (C8)
Slovenia (C13)
Macedonia (D1)
Latvia

Likely qualifiers:

Any 2 from top 4 Ireland’s preference: Poland and Austria. This would clear play off spots in both Group A and B that Ireland could potentially move into.








Group H
France
Iceland (A12)
Turkey (B10)
Albania (C12)
Moldova
Andorra

Likely Qualifiers:
France
Iceland/Turkey/Albania Ireland’s preference: France, Turkey. I don’t think Iceland will qualify direct, but more than 8 Group A teams will, meaning they will be in the Group A play off. If Iceland do qualify, then Turkey will either play in the B or A play offs, depending on other results.


Group I

Belguim
Russia (B5)
Scotland (C1)
Cyprus (C7)
Kazakhstan
San Marino

Likely qualifiers:
Belguim
Russia Ireland’s preference: Belguim and Scotland, with Russia to go to Group B play offs. Unlikely though, Russia will be favourites to qualify directly. Scotland will then go to Group C play offs

Group J

Italy
Bosnia (B1)
Finland (C1)
Greece (C9)
Armenia
Lichtenstein

Likely qualifiers:
Italy
Bosnia/Finland/Greece Ireland’s preference: Italy, Greece, with Bosnia and Finland going to the B and C play offs respectively
My Call:

Direct qualifiers

England, Czech Republic, Portugal, Serbia, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Croatia,
Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Poland, Austria, France, Turkey, Belguim, Russia, Italy, Bosnia

Play off groups.

A
Iceland
Northern Ireland
Isreal
Hungary

B
Ukraine
Turkey
Wales
Ireland

C
Scotland
Norway
Finland
Bulgaria

D
Georgia
Macedonia
Kosovo
Belarus


Ironically, in this simulation I believe 7 Nations League Group B teams will qualify directly, meaning the Republic of Ireland, as the 11th ranked team will then get the final Group B play off spot. Which will mean an away leg game against the highest ranking Group B team that didn’t qualify (in this case Ukraine). The winners of that game would play the winners of Wales/Turkey

However, this also means that the 12th ranked Group B team, Northern Ireland, will be promoted upwards to the Group A play off, which only has Iceland unqualified automatically, and they would have a home leg play off semi final against Isreal, with the winners potentially having a home final against Iceland/Hungary.

The best result for Ireland vis a vis play offs.. is for only 6 group B teams to qualify automatically. This will mean that the next 4 will play in the group B play off, with Ireland going up to the the Group A play offs where there may even be no Group A team left unqualified.

[Diggs246]

Ok people.. this may have been the saddest post I ever wrote.. but this is how I think the whole qualifying process is going to turn out, and what the implications of it are for Ireland.. who I think will finish third in Group D

Group A

England (A1)
Czech Rep (B8)
Bulgaria (C6)
Montenegro (C10)
Kosovo (D1)

Likely qualifiers:
England
Czech Republic/Bulgaria Irelands preference: Bulgaria, and hope for Czech Republic to move into Group B play offs


Group B

Portugal (A1)
Ukraine (B1)
Serbia (C1)
Lithuania (C15)
Luxembourg

Likely qualifiers:
Portugal
Ukraine/Serbia Irelands preference: Makes no odds, top 3 all topped groups so will play in their own play off groups if they don’t qualify automatically


Group C

Netherlands (A1)
Germany (A11)
Northern Ireland (B12)
Estonia (C14)
Belarus (D1)

Likely qualifiers:
Netherlands
Germany Ireland preference: Makes no odds, Estonia won’t make play offs, Belarus are in Group D play off already, and WCS Northern Ireland will move to Group A play off




Group D

Switzerland (A1)
Denmark (B1)
Ireland (B11)
Georgia (D1)
Gibraltar

Likely qualifiers:
Switzerland
Denmark/Ireland Irelands preference: Automatic qualification. Assuming Switzerland and Denmark qualify, Russia move up into the Group B play off spot vacated by Denmark. If Georgia do not qualify automatically, they play in the Group D play off.


Group E

Croatia
Wales (B7)
Slovakia (B9)
Hungary (C7)
Azerbijan (D7)

Likely qualifiers:
Croatia
Wales/Slovakia/Hungary Irelands preference: Croatia and Wales or Slovakia. The lower of those two, would then likely take a place in the B group play off

















Group F

Spain
Sweden (B1)
Norway (C1)
Romania (C5)
Faroe Islands
Malta

Likely qualifiers:
Spain
Sweden/Norway/Romania Irelands preference: Norway or Romania. If Sweden do not finish second, they will play in the B play offs. If Norway do not finish second, they will play in the C play offs. If any of Scotland, Norway, Serbia or Finland finish second in their group, Romania will play in the C play off.


Group G

Poland (A10)
Austria (B6)
Israel (C8)
Slovenia (C13)
Macedonia (D1)
Latvia

Likely qualifiers:

Any 2 from top 4 Ireland’s preference: Poland and Austria. This would clear play off spots in both Group A and B that Ireland could potentially move into.








Group H
France
Iceland (A12)
Turkey (B10)
Albania (C12)
Moldova
Andorra

Likely Qualifiers:
France
Iceland/Turkey/Albania Ireland’s preference: France, Turkey. I don’t think Iceland will qualify direct, but more than 8 Group A teams will, meaning they will be in the Group A play off. If Iceland do qualify, then Turkey will either play in the B or A play offs, depending on other results.


Group I

Belguim
Russia (B5)
Scotland (C1)
Cyprus (C7)
Kazakhstan
San Marino

Likely qualifiers:
Belguim
Russia Ireland’s preference: Belguim and Scotland, with Russia to go to Group B play offs. Unlikely though, Russia will be favourites to qualify directly. Scotland will then go to Group C play offs

Group J

Italy
Bosnia (B1)
Finland (C1)
Greece (C9)
Armenia
Lichtenstein

Likely qualifiers:
Italy
Bosnia/Finland/Greece Ireland’s preference: Italy, Greece, with Bosnia and Finland going to the B and C play offs respectively
My Call:

Direct qualifiers

England, Czech Republic, Portugal, Serbia, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Croatia,
Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Poland, Austria, France, Turkey, Belguim, Russia, Italy, Bosnia

Play off groups.

A
Iceland
Northern Ireland
Isreal
Hungary

B
Ukraine
Turkey
Wales
Ireland

C
Scotland
Norway
Finland
Bulgaria

D
Georgia
Macedonia
Kosovo
Belarus


Ironically, in this simulation I believe 7 Nations League Group B teams will qualify directly, meaning the Republic of Ireland, as the 11th ranked team will then get the final Group B play off spot. Which will mean an away leg game against the highest ranking Group B team that didn’t qualify (in this case Ukraine). The winners of that game would play the winners of Wales/Turkey

However, this also means that the 12th ranked Group B team, Northern Ireland, will be promoted upwards to the Group A play off, which only has Iceland unqualified automatically, and they would have a home leg play off semi final against Isreal, with the winners potentially having a home final against Iceland/Hungary.

The best result for Ireland vis a vis play offs.. is for only 6 group B teams to qualify automatically. This will mean that the next 4 will play in the group B play off, with Ireland going up to the the Group A play offs where there may even be no Group A team left unqualified.

A lot of effort in that post, not sure its sane but 10/10 for application

[Kingdom]

I'm not happy with the group, but I'm happy with the fixtures. If we were in a normal Ireland cycle, we'd look at the group and think that it's winnable. We're not in a normal cycle, but the group gives us an opportunity to get some pride back into set up. The fixture schedule gives us an opportunity to get off to a good start, bed in a couple of players, with little danger of not winning the game. It gives time on the training ground to focus on ourselves and one opponent, rather than 2 opponents. The 2nd game is exactly the game we needed too.
Likewise with the June fixtures, we can focus solely on Denmark which is brilliant. As others have said, if we could leave June with 10 points it would be super.

[Insidetherock]

A lot of effort in that post, not sure its sane but 10/10 for application

Perfectly sane my good man haha.. the Nations League has thrown up quite a few anomalies that might need ironing out in the future.

Like, they have decreed that each Group (ABCD) must provide a qualifier.. but what if All 12 group A teams qualify (a not unreasonable assumption, given that they are the 12 top ranked teams in the nations league)

And the "feeding up" process could see Ireland or Northern Ireland potentially in an easier play off than teams that finished higher than them in the Nations League.

For example, let me take my own example a step further.. I assumed that France and Turkey would qualify from Group H, leaving Ireland to play in the Group B play offs...

But, assume Iceland qualify instead of Turkey, and all 12 Group A teams go through automatically.. then with no one in Group A play offs, and Turkey going back to the Group B play offs as one of the best four non qualifiers..

Then the Group A qualifiers would be:

Ireland
Northern Ireland
Israel
Hungary

while the Group B play offs would be:

Ukraine
Turkey
Wales
Romania

(I made a slight error in the original post, the original group B playoffs should have read

Ukraine
Wales
Ireland
Northern Ireland

whilst Group A would have been

Iceland
Israel
Hungary
Romania


As you can see here.. both Ireland and Northern Ireland could conceivably end up in play offs against Group C teams, with home advantage in the semi finals.. while Wales who finished higher, could face two away ties to qualify against higher ranked Group B teams..

[geysir]

Yep, apart from Poland they were the best seeded team to get
The Swiss are the nr1 seeds, top of pot 1 . This Swiss team is the best Swiss team I have ever seen. They fell flat against Sweden but clearly they are a lot better than that performance, they have been making great strides with this coach they have.

[Stuttgart88]

Perfectly sane my good man haha.. the Nations League has thrown up quite a few anomalies that might need ironing out in the future.

Like, they have decreed that each Group (ABCD) must provide a qualifier.. but what if All 12 group A teams qualify (a not unreasonable assumption, given that they are the 12 top ranked teams in the nations league)

And the "feeding up" process could see Ireland or Northern Ireland potentially in an easier play off than teams that finished higher than them in the Nations League.

For example, let me take my own example a step further.. I assumed that France and Turkey would qualify from Group H, leaving Ireland to play in the Group B play offs...

But, assume Iceland qualify instead of Turkey, and all 12 Group A teams go through automatically.. then with no one in Group A play offs, and Turkey going back to the Group B play offs as one of the best four non qualifiers..

Then the Group A qualifiers would be:

Ireland
Northern Ireland
Israel
Hungary

while the Group B play offs would be:

Ukraine
Turkey
Wales
Romania

(I made a slight error in the original post, the original group B playoffs should have read

Ukraine
Wales
Ireland
Northern Ireland

whilst Group A would have been

Iceland
Israel
Hungary
Romania


As you can see here.. both Ireland and Northern Ireland could conceivably end up in play offs against Group C teams, with home advantage in the semi finals.. while Wales who finished higher, could face two away ties to qualify against higher ranked Group B teams..
That assumes Geysir's (perfectly reasonable) reading of the mechanism is correct. There's an alternative theory based on the actual written regulations (but which contains a degree of ambiguity) that suggests there'll be a draw among the B teams to determine which play off path they go into.

[Stuttgart88]

Great work above.

Ultimately it still boils down to collectively how many As and Bs don't qualify, or put another way, how many Cs or Ds qualify directly. As long as 15 As and Bs qualify / 5 or fewer Cs/Ds qualify we get a reprieve of sorts. Then it boils down to the degree of difficulty of the play off path.

I think it does look like the only A team that is at risk of not qualifying directly is Iceland. Of the Bs only really ourselves, NI, Bosnia, Wales, Slovakia or Turkey look a risk. But as long as it's either Wales or Slovakia, not both, then that'd be in our favour.

Why do you say we'd prefer Norway or Romania to qualify over Sweden? Surely we prefer Sweden to vacate their B play off spot? Or are you being greedy and looking to be in the A play off path? Similarly, why do we want Russia not to qualify? I'd have thought we want as many Bs as possible to go straight through. If 8 go through then that means we must be in the B play off path (i.e., 4 Bs don't qualify so they all go into the B path). If 9 Bs go through there are only 3 B teams for the B path so a C gets bumped up, and 3-4 Cs may also go into the A path.

Edit: I just read the explanation that ideally only 6 Bs qualify but all or nearly all !2 As do.

[Diggs246]

The Swiss are the nr1 seeds, top of pot 1 . This Swiss team is the best Swiss team I have ever seen. They fell flat against Sweden but clearly they are a lot better than that performance, they have been making great strides with this coach they have.

Stop being lemon .You know well the following teams are better:
Portugal, Holland, England, Belgium, France, Spain, Italy, Croatia

[pineapple stu]

Switzerland are technically number 1 seeds for qualifying on account of topping the Nations League with the most points.

Obviously that's just UEFA being UEFA...

[Cathalsmart]

Anyone who actually watches football knows full well that Switzerland was the 2nd best draw we could have gotten. Worth remembering that a lot if this ranking is down to them cheating the system and not playing friendlies.

[Diggs246]

The other forum are back in my good books!!
https://forum.ybig.ie/will-monkey-attacks-put-you-off-going-to-gibraltar_topic56734.html

[Insidetherock]

Great work above.

Ultimately it still boils down to collectively how many As and Bs don't qualify, or put another way, how many Cs or Ds qualify directly. As long as 15 As and Bs qualify / 5 or fewer Cs/Ds qualify we get a reprieve of sorts. Then it boils down to the degree of difficulty of the play off path.

I think it does look like the only A team that is at risk of not qualifying directly is Iceland. Of the Bs only really ourselves, NI, Bosnia, Wales, Slovakia or Turkey look a risk. But as long as it's either Wales or Slovakia, not both, then that'd be in our favour.

Why do you say we'd prefer Norway or Romania to qualify over Sweden? Surely we prefer Sweden to vacate their B play off spot? Or are you being greedy and looking to be in the A play off path? Similarly, why do we want Russia not to qualify? I'd have thought we want as many Bs as possible to go straight through. If 8 go through then that means we must be in the B play off path (i.e., 4 Bs don't qualify so they all go into the B path). If 9 Bs go through there are only 3 B teams for the B path so a C gets bumped up, and 3-4 Cs may also go into the A path.

Edit: I just read the explanation that ideally only 6 Bs qualify but all or nearly all !2 As do.

Yeah, it's kind of mental how my mind is working on this, but assuming that we don't qualify directly, then I think being in the A play off would probably afford a better chance of qualifying than being in the B one.

I mean right now, I'd fancy us to beat Iceland.. but not Sweden/Russia/Ukraine/Wales/Turkey etc.. so assuming 6 B teams qualify.. the next 4 get the play off spots.. and we get bumped up.

Like I said, it's not way beyond the bounds of possibility, especially if Iceland qualify ahead of Turkey leaving Turkey in a B play off spot, that we could conceivably be in the A play off with NI and two C teams.

I mean, lets all play a game here..

Everyone go through the groups and pick ye're top two.. once that is done, you can calculate the play offs yourselves... or I'll do it.

[Insidetherock]

That assumes Geysir's (perfectly reasonable) reading of the mechanism is correct. There's an alternative theory based on the actual written regulations (but which contains a degree of ambiguity) that suggests there'll be a draw among the B teams to determine which play off path they go into.

Here are the final placements of teams in all 4 Nations League groups.. so this will be what is used to place teams into the play off paths at the end of qualifying.

Group A - Top 4, but assuming 11-12 of them qualify, the Top 4 will be made from promoted teams.

Group B - Bosnia, Ukraine, Denmark, Sweden... then Russia, Austria, Wales, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Turkey, Rep. Ireland, Norn Ireland.

As teams qualify their places in the play off spots are taken by the next team in the rankings, until all 4 spots are taken from the order above.. so like I said.. if 6 of the first 10 qualify, the other 4 go into the play offs and us and Norn Ireland lose out.

But if there are spaces left in A, then we go up to A to fill those spaces until they have four spaces filled too.

So if seven qualify directly, the next 4 spaces would include us, being the 11th in Group B.

Here are the final rankings of the groups..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%9319_UEFA_Nations_League_A

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%9319_UEFA_Nations_League_B

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%9319_UEFA_Nations_League_C

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%9319_UEFA_Nations_League_D

The whole thing makes the Nations League a very important mini league every couple of years because if you can get back into Group B, you'll pretty much guaranteed a play off spot at the least.

We'll be in C next time, but that'll decide seedings for the world cup draw. It's almost imperative that we win our next nations league group to get back into B going into the seedings for Germany 2024