Presidential Election 2018

[NeverFeltBetter]

Regardless of how much of an actual contest it will end up being, Sinn Fein's Ard Comhairle's decision today means there will be a contest, probably on October 26th with the two proposed referenda.

Higgins has announced he is running again and can nominate himself. Sinn Fein have the numbers in the Oireachtas for a nomination themselves, I would presume maybe O'Caolain or Boylan, or even Doherty?. Fine Gael and Labour will back Higgins. Fianna Fail don't have a set position yet I think, but Martin has indicated they will support Higgins.

Independents seeking nominations right now include Senator Gerard Craughwell, Senator Padraig O'Cedigh, Sean Gallagher and Kevin Sharkey. They depend on Oireachtas nominations or councils, which is an iffy process without party backing. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few more come out of the woodwork.

A sitting President hasn't faced an actual re-election campaign since Dev, who very nearly lost back in 66. But you would expect this to a be a cake-walk for Higgins who, barring some kind of unexpected scandal, might still be able to win without campaigning. The age thing is the only significant issue, and that didn't deflect from his popularity last time. Craughwell's made much of his pledge to only serve one term, but on the scale of political falsehoods its fairly minor. What else is there? The overly-praising Castro eulogy? Breaking the government pay cap for advisers? All insignificant really. None of the prospective candidates look anywhere on his level. How do you beat someone in Higgins' position?

[osarusan]

Seems like the people interested in running are doing so just because they feel there should be an election, rather than just confirming Higgins for another 7 years.

I can't imagine that going down too well with the electorate.

In SF's case, it's part of an overall plan to build themselves as a party I suppose.

[backstothewall]

It's a good way to raise someone's profile for SF I suppose. They'll do well to break 10% though.

Though expectations being so low I suppose there's no way to get beaten up. If they get crushed It's no more than was expected. Whoever the candidate ends up being must have a strong chance of taking a seat in the dail next time around.

Or they could always put forward a unionist as a gesture of reconciliation.

Whatever is going on they have something in mind other than actually taking the Aras. Or they have some incredible dirt on Higgins in an envelope in Connolly House.

[D24Saint]

Don’t think an election is needed , Michael D is doing a great job and will win by landslide.

[backstothewall]

Possibly going to use the election to keep the government's feet to the fire on voting rights for Northerners.

[dahamsta]

No mention of Adams, has he said he's fully retired? I assumed he was retiring from everything else so he could run this year.

[NeverFeltBetter]

McDonald said he wouldn't be their candidate. Under her they're presumably desperate to shed any Provo ties left.

[backstothewall]

No mention of Adams, has he said he's fully retired? I assumed he was retiring from everything else so he could run this year.

I don't think he's a serious candidate. I could be proved wrong but SF are obviously trying to move on from that generation.

John Finucane would be very interesting. Southerners may not know a lot about him but he is exceptionally bright and does well in front of the cameras. In addition his age and the assassination of his father makes it impossible to associate him with the provos in the way other parties usually attack SF.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Fianna Fail apparently won't impose a whip on supporting Higgins, which opens up the possibility of all sorts of people getting nominations. I don't know if the Soc Dems or Greens are planning to back anyone. Finucane and MEP Liadh Ni Riana the favourites for Sinn Fein: https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0716/979040-sinn-fein-finucane/

[Gather round]

https://i.imgur.com/NlaifkJ.jpg


How do you beat someone in Higgins' position?

You announce a candidate, confident that this will encourage others to stand. MDH may then be rather less keen than if he were to be returned unopposed. As he is 77 age/ health is clearly a get-out for him in those circumstances.


Seems like the people interested in running are doing so just because they feel there should be an election, rather than just confirming Higgins for another 7 years...I can't imagine that going down too well with the electorate

If the electorate are annoyed that the head of state should face a contested election (as opposed to spending the cost of it on nurses' salaries, or traffic lights, or whatever) explain to them that it's not a zero-sum game.

If on the other hand they're just apathetic, what's the problem? You'll just have a lower turnout. I suppose if that falls to derisory levels it would be embarrassing.

Ultimately, MDH will either retire after or during his term, or die in office. There'll be a need for a new President at that stage, presumably.


Or they could always put forward a unionist as a gesture of reconciliation

He isn't actually a unionist, but my party leader Steven Agnew was enthusing about the 12th the other day on RU. Said his kids really enjoyed it ;)


John Finucane would be very interesting. Southerners may not know a lot about him but he is exceptionally bright and does well in front of the cameras. In addition his age and the assassination of his father makes it impossible to associate him with the provos in the way other parties usually attack SF

Finucane isn't that well known in the South (or to interested exiles, like me) because he isn't actually on TV that much- either in soundbite or longer detailed interview. From what I see and hear (View, Spotlight, Talkback, Nolan's various vehicles) SF rely more on O'Muilleoir, Murphy and O'Dowd to back up the leadership

[backstothewall]

https://i.imgur.com/NlaifkJ.jpg
Finucane isn't that well known in the South (or to interested exiles, like me) because he isn't actually on TV that much- either in soundbite or longer detailed interview. From what I see and hear (View, Spotlight, Talkback, Nolan's various vehicles) SF rely more on O'Muilleoir, Murphy and O'Dowd to back up the leadership

That's true, but he has a day job to attend to beyond politics.

He was very impressive in the run up to the Westminster election when he challenge Dodds in North Belfast, and managed to add 7% on top of the vote Gerry Kelly had previously received.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Craughwell pulls out: https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0723/980477-gerard-craughwell-presidential-election/

Claims he's accomplished what he set out to do. Uh huh. More likely he's realised he can't get a nomination.

[Eminence Grise]

I think he'd get a nomination without any difficulty. FF are playing a sneaky game (nothing new there) by publicly supporting Michael D, but seemingly not blocking councillors from nominating other candidates. They can't afford to leave the field to SF: a Michael D-SF head to head would give the Sinners far too much publicity and air time, so my reckoning is that FF will try to dilute that by facilitating a few more candidates in the field, perhaps - but not necessarily - FF gene-pool, and without having to contribute financially to their campaigns (important, with a general election somewhere in the not too distant future). Noel Whelan, ex-Party Secretary, and Sean Gallagher are both making noises in that respect, and should get the support needed.

More likely Craughwell has looked at the finance: there wouldn't be much change out of €400,000 for a nationwide campaign and the more candidates there are the harder it is to raise those funds. I'd be thinking that 20% of the cost of a Presidential campaign would be better spent outside the restricted campaign limits on making a Dáil or Seanad campaign much more winnable.

[OwlsFan]

I don't know who I'd vote for if it was between Higgins (with the totally affected accent), FF (never) or SF (never, never, never). Between a rock and a hard place.

[Eminence Grise]

Is it too reductionist to call that scenario the ultimate game of 5hag, marry, avoid?

[NeverFeltBetter]

I will say I've never been either overly-impressed or unimpressed by Higgins, both in the 2011 campaign and after. I voted for him then based very much on an "Everyone else is terrible" sentiment, and I haven't regarded anything he's said or done in the last seven years as changing my general impression of him then as "Alright". I'd certainly consider someone else, even a SF candidate if it was from the more, shall we say, modern element of the party.

Whether it matters a jot is something different. I'd be interested to see how the media treats the race once candidates are confirmed, if there would be en effort to manufacture (or at least manufacture a perception of) a tighter race.

[The Fly]

Sinn Fein (seemingly unaware of the constitutional limits of the office) are in 'social justice warrior' mode -


https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0727/981433-presidential-election/ (https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0727/981433-presidential-election/)

The chairperson of the party's Presidential Election Committee, David Cullinane said..."they want a candidate who will address the changes seen in the abortion referendum and the same-sex marriage referendum and will address the issue of changing a patriarchal society."

[Gather round]

Sinn Fein (seemingly unaware of the constitutional limits of the office) are in 'social justice warrior' mode -


https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0727/981433-presidential-election/ (https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0727/981433-presidential-election/)

The chairperson of the party's Presidential Election Committee, David Cullinane said..."they want a candidate who will address the changes seen in the abortion referendum and the same-sex marriage referendum and will address the issue of changing a patriarchal society"

Aren't SF more likely to be pushing those limits, rather than blissfully ignorant of them? It may reflect recent Belfast mayors (from SF, SDLP and AP) looking to do more in the office than merely wear fancy dress and raise money for charity. In turn that's probably down to younger people with newer ideas, as well as the absence of Stormont

[NeverFeltBetter]

It'd be interesting to see a President that pushes the constitutional limits beyond what Higgins has done, regards speeches and what have you. You wouldn't expect any Oireachtas would have the balls to impeach.

Regards misunderstanding of those powers, that's not all SF's fault, because too much of the electorate is ignorant of those restrictions and aren't helped by a media that isn't all that interested in educating them. In the last Presidential campaign, I watched a debate where the candidates were asked how they would fix hospitals. When, I think it was Gay Mitchell, had the temerity to imply the President couldn't really do anything about it, the moderator, Charlie Bird, gave out to him. I guess people don't want to know the answers to such scintillating questions as "Would you ever refuse to dissolve an Oireachtas?" when there are potholes to whinge about.

[Eminence Grise]

George Gavan Duffy throws his hat in the ring and promises 'the most modern, dynamic, interactive election campaign possible'.
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/race-for-the-ras-businessman-gavin-duffy-confirms-he-is-seeking-nomination-37164551.html

SF claim in retaliation that using three or more consecutive adjectives is emblematic of a bourgeois hegemony. They'd like to call it over-kill but the connotations there bombed with a focus group.

And Miggeldy has decided he's very concerned about people who get caught up in gambling problems. 'One day they're fine. Next they're putting the House on the line, or their Aras on the block,' he didn't say, clearly concerned that a second majestic march toward the most meaningless prize in in Irish politics was now a gamble to be left in the hands of the people.
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/president-michael-d-higgins-wants-gambling-advertising-removed-from-sport-37165065.html

[NeverFeltBetter]

Looks to me like Eamon O'Cuiv is flying a kite. (https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0730/981920-presidential-election/)

On the radio over the weekend one thing people spoke about that may come up against Higgins is the expenses he's racked up during his time in the Aras, regards receptions/parties/staff/use of the government jet/etc. I don't know if its beyond the norm, but he certainly didn't like being asked about it earlier in the year. (https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/higgins-hits-out-when-questioned-on-presidency-cost-36855014.html)

[osarusan]

Tbh that article is fairly worthless, as it doesn't provide any figures to compare his presidency with other presidencies.

[NeverFeltBetter]

That's true, and one of the reasons its hard to do that is because Presidential finances aren't covered by FOI legislation. But, for what it is worth, what expenses we do know about - exchequer funding, staff costs, travel costs - appear to have increased every year of his Presidency. (https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/revealed-how-much-the-office-of-the-president-costs-over-seven-years-36785078.html)

And I'm not saying this is a terrible sin in the grand scheme of things or anything, but it is something that might siphon a few votes off him. Opponents wouldn't want to paint him as too old for the office, since that would backfire, but an overly-generous elitist with too new a car and too many parties? SF's kind of voter would lap that up.

Edit: and to add, because before nominations are even secured, the controversial opinions/associations are already being put front and centre, with support for blood sports (https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/presidential-hopeful-defends-association-with-hunting-amid-criticism-37166831.html) for Gavin Duffy, and non-take-up of the HPV vaccine (https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sf-mep-in-line-for-run-at-ras-ruled-out-hpv-vaccination-for-her-daughter-37166082.html) for Liadh Ni Riada (not that she opposes it, no, no, she just wouldn't permit her daughter to be given it). It's not even wrong for such things to be put under scrutiny for people proposing themselves to be the Head of State, but its funny how negative Presidential campaigns get so quickly.

[Eminence Grise]

The smaller the prize, the dirtier the fight. There's no executive or policy function in the presidency, so all that's left to attack is a candidate's personality and history.

<Edit>
I get the feeling the media have turned against Michael D this time round. He had an easy ride last time; already he's fielding more awkward questions.

[CraftyToePoke]

Michael D wants to ban gambling advertising in sport

- https://www.rte.ie/sport/other-sport/2018/0729/981790-president-calls-for-gambling-advertising-ban-in-sport/

[NeverFeltBetter]

I get the feeling the media have turned against Michael D this time round. He had an easy ride last time; already he's fielding more awkward questions.

Re-election at a canter doesn't sell papers it seems.

[osarusan]

Indo really has the knives out for him.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/ras-silence-on-claims-higgins-stayed-in-3000anight-hotel-37198861.html

He stayed in a hotel where the most expensive rooms could cost €3000 a night, so therefore he did stay in a room that cost €3000.

There may well be an issue there, but this 'might be, could be' stuff is terrible. They really are a rag of a paper, trying to drum up any kind of controversy.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Whatever about Higgins' hotel preferences, the Presidential accounts should definitely be covered by FOI.

[dahamsta]

Absolutely. Almost everything should be covered by FOI, exceptions should be a tiny minority.

[osarusan]

the Presidential accounts should definitely be covered by FOI.
No argument with that.

Nothing to do with Higgins though, and it can't really be used as a stick to beat him with, imo.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Gallagher considering a run: https://www.rte.ie/news/leinster/2018/0815/985343-carlow-council-presidency/

Don't really see the point for him especially. Notwithstanding the shenanigans that occurred in the last week of the 2011 campaign, there isn't a hope he could compete with Higgins.

I'm not sure that Kevin Sharkey's pro-Trump comments were the best to make for someone running for the Irish presidency - https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/presidential-hopeful-trump-hasnt-killed-as-many-people-as-previous-occupants-of-white-house-37219690.html

[osarusan]

I'm not sure that Kevin Sharkey's pro-Trump comments were the best to make for someone running for the Irish presidency - https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/presidential-hopeful-trump-hasnt-killed-as-many-people-as-previous-occupants-of-white-house-37219690.html

He seems to be targeting the 'PC has the world gone mad, can't say anything any more, what about free speech' demographic, who always want somebody who 'tells it like it is', but I don't think Ireland has embraced that position to any great extent.

[pineapple stu]

Isn't he the Donegal priest in Father Ted?

Unusual candidate!

[Lionel Ritchie]

The unifying trait of aspirants appears to be a belief that there is an appetite for a prez who is a tad/fair bit/helluva lot more right-wing. There is also a lot of wilfull delusion that this gig has executive clout.

It's starting to remind me of a karaoke competition I entered in Swansea back in the 90s to kill some time between soundcheck and set (in my previous life as a peasant indie-rocker). Every mad ****er off the road with nowhere else to be entered the thing. Most were as delusional and miles off target.

I slaughtered them. I slaughtered them all. In Swansea, Wales -singing Tom Jones' Its Not Unusual. The tee shirt I won was very nice.

[mypost]

The smaller the prize, the dirtier the fight. There's no executive or policy function in the presidency, so all that's left to attack is a candidate's personality and history.

<Edit>
I get the feeling the media have turned against Michael D this time round. He had an easy ride last time; already he's fielding more awkward questions.

About what?

There's not much more to the job than sign a few paper bills from the Senate, wine and dine the odd compatriot, and show up at Lansdowne and Croker for sporting events. That's all there is to it really. Any auld eejit could do it.

As long as they're 35+, remember. A 34 year old is considered incapable of writing his name on a bit of paper, run a house party, travel a bit and turn up at football events to shake hands with the players, but a 35 year old can.

In the eyes of the State anyway.

[pineapple stu]

In the eyes of the State anyway.
No - in the eyes of the people.

There was a referendum in 2015 to reduce the age to 21, which was resoundingly defeated. So you cannot now suggest this is stubbornness on the part of the State

[osarusan]

Journalist Gemma O'Doherty throwing her hat into the ring.

So far we have the following who have explicitly stated their intentions to run:

Gemma O'Donherty (investigative journalist)
Kevin Sharkey (actor, artist and activist)
Joan Freeman (Senator and Pieta House founder)
Gavin Duffy (businessman)
Patrick Feeney (former Aer Lingus employee who received 22 votes in 2016 general election, in Galway West)

[NeverFeltBetter]

O'Doherty's statement on her Facebook page wasn't exactly great, just a rambling tirade about the many ways Ireland is a "rogue nation". Featured standard "I won't be like other useless Presidents" rhetoric before outlining nothing that would distinguish her from other Presidents. Seems like a classic case of running to get publicity, not to win.

[Mr A]

She would be an absolute disaster. There are some awful candidates in the race, but she is a new level of unsuitable.

[NeverFeltBetter]

She's spent the last few days throwing legal threats at those bringing up her anti vaxination views. Is this the elections Dana candidate?

Higgins really does just need to keep quiet and look "Presidential".

[dahamsta]

How is she anti-vax? Googling her just brings up a load of Twitter pollution.

[Mr A]

She claims not to be, but then all anti-vax people claim not to be. But she see it as her journalistic duty to 'ask questions' because some people have felt unwell after receiving vaccinations. One of the anti-vax groups, Regret I think they're called have endorsed her as well.

[backstothewall]

Human turd Sean Gallagher is seeking a nomination.

7 more years of Miggeldy please

[Mr A]

Can't remember a field for any election this rancid. Hopefully Michael D romps home.

[NeverFeltBetter]

What is with all of these Dragons Den guys? - https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0830/988454-presidential-election/

Is this some kind of elaborate publicity stunt for a new series?

[Eminence Grise]

Hm. I wonder how many voters will struggle to resist the urge to write and for that reason I'm out on their ballots?

[Mr A]

Gemma reckons the state killed Veronica Guerin. https://twitter.com/newsworthy_ie/status/1035287828484243456

Same thread has the head of Regret whining about HSE criticism and Gemma blaming Big Pharma.

[dahamsta]

Gemma reckons the state killed Veronica Guerin. https://twitter.com/newsworthy_ie/status/1035287828484243456

Jesus wept.

[NeverFeltBetter]

If you go through her Twitter feed you'll find nods to that kind of stuff, like the "Gavin Duffy is a freemason!" story. She isn't a serious candidate.

Indeed, this isn't a serious contest until Sinn Fein announce their candidate.

Edit: to emphasize that, this is all getting a little stupid now: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mannix-flynn-considers-presidential-run-1.3613162

[Real ale Madrid]

Hm. I wonder how many voters will struggle to resist the urge to write and for that reason I'm out on their ballots?

Apparently Duffy has offered Higgins 1.2m...................





...................for 40% of the Presidency.