Presidential Election 2018

[backstothewall]

Meath have nominated Duffy

[NeverFeltBetter]

Cork go for Freeman. I imagine her and Duffy will get nominated. Gallagher too. Not sure about anyone else.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Senator Joan Freeman thinks Knock cured her eczema: https://twitter.com/newsworthy_ie/status/1037645313824182272

Kevin Sharkey wants the death penalty for those who hurt the elderly: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kevin-sharkey-calls-for-death-penalty-for-crimes-against-older-people-1.3619714

There was a Primetime report last night that featured a few talking heads discussing how risible this calibre of candidate is, and I tend to agree. For every person arguing that an election for this post has merit, there is a would-be candidate either making a fool of themselves or suggesting a ridiculous policy they would have no power to enact anyway.

[osarusan]

Kevin Sharkey wants the death penalty for those who hurt the elderly: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kevin-sharkey-calls-for-death-penalty-for-crimes-against-older-people-1.3619714

This stuff annoys me - for candidates to either be so completely ignorant of the law of the country (and indeed EU), or else just spewing utterly populist rubbish.

I agree - the quality of candidate is poor - I don't think many fancy challenging Higgins, so the people we are getting are just happy with the publicity that accompanies a campaign, or even the rumour of a campaign.

[mypost]

No - in the eyes of the people.

There was a referendum in 2015 to reduce the age to 21, which was resoundingly defeated. So you cannot now suggest this is stubbornness on the part of the State

Yes I can and Yes I have. The State invented the rule and treasures it greatly. I voted No in that referendum. I just never understood why the age restriction was necessary. That's not to say a 34yo should be given the job. My view is if you're old enough to vote, you're old enough to run for office. Then the public should get to decide whether or not you're up to the task, as in any other election.

The current health minister is not yet 35 yo, yet he was entrusted with the responsibility of one of the most senior roles in the government. But through no fault of his own, he can't run for President even if he wanted to run.

It's good that we are having a vote. But I reckon MDH thought that when he announced he was running, he expected to run unopposed. I don't think there's much doubt that he will win, but I personally don't think he has the will or the energy to go out there and fight it out with chancers and opportunists, in order to retain his job.

[Eminence Grise]

The current health minister is not yet 35 yo, yet he was entrusted with the responsibility of one of the most senior roles in the government.

And look how well that's working...

[NeverFeltBetter]

Gallagher off the mark with Roscommon: https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0910/992732-presidential-election-councils/

Six other councils voting today, so we might get out first proper nomination. I'm not sure how that will work once the likely contenders - Gallagher, Duffy, Freeman - get the four, would the remaining councils start voting for the others or just call it a day?

Edit: Gallagher has two more today, Mayo and Leitrim. Obviously big fans of Dragons Den in Connacht. I'll admit, I will be interested to see if he gets softballed by RTE in debates.

[backstothewall]

Gallagher is officially on the ballot paper

[NeverFeltBetter]

And Duffy has his second council.

Edit: And Freeman has three with Fingal and Galway. All of the expected candidates getting there. It remains to be seen whether the rest of the councils will choose to back anyone.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Not to clutter the thread, but thought it was worth linking the comments of Fingal Cllr Jimmy Guerin, brother of Veronica, on Gemma O'Doherty, which are fairly scathing: https://foot.ie/threads/233689-Presidential-Election-2018?p=1974856

Surprisingly she choose not to address that council, cancelling her appearance an hour beforehand.

Edit: For the record, her previous response to Jimmy Guerin was to claim she would not be "bullied" by anyone who isn't interested "in finding the truth about a murdered relative". If she gets nominated the debates she's in are going to be excruciating.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Dublin City is the first council to declare they won't nominate anyone, which is a bad sign for the rest of the would-be candidates: https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0913/993491-presidential-election/

[osarusan]

Kevin Sharkey has withdrawn from the race to focus on his art and music career, both of which, in an incredible coincidence, will see new material released in the coming weeks.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I believe there will be a theme of corrupt county councillors. I presume it will not include evidence of said corruption. Gemma O'Doherty praising him and all.

Kerry Council votes today. It's hard to see if any more will actually nominate someone, or if they'd rather call a halt to the circus.

[Mr A]

WTF.... the SF Candidate is also dodgy on the Vaccine issue. https://twitter.com/newsworthy_ie/status/1023896301715513344

Were are they finding these people? And can we isolate them all on their own wee island.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Peter Casey has two council nominations today. Four other councils voted against nominating a candidate. Think only 11 councils are left who have yet to make a decision. They have nine days.

[Eminence Grise]

WTF.... the SF Candidate is also dodgy on the Vaccine issue. https://twitter.com/newsworthy_ie/status/1023896301715513344

Were are they finding these people? And can we isolate them all on their own wee island.

If someone can come up with a vaccine for O'Doherty and Ni Riada and all the other talentless egomaniacs I'll gladly volunteer to test it.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Peter Casey now nominated. Three Dragon's Den alum running for President: this is a weird country some times.

Seven councils left, so I suppose that means only one more candidate can be nominated that way.

[Mr A]

At this stage Gemma O Doherty has annoyed me so much I kinda hope she gets a nomination so she can humilate herself even further.

Not really though. That said, three council nominations would be a laugh just to really wind her up.

[NeverFeltBetter]

One candidate thrown out after telling the meeting of elected Councillors "Are you not sick of politicians?", another doubles down on baseless claim the state murdered a journalist: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/presidential-hopeful-sarah-louise-mulligan-ejected-from-dublin-meeting-1.3636237

South Dublin choose not to nominate anyone, perhaps being a touched peeved by someone who claims, as President, she would try and get the abortion referendum result overturned in the ECJ (the cries of "Democracy!" are a bit selective clearly). That leaves four councils I believe. Last night a meeting of 20 Oireachtas members led by Craughwell - who is taking credit for their being a contest for some reason - couldn't agree on the method of voting for a possible candidate. It's all a bit sad.

Regards O'Doherty and others behavior during this campaign, I'm struck by how easily they casually insult councillors for not voting for them, or suggest some manner of corruption, or even threaten to sue in one instance, then go straight onto the next council and do it again. There's no sense of just, you know, playing the game, like all of those who actually got nominated presumably did. It just makes you feel even more like the mind is more on book deals than actually running for office. You can shout "Corruption!" and "Collusion!" all you want, but when running for political office you have to actually engage in politics on occasion.

[NeverFeltBetter]

O'Doherty gets her first nomination from Laois, after 13 of 17 present Councillors abstained, but was then roundly rejected by Cork County: https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2018/0924/995677-presidential-election-councils/

Think 5PM on Wednesday is the deadline, so getting pretty tight. Galway and Kildare meet later today.

[backstothewall]

6 names on the ballot. No more nominations possible

- Casey, Peter (Ind)
- Duffy, Gavin (Ind)
- Freeman, Joan (Ind)
- Gallagher, Seán (Ind)
- Higgins, Michael D (Ind)
- Ní Riada, Liadh (SF)

I'll be shocked if Higgins isn't re-elected on the 1st count.

[Eminence Grise]

GO'D still has until tomorrow for a nomination from 20 members of the Oireachtas. Assuming Ni Riada polls c.20%, I can't see the others adding up to 30%+1 vote, so seven more years of Ave Imperator looks likely on the first count alright. Aside from SF, there isn't even a viable protest vote for people to latch on to.

[NeverFeltBetter]

She's been requesting that Sinn Fein give her their "excess" eight Oireachtas members. Like their a commodity to be given out, and have no opinions of their own. I don't think the whip extends that far.

[backstothewall]

GO'D still has until tomorrow for a nomination from 20 members of the Oireachtas. Assuming Ni Riada polls c.20%, I can't see the others adding up to 30%+1 vote, so seven more years of Ave Imperator looks likely on the first count alright. Aside from SF, there isn't even a viable protest vote for people to latch on to.

I don't see SF getting anything like 20%. MDH has a lot of appeal for SF voters and Martin McGuinness only managed 13% last time. Ní Riada is a much lower profile candidate up against a popular incumbent.

The whole Castro thing will have done Higgins no harm at all among the voters SF could potentially pick up

[NeverFeltBetter]

O'Doherty claimed in a late post last night she just needs Solidarity's 6 TD's to get over the line, so she must have 14. They aren't interested in Presidential elections though. Someone on Twitter pointed out that her repeated refrain of excess SF Oireachtas members being allocated to her is literally impossible, as they all already signed for Ni Riada and can't nominate anyone else. I'll fully admit I was ignorant of that, but am surprised someone running for President was. Barring an extremely unlikely volte face, six existing candidates it is. Sinn Fein already have posters going up in Dublin.

[osarusan]

I can't imagine that Sinn Fein are hoping for anything other than a way to get the party more air time.

Particularly at a time when none of the other main parties are fielding a candidate, so they'll be the only party with that air time.

[NeverFeltBetter]

While Higgins is nominally an Independent, you'd imagine Labour will try and bandwagon on his popularity as much as possible, and make hay out of his success. I pass Joe Costello's constituency office every day, and he's never taken down the 2011 poster.

[Mr A]

I can't imagine that Sinn Fein are hoping for anything other than a way to get the party more air time.

Particularly at a time when none of the other main parties are fielding a candidate, so they'll be the only party with that air time.

Getting airtime for a anti-vax, anti-fluoride candidate may not be good for them. I think SF had an open goal here to do very well, even if never likely to win, but the candidate seems pretty weak.

[NeverFeltBetter]

It's only to fair to point out that Ni Riada came out as pro-vaccination fairly definitively in interviews last week, very clearly trying to draw a line under that ill-thought out interview a few years ago. She never confirmed if she allowed her daughter to be given the vaccine though, though I suppose there is a question mark over if its appropriate to ask that.

I'm more interested, from a politics as horse-race perspective, in seeing what sticks to the President, if anything, over the next few weeks. You know parts of the media will be desperate to spice up what appears to be a walkover for him, and I doubt he will be soft-balled by the national broadcaster again, not with Sean Gallagher in attendance.

[NeverFeltBetter]

First debate on the radio just now. Duffy came off like an empty vessel to me, the Gay Mitchell of this election. Freeman and Ni Riada were OK, weirdly thought Casey came off as the best of the four. Some nonsense talk of initiatives and not being able to speak Irish and Irish neutrality, but a mostly pleasant debate.

Regards Ni Riada and vaccines, her refusal to confirm her daughter took it would indicate to me she hasn't. Even if the MEP is concerned about her family's privacy, she only has to say "Yes, she has" once to make it go away, and she comes off very badly when trying to avoid answering.

[mypost]

What difference does it make to her ability to do the job?

This is a ceremonial role, it's not that difficult. It's been a cushy retirement home for the current incumbent for the last 7 years, so understandably he wants another 7 to sit there and do nothing 300 odd days of the year.

[backstothewall]

What difference does it make to her ability to do the job?

What concerns me about it is what it says about her ability to understand complex information and base her actions on evidence rather than the anecdote put forward by the last person to speak to her.

Most of the job is ceremonial but meetings of the Council of State happen with some regularity because the President is occasionally presented with complex constitutional issues to consider.

We need someone in the office with enough wit to take their child for the MMR given that the MMR vaccine prevents illnesses with potentially catastrophic consequences, and that there is a mountain of research into the MMR, all of which has found it to be safe.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I'll admit, I'm already a bit weary of the large-scale focus on campaign financing that seems to have taken over media coverage. With the exception of Joan Freeman's 120K loan from Des Walsh of Herbalife - hardly the best source of funds, even if speaking purely on a perception basis - there's nothing shocking to be uncovered really.

[osarusan]

I think that given the likely non-competetive nature of the election race itself, the media will have to scrabble round for anything to generate noise.

[Mr A]

Freeman was nominally a decent candidate given her work with Pieta House but her dodgy funding, ant choice views and bizarre denials of knowledge of the Iona Institute that her niece is part of and that she moves in similar circles too have undermined her in my eyes.

Casey is a plonker. Anyone stupid enough to post a video of them driving a golf ball into the sea is too idiotic to be president. Is he just there as an attack dog for Gallagher?

Ni Riada may have backed away from the anti-vax stuff, but anto vaxxers pretty much always pretend not to be anti-vax. Throw in her fluoridation concerns and there are serious question marks as to her judgement.

Gallagher hid for 7 years, was involved in not a single public issue and now seems to feel entitled to a hearing because he was harshly treated last time. Even though the tweet in the case was fake, the central allegation of being an FF bag man was essentially true. And he is still the proxy FF man TBH.

Duffy could scarcely be more out of touch. Hunting FFS? Has various worrying tendencies and is also clearly the guy for FG voters who need a home.

Can't get past the suspicion that the presidency is be used as a chance to boost profiles as much as anything.

[NeverFeltBetter]

https://www.rte.ie/news/presidential-election/2018/1002/1000480-presidential-debates/

Higgins won't take part in every planned debate for reasons that aren't really outlined. He also takes what I can only describe as a not-so-subtle dig at candidates who can't speak Irish.

[peadar1987]

What difference does it make to her ability to do the job?

This is a ceremonial role, it's not that difficult. It's been a cushy retirement home for the current incumbent for the last 7 years, so understandably he wants another 7 to sit there and do nothing 300 odd days of the year.

The president is a representative of Ireland on the world stage. I'd prefer not to have a pure fanny doing that job

[OwlsFan]

6 names on the ballot. No more nominations possible

- Casey, Peter (Ind)
- Duffy, Gavin (Ind)
- Freeman, Joan (Ind)
- Gallagher, Seán (Ind)
- Higgins, Michael D (Ind)
- Ní Riada, Liadh (SF)

I'll be shocked if Higgins isn't re-elected on the 1st count.

Half from Dragon's Den. As OMC would say, "how bizarre". Talk about a split vote and who actually watches that programme? There's a good chance that Ni Riada could come second on the first count, assuming that Higgins gets a high vote. Gavin Duffy would be too pompous for me. Not sure who I'd vote for.

[Mr A]

WTAF was Gallagher thinking? He disappears from public life for seven years and this is the message on his return? Bloody hell.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1048875833064972288

[NeverFeltBetter]

I got to the second line of that and promptly snorted in derision.

[nigel-harps1954]

The reply on there "vogon poetry at it's finest" made me proper laugh out loud.

[backstothewall]

RedC/PaddyPower opinion poll has Higgins on 70% of the first preference vote. Gallagher on 15% and nobody else getting more than 6%.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Biggest vote get in Presidential elections was Dev in 59, with 56%. That was against one opponent, so to have an apparent following of more than that when facing five is very indicative of how ineffectual the five are.

The debates will be interesting insofar as how those five try and do anything to change that. You can expect a few attempts at baiting Higgins into saying something he shouldn't. But he really does just need to stay quiet and keep saying the platitudes.

[backstothewall]

It's such a huge lead that it hardly matters that Gallagher is on 15%. The only possible way this can become competitive is if someone can produce a video of Higgins smoking crack or having sex with a farmyard animal. In the event that something like that happens it feels like the others have more or less got an equal chance of picking up the most votes when his 70% go into the wind.

The most realistic scenario for one of the others becoming president is literally that Michael D Higgins dies between now and election day.

[dahamsta]

The risk with polls like this is that people won't bother voting. I'm always pushing people to vote and even I'm feeling apathetic (I think the post is redundant, and the candidates are even more redundant), but hopefully the referendum will encourage people to do it since they're there anyway.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I'll say this: Claire Byrne having to be Higgins' mouthpiece when he can't be bothered to turn up is fairly shoddy stuff, from the President and and from RTE.

[dahamsta]

I read an article about it earlier, but the "journalist" didn't think to include Higgins' excuse, what did he say?

[NeverFeltBetter]

I haven't seen one, just a spokespersons "He told everyone what debates he would and wouldn't be attending the other week". At least for the first (radio) one he was entertaining some royals, he doesn't appear to have been doing anything last night.

[NeverFeltBetter]

On a day when Presidential election news is all about Casey's comments on Travellers, another poll puts Higgins at 66% support: https://www.rte.ie/news/presidential-election/2018/1017/1004716-presidential-election/

On Casey, for a man who claims to abhor Trump he sure follows the playbook. Not doing much for him mind.

[osarusan]

On a day when Presidential election news is all about Casey's comments on Travellers, another poll puts Higgins at 66% support: https://www.rte.ie/news/presidential-election/2018/1017/1004716-presidential-election/

On Casey, for a man who claims to abhor Trump he sure follows the playbook. Not doing much for him mind.
Casey is going down the path of making blunt statements and looking for the 'tells it like it is, even if the PC brigade don't like it' vote. Maybe it's the only way to garner any publicity - this the lowest key presidential campaign I can remember.