Denmark V Republic of Ireland - Sat, 11 November 2017 World Cup 2018 Play Off 1st Leg

[tricky_colour]

Agreed Tricky. But I've seen more than 1 of our players miss the entire pitch with simple passes. If Randolph got his head over it and thumped it it would take some saving the way he hits them.

I was disappointed by the presale. Long gone by the time I got there.


Especially if it goes over the bar!

On the plus side Darren has never missed a penalty, however he has never scored one either as, as far as I know he has never taken one.

This would seem to confirm.

https://www.transfermarkt.com/darren-randolph/elfmetertore/spieler/51321/plus/0?saison_id=ges&wettbewerb_id=

So he is an unknown quantity as far as penalties go.

When I was thinking about penalty takers the name Jeff Hendrick sprang to mind, he is an unknown quality too though.

I think he would be pretty good at them, as to why well I think could offer this as evidence, he beats two defenders and the keeper at 1.17.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2r6sXRc_BgE

Not the same as a penalty though but he looks a pretty cool customer there under pressure.

I could be massively wrong of course, they need to sort out the penalty takers in practice, to at least weed out the ones
who are hopeless in practices. We will find out who are hopeless as the real thing should it come to penalties.

Perhaps of more importance as far as Randolph is concern is his penalty saved record is, which is according to this
8 in 39. That is 20.5%

[tricky_colour]

What however is of significance is Colin Doyle record of 6 save in 19 that is 31.5% saved.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=81&v=0ireKCJTqA8

Some impressive bouncing on the line there!!

Hence something to consider there if it looks like it is headed for penalties is whether to sub Doyle at some point.

[tricky_colour]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gjsy0YFrh7k
V Jaun Mata, Mata is not very good at penalties, missed 4 in 14.

Mind you 2 of those 4 were v Doyle! So more or a credit to Doyle than a discredit to Mata perhaps?

[tricky_colour]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjWqGB3dUik
Mata showing he is crap whatever side he puts it! :indecisiveness: (0.50 ish)

[DannyInvincible]

Direct flights from Dublin to Copenhagen and back are now £492: https://www.skyscanner.net/transport/flights/dub/cope/171110/171112/airfares-from-dublin-to-copenhagen-in-november-2017.html?adults=1&children=0&adultsv2=1&childrenv2=&infants=0&cabinclass=economy&rtn=1&preferdirects=true&outboundaltsenabled=false&inboundaltsenabled=false&qp_prevProvider=ins_browse&qp_prevCurrency=GBP&priceSourceId=b3ms-unspecified&qp_prevPrice=492

Madness.

[Charlie Darwin]

Perhaps of more importance as far as Randolph is concern is his penalty saved record is, which is according to this
8 in 39. That is 20.5%
Is that the rate that he saved them or the rate the other player missed? In either case, 20.5% is around the average or slightly above.

[tricky_colour]

Is that the rate that he saved them or the rate the other player missed? In either case, 20.5% is around the average or slightly above.

That is the percent he saved, which will be the rate the other player missed now I have thought about it lol.

Yea I thought it seemed about average, however Colin Doyle record of 6 save in 19 is 31.5% saved which is quite impressive
so I think it should be a consideration as to whether we can sub Doyle on if the opportunity arises, some keeper tend to have
a knack of stopping penalties, it is a bit of a specialised skill I think, more mind games than anything else perhaps?

Doyle is nearly 1 in 3 so he might do 2 in 5 perhaps. Randolph looks more of a 1 in 5 man.

[Charlie Darwin]

Well not all missed penalties are saved - I think about 4% are off-target (I can look it up tomorrow).

It's certainly something a manager could do before a shoot out. Paul Cook did it in the FAI Cup final in 2010 when he brought Ciaran Kelly on for Brendan Clarke a minute from the end and Shamrock Rovers missed all four penalties. Louis Van Gaal did the same and brought on Tim Krul for Jasper Cillessen in the World Cup semi in 2014.

[DannyInvincible]

According to this (https://www.thesun.ie/sport/football/1684579/denmark-boss-age-hareide-reckons-he-knows-what-to-expect-from-martin-oneills-ireland/), bookings will be carried into the play-offs.


Kasper Schmeichel, Christian Eriksen and Thomas Delaney are among nine Danes who would miss the trip to Dublin if booked in the first leg.

Happy to see Eriksen is on a booking there. So, how can we go about ensuring he gets another one in the first leg? :devil:

Is there a list of our players who are on bookings?

[Closed Account 2]

Louis Van Gaal did the same and brought on Tim Krul for Jasper Cillessen in the World Cup semi in 2014.

Think it was the quarters against Costa Rica where he did that. LvG had used all three subs a little way into extra time so couldn't repeat the trick in the semi final. Incidentally the Dutch had a big advantage in the Costa Rica game, as the Costa Rican's had gone to penalties in their R16 match vs Greece and 4 out of the 5 takers for them that day also took penalties against the Dutch. The Dutch then had this happen to them as 3 of the 4 takers vs Argentina had taken PKs vs Costa Rica.

Hopefully someone somewhere in the FAI is taking a look at where the likely Danish players put their penalties, and seeing if there are any clues on placement in the run-ups of the takers. Kasper Schmeichel has saved 17 and not saved 48, maybe they could take a look at if he biases a certain side, or say always dives (leaving the top middle of the goal as an option) - if we have a very technical player (Hoolahan or Brady) they could then try and go for the other side (or down the middle).

[IsMiseSean]

Direct flights from Dublin to Copenhagen and back are now £492: https://www.skyscanner.net/transport/flights/dub/cope/171110/171112/airfares-from-dublin-to-copenhagen-in-november-2017.html?adults=1&children=0&adultsv2=1&childrenv2=&infants=0&cabinclass=economy&rtn=1&preferdirects=true&outboundaltsenabled=false&inboundaltsenabled=false&qp_prevProvider=ins_browse&qp_prevCurrency=GBP&priceSourceId=b3ms-unspecified&qp_prevPrice=492

Madness.

That's nuts. I was lucky enough to get mine at a relatively decent price (aided by a tip off)

[backstothewall]

On the penalties missed/saved thing, I'm inclined to view penalties as a mental duel between goalkeeper and penalty taker. If the player misses the target I'm happy for the goalkeeper to get the credit for doing something to put him off.

The layout of Lansdowne Road should help us in the event of a shootout. One would imagine it will have to be at our end for the benefit of the extra spectators in that stand.

[tricky_colour]

On the penalties missed/saved thing, I'm inclined to view penalties as a mental duel between goalkeeper and penalty taker. If the player misses the target I'm happy for the goalkeeper to get the credit for doing something to put him off.

The layout of Lansdowne Road should help us in the event of a shootout. One would imagine it will have to be at our end for the benefit of the extra spectators in that stand.

Actually home teams do have a slight advantage on penalties.

http://business-analytic.co.uk/blog/is-there-a-home-advantage-for-penalties/


the scoring http://www.mindanews.com/buy-accutane/ rates home and away are much of a muchness; 77.3% for home teams and 75.0% for away teams.

I would speculate that this maybe due to the ref favouring the home team as regards to whether a penalty needs to be retaken?

[KrisLetang]

How many of the four match ups would you think will come down to penalties...can i bet on that? I'll say two. Ire and NI.

[tricky_colour]

How many of the four match ups would you think will come down to penalties...can i bet on that? I'll say two. Ire and NI.

If history is anything to go by none. If I have read it correctly none of the European play off in 2014 or 2016 went to penalties.

None even went to the away goals rule.

However that is all history, I think we may be due a match going to penalties, doubt it will be two.

[KrisLetang]

What would the odds be that it was all four? Would you take that bet at 5000-1 Tricky?

[Charlie Darwin]

1p at 5,000-1 would leave tricky quids in. Literally 50 quid.

[Fizzer]

Whilst I think anyone should be allowed to basically say anything on here I would like to say that the constant references to gambling odds bothers me a great deal.it serves to legitimise a remorselessly destructive industry,particularly in its online form.the big gambling companies are up there with big tobacco and big alcohol,they are a cancer on society generally but particularly in sport.they have irretrievably taken over virtually all sport and commercialised it beyond recognition.apologies if a little negative on a Saturday morning but I felt it had to be said

[Diggs246]

Whilst I think anyone should be allowed to basically say anything on here I would like to say that the constant references to gambling odds bothers me a great deal.it serves to legitimise a remorselessly destructive industry,particularly in its online form.the big gambling companies are up there with big tobacco and big alcohol,they are a cancer on society generally but particularly in sport.they have irretrievably taken over virtually all sport and commercialised it beyond recognition.apologies if a little negative on a Saturday morning but I felt it had to be said

I bet you 50 quid you regret that post

[tetsujin1979]

I've left a few references slide, in future keep all betting discussions in the betting forum

[seanfhear]

Whilst I think anyone should be allowed to basically say anything on here I would like to say that the constant references to gambling odds bothers me a great deal.it serves to legitimise a remorselessly destructive industry,particularly in its online form.the big gambling companies are up there with big tobacco and big alcohol,they are a cancer on society generally but particularly in sport.they have irretrievably taken over virtually all sport and commercialised it beyond recognition.apologies if a little negative on a Saturday morning but I felt it had to be said


I've left a few references slide, in future keep all betting discussions in the betting forumWell done .

[IsMiseSean]

So does this mean we can't talk about the price of pints in Copenhagen etc, because someone might feel uncomfortable reading posts about alcohol?

It's a bit ridiculous lads.

[johnnyc]

This is foot.ie lads, sure you can't be going off topic in a thread on here. No way. Never.

[tetsujin1979]

We've been through this before, all betting discussions are to be kept in the betting forum

[bennocelt]

I've left a few references slide, in future keep all betting discussions in the betting forum

Thats a bit silly, its really not that bad......:rolleyes:

[tetsujin1979]

Thats a bit silly, its really not that bad......:rolleyes: it was discussed by the mods the last time this came up, and we agreed that any betting discussion would be kept to its own forum.

If anyone has a problem with this, open a thread in the support forum to change it

[Olé Olé]

Some Interesting points by Eamonn Sweeney in the Sindo. One I never realised is that the Danes failed to qualify for the Euros after coming second to Albania in their group and subsequently losing to Sweden in the play-offs. He actually lends a bit of context to the ability of their players and their relative clubs also. He probably focuses a bit on negative of such players.

There's also a bit in the paper on the front page that MON remaining on isn't a done deal like that we had been previously led to believe. It's from Colin Young though and I'm not particularly familiar with his work so make of that what you will. Colin seems to think that Martin inhibits a slight desire to return to club management. A lot of the article appears pretty baseless. He reckons the links for MON to the Leicester job "come at the wrong time". That's probably utter rubbish because the odds are against us qualifying so he'd be available in a month. A lot of baseless tripe in this one if you ask me... I'm not saying it's signed, sealed and delivered but the reasoning in this article is poor, from what I can see.

[elroy]

Some Interesting points by Eamonn Sweeney in the Sindo. One I never realised is that the Danes failed to qualify for the Euros after coming second to Albania in their group and subsequently losing to Sweden in the play-offs. He actually lends a bit of context to the ability of their players and their relative clubs also. He probably focuses a bit on negative of such players.

There's also a bit in the paper on the front page that MON remaining on isn't a done deal like that we had been previously led to believe. It's from Colin Young though and I'm not particularly familiar with his work so make of that what you will. Colin seems to think that Martin inhibits a slight desire to return to club management. A lot of the article appears pretty baseless. He reckons the links for MON to the Leicester job "come at the wrong time". That's probably utter rubbish because the odds are against us qualifying so he'd be available in a month. A lot of baseless tripe in this one if you ask me... I'm not saying it's signed, sealed and delivered but the reasoning in this article is poor, from what I can see.

I watched most of those playoffs and distinctly remember the Sweden V Denmark games. Over the two legs, Denmark were poor but the real difference was Zlatan. The second leg was in Denmark but they were second best that night. They got two late goals to make the overall aggregate score look decent.

I don't think Denmark are any better than what we faced in our group. Debatable if they are even as good as Serbia. On paper, they have a better team but then so did Bosnia.....

[boysingreen]

Don't know much about Denmark. They were seeded, and Eriksen will be the best player on the park, so give them a slight edge on paper. We have the advantage of playing home second. Anyone feel strongly (either way) that this tie is not 50/50?

[jbyrne]

We have the advantage of playing home second.

is this really an advantage to us though? first legs are usually cagey enough and if we fail to score away then i fear denmark will score in the 2nd leg leaving us needing at least 2. not sure i can see this happening on our recent home form. think id rather playing at home first where even taking a nil all to denmark would leave us in a decent position given we have scored in all the games against wales, austria and serbia away in our group.

[Olé Olé]

Don't know much about Denmark. They were seeded, and Eriksen will be the best player on the park, so give them a slight edge on paper. We have the advantage of playing home second. Anyone feel strongly (either way) that this tie is not 50/50?

On paper, I would have it 65/35 to Denmark with Eriksen accounting for a good portion of the 15 per cent swing. Him aside, I think we are evenly matched.

Thereafter, it's hard to put weighting on the advantage of playing at home second, MON potentially putting the shackles on Eriksen and our determination.

I'd probably put it very slightly in the Danes favour and go 52/48 (that sounds awfully contrived) and say that we will need some luck to nick it but there's plenty hope there.

[tetsujin1979]

is this really an advantage to us though? first legs are usually cagey enough and if we fail to score away then i fear denmark will score in the 2nd leg leaving us needing at least 2. not sure i can see this happening on our recent home form. think id rather playing at home first where even taking a nil all to denmark would leave us in a decent position given we have scored in all the games against wales, austria and serbia away in our group.

Historically, I would say it is. Only once in a play off have we qualified after playing at home in the first leg (2002), and in 1997 and 1999 we failed to qualify after a home play off. In 2011 and 2015 we qualified after playing away from home first. There's an argument that the qualifying group for the 1966 world cup was effectively a play off after Syria pulled out, leaving ourselves and Spain as the only teams. Both sides won their home games, leading to a one off game in Paris that Spain won.

[tricky_colour]

is this really an advantage to us though? first legs are usually cagey enough and if we fail to score away then i fear denmark will score in the 2nd leg leaving us needing at least 2. not sure i can see this happening on our recent home form. think id rather playing at home first where even taking a nil all to denmark would leave us in a decent position given we have scored in all the games against wales, austria and serbia away in our group.

I'd go along with that, the away goals rule is an asset in the second leg as they know how many away goals they need to have more away goals than us.
Once they have more away goals a draw will win for them.

We won't know how many away goals they will get in the first leg, basically we need to win 10-1 in the first leg.

[nigel-harps1954]

I'd go along with that, the away goals rule is an asset in the second leg as they know how many away goals they need to have more away goals than us.
Once they have more away goals a draw will win for them.

We won't know how many away goals they will get in the first leg, basically we need to win 10-1 in the first leg.


The argument can be made though to scrape a 1-0 win away from home and park the bus for 90 minutes in Dublin knowing they'll have to score two, which would be Martin O'Neill in a nutshell really.

[boysingreen]

Despite our recent home/away form, think second leg home is a real psychological advantage, which is particularly meaningful when there isn't much between two teams.

[BonnieShels]

Defo prefer away leg second. Wouldn't bother me so much if the away goals did not count in ET but they do.

[tricky_colour]

The argument can be made though to scrape a 1-0 win away from home and park the bus for 90 minutes in Dublin knowing they'll have to score two, which would be Martin O'Neill in a nutshell really.

No they will need to score 1 to level it. Then if they score another we need to score two! Plus if it is 1-1 then it will go to extra time with them
having the away goals advantage.

If they keep the first leg 0-0 then a goal for them in the second leg virtually seals it for them. We rarely score more then one goal against decent teams,
we need a 1-0 win in our away leg. Otherwise we have to park the bus for 120 mins!
We are better away from home anyway as we can't take the game to the opposition at home.
It is gonna be tough!

[D24Saint]

How long does it take for a ticket application to be accepted or rejected on the away fai site ?

[jbyrne]

How long does it take for a ticket application to be accepted or rejected on the away fai site ?

id say 10 days from today

[paul_oshea]

Reading the comments above how we get a goal and/or 0-1 in Denmark is ridiculous talk. O'Neill keeps emphasising keeping the "tie alive" for the home game, which basically means not losing in MON speak. So he is hoping for a 0-0. What people and MON himself seem to forget is our home form is terrible and its our away form that has kept us going - as the home team emphasis on scoring we catch a break. I'd be happy enough us conceding in Denmark so it pushes us to equalise. I could see oneill though keeping it at 1-0 thinking we are ok when we get them home though. I can really see that, which is a big worry. I think either way we have to score in Denmark - we won't keep them scoreless over 180 mins.

[OwlsFan]

We've been through this before, all betting discussions are to be kept in the betting forum

I very seldom bet but I always think the odds put forward by bookies are interesting if only to see what Ireland's chances of winning a game are (bookies seldom get it wrong etc.).

Home or away leg first ? I think home leg second is best. If the home crowd is up for it, sometimes no matter how many the side loses by in the first leg, the deficit can be clawed back (I remember a Barcelona game (I appreciate we're not Barca) a season or two ago where they came back was it from 4 down in the first leg?). However, I still wouldn't rate our chances too highly if we lose first leg 1-0 since, Bosnia HG aside, I am struggling to think of a 2-0 home win over any side which wasn't a minnow. Our best hope is 0-0 and 1-0/2-1.

These play offs are lotteries (sorry, is this mentioning betting ?) and we just have to hope for the breaks, get no one sent off, ride our luck and sneak a goal or two. Great to look forward to but impossible to predict.

[backstothewall]

Anyone know when the squad will be named?

[paul_oshea]

I think a 1-1 draw away would be a great result. I'd take it now*

*Assuming we don't see a Serbia type defensive unit away at home appear.

[DannyInvincible]

I also fear O'Neill will play for a 0-0 away instead of pushing for what could be a crucial away goal considering a 1-1 in Copenhagen and a 0-0 in Dublin would take us through.


Anyone know when the squad will be named?

It's usually a fortnight or so in advance, isn't it?

[nigel-harps1954]

Anyone know when the squad will be named?

Thursday at 1pm

[KrisLetang]

I really worry it is going to be 1-0 Denmark in the first game and then 0-0 at home.

When do they announce which officiating crew it is going to be?

[IsMiseSean]

I think a 1-1 draw away would be a great result. I'd take it now*

*Assuming we don't see a Serbia type defensive unit away at home appear.

I'd have to agree with you here Paul.
It might have been better if we had the home leg first. Get a MON special 0-0 at home and then take the shackles off in Copenhagen. Not to be though.

I'm guessing you're travelling over?

[paul_oshea]

Yes I am, are you? My Sidekick is having his baby's christening the same day of the away leg - very bad planning. But he wont be making as many away games now. We'll both be in Dublin though if you are up.

[IsMiseSean]

Yes I am, are you? My Sidekick is having his baby's christening the same day of the away leg - very bad planning. But he wont be making as many away games now. We'll both be in Dublin though if you are up.

Yeah, I'm going over matchday morning. I'll give you a shout when I land.
That's poor form by the sidekick, thought he'd know better!!

[tetsujin1979]

Squad to be named tomorrow, according to the42.ie: http://www.the42.ie/callum-odowda-bristol-city-goal-crystal-palace-3662912-Oct2017/

Martin O’Neill names his squad for the World Cup play-off with Denmark tomorrow and O’Dowda is certain to be in it, having made his first competitive start in the recent win over Moldova.
Haven't seen this mentioned anywhere else though

<EDIT>

Just seen the squad announcement mentioned on rte.ie