World Cup Qualifying - Group D

[DeLorean]

I'd be surprised of any team remained unbeaten in this group to be honest, and pleasantly shocked if we did.

[geysir]

In our 2016 qual group both Poland and Scotland came into it very much improved after awful efforts to qualify for wc 2014. Form is an unknown quantity until the campaign starts.
Atm, our qualifying prospects are grim but things can change radically in the order of things.

Minus
Traditionally we are shíte v Austria.
Georgia are well overdue a result against us, somehow there was a mix up last time and they ambushed Scotland instead.

Plus
Wales are better than us but they're local, so 2 draws is not fantasy.
Serbia, a win and a draw is viable
No team will run away with this group, the top 2 teams Wales and Austria will both drop points aplenty.

[Charlie Darwin]

Traditionally we're ****e against Austria, but even at our worst point in years we should have beaten them at home. They're nothing special at all.

[DeLorean]

How were they so impressive in qualification though? I know the obvious answer - Sweden being no great shakes and Russia being awful etc., but 28 points out of 30 is still exceptionally good, especially for a non-powerhouse. Nine wins in a row, including victories in Montenegro, Sweden and Russia is stuff we could only dream about, we're simply incapable of putting that kind of a run together, even in our best periods.

I can't help but feel that things just didn't work out for them in France, if they had managed to force that winner against Iceland, which looked likely enough, who knows what they could have went on to do, especially when you consider what Portugal achieved after struggling in the same group. It will be very interesting to see how they react in this campaign.

[Stuttgart88]

The Euros aren't the benchmark really. They had a stinker of a first game against Hungary where nothing went right. The first goal was always going to win that game and they might just as easily have got it as Hungary. That loss made Iceland a must-win, hence the "every man forward" approach late in the game that cost them a goal.

They're clearly a very accomplished qualifying side and I'd fancy them to do well again.

I think lots of points will be dropped among the 4 teams.

[paul_oshea]

Listen it's all about opinions. For us not to lose a game snatch one win at home against our rivals and draw the rest, while doing the double over Georgia and moldova would give us 20 points.

Wales d d 2
Serbia w d 4
Austria d d 2
Georgia w w 6
Moldova w w 6
20 pts.

Austria quite frankly have a stinker of a start. After the disaster of the Euro campaign, they've to go to Tblisi and win, then they host Wales and visit Beograd in the Oct double-header. Regardless of how they've done, I'm happy to go to Vienna and come away with a point at the end of this year. If Austria aren't careful, they could be out of contention by the time 2017 rolls around - just look at how tough it was for us after Euro 2012, despite us not really having a swinging chance in 2012, Austria had a nice group this time round.

I decided to have a look back to see how implausible it would be for us to remain unbeaten and not make the top two.

Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? 0
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a World qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? Once - our group in 2006.
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? Twice, one of which was our group for Euro 2000 when Croatia didn't make it through.
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after losing one game in the past 18 years? 4 times, again which included our group of 2006.

Whats the difference between these two?
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? 0
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? Twice, one of which was our group for Euro 2000 when Croatia didn't make it through.

[DeLorean]

Whats the difference between these two?

The answer, seemingly. :)

[DeLorean]

I think lots of points will be dropped among the 4 teams.

I would think so too. That said, if I was told now that one team is going to run away with the group I would really expect it to be Austria.

[pineapple stu]

Whats the difference between these two?
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? 0
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? Twice, one of which was our group for Euro 2000 when Croatia didn't make it through.
There was also no Euros in 2006 -


Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after losing one game in the past 18 years? 4 times, again which included our group of 2006.

I also don't think many teams at all have gone unbeaten in the last 18 years. :)

I think the whole thing should actually read -


Do you know how many teams in the past 18 years have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten? 0
Do you know how many teams in the past 18 years have not finished in the top 2 in a World Cup qualifying group after remaining unbeaten? Once - our group in 2006.
Do you know how many teams in the past 18 years have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after losing one game? Twice, one of which was our group for Euro 2000 when Croatia didn't make it through.
Do you know how many teams in the past 18 years have not finished in the top 2 in a World Cup qualifying group after losing one game? 4 times, again which included our group of 2006.

That said, I think any notion of going unbeaten through this group is fanciful.

[DeLorean]

I'll be delighted if we're still unbeaten after the first game!

[paul_oshea]

There was also no Euros in 2006 -



I also don't think many teams at all have gone unbeaten in the last 18 years. :)

I think the whole thing should actually read -



That said, I think any notion of going unbeaten through this group is fanciful.

Ya a lot of those seemed a bit off for me, but I was trying to understand what he was saying first and foremost. I failed at the first attempt :D

And ya, I dont think he meant 18 games unbeaten, just in qualifying matches alone he meant but that was a given even if not written and/or explained

[geysir]

Traditionally we're ****e against Austria, but even at our worst point in years we should have beaten them at home. They're nothing special at all.
Group D is a competitive vanilla group, traditionally Austria didn't need to be anything special to better us, they've been on the way up for the last 4 years and have finally crossed that qualifying barrier with ease. They blooded a new kid called Schöpf at the Euros who really impressed me.

I don't know why Serbia have such a poor qualifier record, relative to their player pool. It's as if there's a lack of interest, an apathy or some serious issues around the international set up. A coach's personality could swing it, I see their new coach has actually managed more clubs than Jack Nicklaus.

[paul_oshea]

That and points deducted and 3-0 wins awarded, its a serious factor for lack of motivation.

I think if they start well they will be there abouts come the end of the campaign, they have a decent squad of players.

[Kingdom]

It's very simple. Paul thinks if we remain unbeaten but only win once against our rivals we probably will not qualify. Rather than post all of the qualifying records since Euro 2000 which I probably should, the results show that we will have a very very high percentage chance of making a playoff.

[geysir]

It's very simple. Paul thinks if we remain unbeaten but only win once against our rivals we probably will not qualify. Rather than post all of the qualifying records since Euro 2000 which I probably should, the results show that we will have a very very high percentage chance of making a playoff.
In your orig post you mentioned two targets, remaining unbeaten against our rivals and the other target remaining unbeaten in the the group. Your questions were about just remaining unbeaten in the group campaign. There is a big difference between the two.

2006 wc qual campaign (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA)), the group of draws, if we had managed that 6th draw v France, i don't think we would have finished in top 2, would have been 4 teams on 18points and goal diff kicks in. But definitely one win and 5 draws would have clinched top spot there..
Our 3 rivals were unbeaten in that campaign.

[Kingdom]

It absolutely was - with hindsight. Nobody expected Armenia to figure as much as they did in that group.

Since we've started challenging for groups (okay okay, for runner's up in groups) the formula is pretty simple. 6 points from the weak teams or lower seeds. Draw with the higher seeds away and nick one win at home. That's a pretty solid template if you're a second or third seed to begin with. When you're fourth seed that is a different kettle of fish!

If we were to remain unbeaten on the road, beating Moldova and Georgia home and away, and got one victory at home remaining unbeaten against the others, I'd be happy enough with that.


In your orig post you mentioned two targets, remaining unbeaten against our rivals and the other target remaining unbeaten in the the group. Your questions were about just remaining unbeaten in the group campaign. There is a big difference between the two.



That's my original post. Paul disagreed with that, which led to next inquisition post. I'm obviously stupid, because I fail to see what is hard to grasp about my posts.

[geysir]

Ah, I didn't see that post, i only read your next original post (http://foot.ie/threads/213559-World-Cup-Qualifying-Group-D?p=1880903&viewfull=1#post1880903).

Any thoughts on my live case scenario from past campaign?

[Kingdom]

In your orig post you mentioned two targets, remaining unbeaten against our rivals and the other target remaining unbeaten in the the group. Your questions were about just remaining unbeaten in the group campaign. There is a big difference between the two.

2006 wc qual campaign (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA)), the group of draws, if we had managed that 6th draw v France, i don't think we would have finished in top 2, would have been 4 teams on 18points and goal diff kicks in. But definitely one win and 5 draws would have clinched top spot there..
Our 3 rivals were unbeaten in that campaign.


Ah, I didn't see that post, i only read your next original post (http://foot.ie/threads/213559-World-Cup-Qualifying-Group-D?p=1880903&viewfull=1#post1880903).

Any thoughts on my live case scenario from past campaign?

:)

You are spot on with the live case scenario. Even the draw in the game we lost would have only enabled us to finish 3rd, as I'm pretty sure standings were decided on points, goal difference then goals scored, unlike now where the head to head counts. Had it counted, we'd have finished 2nd on away goals v Switzerland.
And yes had we have had one win and remaining draws, we'd have topped the group.

[geysir]

:)

You are spot on with the live case scenario. Even the draw in the game we lost would have only enabled us to finish 3rd, as I'm pretty sure standings were decided on points, goal difference then goals scored, unlike now where the head to head counts. Had it counted, we'd have finished 2nd on away goals v Switzerland.
And yes had we have had one win and remaining draws, we'd have topped the group.
It was thee most complicated group in the closing stages re permutations,
When 3 or more teams are tied, the head to head doesn't figure. It turns into a mini group
Had that group ended with 4 teams level on points with all games drawn between the 4, it would have then come down to goals scored. In that mini group of 4, Israel would have topped the group with 7 and Swiss into playoff with 5
Had we equalised against france we would have been equal with Swiss on 5 goals scored but Swiss would still have gone through on criteria nr.4, goal diff in all group games.

[Deckydee]

Hi Guys,

Austria is my away trip this campaign and a pre-sale for the tickets has just gone online. There is a gotcha though...if you buy now you will need to buy for both the Irish and Welsh match. I really want to go as it is pretty close for me so I have already purchased for me and my other half (and her parents). Link here:

https://www.oeticket.com/fifa-world-cup-2018-qualifikationabo-oesterreich-wales-oesterreich-irland-wien-Tickets.html?affiliate=EOE&doc=artistPages%2Ftickets&fun=artist&action=tickets&key=1702508%248349509&jumpIn=yTix&kuid=501997&from=erdetaila

P.S - Anyone want 4 tickets for the Wales - Austria match? :p :cool: