For Ireland to make the Round of 16...

[BonnieShels]

Top 5 things I like.

1. Club Co-efficients
2. Bonus points
3. The Away goals rule
4. 24 team football tournaments
5. Fantasy football.

The worst thing in the world and should be done away with. Especially in Extra time of a second leg. Makes no sense.

[davidatrb]

Why are ye bothering with any of this lads? no point at all.

Two reasons really.

1) I find it interesting.

2) It can inform your tactics and team set up whether you need to win big, just win, draw or play like just a "friendly". What would you advise Ireland do if they find themselves fortuitously ahead 2-0 at half time and Sweden beating Belgium - push on for a third or save players? Is it better for us to finish 2nd or 3rd? Will it be Portugal/Iceland/Hungary? Or will it be France/Croatia/Spain? Do you think MON should be devising plan A, plan B etc and coaching the players for the eventuality where we need goals? I know nothing we can really do until 20:00 on weds but we can look ahead now and say if X happens can we be prepared for it. What if we are already out before kickoff? What if there is a side of the draw or a team you want to avoid and you find out you can. Wouldn't you want to know?

[SwanVsDalton]

Exactly. Doesn't mean I amn't going to go out and go the game, but I wouldn't bother wasting my energy going through these permutations but maybe thats the thing of this forum. Time to waste, to waste time.

https://s32.postimg.org/5p8vzasud/Image2.jpg

C'mon Paul, admit it - you couldn't do without us.

[Stuttgart88]

Why do you even bother? For a man who dwells in such a world of realism it seems strange to me that you ever watch Ireland or Mayo games at all? Now that's just silly.Roscommon.

I'll be far more interested in tomorrow's game if I know a 1-0 win will do us rather than a 4-0 win.

And we're fans Paul. That's why we bother.

[Stuttgart88]

The more I look at Group F we really need one of tonight's results to come in as needed. I'm actually quite nervous.

[BonnieShels]

Roscommon.

I'll be far more interested in tomorrow's game if I know a 1-0 win will do us rather than a 4-0 win.

And we're fans Paul. That's why we bother.

It's his location that always throws me. I was thinking Roscommon... but ya know. I doubted myself, just like Paul never would.

[davidatrb]

The more I look at Group F we really need one of tonight's results to come in as needed. I'm actually quite nervous.

I agree. And I can't figure out the logic of Bet365 where we are 2/1 to qualify but to beat Italy the odds are LONGER 12/5.

The odds to qualify should be longer than the odds to win the match because we might win and still not qualify but if we don't win we can't qualify.

[Siberian]

The more I look at Group F we really need one of tonight's results to come in as needed. I'm actually quite nervous.

Relax, the North haven't a hope of getting a result against Germany :cool:

[legendz]

Relax, the North haven't a hope of getting a result against Germany :cool:
I think it's Germany we need the favour from. Czech Republic should beat Turkey in D. In F, I think there will be 3 teams on at least 4 points.

[Fergie's Son]

Need Germany to win and win well. Simple as that. Five minutes gone and it's 0-0.

[legendz]

Müller should have scored for us!!

[legendz]

Need Germany to win and win well. Simple as that. Five minutes gone and it's 0-0.
We just need Germany to win. We will need to win as well. Goal difference won't matter.

[legendz]

Müller has missed another opportunity to score for us.

[pineapple stu]

There's 1-0 for Germany, and more to come you'd say.

[legendz]

I'd enjoy a win for us over Italy putting us through while denying Northern Ireland at the same time.

[Fergie's Son]

So the German-NI score doesn't matter so long as NI lose and we win tomorrow?

[pineapple stu]

Yes. Albania and the North would both be on 3 points and we'd have 4.

[Stuttgart88]

So the German-NI score doesn't matter so long as NI lose and we win tomorrow?

For us yes. Anything but a spanking might still be good enough for NI though. Not sure if that means 2,3 or 4.

[legendz]

Thank you Germany! It's in our hands now! Beat Italy and we're through to the last 16.

Ukraine have been whitewashed. They've lost all 3 of their group games.

[tricky_colour]

So 1-0 for NI was that good for us?

I think is must be as they can only get 3 where and we will never get 4.

Does allow us to live in a state of delusion until then though!:cool:

[tricky_colour]

Thank you Germany! It's in our hands now! Beat Italy and we're through to the last 16.

Ukraine have been whitewashed. They've lost all 3 of their group games.

Right so that is definite then?

We would have qualified if we had beaten Italy?

[davidatrb]

Right so that is definite then?

We would have qualified if we had beaten Italy?

Yes definitely beat Italy and we are definitely into the next round.

[tricky_colour]

Yes definitely beat Italy and we are definitely into the next round.


Ah right so we won't qualify then!

[pineapple stu]

Yes definitely beat Italy and we are definitely into the next round.
And the flip side is if we don't beat Italy, the North are almost definitely into the next round (have to have Sweden not beat Belgium as well, but that's quite likely based on the two games so far)

[DannyInvincible]

Right so that is definite then?

We would have qualified if we had beaten Italy?

Well, we haven't played them yet, but we will have to see how Martin O Neil and Roy Keane to managed Ireland tomorrow.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Win and in. Happy that it's in our hands, and there won't be any "Ah sure if only X and beaten Y" recriminations.

[legendz]

I'm content that it's in our hands. Some suggested before the tournament that 3 draws might have been enough. They might not be too far off the mark.

In the history of this format, a win and a draw is usually enough. It's proven to be the case again. As I said a few days ago, if we can't win a group game having lost a group game, we'll deserve to be going home.

N. Ireland's loss today was enough to ensure Slovakia qualified as one the best 3rd placed teams. If the Czech Republic fail to beat Turkey in the current live game, N. Ireland will be through tonight.

[davidatrb]

And the way it is going it is looking more and more like the prize for beating Italy would be a date with France.

[ger121]

And the way it is going it is looking more and more like the prize for beating Italy would be a date with France.

I'd say most of us would take that at this moment in time.

[davidatrb]

It's just frustrating.

We got Bosnia in the playoff for which was probably the worst case.

We were drawn in the toughest group from our point of view getting Italy as a second seed.

And now if we do get through we will be playing France host and second favourites.

Croatia just scored. We need Portugal to lose tomorrow for starters for a chance of them in next round.

[legendz]

Italy's reward for winning our group is Spain!

Slovakia and N. Ireland are through!

Hungary beating Portugal is the only result that can send Albania through.

If we win tomorrow and the other 3rd place team comes from Portugal's group, we'll be playing France with the winner taking on England or F runners-up. N. Ireland will be playing Wales in that scenario!

[Stuttgart88]

So, for example: Croatia plays 3rd in B, E or F. How is it determined if B, E or F?

[davidatrb]

There are some pretty easy little corners in the draw.

Could very easily have two of Swiss Poland Croatia Hungary Wales N. Ireland Portugal in the semis.

Meanwhile Italy will have to beat Spain and probably Germany to make semis.

Germany Italy Spain France and England are all on the same side!

[davidatrb]

So, for example: Croatia plays 3rd in B, E or F. How is it determined if B, E or F?

There is a table on the wiki which determines it.

As it stands Croatia play 3rd in B. If group f makes best 4 3rds then Croatia play f. If f don't make it and E (us) make top 3rds then Croatia play us.

[pineapple stu]

So, for example: Croatia plays 3rd in B, E or F. How is it determined if B, E or F?
If you look at the wiki article, it shows how the third place teams are split - basically there's a different combination for every possible combination of third place qualifiers.

[Real ale Madrid]

That was a good evening for us. Off to Lille tomorrow afternoon. Fingers Crossed. I have a feeling that Portugal are going to thump Hungary tomorrow and we'll be playing for a tilt at the hosts.

[Lionel Ritchie]

Enjoy RAM. ...and bring on the hosts.

[davidatrb]

Okay this is the day. And the last day that you will have to listen to our boring analysis of the permutations.

I think it serves the French right that they go to pains to make their draw the best - Group A winner was always set to play a 3rd placed team and then guaranteed a runner up in the quarters, they don't play a group winner until the semi. Even if they were runner up in A they had it easier than all the other runner ups who most likely got a group winner, but group A runner up got another runner up instead. With the Spain and England upsets they now have all 5 pre-tournament favourites on the same side (France, Germany, Spain, England, Italy).

Anyway ...

Scenario 1 (Likely)
So we beat Italy by a narrow margin and Portugal get at least a draw against Hungary. Then we play France, then probably England in Quarter and then Germany/Spain or Italy in the Semi and probably have Belgium/Croatia in the final. Not good - have to beat Italy, France, England, Spain, Belgium all in a row.

Scenario 2 (I think we could actually win the whole thing)
We avoid France and the bottom half of the draw. So we want Hungary to beat Portugal or we want to beat Italy 3-0 and hope Sweden beat Belgium 1-0. If the Portugal group don't make top 3rd then we play Croatia in Round of 16 and then maybe Poland in Quarter, Wales/Belgium in Semi. If we make runner up then we play winner E (maybe Hungary) then, maybe Wales, then Croatia in semi. It's conceivable that the route to the final would be as easy as Hungary, Wales, Poland or Croatia, Poland, Wales. Either way if we avoid the French section we can make the final without having to play any of the top favourites for the competition.

The Spain and England results in the last few days must have brought into focus the opportunity of picking a team not just to win, but to score goals - do you think we should be thinking that way or is it beyond us to have ambitions of making the final or scoring more than once against an uninterested team?

[Real ale Madrid]

We will be all out , ALL OUT to beat Italy B by one goal. Even if we manage to get into the top half of the draw - we would be second favorites to beat Croatia by some distance. I'd actually rather play France. Not much of note happened the last time we played them in a competitive game.

[Siberian]

Okay this is the day. And the last day that you will have to listen to our boring analysis of the permutations.

I think it serves the French right that they go to pains to make their draw the best - Group A winner was always set to play a 3rd placed team and then guaranteed a runner up in the quarters, they don't play a group winner until the semi. Even if they were runner up in A they had it easier than all the other runner ups who most likely got a group winner, but group A runner up got another runner up instead. With the Spain and England upsets they now have all 5 pre-tournament favourites on the same side (France, Germany, Spain, England, Italy).

Anyway ...

Scenario 1 (Likely)
So we beat Italy by a narrow margin and Portugal get at least a draw against Hungary. Then we play France, then probably England in Quarter and then Germany/Spain or Italy in the Semi and probably have Belgium/Croatia in the final. Not good - have to beat Italy, France, England, Spain, Belgium all in a row.

Scenario 2 (I think we could actually win the whole thing)
We avoid France and the bottom half of the draw. So we want Hungary to beat Portugal or we want to beat Italy 3-0 and hope Sweden beat Belgium 1-0. If the Portugal group don't make top 3rd then we play Croatia in Round of 16 and then maybe Poland in Quarter, Wales/Belgium in Semi. If we make runner up then we play winner E (maybe Hungary) then, maybe Wales, then Croatia in semi. It's conceivable that the route to the final would be as easy as Hungary, Wales, Poland or Croatia, Poland, Wales. Either way if we avoid the French section we can make the final without having to play any of the top favourites for the competition.

The Spain and England results in the last few days must have brought into focus the opportunity of picking a team not just to win, but to score goals - do you think we should be thinking that way or is it beyond us to have ambitions of making the final or scoring more than once against an uninterested team?

Jesus lads, some people have too much time on their hands!!! I'm not even thinking beyond this evening. Beating Italy would be a decent return on our Euros and even if we do manage that I don't expect us to go much further in the competition. And in fairness that's just being realistic. And of course the positive flip of not progressing is that we don't have to see any more clips of Irish fans making tits of themselves out there.

[legendz]

I'm happy the results in recent days has qualification in our hands. I'll take a win of any kind.

[davidatrb]

Part of me agrees that we just need to think about a win, any win, no distractions.

But the other part of me will be upset when I see Wales or Poland in the Final to know that if things just went the other way that it could possibly have been us. This is a tournament that Denmark won (without qualifying) and Greece have won. And this one in particularly looks like it is being set up for a new winner again.

Right now Croatia are the most likely team to make the final more likely than France, Germany and Spain. Poland are more likely to make the final than Italy. And Croatia are 4th favourite to win outright, ahead of both England and Italy. That's the difference it would mean for us.

[Kingdom]

Okay this is the day. And the last day that you will have to listen to our boring analysis of the permutations.

I think it serves the French right that they go to pains to make their draw the best - Group A winner was always set to play a 3rd placed team and then guaranteed a runner up in the quarters, they don't play a group winner until the semi. Even if they were runner up in A they had it easier than all the other runner ups who most likely got a group winner, but group A runner up got another runner up instead. With the Spain and England upsets they now have all 5 pre-tournament favourites on the same side (France, Germany, Spain, England, Italy).

Anyway ...

Scenario 1 (Likely)
So we beat Italy by a narrow margin and Portugal get at least a draw against Hungary. Then we play France, then probably England in Quarter and then Germany/Spain or Italy in the Semi and probably have Belgium/Croatia in the final. Not good - have to beat Italy, France, England, Spain, Belgium all in a row.

Scenario 2 (I think we could actually win the whole thing)
We avoid France and the bottom half of the draw. So we want Hungary to beat Portugal or we want to beat Italy 3-0 and hope Sweden beat Belgium 1-0. If the Portugal group don't make top 3rd then we play Croatia in Round of 16 and then maybe Poland in Quarter, Wales/Belgium in Semi. If we make runner up then we play winner E (maybe Hungary) then, maybe Wales, then Croatia in semi. It's conceivable that the route to the final would be as easy as Hungary, Wales, Poland or Croatia, Poland, Wales. Either way if we avoid the French section we can make the final without having to play any of the top favourites for the competition.

The Spain and England results in the last few days must have brought into focus the opportunity of picking a team not just to win, but to score goals - do you think we should be thinking that way or is it beyond us to have ambitions of making the final or scoring more than once against an uninterested team?

What's funnier is that, in recent history, we've recorded more wins against France, Spain, Germany, England and Italy, than we have against Hungary, Poland, Wales and Croatia.

[Stuttgart88]

I think we're a level below Wales and Poland.

[Stuttgart88]

Hmm, trying to figure that one out Kingdom! When does "recent" begin?

[Morbo]

Exactly. Doesn't mean I amn't going to go out and go the game, but I wouldn't bother wasting my energy going through these permutations but maybe thats the thing of this forum. Time to waste, to waste time.

I actually enjoy looking at the permutations, at first I wasn't sure about this 24 team format but for me it has made these last stage of games more interesting as now other groups effect your chances of qualifying.

[davidatrb]

I actually enjoy looking at the permutations, at first I wasn't sure about this 24 team format but for me it has made these last stage of games more interesting as now other groups effect your chances of qualifying.

Here's is one for you then Morbo.

Imagine that we had beaten Sweden as we should and were supposed to. Can you imagine Italy, Belgium and Ireland playing tonight all trying to avoid 1st and 3rd place...

[irishultra]

24 teams is good but the problem is you havent a clue till afterwards what it means, the stations don't really mention the significance.

[Morbo]

Here's is one for you then Morbo.

Imagine that we had beaten Sweden as we should and were supposed to. Can you imagine Italy, Belgium and Ireland playing tonight all trying to avoid 1st and 3rd place...

That would be interesting, Italy would be trying to lose and we'd be having to keep an eye on the other match in order to figure out whether we wanted to win, lose or draw. Likewise Belgium would be watching our match to decide if they want to win or not, a win would get them second so long as Ireland don't get a narrow win, but if Ireland did take the lead then Belgium would have to let Sweden equalise and then we are kind of stuck if the game stayed tied with Belgium/Sweden as we can only finish 1st or 3rd not 2nd.

Best bet for Ireland would probably be to take a big lead against Italy like 4-0, this would force Belgium to try and win the game to get 2nd instead of 3rd and then we'd have to score a very late OG's to reduce the lead to 3 and ensure Belgium get caught top of a 3 way 6 points tie. Would be pretty entertaining I reckon.

[legendz]

I actually enjoy looking at the permutations, at first I wasn't sure about this 24 team format but for me it has made these last stage of games more interesting as now other groups effect your chances of qualifying.

I like the quirkiness of the format. It's unpredictable and more a reflection of the world we live in. I'm enjoying the euro's more than the World Cup.