European Championships - France 2016

[geysir]

33% chance = 2/1 in betting parlance, no?

2/1 against means one chance in three positive, two chances in three negative :)

50% chance = evens
Yep, 2/1 means a 33% chance of winning, so De Lorean would not be offering 3/1 on Ireland winning and Tricky would be hesitating.

[DeLorean]

De Lorean would not be offering 3/1 on Ireland winning

You conjured that 3/1 figure out of thin air.

[geysir]

I've said nothing about betting odds, one doesn't necessarily translate to the other, well not in the way you have presented it anyway. 3/1 would be generous for an Ireland victory, but that has zero to do with what I said. My logic is that ourselves and Sweden are fairly evenly matched, they may be slightly better because of their one world class player. There are three possible outcomes in the game: Ireland win 33.33%, draw 33.33%, Sweden win 33.33%. That would be assuming we are completely even in terms of our chances.
Mathematically correct, but chances in football odds do not follow such logic, they are affected by a myriad of factors.


Yes but that's just a nonsense scenario where you have removed a draw as a possibility to justify your point. A draw is a huge possibility. Just because both teams want to win doesn't mean that one of them will. The last thing either will want is a defeat.
I did not remove the possibility of a draw, I lessened the value of that possibility.
I lessened its value because my football opinions (being better than my maths) at this time do not agree that a draw is a huge possibility, far from it.
I would however concur that a draw would be a huge possibility in other circumstances


No it doesn't. I think we have a one in three chance because they are two evenly matched teams with three possible outcomes. I think we have (at best) a 2/3 chance of not losing the match, which sounds much better. Sweden only have a 1/3 chance of winning too so how is my opinion of them inflated and my opinion of us very low?

You are correct and that means you have a less low opinion of our chances of beating Sweden and a less inflated opinion of their chances of beating us, than I first thought.

[DeLorean]

I did not remove the possibility of a draw, I lessened the value of that possibility.

So how do we have a 50% chance? Unless you are saying that we are better than Sweden, the other 50% must be made up of a potential Sweden victory and a draw, seeing as you haven't removed it as a possibility.


I lessened its value because my football opinions (being better than my maths) at this time do not agree that a draw is a huge possibility, far from it.
I would however concur that a draw would be a huge possibility in other circumstances

Just one fairly recent example I can think of is Iran v Nigeria in their opening game at the WC. With Bosnia and Argentina being the other teams in the group I'm sure both would have sighted that as a game they really needed to win. They played out a 0-0 borefest. As it turned out, Nigeria beat Bosnia in their next game anyway but you get the point. Not losing will be the priority, I'd be surprised if MON doesn't mention that himself. Do you really see us going gung-ho?

[CraftyToePoke]

Ah look what I have started, all I wanted was to shine a gentle light of positive possibility and now look at us lunatics :)

[DeLorean]

I'm not going unless I know exactly what chance we have! (To the nearest decimal point obviously)

[DeLorean]

3 points might well be enough to get through.

Just having a look at the three times the same format applied in the World Cup (i.e. 1986-1994).

It's interesting that no third placed team ever qualified with just one win (and two defeats). Of course, this was at a time when there were only two points on offer for a win.

If the current criteria applied Hungary would have made the knock-out stage in 198 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_FIFA_World_Cup#Ranking_of_third-placed_teams)6 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_FIFA_World_Cup#Ranking_of_third-placed_teams) with their sole victory, as it would have bettered Bulgaria and Uruguay's two draws and a defeat.

Austria and Scotland missed out in 1990 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_FIFA_World_Cup#Ranking_of_third-placed_teams), both recording one win and two defeats. This was bettered by the third placed teams in all of the other groups. Under the current criteria of three points for a win, they would have still been knocked out, on goal difference as they would have been level on points with Netherlands, who drew their three matches (like ourselves).

Three points for a win was in place for the 1994 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_FIFA_World_Cup#Ranking_of_third-placed_teams) competition, where Russia missed out having recorded one win and two defeats. Again, no team went through win just one win and nothing else.

I reckon there's a bigger chance we'll be eliminated with just one win than go through. GD could be crucial too.

[SkStu]

So how do we have a 50% chance? Unless you are saying that we are better than Sweden, the other 50% must be made up of a potential Sweden victory and a draw, seeing as you haven't removed it as a possibility.



Just one fairly recent example I can think of is Iran v Nigeria in their opening game at the WC. With Bosnia and Argentina being the other teams in the group I'm sure both would have sighted that as a game they really needed to win. They played out a 0-0 borefest. As it turned out, Nigeria beat Bosnia in their next game anyway but you get the point. Not losing will be the priority, I'd be surprised if MON doesn't mention that himself. Do you really see us going gung-ho?

http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/577/952/a7b.gif

[Crosby87]

AIB taking heat for loaning Irish fans money to make it to Euro 16. Tricky borrowed at 22.5%.

http://www.independent.ie/business/aib-losing-run-of-itself-offering-loans-of-30000-for-fans-to-go-to-euro-2016-34294987.html

[BonnieShels]

They haven't loaned any money at all. They are just offering loans. Like a bank does. God I hate the fupping Indo. I also hate AIB, but the Indo more right now.

[tricky_colour]

If you were prepared to offer 3/1 on Ireland beating Sweden, then I'd wager you would be subject to an avalanche of offers, even Tricky might be tempted to break his bank (60 cents).
6/4 or 5/4 would be more accurate. Both teams know a draw is féck all use and both teams will be targetting 3 points and will not settle for a point. And in that scenario I'd say we have a 50% chance of beating Sweden. If you only think we have a 1/3 chance of beating Sweden, that equates to having a very low opinion of our team or/and inflated opinion of Sweden. 3 points might well be enough to get through. Getting a point either from Italy or Belgium is something that can happen in gritty circumstances.

I'd certainly take 3-1 if it was on offer, but as has been said 33% would be 2-1, indeed that is what you can get in the early betting.

Should be some good betting opportunities for me, 125-1 for us to win the tournament is tempting.

Belgium are about 11-1, Italy 18-1, Sweden about 100-1

Should be some interesting betting opportunities coming up, particularly in wins against Belgium and Italy which are entirely possible imo. In fact I think wins there could more likely than v Sweden.

[tricky_colour]

AIB taking heat for loaning Irish fans money to make it to Euro 16. Tricky borrowed at 22.5%.

http://www.independent.ie/business/aib-losing-run-of-itself-offering-loans-of-30000-for-fans-to-go-to-euro-2016-34294987.html

I bet if the bank directors were lending their own money they would be a bit more cautious.

Still I have my £30,000, I just hope the tax payer enjoys paying it off :)

[pineapple stu]

They haven't loaned any money at all. They are just offering loans. Like a bank does. God I hate the fupping Indo. I also hate AIB, but the Indo more right now.
The Indo just says they're offering loans though?

But €30k to go to the Euros has to include a bit extra for a nice new couch or another holiday or something - the kind of crap that got the country in the mess it's in in the first place.

Anyone taking up anywhere near the full amount should be shot.

[BonnieShels]

The Indo just says they're offering loans though?

But €30k to go to the Euros has to include a bit extra for a nice new couch or another holiday or something - the kind of crap that got the country in the mess it's in in the first place.

Anyone taking up anywhere near the full amount should be shot.

Are they offering Euros specific loans or is there a bloody chance that the personal loan limit is 30k and a trip to the Euros is one of a multitude of things to spend the cashmoney on?

[pineapple stu]

Marketed as a loan for Euro 2016 anyway (http://personal.aib.ie/our-products/loans/euro-2016-loan).

[Bungle]

Belgium are on paper an outstanding team. They have yet to really deliver, so I would not put them in the same bracket as Germany or Spain. Certainly, while we could have got kinder 1st seeds, we could have got worse draws too. We will give them a game and I'd be reasonably hopeful that we will take points off them.

Italy are always Italy. They have one of the greatest goalkeepers of all time, a rock solid defence, a top class midfield and while they seem to lack a top class striker, with that core, you should go far. I do think that while they could win the tournament, they are also capable of having a stinker like the past two world cups. We can definitely get points off them.

Sweden are highly organised and have a world class player in Zlatan. However, they are very average and pound for pound I think we are the better team. We certainly should target 3 points, although I think they will feel the same way.

I foresee this group being top heavy with draws a bit like our WC90 group.

[Crosby87]

Who would Italy be if not Italy Bungle? Also the Goalie is kind of a Buffoon isn't he? That's what I heard anyway.

[CityRebel]

Once you've chartered the private jet and paid for the hotels you won't have much change from €30k, certainly not enough for a pre-match meal at Pierre Gagnaire.

[Stuttgart88]

Agree with Bungle.

[osarusan]

Belgium are on paper an outstanding team. They have yet to really deliver, so I would not put them in the same bracket as Germany or Spain. Certainly, while we could have got kinder 1st seeds, we could have got worse draws too. We will give them a game and I'd be reasonably hopeful that we will take points off them.


Agree with this. If Belgium could play in a way that maximises the quality of all their star players, they'd be incredible, but so far they have been less than the sum of their parts.



Italy are always Italy. They have one of the greatest goalkeepers of all time, a rock solid defence, a top class midfield and while they seem to lack a top class striker, with that core, you should go far. I do think that while they could win the tournament, they are also capable of having a stinker like the past two world cups. We can definitely get points off them.

I think they will be too good for us.



Sweden are highly organised and have a world class player in Zlatan. However, they are very average and pound for pound I think we are the better team. We certainly should target 3 points, although I think they will feel the same way.

I think that Sweden are alright, but not much more than that. 2 draws and two defeats against the teams that finished above them in the group. I agree that we'll be targeting each other for a win.


I don't see us getting out of the group though.

[Stuttgart88]

The number of players we have playing at bigger clubs seems to be falling but we do seem to have a fair few players playing really well right now and two or three good options to replace established players in the summer.

Most of the squad picks itself but at least two good keepers will be disappointed. Personally I think Given and Forde should miss out, Henderson too.

Elliott, Brady, Wes, Coleman, Long and Walters are playing very well. Hendrick and Keogh too, albeit at a lower level.

Others like Whelan (key part of a team on a great run), McCarthy, Meyler, Murphy, McClean, JOSH...are playing well enough. Maybe Whelan deserves to be in the higher category.

Judge and Arter both could really refresh the squad and even starting XI. I'm really excited by those two. McGeady and Gibson are both on very shaky ground. Stephen Quinn might be in trouble too.

Worries might be Wilson, Christie, Clark, Randolph, Ward, but teams like us will always have a few players not getting good first team action. Has Euro 2016 come a year too late for JOSH?

Duffy has an outside chance but could feature a lot in future squads. Forrester and John Egan could join him as might a couple of others below the EPL.

I think we're in better shape than 4 years ago even though null points might still be the outcome. I'm confident / hopeful enough though.

[Crosby87]

Do you think Robbie Keane is out or in Stutts?

[DeLorean]

I agree with the general optimism and most of the main points. Just a couple of things I wouldn't be sure about or slightly disagree-


Elliott, Brady, Wes, Coleman, Long and Walters are playing very well. Hendrick and Keogh too, albeit at a lower level.

Others like Whelan (key part of a team on a great run), McCarthy, Meyler, Murphy, McClean, JOSH...are playing well enough. Maybe Whelan deserves to be in the higher category.

I'm not sure Coleman is playing very well. Everton are conceding a crazy amount of goals and he seems to have lost his potency going forward, goals and assists seem to be thin on the ground this season. Hendrick isn't in great form either but hopefully the goal the other night will be a bit of a confidence booster. I think McClean deserves to be in the higher category without question, he has really hit the ground running.


Worries might be Wilson, Christie, Clark, Randolph, Ward, but teams like us will always have a few players not getting good first team action.

Christie's been an ever present since September and is playing very well.


Has Euro 2016 come a year too late for JOSH?

I really hope not, we could really do with him I think despite doing okay without against B&H.


Duffy has an outside chance but could feature a lot in future squads. Forrester and John Egan could join him as might a couple of others below the EPL.

Hoban can't be too far off a return either, hopefully in time for a decent loan move in January.

[SkStu]

Completely agree regarding Coleman. Watch Everton regularly and he just is not the same dynamic attacker and defender that he had been over the last few seasons, peaking in 13/14 if you ask me.

Really want to see MON take a good look at Arter, Judge and Duffy. Wasn't aware of Duffys excellence this season until I saw the thread update.

I wonder if any approaches from/to Irish potentials will occur? Would love to see a Bamford or Redmond get added to our contingent (not necessarily travel to France mind!).

[DannyInvincible]

Has Coleman's potency in attack suffered due to Baines' absence on the other side?

McGeady and Gibson really need to be considering moves - either loans until the season's end or permanent transfers - in January.

[tetsujin1979]

Didn't realise it until just now, McGeady's made more appearances for Ireland than Everton this season :(

[Crosby87]

Happy bread and butter day chaps.

The42 picks the early starting XI.
http://www.the42.ie/ireland-euro-2016-2-2484968-Jan2016/

[Deckydee]

Ticket News! :cool:


This is a good one. Cannot say I am surprised after they sent +/- 300 fans to the World Cup. It looks like we are going to have all the tickets for the match against Belgium.

http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/8356/EK-Voetbal/article/detail/2578584/2016/01/08/EK-ticketverkoop-Rode-Duivels-loopt-voor-geen-meter.dhtml

Basically the article says that even though there are 10 days to go to the closing of the lottery scheme, less than 50% of the Belgian supporters have registered for the available tickets. Here is another version from a different site:


http://www.nieuwsblad.be/sportwereld/cnt/dmf20160107_02055502#modalbox-deeplink

This actually mentions the numbers, it says that the Belgian football federation has 19,000 tickets available for all 3 group matches but only 9,000 Belgians have registered for the lottery, leaving a pretty shocking 10,000 tickets still available!! As we know well, just because you have registred (and if you win) does not mean you must buy the tickets, you have the opportunity to buy them.

http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/16076/De-Rode-Duivels/article/detail/2579932/2016/01/09/Extra-reclame-loont-plots-wel-stormloop-naar-EK-tickets.dhtml

This article says things have improved since they first announced there was no interest (article above) it does say that the reason for the lack of interest is based on the terror attacks.

http://www.gva.be/cnt/dmf20160108_02055550/ek-tickets-rode-duivels-raken-niet-verkocht

This article is pretty much the same as the others, but mentions something the others have not done and that is that if the available tickets are not purchased as of 18th of Jan, the available tickets will be sent to the competitors! It also mentions that the 'complex ordering system' has a lot to do with it. (Hoe kan dat? Mogelijk speelt het complexe aankoopsysteem mee)

It seems becoming the number 1 in the world has not changed anything. This reminds me of the 'dark days' of Belgian football (2003-2011) when the website above (HLN) used to give free tickets away with 5 purchases of their paper in order to entice the supporters to come and support. In fact it happened more than once that the flemish sports channel (Sporza) did not bother to show Belgian friendly matches (and even once a qualifier) due to lack of interest from the Belgian public.

In Finishing,

Dear Belgium, Please send the available tickets to:

Football Association of Ireland,
National Sports Campus,
Abbotstown,
Dublin 15.

[zero]

Ticket News! :cool:
As we know well, just because you have registred (and if you win) does not mean you must buy the tickets, you have the opportunity to buy them.


i don't believe this is correct. according to the uefa site faq:

http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/ticketing/faq/index.html



Do I have to buy all the tickets I apply for?
If you are successful in the random draw you will have to pay for all tickets awarded to you. Please note that at the end of the application phase on Friday 10th July 2015, 20:16 CET the ticket portal will be closed. At this stage you will still be able to check the summary of your application but you will no longer be able to make any changes to the number of tickets you have applied for. You will find all the necessary further information in your confirmation email.


however perhaps it's possible to cancel up to a certain point? certainly there is a resale platform so buying them now is lowish risk.

[Deckydee]

i don't believe this is correct. according to the uefa site faq:

http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/ticketing/faq/index.html

Thanks for clearing that up! I was under the impression that you could register and then if you 'won' then you could then purchase if you wanted and if not the tickets were made available to other people. Oh well! Don't mind to be honest, will go to any matches I get tickets for.

[backstothewall]

In Finishing,

Dear Belgium, Please send the available tickets to:

Football Association of Ireland,
National Sports Campus,
Abbotstown,
Dublin 15.

Are you insane? Those idiots? Send them to the GAA. That way we all have that friend of our uncle who can lay his hands on them

[Crosby87]

The Ireland Sticker collection is out! These prove great gifts for your wedding anniversary, child's birthday or Easter uprising parties. The Ireland Euro Championships sticker collection will be worth oodles of money years from now, especially if the team wins the tournament. Noted company Panini, who also make grilled sandwiches, are releasing said stickers. Many see these stickers not only as a hobby, but as an investment. Lets all get these stickers now.
http://www.licensing.biz/news/read/panini-launches-republic-of-ireland-sticker-collection/043240

[gunnerbar]

Lads,

Just going to book tickets for the bro and me for the Sweden game.

Can I ask

1) Can each of us apply for 2 tickets each - We have 7 ST holders under his name.

and

2) What is the story with the Follow Your Team tickets - are they transferable if we wanted to give to other people.

Thinking of applying for 2 Sweden tickets and 2 FYT between the 2 of us.

Thanks,

Gunnerbar

[Deckydee]

275,000???

In my best Christopher Walken accent.................WOW!

http://irishpost.co.uk/hundreds-of-thousands-set-to-miss-out-on-ireland-tickets-to-euro-2016/

[colonelwest]

Bandwagoners soon to be in uproar after joe.ie posted an article saying debit cards might not work for payments for ticket applications. Good enough for them.

[tetsujin1979]

If you're getting upset by an article on joe.ie, you've got bigger problems

[Fixer82]

Great news. Am getting over to Bordeaux for the Belgium game. Will have great craic regardless but will be a bit gutted if I can't get a ticket. Will find out in February when they announce the lucky ticket winners

[DannyInvincible]

UEFA confirmed today that debit cards will be processed OK, just like credit cards: http://www.thesun.ie/irishsol/homepage/news/6877516/Uefa-Irish-debit-card-users-will-not-be-treated-any-differently-in-Euro-2016-tickets-bid.html


IRISH fans who have applied for Euro 2016 tickets using debit cards will not be excluded from the Uefa draw, the Irish Sun has learned.

Reports earlier today quoted Europe’s footballing body declaring that only applications made using credit cards were guaranteed to be accepted.

However, the Irish Sun understands that while Uefa officially only accepts credit card applications, those made using debit card details will not be treated any differently.

A Uefa source said: “Only some countries, including Ireland, actually use debit cards. They don’t exist in many other countries in Europe.

“That is why it is Uefa policy to use credit cards, as they are universal.

“However, the debit cards work as long as they have sufficient funds, so there should not be any issue.

“So there is no cause for alarm.”

The Uefa payment system accepted debit payments from an unknown number of Irish fans ahead of the January 18 deadline.

In an official statement this afternoon, Uefa told the Irish Sun: “Payment can still work with debit cards.

“However, the payment process is only guaranteed with a credit card and if the amount due can be debited, provided the card has sufficient funds on it.

“We have successfully used exactly the same principle during the general ticket sales phase in June/July 2015 without having any issues.”

[colonelwest]

If you're getting upset by an article on joe.ie, you've got bigger problems

Sure that goes hand in hand with being a bandwagoner, where else are they supposed to get their opinions from?

[tetsujin1979]

Probably balls.ie.
I've said before I despise these sites, their entire business model is built around the share buttons on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, etc. Come up with some original content and then you'll have some legitimacy.
I've actually a gnawing suspicion that there's going to be a proportion of the traveling support who are there just to get a photo/video on to these sites.

[colonelwest]

Aye, there'll be plenty of those over for that reason and the "craic", or in other words just on the lash. Most haven't and not to be seen in Landsdowne anytime soon! The buzzfeedification, (if that's a term!) of online "journalism" over the last couple of years with the clickbait, plagiarism of content and general rubbish that seems to have been written by 13 year old doing first year English creative writing is a pet peeve of mine!

[Fixer82]

Anyone see the recent post on Balls.ie about Carlsey working for the English F.A.?
Mentioned the future curtailing of recruitment of English born players like O'Leary and Houghton.
Terrible 'journalism'

[DeLorean]

Yeah it's being discussed at bit here- (http://foot.ie/threads/119079-Potentially-eligible-players-thread?p=1856021&viewfull=1#post1856021)

[Deckydee]

OFFICIAL :)

Ticket winners are being announced!! - Italian friend of mine has received a mail that he has won 4 tickets to the Ireland vs Italy match. Expect delay for 275,000 fans ;)

[BonnieShels]

Did they take the cashmoney today for his tickets?

[Deckydee]

Did they take the cashmoney today for his tickets?

Dont know to be honest. From what they said in their mails, they take the money (out of your account) straight away

[Junior]

Think they take out a few days before you even receive the emails. You'll know by your credit card balance/transactions before you hear directly from uefa. If successful of course!

[Crosby87]

Genteel Fota Island the perfect place for the team to prepare for Euros, insists many.

http://www.eveningecho.ie/sport/irish-soccer-squad-to-train-in-fota-before-heading-to-the-euros/1823486/

[Stuttgart88]

No, not another bloody island.

[Deckydee]

Just came across this by accident. Apparently the Belgians think the are playing Northern Ireland. Oh dear: https://twitter.com/Fanclub1895/status/687302785793179648