Discussion on a United or re-partitioned Ireland

[NeverFeltBetter]

And for those of a Nationalist persuasion: would you concede the loss of the tricolour, for a United Ireland?

Sure. It's a piece of cloth, and nothing worth delaying unification over if such a process was agreed upon by both sides of the border.

In theory, the tricolor should be perfect as an All-Ireland flag, considering what the colours are actually supposed to represent. But it can't be separated from its identity as a symbol of the Republic. The Harp with a green background might be a good option.

[BonnieShels]

Paddy's Saltire for me.

Can't imagine people will be too enamoured with a Leinster symbol over the whole State. :)

[Gather round]

https://i.imgur.com/PY2plD8.jpg

[Charlie Darwin]

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hAGb3hKhrKM/UA_YsvL4N-I/AAAAAAAAAKI/PhUxVl7ITME/s1600/irish_english.jpg

[Gather round]

https://i.imgur.com/g8MK7XX.jpg

[osarusan]

https://i.imgur.com/4k5cWbm.jpg

[BonnieShels]

https://i.imgur.com/PY2plD8.jpg

What would that monstrosity achieve?

Four Provinces flag and be done with it!

[NeverFeltBetter]

Four province flag? I'm not a fan of a flag that needs multiple sentences to explain.

[backstothewall]

I'd sacrifice a kidney for a united Ireland. Would I give up the tricolour? In a heartbeat

What about this

2618

[Wolfman]

https://i.imgur.com/g8MK7XX.jpg


WTF??

[DannyInvincible]

An interesting video here from 2014 where Arlene Foster, in talking up the benefits of devolution at a time of political difficulty, states (or perhaps warns even) unequivocally that "direct rule" would actually entail joint authority:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zem9RHxo9bs

That's not what the DUP have been saying of late (https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/poll-do-you-support-idea-of-joint-authority-for-northern-ireland-36104715.html); lately, the DUP have threatened to pull the plug on their confidence-and-supply arrangement with the Tories if the Tories were to grant Dublin greater say.

[DannyInvincible]

The acknowledgement by all parties concerned - including the DUP - of the necessity to prioritise the all-island economy in the Brexit talks is a validation of the logic behind the economic argument for Irish unity. To the best of my knowledge, nobody campaigned for a hard border over the past few weeks, so can it be assumed we're all economic united Irelanders now?

Varadkar also said yesterday: "There will be no hard border on the island and you will never again be left behind by an Irish government."

That's an interesting and heartening statement of intent from a Blueshirt. It is also an implicit but welcome acknowledgement that the south has previously left northern nationalists behind and of the unsatisfactory nature of this. The mood is certainly changing and it's very promising for unity proponents.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Fianna Fail touted earlier this year that they were putting together a white paper on how to get to a United Ireland. Whatever happened to that idea?

[BonnieShels]

Wow!

Fermanagh elected to stay in Ulster. The more you know!


https://www.facebook.com/MeanwhileinIrelandOFFICIAL/videos/916297035211733/

[DannyInvincible]

Wow!

Fermanagh elected to stay in Ulster. The more you know!


https://www.facebook.com/MeanwhileinIrelandOFFICIAL/videos/916297035211733/

That's borderline parody. Other selected gems of nonsense:


"[The border] was created in 1922 when Ireland became a Free State and Ulster remained British."

"This crow's foot on the bridge [in Pettigo] marks the exact spot where I can step out of Britain and into the Irish Republic."

"That meant that the people of Pettigo suddenly found themselves split by an international border. On that side [Fermanagh], they were British in largely-Protestant Ulster and on this side [Donegal, which is also in Ulster], Irish, in the largely-Catholic Free State of Éire."

"True enough, a few Protestants headed back over the border from this side into Britain."

:rolleyes:

The claim that Fermanagh elected to stay in the UK is ridiculous. Fermanagh's county council actually expressed the exact opposite. They refused to recognise partition and pledged allegiance to Dáil Eireann, but their protest and voice was quickly suppressed by the northern authorities: https://itsapoliticalworld.wordpress.com/2013/10/08/the-suppression-of-nationalist-republican-councils-in-the-six-counties/


"Fermanagh CC passed the following motion on 21st December 1921;


'We, the County Council of Fermanagh, in view of the expressed desire of a large majority of people in this country, do not recognize the partition parliament in Belfast and do hereby direct our secretary to hold no further communications with either Belfast or British local governments, and we pledge our allegiance to Dáil Eireann.'

The RIC seized their offices, sacked officials and the County Council was dissolved and replaced by Commissioners. Armagh, Keady and Newry Urban Councils, Downpatrick Town Commissioners, Cookstown, Downpatrick, Kilkeel, Lisnaskea, Strabane, Magherafelt, and Newry 1 & 2 Rural Councils as well as some Boards of Poor Law Guardians were all similarly dissolved and replaced by commissioners by April 1922. Derry remained.

To permanently deal with the problem, for the following local elections, PR was abolished, and all councilors were obliged to swear an oath to the crown. Our friend Dawson Bates then appointed Sir John Leech as the man to redraw boundaries, which he did at a rapid pace often giving locals only one week to make submissions – nationalists tended to boycott this absurdity. The plan worked excellently – after the 1924 local elections only 2 of the eighty councils were nationalist. Gerrymandering went on, Armagh Urban Council (Nationalist) was dissolved in 1934 and was only set back up again in 1946 with new wards and a unionist majority. Over these years Derry was re-jigged on a number of occasions."

[BonnieShels]

It's a borderline parody!

[DannyInvincible]

Further interesting reading here from David McWilliams on northern demographics, the disparity between the stagnant northern and vibrant southern economies in Ireland and what all this could mean for the survival of the northern statelet: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2017/12/05/northern-ireland-and-the-trip-advisor-index-of-economic-vibrancy

Another article (in the unionist Belfast Telegraph) forecasting economic gloom for the north: https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/republic-of-ireland-economy-set-to-accelerate-further-ahead-of-northern-ireland-36391516.html


The increasingly faster expansion of the economy in the Republic - three times that of Northern Ireland - could advance further amid predictions of slow job creation here over the next two years, new research has shown.

EY's Economic Eye is forecasting 4.9% growth in the Republic this year, compared with just 1.4% in Northern Ireland. And the economy here is also predicted to see GDP growth of just 1.1% in 2018.

The jobs market is also predicted to expand at a much slower level in Northern Ireland, with just 5,800 new posts created here by 2020.

Neil Gibson, chief economist with EY in Ireland, said the real concern for Northern Ireland is an increased pressure on consumers and their incomes. "The real story is if we are looking at pay rises either side of 2% across the island, that's a pay cut in Northern Ireland but a rise in the Republic.

[DannyInvincible]

'Prominent nationalists ask taoiseach to protect northern citizens' rights': https://www.irishnews.com/news/brexit/2017/12/11/news/prominent-nationalists-ask-taoiseach-to-protect-northern-citizens-rights-1207622/


INFLUENTIAL figures within northern nationalism – including the GAA – have penned an open letter to Taoiseach Leo Varadkar urging him to act to protect the rights of Irish citizens in the north. Signatories include former All-Ireland-winning Tyrone captain Peter Canavan as well as Republic of Ireland soccer international James McClean and boxers Paddy Barnes and Michael Conlon.

Prominent lawyers, business leaders, and figures from academia, the community, education and sports sectors have also signed the unprecedented open letter carried in The Irish News today. They call on the Irish government, as a co-guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement, to use its influence to end the political crisis. They outline how the stalled Stormont process and Brexit have led to a sense of abandonment not felt since the country was partitioned.

[Charlie Darwin]

Fianna Fail touted earlier this year that they were putting together a white paper on how to get to a United Ireland. Whatever happened to that idea?
They could only find brown paper.

[BonnieShels]

Came across this today during a bout of procrastination:

Modelling Irish Unification by KL Consulting, Vancouver, BC

http://www.klconsult.ca/irish-unification-modeling-.pdf

[DannyInvincible]

Came across this today during a bout of procrastination:

Modelling Irish Unification by KL Consulting, Vancouver, BC

http://www.klconsult.ca/irish-unification-modeling-.pdf

That study has been mentioned a few times in this thread already. :)

i) https://foot.ie/threads/178393-Discussion-on-a-United-or-re-partitioned-Ireland?p=1879265&viewfull=1#post1879265
ii) https://foot.ie/threads/178393-Discussion-on-a-United-or-re-partitioned-Ireland/page9?p=1904784#post1904784
ii) https://foot.ie/threads/178393-Discussion-on-a-United-or-re-partitioned-Ireland?p=1912847&viewfull=1#post1912847

I twice misattributed it to Michael Burke rather than Professor Kurt Huebner, however.

[DannyInvincible]

'Poll records another jump in support for Irish Unity': https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/12/28/poll-records-another-jump-in-support-for-irish-unity/


A new poll out today conducted by Ireland Thinks for the Irish Daily Mail has recorded a jump in support in voters in the South for Irish Unity.

Ireland Thinks interviewed a random sample of 1,144 adults aged 18+ by telephone between Thursday 14th December and Friday 22nd December 2017. This group carried out a similar poll in March this year.

Respondents were asked the following question;


If it cost the Irish government €9 billion per annum for Northern Ireland to unite with the Republic of Ireland, how would you vote in relation to a referendum on a United Ireland?

In favour-60% (+10% since March)

Against-40% (-10% since March)

[BonnieShels]

That study has been mentioned a few times in this thread already. :)

i) https://foot.ie/threads/178393-Discussion-on-a-United-or-re-partitioned-Ireland?p=1879265&viewfull=1#post1879265
ii) https://foot.ie/threads/178393-Discussion-on-a-United-or-re-partitioned-Ireland/page9?p=1904784#post1904784
ii) https://foot.ie/threads/178393-Discussion-on-a-United-or-re-partitioned-Ireland?p=1912847&viewfull=1#post1912847

I twice misattributed it to Michael Burke rather than Professor Kurt Huebner, however.

Aye, but there's the link again!

---

Only 9 billion? A steal!

[DannyInvincible]

Kevin Meagher has another piece in the Huffington Post today. I'm enjoying his contributions to the debate.

'A United Ireland Is Five Years Away. We Need To Start Planning For It Now': http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/northern-ireland_uk_5a4d0d92e4b0df0de8b06eaf

[Gather round]

Kevin Meagher has another piece in the Huffington Post today. I'm enjoying his contributions to the debate.

'A United Ireland Is Five Years Away. We Need To Start Planning For It Now': http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/northern-ireland_uk_5a4d0d92e4b0df0de8b06eaf

I grudgingly admire his confidence. 5 years is a very short span to achieve a UI given that there's been effective stasis for nearly 100. He's not really debating though- it's a journalist's polemic that he's unlikely ever to have to justify. If there isn't full success by 2023 he can just laugh it off and kick further into the long grass.

There's quite likely to be no NIA election in 2022- the mothballs will be long gone by then. The only significant polls by then will be for Westminster. Nationalism won't get 50% or even 45% (less than 42% last year remember) . So no Referendum (which in any case Varadkar has strongly hinted there should be a 65% or 70% threshold for). No doubt you'll quote the 1998 Deal but it was always mainly about a Nationalist- Unionist settlement and that's over. Talking of which where stand you on the McElduff row- I'm pretty sure he was malicious not just a dimwit

The idea that a Labour govt would make much difference is fanciful. Corbyn isn't up to understanding the details of Brexit, can't see him forcing an end to the border.

A UI is a bit like Scotland qualifying for a major tournament. May well happen at some point just not anytime soon. What odds is your bookie giving KM's bold boast?

[Charlie Darwin]

I grudgingly admire your confidence that Varadkar will still be in office in five years time.

[Gather round]

I grudgingly admire your confidence that Varadkar will still be in office in five years time

I didn't suggest nor imply that he would be. The next FF Taoiseach (should s/he be in charge then) will face the same pressure and I guess will react in much the same way. Even an unlikely SF Taoiseach won't just nod through a UI

[The Fly]

I grudgingly admire his confidence. 5 years is a very short span to achieve a UI given that there's been effective stasis for nearly 100. He's not really debating though- it's a journalist's polemic that he's unlikely ever to have to justify. If there isn't full success by 2023 he can just laugh it off and kick further into the long grass.

I know your post is to Danny GR, but I'll offer a response anyway...

I think the earliest a so-called border poll is likely to be called is 2023. The result of the next census will have been published and we should have seen the whites of Brexit's eyes by then.



There's quite likely to be no NIA election in 2022- the mothballs will be long gone by then. The only significant polls by then will be for Westminster. Nationalism won't get 50% or even 45% (less than 42% last year remember) . So no Referendum (which in any case Varadkar has strongly hinted there should be a 65% or 70% threshold for).

What he expressed was merely his desire to see such an endorsement for a united Ireland in the North; in other words the more people that vote for it the better. You're grasping at straws if you think that sensible wish was code for having some sort of legal threshold or supermajority tied to the referendum before it could pass; which, as we all know, is code for a unionist veto. ;)

It's 50% +1. There are no ifs, ands or buts about it.


No doubt you'll quote the 1998 Deal but it was always mainly about a Nationalist- Unionist settlement and that's over.

I'm sensing more repartition talk.


Talking of which where stand you on the McElduff row- I'm pretty sure he was malicious not just a dimwit

I'm inclined to think he meant it too. If it was a mistake it contained the most extraordinary set of coincidences - like a kind of social media GUBU. When the furore arose McElduff could have defused it by not only apologising for any hurt or offence caused but, more importantly, by calling the Kingsmill massacre exactly what it was; cold-blooded, sectarian mass murder. Given that he didn't his apology became mostly worthless and this is what his defenders miss.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Not a chance he didn't mean it. He fancies himself a bit of a stand-up comedian as I understand, just a really crap one who doesn't understand the entire planet can see what's on your Twitter feed.

[Wolfman]

There's quite likely to be no NIA election in 2022- the mothballs will be long gone by then. The only significant polls by then will be for Westminster. Nationalism won't get 50% or even 45% (less than 42% last year remember) . So no Referendum (which in any case Varadkar has strongly hinted there should be a 65% or 70% threshold for). No doubt you'll quote the 1998 Deal but it was always mainly about a Nationalist- Unionist settlement and that's over. Talking of which where stand you on the McElduff row- I'm pretty sure he was malicious not just a dimwit

The idea that a Labour govt would make much difference is fanciful. Corbyn isn't up to understanding the details of Brexit, can't see him forcing an end to the border.

A UI is a bit like Scotland qualifying for a major tournament. May well happen at some point just not anytime soon.

More predictable, circular guff.

A UI will happen when the Brits ditch the North. The latter will have nowhere else to go.
And I'd expect a significant financial sweetener to do so.

Personally, I'd send in the UN/EU Army(?) to deal with some of the more extreme unionists.

[backstothewall]

Personally, I'd send in the UN/EU Army(?) to deal with some of the more extreme unionists.

I doubt there would be any need whatsoever. The PSNI are more than capable of handling such a situation.

[Wolfman]

Really?
Don't forget hard core loyalists never 'decommissioned'...
Think the likely violent response to a British withdrawal is seriously underestimated.

[Gather round]

Afternoon Fly- any and (almost) all responses welcome

1 I agree Brexit is a huge game-changer and may well result in a UI. I just don't see it happening as quickly as Meagher predicts and DI hopes. I doubt the next Census will up the Nationalist vote to anywhere near 50%

2 How am I grasping at straws? I've repeatedly said a UI is possible. Nor am I suggesting any code as you call it. It would make sense (from LV's POV) for there to be likely support of well over 50% before welcoming a Referendum in NI. We've seen over here what a cluster**** the Brexit Ref was and how poisonous the atmosphere has become since

3 Why must the UI poll be on the terms you demand? It's based on a 20 year old deal that has clearly failed

4 Again, I used no code. If there isn't widespread support (including from some Unionists) there's less likely to be a formal poll. When politics is dominated by 2 blocs both with 45%-ish support, they both have a veto of sorts

5 I wasn't thinking of any repartition- that idea is probably a dead duck now ;)

6 I thought the boys were very dignified on the View last week as it goes. BME resigning as MP should calm things a bit. I doubt SF will lose the by-election...

[The Fly]

Afternoon Fly- any and (almost) all responses welcome

Which points of mine aren't welcome, or are you referring to a certain howling poster from County Louth? ;)


1 I agree Brexit is a huge game-changer and may well result in a UI. I just don't see it happening as quickly as Meagher predicts and DI hopes. I doubt the next Census will up the Nationalist vote to anywhere near 50%



2 How am I grasping at straws? I've repeatedly said a UI is possible. Nor am I suggesting any code as you call it. It would make sense (from LV's POV) for there to be likely support of well over 50% before welcoming a Referendum in NI. We've seen over here what a cluster**** the Brexit Ref was and how poisonous the atmosphere has become since

Apologies GR I picked you up wrong. I jumped straight to the poll itself whereas you were referring to the conditions required for one to be called in the first instance, yes?


3 Why must the UI poll be on the terms you demand? It's based on a 20 year old deal that has clearly failed

It's on the terms that the majority of the people signed up to and the GFA was a bit more than a deal; it's quasi-constitutional in nature.

The source of the Assembly and the Executive, the GFA was designed not to engineer prosperity and efficient governance, but to facilitate a truce between the two factions and end the Troubles. You may describe it as a failure but it succeeded in its primary function. Effective government requires the consent of the governed' tacit or explicit. In NI that has obviously been complicated by the fact that the governed have been divided into two ethno-nationalist groups with different political identities and aspirations. The solution to this was the establishment of institutions with a series of significant safeguards built in to allow the majorities of both groups to feel secure and to “buy in” to the settlement.

These consociational ‘constitutional’ arrangements run counter to normative expectations of what good government looks like since there is a propensity to measure the effectiveness of the Stormont institutions through the lens of the more efficient constitutional arrangements in Westminster or the Dáil. So people must be careful of the metric they’re using as measurement of its fitness. As a rule a system with so many checks and balances and with so many actors having a role in shaping legislation and the performance of executive functions cannot be assessed in the same way as so-called normal style politics. It cannot be measured by the clarity or coherence of a singular vision for the future.

I'd argue that the principle problem in NI is that the politics and politicians haven't matured as quickly as many people hoped. But then there's a fundamental lack of honesty concerning history and NI itself so it's hardly surprising. All in all I would be very hesitant to lay the blame squarely at the framework.



4 Again, I used no code. If there isn't widespread support (including from some Unionists) there's less likely to be a formal poll. When politics is dominated by 2 blocs both with 45%-ish support, they both have a veto of sorts

As I said before, we have to wait and see the whites of Brexit's eyes. The two most recent polls have already shown an effect; both of which tally with my interaction with fellow nationalists any time the conversation comes up. I understand that's not what you're getting at but we'll just have to wait and see how the 'middle ground' reacts down the line.



5 I wasn't thinking of any repartition- that idea is probably a dead duck now ;)

If/when the time comes it'll certainly be interesting to see how much mention repartition gets. I think people will be surprised. It'll probably be less than the wistful mutterings around the concept of Joint-Authority though. :rolleyes:



6 I thought the boys were very dignified on the View last week as it goes. BME resigning as MP should calm things a bit. I doubt SF will lose the by-election...

Yep, unless unionists come out en masse and vote for the SDLP's Daniel McCrossan.

[Gather round]

@Fly

1 Yes, I was thinking of the conditions needed before any UI poll. If the predicted result is close to 50-50 then there are plenty of interests (including the bigger Southern parties as I said) who would likely prefer to wait

2 Even if the GFA was fully constitutional, so what? The 1930s version lasted 60 years despite its opening articles being largely nonsense: the Brits don't even have a single document; maybe more importantly, the 2 blocs in NI don't want to deal with each other, or in SF's case with the Brits at all

3 Afraid you lost me at consociational, normative and metric. If you mean as I suspect 'NI is a place apart' fair dos, but that's not a strong argument that we need to use the 1998 Deal forever. Note I've met you halfway by capitalising it...

4 Aye, we need to wait for the scoreboard- and as I mentioned, there won't be one probably until the next WM election, when the Centre will be squeezed. Meanwhile and anecdotally, I'm not hearing any present Unionist voters (of any age) saying they'll go SF in BT North. After all they can still buy a Southern passport regardless of how they vote

5 A problem for SDLP in the WT by election is that some of their voters will move to SF rather than side with Unionists. Who'll probably have a previously non-party and maybe past victim candidate to pressure SF, rather than 2 candidates to get all their 35% out

[The Fly]

@Fly

1 Yes, I was thinking of the conditions needed before any UI poll. If the predicted result is close to 50-50 then there are plenty of interests (including the bigger Southern parties as I said) who would likely prefer to wait

I get what you mean but if polls start to show those sorts of figures consistently then the calls for a referendum within broader nationalism would become incessant and hard to resist.

Unionism needs to get at least 60% in any referendum otherwise we're into a kind of perpetual polling on this at least every 7 years. The problem for unionism is that I doubt that can be achieved now as a result of Brexit.


2 Even if the GFA was fully constitutional, so what? The 1930s version lasted 60 years despite its opening articles being largely nonsense: the Brits don't even have a single document; maybe more importantly, the 2 blocs in NI don't want to deal with each other, or in SF's case with the Brits at all

Perhaps you can outline this new arrangement you have in mind then and explain why nationalists should or would sign up to it?


3 Afraid you lost me at consociational, normative and metric. If you mean as I suspect 'NI is a place apart' fair dos, but that's not a strong argument that we need to use the 1998 Deal forever. Note I've met you halfway by capitalising it...

Well NI, evidently, is a place apart and has been for nearly all of its existence but I was referring to the framework generally. If the Assembly has failed to achieve its kite mark in the last decade, it is because its members have too often reverted to type. The disinterest that Britain has always shown towards NI coupled with its comparatively deep pockets are also a significant factor. Politicians here aren't forced to make the place function better than it does because of the financial doping it receives in the form of the block grant.



5 A problem for SDLP in the WT by election is that some of their voters will move to SF rather than side with Unionists. Who'll probably have a previously non-party and maybe past victim candidate to pressure SF, rather than 2 candidates to get all their 35% out

I meant more by word of mouth, as opposed to openly declaring their intentions...which is nearly impossible to do nowadays anyway because of social media.

I don't agree with this politicisation of victims in the first place and I'd ask the simple question of both unionist parties - what extra political capital do you expect to make out of fielding such a candidate and what would be the gain for unionism in general? It would just recycle the problems for even longer imo.

[Gather round]

@Fly

1 If Nationalism gets 45% in a 2022 GE (say), then 49% in another in 2027, why not just wait another few years until you have 55%? Then there'll be a UI, fair enough. But if on the other hand all those results stay below 50%, we're no further forward. The onus is on Nationalism to up their vote more than on Unionism to get back to a notional 60%. And to do that Nats need to sell the UI to a lot of current non-Nats

2 The only real change I expect soon is direct rule by Karen Bradley. I don't expect Northern Nationalism to do much more than blame Bradley for everything, and local govt to stagnate further

3 I don't want to see either a 'Victims' candidate nor indeed the field narrowed generally. If I lived in Omagh I'd want to vote Green.

4 The gain (I guess) for the Unionist Parties would be little more than a go at taking the high ground briefly. On the usual zero-sum game that anything good for us is bad for themuns and vv

[The Fly]

@Fly

1 If Nationalism gets 45% in a 2022 GE (say), then 49% in another in 2027, why not just wait another few years until you have 55%? Then there'll be a UI, fair enough. But if on the other hand all those results stay below 50%, we're no further forward. The onus is on Nationalism to up their vote more than on Unionism to get back to a notional 60%. And to do that Nats need to sell the UI to a lot of current non-Nats

Nationalists don't really need to sell a UI atm; Brexit is doing it for them because it has moved the discussion into a geo-political and civic sphere. It's those who occupy the so-called middle ground, the Alliance/Green/Other voter, who will prove decisive in any unity referendum in the short to medium term.



2 The only real change I expect soon is direct rule by Karen Bradley. I don't expect Northern Nationalism to do much more than blame Bradley for everything, and local govt to stagnate further

I can't see the Assembly returning any time soon either. It's hard to predict exactly when but my guess would be after the Brexit process is complete.




4 The gain (I guess) for the Unionist Parties would be little more than a go at taking the high ground briefly. On the usual zero-sum game that anything good for us is bad for themuns and vv

I can imagine there's an instinct there to do just that but I'd counsel the unionist parties against it. It would be easily, and rightly, characterised as political game playing over such a sensitive subject.

It'll be interesting to see how much SF's share of the vote declines though.

-----

What new arrangement do you have in mind btw?

[Wolfman]

The Fly well ahead on points currently.

A UI will happen, just a question of when.
Though actually I think a reduced SF input could help long-term.

[The Fly]

A UI will happen, just a question of when.
Though actually I think a reduced SF input could help long-term.

I just wish nationalists had more of proper choice at elections. SF are now the largest party within broader nationalism primarily because they exist in a vacuum of choice. I still vote SDLP but I do so knowing that it amounts, more or less, to a wasted vote. It’s simply not possible for them to compete anymore because they're not an all-island party. Until FF and FG come up here to contest elections then nobody should expect any change.

SF are definitely a huge stumbling block when it comes to securing even a measure of cross community support for this New Ireland, but then you can hardly blame them for having their core belief front and centre.

[Wolfman]

Except SF/SDLP are generally light years of FF & FG, even with all their associated baggage.

Modern progressive parties barely exist on the whole island, another legacy of the Brits interference.

[Gather round]

@ Fly

1 I think Nationalists should try to sell a UI- it makes that 55%+ support and a smooth transition more likely. In the short term it's likely that a lot of Alliance voters will look to the Unionists- Fear of a Fenian Planet basically (even if they've spent £80 on a new passport)

2 I imagine the by election will have a low turnout (as usual) and SDLP will catch up a bit. Unionists are so far behind they might just go with 2 candidates

3 I know FF and FG are shy of fighting NI elections. That said one of SF's ex councillors in Omagh has now joined the Soldiers of Destiny, so why not give it a go?

4 SF aren't fronting with their core belief (ie that a UI is inevitable past, present and future and a few shootings or paralysis of local govt are just collateral damage). Instead , the leadership have convinced their activists, wider opinion at home and abroad and perhaps even themselves that they're a rainbow coalition of human rights liberation lobbies. Until brainless Barry let it slip, alas

5 Ideally I'd like a few things none of which look likely for now. Variously

- Stormont to return then
- actually pass some laws incl on Language, Marriage and Abortion
- some way to have voluntary coalition or flexible co-operation
- Brexit to be abandoned
- Brussels to give me a passport, in return I promise to drink Kriek, add mayo to chips and read Tintin in the original

[Wolfman]

So just another day in cloud cuckoo land?

Shouldn't you be campaigning for another referendum then?
The EU would welcome this.

[Mr A]

Modern progressive parties barely exist on the whole island, another legacy of the Brits interference.

Is there anything the Brits can't be blamed for?

[Wolfman]

Lots. But the whole island was set up on the premise of Divide-and-rule and this is its political legacy sadly.

[Mr A]

I cannot see how the British can be blamed for the state of politics in the Republic. That's on us.

[Wolfman]

It shouldn't be, but look at the history of the vast majority of parties on the island.

[The Fly]

@ Fly

1 I think Nationalists should try to sell a UI- it makes that 55%+ support and a smooth transition more likely. In the short term it's likely that a lot of Alliance voters will look to the Unionists- Fear of a Fenian Planet basically (even if they've spent £80 on a new passport)

I agree but it's nearly impossible to do so when we don't have the political outlets to do it. It's very frustrating as a voter generally.

I appreciate and sympathise with unionist fears. All I can say is that for me this New Ireland (I prefer not to use the term united Ireland) isn't about some sort of victory over unionists. That doesn't feature in my thinking at all.


3 I know FF and FG are shy of fighting NI elections. That said one of SF's ex councillors in Omagh has now joined the Soldiers of Destiny, so why not give it a go?

Well I wish they'd get over their shyness. I firmly believe that Sinn Fein would haemorrhage votes to them if they did.


4 SF aren't fronting with their core belief (ie that a UI is inevitable past, present and future and a few shootings or paralysis of local govt are just collateral damage). Instead , the leadership have convinced their activists, wider opinion at home and abroad and perhaps even themselves that they're a rainbow coalition of human rights liberation lobbies. Until brainless Barry let it slip, alas

Front and centre as in they're never shy in talking about it.

& I can totally get how the way they have wrapped themselves in the equality banner winds people up.



5 Ideally I'd like a few things none of which look likely for now. Variously

- Stormont to return then
- actually pass some laws incl on Language, Marriage and Abortion
- some way to have voluntary coalition or flexible co-operation
- Brexit to be abandoned
- Brussels to give me a passport, in return I promise to drink Kriek, add mayo to chips and read Tintin in the original

In other words - Stormont to return with reform of the petition of concern; whistling in the wind with talk of Brexit reversal; & keeping an eye on this - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42707383 ;)

[Wolfman]

You're seriously suggesting vast numbers of SF voters would vote FF/FG in the North?
Why...

[Gather round]

@ Fly

1 That's a bit pessimistic surely? Even without Stormont or a wider range of MPs there are still ways for broad N & U opinion to discuss compromise

2 It's Unionists own fault/ choice that they are seen (as) only negative(ly), including by themselves. That isn't likely to change soon and of course SF play up to it. If gormlessly in recent days. The name for any new structure matters little

3 Any broad estimate of how many votes FF or FG would get in WT?

4 What winds me up is the offhand attitude to day to day issues of local govt- health, education, housing etc. I've no problems with them pretending to be a Rainbow Coalition too and as I suggested I want Bradley to enact for gay marriage and the rest immediately. Remember that I've had 40 years of not believing much that SF say, but as long as there's no return to a shooting war that's not the biggest stumbling block

5 Whoa- I have always opposed the P of C- partly as the DUP esp have abused it, partly cos I don't like legalese or the sociological waffle I gently chided you for above. When there are 2 blocs of 45% it's almost inevitable that they'll need to do some sort of coalition eventually

6 The passport thing was a joke. I can get one from Dublin tomorrow. Half the Rathcoole UDA already have, so I'm told