Referendum to be held on European fiscal compact

[GenerationXI]

What's wrong with amn't? The rest of the world is out of step: he is and he isn't = I am and I amn't.

It's up there with people spelling 'than' t-h-E-n. As in, 'It feels more normal to say 'amn't' then 'am not.' People who do either should be hung upside-down by their toenails.

With regard to the economy, I'd shut the door on Europe. Drop corporate tax rates to 7.5%, introduce secret banking, debt forgiveness and tell Shell the deal is over, we're taking back our oil and we're 'doing a Norway on it.'

[Macy]

The wording is very important, and the wording we know was used and the way it was used, suggested that the AG thought a referendum should be held, rather than must be. There is an important difference.
If there was no need for a referendum, we wouldn't be having one. It must have been pretty clear cut, as it would inevitably have been referred to the Supreme Court (as the President would be aware it would be challenged by a citizen). Actions speak louder than words.

[Macy]

No deal imminent. If this remains the ECB's attitude, to debt that shouldn't be our burden, they can stick their fiscal compact.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2012/0309/1224313063599.html

[mypost]

No deal imminent. If this remains the ECB's attitude, to debt that shouldn't be our burden, they can stick their fiscal compact.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2012/0309/1224313063599.html

What were you expecting? You heard what ex-ECB President Trichet said of our ability to pay our way. You saw what the government said of it too. We will pay, even though we can't, but we will pay.

However the vote shouldn't be about it. The proposals benefit countries with their house in order. That obviously isn't us atm. Maybe it will be, if and when we do.

[culloty82]

The first debate tonight at 9 with VB as moderator. No Kenny, Gilmore or Burton, so Coveney and Martin will argue the Yes case, opposed by Higgins and McDonald for the No campaign.

[Spudulika]

Looks like the toughest wimp on the block is in hiding. Lost any last shred of respect I had for Noonan today, total scumbag. I hope that finally Labour will end the joke and walk away from the wimpbiskits in FG and allow them back with their natural allies, FF. Will watch tonight with great interest. Just wondering how often the kissing cousins will refer to SF's past?

[culloty82]

One wonders how long the compact will survive in its current form with Hollande wanting a growth clause included, and the Greek elections pushing them ever closer to a default. The French plan is probably closer to what the Coalition wanted when they were elected, but when no change would be possible before June at the earliest, maybe the vote should be postponed as has been suggested.

[Eminence Grise]

All very true, and with Merkel's party losing in federal elections in Schleswig-Holstein you have to wonder whether Germans are unhappy with her too. (http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0506/local-elections-take-place-in-germany-and-italy.html) If anything, I can see that making her more determined to ensure that the treaty is passed, while she still has power. Next year could tell a very different story indeed.

Edit: and here she is, straight out of the blocks telling the Greeks off for voting the wrong way. No mention of her own inability to win the Schleswig-Holstein election though.:rolleyes:

'The EU and Germany have stressed Greece must keep to the terms of the two EU/IMF bailouts, after a surge of voter support for anti-austerity parties.

'The two main parties, New Democracy and Pasok, attracted less than a third of the vote, in an election plunging Greece into political uncertainty.

'Chancellor Angela Merkel said Greece's reforms were of "utmost importance".'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17975370

[Spudulika]

EG, I've found that most folks at home are very unaware of the struggles Merkel is having in Germany, and the strictures she's laying down on her own people. It seems as if there is a need to show external strength while hammering the locals. Meanwhile our own crooks play games with words and continue to ruin any chance of a recovery. We need a good old bloody coup, bloody as in the type where Dame Edna and his lackey Comrade Gilmore are summarily tried then taken out into Stephens Green, tied to each other and drowned. The blood come sin when the ducks start feeding on them.

[culloty82]

Samaras, the ND leader gave up after only 12 hours, so Syriza, the alternative communist party, get the chance to try to fix up an Uncle Tom Cobley anti-bailout coalition. Another, even less conclusive election will follow, so the drachma printing presses are probably getting warmed up.

[Spudulika]

Looks like the FG/Labour regime will get their way, the sheep will vote as they're told. I suppose the threats about job destruction and financial calamity to vote no from the Lisbon treaty has been forgotten and this latest shower of cronies with their threats and bullyboy tactics just accepted. Listening to Howlin huff and fluff his way through another interview - "it'll help get the country off it's feet", a little Freud anyone?

[Eminence Grise]

It's depressing alright. Yesterday, RTE online reported that Noonan wanted to send a signal to Europe - expect an increase in emergency flares any day soon.

What bugs me is that we're still not getting the full European picture from the media - after Schleswig-Holstein, Merkel's party lost North Rhine Westphalia last week, another federal parliament out of her control; not just is Sarkozy gone, she no longer has support from the Dutch government. She and the policy of austerity are becoming increasingly isolated in Europe. In twelve months, Merkel is going to be consigned to history by German voters, who are fed up with austerity and fed up paying taxes to maintain German industrial interests (the current state of the euro and low interest rates benefit them, almost uniquely in Europe, David McWiliams said recently - Radio 1 Drivetime, I think). We're going to be voting on a treaty that may be changed (or no longer policy) by the time it is formally ratified by every country.

The government wants to think it's running with the big dogs, but it's pi55ing like puppies all over us.

[Macy]

The No side haven't really come up with a viable alternative funding method, imo. Talking about us not letting us default maybe ok, but that ignores how the IMF have been toned down by being part of a Troika (much to the disappointment of right wing nutters on places like politics.ie).

I think there is a case for delaying ratification/ voting, but I'm also not convinced it won't be something additional rather than changes to this treaty.

I don't really get the "sheep" reference - just because they don't agree with your point of view?

[Spudulika]

No Macy, not because they don't agree with me, or because they disagree with me. It's the willingness with which so many intelligent and rational people will believe, in all sincerity, that ratifying a treaty that could be dumped within 12months will make it all okay. Or because they've been threatened by the lowest of the low like Noonan with a tough budget that by voting as they're told will mean less pain. I agree that there hasn't been a strong enough case made by the No camp, but when the government are controlling the levers of media power then it will never be fully elaborated.

I cannot see, how this ruling junta are continued to be allowed run rampage over the country with continued lies and broken policies. From "renegotiating" to the olympics joke, they just cannot be trusted to do the right thing. Plus their buddies in Europe are taking a beating.

[Macy]

Can only speak for my own social circle where it's been discussed, but I haven't met any Yes voter who thinks this treaty is going to make it all ok. Least worst option at the moment is the most common feeling I've encountered.

Talk of a ruling junta is ridiculous hyperbole, whatever your opinions of whether there was lies and if there's been broken promises.

[Eminence Grise]

I think there is a case for delaying ratification/ voting, but I'm also not convinced it won't be something additional rather than changes to this treaty.



Once a bill for a referendum has been enacted, a referendum cannot be delayed, modified or withdrawn. The Referendum Commission cleared this up the other day.

If anybody has any doubt about what they are voting for, I would suggest voting no. The referendum is being held early enough to allow for a re-run in case we get it 'wrong' - there is ample time to hold a re-run in September (and no compelling reason other than the comfort of a second date why it could not have been held then for the first time). By then the European political scene might be a little clearer. I would expect that France will have negotiated a protocol on stimulus by that stage. While that would keep the treaty unchanged for everybody, it does pose the question as to why we are not seeking to have protocols inserted that would similarly provide for stimulus measures. Once we ratify, we effectively prevent ourselves from seeking the inclusion of protocols.

Ratification being the least worst option doesn't sit right with me. Better, I think, to reject, negotiate protocols based on how political and economic thought has been refined from hard economic right over the summer, and vote again in September.

I wouldn't limit criticism to the no side for not providing a clear outline of alternative funding - Merkel and Co and the ECB have 'solved' the problem several times in the last three years, and each time matters have disimproved. As far as I can see, neither side has a clue what the financial and economic ramifications of the treaty are going to be.

[Spudulika]

Talk of a ruling junta is ridiculous hyperbole, whatever your opinions of whether there was lies and if there's been broken promises.

No whether about it, they lied, have lied, lie and broke promises. What is worse is that they have threatened, insulted and abused, junta might be (in your opinion) hyperbole, however it is not beyond reason that they attempt to act in an honest and decent fashion. While from Enda Kenny I might accept some silliness, from Noonan I cannot stomach a man who sneered, threatened and insulted a dying mother. Sorry, just the tolerance for him disintegrated when he lied about Europe and then made threats about the budget.

Agreed with you on the delay of the treaty - however as EG points out it can't be done. Isn't there a case that the President can send it back for further scrutiny (not veto it).

EG, as you're far more clued into the situation, can the treaty be thrown out at European level? I mean, can it be taken off unless all countries ratify it? It's been scheduled very cleverly for ratification (we're the same day as Italy right?), but if Greece and France throw it out, what happens then?

[Charlie Darwin]

I think the rules behind the compact itself are eminently sensible, however I don't think they require a treaty for us to follow them or to be bound at a European level and, I think, ultimately any well-run nation should be enshrining these principles in law anyway. So I just see the treaty as a straight-forward referendum on the current policy of austerity and giving public money to private billionaires as dictated by Europe, so I'm going to vote no.

[Eminence Grise]

Agreed with you on the delay of the treaty - however as EG points out it can't be done. Isn't there a case that the President can send it back for further scrutiny (not veto it).

EG, as you're far more clued into the situation, can the treaty be thrown out at European level? I mean, can it be taken off unless all countries ratify it? It's been scheduled very cleverly for ratification (we're the same day as Italy right?), but if Greece and France throw it out, what happens then?

For God's sake, Spud - sssshhh!!! You'll blow my cover. I'm as much in the dark about this as the blokes wot wrote up the Treaty!! Clued in? Cluedo, more like!

The President can only refer an Oireachtas bill to the Supreme Court to test its constitutionality, but a referendum is considered the voice of the people ('We, the people of Eire ... Do hereby adopt enact and give to ourselves this constitution.') and is the final word.


Meantime, I dug this out of the treaty:
Article 14.2. This Treaty shall enter into force on 1 January 2013, provided that twelve Contracting Parties whose currency is the euro have deposited their instrument of ratification, or on the first day of the month following the deposit of the twelfth instrument of ratification by a Contracting Party whose currency is the euro, whichever is the earlier.

So it seems that 12 ratifications are needed to make it binding for all 17 members of the eurozone, and not ratifying it in that instance means that we will be bound by its provisions, but not eligible for financial support. Where that leaves it if France and ourselves and one or two others start seeking protocols is another story.

[John83]

...So it seems that 12 ratifications are needed to make it binding for all 17 members of the eurozone, and not ratifying it in that instance means that we will be bound by its provisions, but not eligible for financial support. Where that leaves it if France and ourselves and one or two others start seeking protocols is another story.
As I understand it, if we don't get 12 ratificiations, it's dead. If we get 12 or more, those countries which ratified it are bound by it and the others are not. 2 speed Europe is the buzzword, I think.

[mypost]

As I understand it, if we don't get 12 ratificiations, it's dead. If we get 12 or more, those countries which ratified it are bound by it and the others are not. 2 speed Europe is the buzzword, I think.

Correct. But it will get the necessary and more ratifications. Even those dithering will eventually ratify it.

Re here: France are looking for additions for themselves, but we are looking to ratify it as is stands. So the current provisions will only apply to those who ratified them at the time. So basically one rule for some, and another for others.

I find it laughable that those who appealed most strenously for a vote earlier in the year, now want it delayed. But what is not laughable is that the Government's selling point i.e. ESM funding is rather sad. The whole point of the cuts and taxes is to meet our commitments, and not be relying on bailouts and handouts. The people of Greece, Spain, France, and soon inevitably Germany have given the finger to austerity programmes, but our public seem to roll over and take them, as it looks like they will do again in two weeks time.

[Comic Book Guy]

I'm voting no because quite simply the state is addicted to borrowing, until such time as our government grasps this then we are putting off the inevitable. A lot of vested interests need to be taken on and beaten imo. The cpa needs to be torn up, for example 90% of our policing budget goes on pay and pensions. Our welfare system is too generous and needs to be reduced, there is huge wastage in our public service.
The first function of any government must be to balance its books as though it were a household. We don't need the eu to tell us that. Yes there will be a lot of pain for a few years but in the long run we will be better off. The second reason I'm voting no is that there has been no reduction on the private bank debt. I would ask anyone undecided to vote no, it sends the message that the people of Ireland are fed up and we will not tolerate this.

[Mr A]

This piece on politics.ie is worth a look: http://www.politics.ie/forum/european-treaty-2012/189101-my-own-personal-greece.html

Makes some good arguments I think.

Also, the ULA have posters up on my road with white writing on a yellow background. That's quality stupid right there, worth opposing anybody doing that. I'll be voting yes.

The Yes campaign has been poor enough, but the No campaign has been dreadful. Full of populist, hysterical nonsense and often just flat out fanciful.

Going with Yes as least bad option.. but once again my opinion of political discourse in this country diminishes even further.

[bennocelt]

Also, the ULA have posters up on my road with white writing on a yellow background. That's quality stupid right there, worth opposing anybody doing that. I'll be voting yes.

Going with Yes as least bad option.. but once again my opinion of political discourse in this country diminishes even further.

Like voting on the basis of a poster:p

[culloty82]

So, turnout said to be low so far, likely to finish at 50-60%. The consensus seems to be that <=50% means a No win, 50-55% would be too close to call, while 55% + should guarantee a Yes victory.

[BonnieShels]

On the way home now to vote...

Yeah... I'm voting No in spite of my loyalties.

[mypost]

So, turnout said to be low so far, likely to finish at 50-60%. The consensus seems to be that <=50% means a No win, 50-55% would be too close to call, while 55% + should guarantee a Yes victory.

Turnout was very low, but it doesn't guarantee victory for the NO camp, like the high turnout for Lisbon in 2008 didn't guarantee a Yes win.

It will probably be carried, but things are unlikely to change for Joe and Joanna Average. They've just given the government the power to impose more difficult budgets, not only next year, or the year after, but several decades down the line. And when they protest, the government will say "you voted for it".

[bennocelt]

Well done Ireland, voted for more taxes and cuts, tsk - then they will be moaning in a year or two about it (over a few pints no doubt or on here). The fighting irish? long gone..........

[Mr A]

Surprised that Yes appears to have taken this by a margin. had a punt the other day on the margin being less than 8% and when I saw the turnout was wishing I'd taken 8/1 on No winning. Shows what I feckin know!

[Macy]

Well done Ireland, voted for more taxes and cuts, tsk - then they will be moaning in a year or two about it (over a few pints no doubt or on here). The fighting irish? long gone..........
Because a no vote would've meant no more taxes and no more cuts? That's been the general quality of the no side arguments, hence why they appear to have lost.

[Dodge]

Well done Ireland, voted for more taxes and cuts, tsk - then they will be moaning in a year or two about it (over a few pints no doubt or on here). The fighting irish? long gone..........

This referendum had no impact on whether cuts and texes were happening. They were going to happen anyway, and its fairyland stuff to think otherwise

[total hoofball]

Disasterous day for the country. The Irish people have yet again succumbed to fear and voted to kick the can down the road yet again.

A vote in favour of a bad economic treaty, a vote in favour of the extension of a lost decade for the unemployed and young people, a vote in favour of the extension of the gravy train for the rich and upper-middle classes. The socio-economic demographic voting patterns don't lie.

Our last opportunity to kill the bank debt and to start to properly balance our budget is blown. Our debt is unsustainable, the politicians on both sides have pulled a con job on the people of the real consequences of the treaty and this country's economic and debt problems.

Irrespective of today's decision Greece or/and Spain will sink the Euro project in the next number of months.

[bennocelt]

Because a no vote would've meant no more taxes and no more cuts? That's been the general quality of the no side arguments, hence why they appear to have lost.

well thats wrong for a start

[bennocelt]

This referendum had no impact on whether cuts and texes were happening. They were going to happen anyway, and its fairyland stuff to think otherwise

well it does if the trika need more for the bailouts and the bondholders - you are living in fairyland if you think this has no effect on the current economy. Answer me this - what would the Irish economy be like now if we had done what Iceland did, if we had slimmed down the banks at least, if we dont keep wasting money on repaying bondholders, etc etc????

[Dodge]

Answer me this - what would the Irish economy be like now if we had done what Iceland did, if we had slimmed down the banks at least, if we dont keep wasting money on repaying bondholders, etc etc????

No clue, but the fact is we didn't. We pumped billions into the banks, and that money is now gone. The debate about what we should've done 4 years ago is pretty pointless now. (and for the record I was against any kind of a bank bailout then)

The facts are that we'll need to borrow heavily for the next ten years or so, and without this we wouldn't have had anyone willing to lend to us.

Banks or no banks.

[Charlie Darwin]

Disasterous day for the country. The Irish people have yet again succumbed to fear and voted to kick the can down the road yet again.

A vote in favour of a bad economic treaty, a vote in favour of the extension of a lost decade for the unemployed and young people, a vote in favour of the extension of the gravy train for the rich and upper-middle classes. The socio-economic demographic voting patterns don't lie.

Our last opportunity to kill the bank debt and to start to properly balance our budget is blown. Our debt is unsustainable, the politicians on both sides have pulled a con job on the people of the real consequences of the treaty and this country's economic and debt problems.

Irrespective of today's decision Greece or/and Spain will sink the Euro project in the next number of months.
I'm surprised more hasn't been made of this. Then again if you consider the socio-economic profile of most political journalists.

[bennocelt]

No clue, but the fact is we didn't. We pumped billions into the banks, and that money is now gone. The debate about what we should've done 4 years ago is pretty pointless now. (and for the record I was against any kind of a bank bailout then)

The facts are that we'll need to borrow heavily for the next ten years or so, and without this we wouldn't have had anyone willing to lend to us.

Banks or no banks.

Ok thats fair point gov.
But the only problem is we still doing the same then as we are doing now - ie getting loans to pay back bad loans, have the present government any idea how to get the economy moving again other than tax increases and budget cuts???? Is austerity working?
Would the world end if we defaulted and stopped paying huge amounts to bondholders???
It wont work anyway, just delaying the inevitable

[Macy]

Our last opportunity to kill the bank debt and to start to properly balance our budget is blown. Our debt is unsustainable, the politicians on both sides have pulled a con job on the people of the real consequences of the treaty and this country's economic and debt problems.
How would voting no have killed the bank debt?


well thats wrong for a start .
The no side have conceded the result, and that they've lost.


Would the world end if we defaulted and stopped paying huge amounts to bondholders???
It wont work anyway, just delaying the inevitable
The world wouldn't end, but it wouldn't be the end of austerity!

[bennocelt]

How would voting no have killed the bank debt?


The no side have conceded the result, and they they've lost.

thats correct


How would voting no have killed the bank debt?


The no side have conceded the result, and that they've lost.


The world wouldn't end, but it wouldn't be the end of austerity!

True but money would be spent differently, one would like to think

[Dodge]

True but money would be spent differently, one would like to think

What money?

[bennocelt]

What money?

eh so we would be using rocks then i suppose? You really think that the Euro will survive this?
Its going to happen anyway - I guess Greece will be the first

[Spudulika]

This is the latest in the long line of Irish submissions to the ruling class, in our own country. I hope the ruling FG-Labour junta are not found out to be lying having denied we need a 2nd bailout and that this will mean access to funding long term. And that there is a stimulus package written into it.

[Dodge]

eh so we would be using rocks then i suppose?

You're saying that money coul;d've been spent differently. I'm pointing out that without borrowing we won't have anything to spend

[Macy]

eh so we would be using rocks then i suppose? You really think that the Euro will survive this?
Its going to happen anyway - I guess Greece will be the first
Defaulting would mean the mother of all austerity as we'd have to balance the books straight away. We wouldn't have the bank money to spend elsewhere.


This is the latest in the long line of Irish submissions to the ruling class, in our own country. I hope the ruling FG-Labour junta are not found out to be lying having denied we need a 2nd bailout and that this will mean access to funding long term. And that there is a stimulus package written into it.

I ask again, do actually know what a fecking junta is? It sure as hell isn't a democratically elected Government well within the terms of office as laid out by legislation and the constitution.

The main yes side argument was that we needed to pass the treaty to access the esm, on the basis it's the new eu bailout fund and we may need to access it, so I'm not sure where the lie is coming into it on that either.

[bennocelt]

You're saying that money coul;d've been spent differently. I'm pointing out that without borrowing we won't have anything to spend

Dodge you are making good points and I understand where you are coming from
BUT its going to happen anyway - to continue getting huge loans and never-ending debt is not a solution at all.
Clean slate, or something more radical - but to be continualy relying on the same shower of useless politicians and "experts" that got us into this problem doesn't sit well with me. I dont think Inda will solve our problems


Defaulting would mean the mother of all austerity as we'd have to balance the books straight away. We wouldn't have the bank money to spend elsewhere.
.

Iceland are doing fine, many nations have done it in the past - including the UK.

[Macy]

Iceland are doing fine, many nations have done it in the past - including the UK.
The time to do an iceland was at bank guarantee time.

I don't really disagree with your reply to dodge - something must be done about the debt and europe is heading that way imo. Slowly, but the spanish situation might force their hand regarding pace. However, I personally think it's still early to really judge the current Government on this - they're making small gains and we have feck all power in the EU, but it is going in the right direction. I don't think if we'd voted no it'd have done much anyway.

[Dodge]

Dodge you are making good points and I understand where you are coming from
BUT its going to happen anyway - to continue getting huge loans and never-ending debt is not a solution at all.
Oh I agre with that, but the hope is the loans help aid some sort of recovery. Certainly can't see one without investment, eeven if in the form of loans


Clean slate, or something more radical - but to be continualy relying on the same shower of useless politicians and "experts" that got us into this problem doesn't sit well with me. I dont think Inda will solve our problems

Like Macy, I think that time has passed. I'd have been in favour of clean slates, 4 years ago. Now we've some sort of handle on things, I think it requires loads more work, but there could be a glimmer

[bennocelt]

I guess it all boils down to if your a pessimist or an optimist. I dont trust the current crowd, or the last crowd.

[mypost]

Iceland are doing fine.

No they are not.

Balancing the books immediately is what some economists have recommended, rather than the year in, year out sequence of cuts and taxes. But the country has to stop looking for bailouts and handouts, and learn to stand on it's own feet. Otherwise there's no point cutting everything to the bone.

The people have once again decided to obey the government, and are now locked into the terms of an agreement, that the main Euro players haven't signed, and if they don't, we'll look a proper bunch of eejits.

[bennocelt]

No they are not.

.

I know its not all rosy but dont they still have a relatively low level of unemployment and recently started some debt forgiveness for mortgage holders....still better than ireland i bet anyway