Rankings

[swinfordfc]

With the next updating of Rankings at the end of june (june 29th), with ireland wining they last 3 games (n ireland, scotland and macedonia) and have the italy game to come on tuesday, would these results boosts us at all in the rankings?

[French Toasht]

Doubt it is sufficient enough to get us into pot as second seeds for the World Cup draw at the end of July. Currently we are the 22nd best team in Europe and would have to jump to 18th, which according to this mathemathician means we only have 0.03% chance.

http://www.football-rankings.info/2011/04/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-simulation.html

We'll be third seeds but with a good performance we could take 4 points off any of the second seeds.

http://www.football-rankings.info/2011/04/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-uefa-10000.html

[BonnieShels]

Is that you anonymous?

[DannyInvincible]

This site (http://www.football-rankings.info/2011/06/fifa-ranking-june-2011-probable-ranking.html) pre-calculates potential rankings based on "probable" results computed using the Elo rating system. It has us down as beating Macedonia (which it got right) and losing to Italy. If we do lose to Italy and other results go as the site expects, we'll move up one place to 33rd.


Ranking | Team | Points | +/- Ranking | +/- Points
1 Spain 1871 0 14
2 Netherlands 1688 0 -14
3 Germany 1417 1 4
4 England 1243 2 80
5 Brazil 1130 -2 -295
6 Italy 1104 3 85
7 Portugal 1046 1 -6
8 Croatia 1033 2 42
9 Montenegro 1011 15 191
10 Argentina 1007 -5 -260
11 Norway 972 0 -15
12 Greece 959 0 -26
12 Mexico 959 16 157
14 Japan 949 0 -12
15 RUSSIA 940 3 44
16 France 932 3 49
17 Côte d'Ivoire 922 4 55
18 USA 887 4 32
19 Sweden 884 9 82
20 Uruguay 876 -13 -218
21 Denmark 857 6 49
22 Australia 852 -2 -24
23 Slovenia 833 -6 -70
24 Turkey 820 6 25
25 Korea Republic 787 6 33
26 Egypt 785 10 109
27 Chile 782 -14 -185
27 Serbia 782 -11 -125
29 SLOVAKIA 779 -3 -30
30 Paraguay 756 -7 -91
31 Ghana 735 -16 -183
32 Switzerland 724 -7 -95
33 REPUBLIC OF IRELAND 708 1 27
34 Israel 703 -1 -6
35 Belgium 691 2 37
36 Nigeria 673 3 36
37 Cameroon 669 12 97
38 Burkina Faso 661 6 61
39 Czech Republic 653 -7 -69
40 Honduras 651 3 48

Italy are currently ranked 9th, however, so I'd imagine a draw or win would do us well, albeit in a friendly game. Not sure where it would leave us though, although if you want to try and work it out, this document (http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/fifafacts/rawrank/ip-590_10e_wrpointcalculation_8771.pdf) outlines the calculation process.

Slovakia's win against Andorra was correctly predicted, as was Russia's against Armenia, although they're also predicted to beat Cameroon in their next friendly if they're to rise from 18th to 15th. Slovakia don't play another game until after the next update, so it's likely they'll move down from 26th. The site has them for 29th come the end of the month.

I note Montenegro have been predicted to enter into the top ten - quite an astonishing rise of 15 places - although I see that was based on expecting them beating Bulgaria yesterday, a match they only drew 1-1. It's unlikely they'll enter the top ten as a result then.

[DannyInvincible]

Doubt it is sufficient enough to get us into pot as second seeds for the World Cup draw at the end of July. Currently we are the 22nd best team in Europe and would have to jump to 18th, which according to this mathemathician means we only have 0.03% chance.

http://www.football-rankings.info/2011/04/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-simulation.html

We'll be third seeds but with a good performance we could take 4 points off any of the second seeds.

http://www.football-rankings.info/2011/04/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-uefa-10000.html

I see you got there before me. :p

How would we go about making it into pot 2 by the July rankings considering we only play one game before now and then? Beat Italy and desperately hope other results go in our favour somehow?

I think it's fair to say that it's in our interests, for the sole purpose of rising up the rankings at least, that our upcoming opponents are ranked as highly as possible, so that if we do manage results against them, if will bear us greater rewards. Would that be correct?

[DannyInvincible]

Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova, Poland
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales

Drawing Norway and Slovenia as our first and second seeds would be a dream. Even Croatia and Greece in the first pot, I wouldn't be too worried about.

France, Russia and Serbia are quite dangerous in that second pot. Wouldn't like to be drawn with them along with a first pot powerhouse.

[BonnieShels]

So Norway, Slovakia, Austria, Finland, San Marino...

[French Toasht]

Danny, these rankings are impossible to figure out. To my mind if a country was solely concerned with their ranking, they would only ever organise friendlies against the Faroes and San Marino, because the weighting towards a draw against a high ranked nation (say Italy) seems to be disproportionately disadvantaged against a win against the Faroes. The effort : reward ratio is not recognised by these rankings. For example in a month when Scotland only played the second best team in the world, Brazil, and lost 2-0 (no great shame), they dropped 16 places in the rankings. Particularly at a time when we attach great importance to the rankings, (around draw time), it really makes no sense to play one of the best nations in the world.

That said, win lose or draw against Italy, we are too far from climbing into the second pot or falling into the 4th pot, so really the game is of no practical significance to our ranking position.



Best case scenario: Norway, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Iceland, San Marino.

Worst case scenario: Spain, France, Scotland, Poland, Wales.

[pineapple stu]

9 Montenegro 1011 15 191
10 Argentina 1007 -5 -260
What now?!

[IsMiseSean]

How can Montenegro be ahead of us in pot 2 when we finished above them in the 2010 qualifiers and this is only their second qualifying campaign?

[pineapple stu]

Because the Elo system wouldn't allow for the fact that they're not playing that long (which, when you think of it, shouldn't really be a factor anyway).

In the current official world rankings (http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html), Argentina are currently 5th and Montenegro 24th.

[DannyInvincible]

Danny, these rankings are impossible to figure out. To my mind if a country was solely concerned with their ranking, they would only ever organise friendlies against the Faroes and San Marino, because the weighting towards a draw against a high ranked nation (say Italy) seems to be disproportionately disadvantaged against a win against the Faroes. The effort : reward ratio is not recognised by these rankings. For example in a month when Scotland only played the second best team in the world, Brazil, and lost 2-0 (no great shame), they dropped 16 places in the rankings. Particularly at a time when we attach great importance to the rankings, (around draw time), it really makes no sense to play one of the best nations in the world.

That said, win lose or draw against Italy, we are too far from climbing into the second pot or falling into the 4th pot, so really the game is of no practical significance to our ranking position.



Best case scenario: Norway, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Iceland, San Marino.

Worst case scenario: Spain, France, Scotland, Poland, Wales.

So, theoretically, if utilising friendlies for the purpose of anything other than trying to boost our ranking wasn't priority, we should be organising meaningless friendlies against opposition we're certain to beat approaching draw time?

[French Toasht]

So, theoretically, if utilising friendlies for the purpose of anything other than trying to boost our ranking wasn't priority, we should be organising meaningless friendlies against opposition we're certain to beat approaching draw time?


Exactly. For the past year we should only have played teams from pot 5 and 6 in friendlies. Winning against big nations is rewarded, but the detriment of a loss against them can be extremely punitive eg Scotland v Brazil example.

[Schumi]

How would we go about making it into pot 2 by the July rankings considering we only play one game before now and then? Beat Italy and desperately hope other results go in our favour somehow?

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/05/30/article-0-0C55F69B00000578-548_468x316.jpg

[Sullivinho]

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/05/30/article-0-0C55F69B00000578-548_468x316.jpg

÷

http://www.dailyguideghana.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/blatter_warner.jpg

=

http://img.rasset.ie/000393ad10dr.jpg

[abcd]

Always thought friendlies had no bearing on the rankings. Bit of a farce how much friendlies can scew the rankings. Looking at Montonegro so high makes little sense even with their excellent start to this campaign and I'm open to correction but I think Euro 2000 may have been Norways last Championship yet the almost ever present tournament finalists Sweden are below them. No real complaint with most of the teams above us in fairness but other countries could have some grievances.

[BonnieShels]

Always thought friendlies had no bearing on the rankings. Bit of a farce how much friendlies can scew the rankings. Looking at Montonegro so high makes little sense even with their excellent start to this campaign and I'm open to correction but I think Euro 2000 may have been Norways last Championship yet the almost ever present tournament finalists Sweden are below them. No real complaint with most of the teams above us in fairness but other countries could have some grievances.

It's when you see certain Asian and north American sides above you that the rankings can rankle.

[DannyInvincible]

A surprise appearance in the top 45 from Burkina Faso, although Gabon have been unable to halt a slide down the rankings. After one or two of the fairly recent ranking updates, Gabon were actually ranked ahead of ourselves. Mad.

[BonnieShels]

A surprise appearance in the top 45 from Burkina Faso, although Gabon have been unable to halt a slide down the rankings. After one or two of the fairly recent ranking updates, Gabon were actually ranked ahead of ourselves. Mad.

I sometimes question my obsessions with such triviality and then along you come Danny...
:P

[Cymro]

Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine

Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova, Poland
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales

I think my signature says it all, really.

[Edgar]

Danny, these rankings are impossible to figure out. To my mind if a country was solely concerned with their ranking, they would only ever organise friendlies against the Faroes and San Marino, because the weighting towards a draw against a high ranked nation (say Italy) seems to be disproportionately disadvantaged against a win against the Faroes. The effort : reward ratio is not recognised by these rankings. For example in a month when Scotland only played the second best team in the world, Brazil, and lost 2-0 (no great shame), they dropped 16 places in the rankings. Particularly at a time when we attach great importance to the rankings, (around draw time), it really makes no sense to play one of the best nations in the world.

Absolutely not true. Faroe and San Marino would only bring your ranking down. It's about averages and minnows bring very few points.


That said, win lose or draw against Italy, we are too far from climbing into the second pot or falling into the 4th pot, so really the game is of no practical significance to our ranking position.

You're locked in Pot 3 now.

[shakermaker1982]

Norway, Slovenia, Norn Iron, Estonia and San Marino would be nice.

Spain, France, Romania, Poland and Kazakhstan might be tricky....

[French Toasht]

Fair enough Edgar, but I'm still baffled as to the operation of the rankings. Because its predicted that we will only rise one place in the June rankings when we have played 4 matches, won 3 and presumably lose to Italy (a predicted loss to Italy is factored into the predicted rise of one place). Now this has been a month where the majority of teams in Europe have either not played or just played one match. However we have 3 wins in the bag over most sides in Europe, yet still don't get the reward that deserves. I can only imagine that the predicted loss to Italy will be excessively punitive in terms of rankings to negate our three victories over Northern Ireland, Scotland and Macedonia.

Would it be better for us in terms of points to play and lose to Italy, than not play them at all. Basically do you get points for playing matches, even if you get beaten?

Also would a competitive victory over Macedonia not yield more points than a friendly victory over Italy?

[Edgar]

It's better to not play at all, than to play and lose. No, you don't get points just for playing matches. Look at San Marino - they play plenty of matches.
A competitive win over Macedonia brought you 862.5 points. A win against Italy would bring you only 573.

[French Toasht]

Thanks. OK, so we are predicted to rise one place to 33rd when presumably our reserve team are beaten by Italy.

So say we never played Italy (and thus, never lost that game), where would we rise to in the rankings?

[swinfordfc]

I think tomorrow game will finished 0-0 ... what would that do to our ranking?

[Torn-Ado]

Norway in Pot 1. Am I missing something here?

[Edgar]

Thanks. OK, so we are predicted to rise one place to 33rd when presumably our reserve team are beaten by Italy.

So say we never played Italy (and thus, never lost that game), where would we rise to in the rankings?

736 points (extra 24 points) than the predicted 708 (with a loss against Italy)

752 with a win.
721 with a draw.

[Charlie Darwin]

Even the alphabet is conspiring against Wales. Below San Marino :(

[geysir]

Wales have scraped out of the frying pan into pot 5.
Beating the whipping boys NI, saved their bacon.

[French Toasht]

Norway in Pot 1. Am I missing something here?

This is whats wrong with the rankings. One good half campaign and you can be catapulted into pot 1. Although if we were to draw them as our top seeds, I'd be delighted.

[Bottle of Tonic]

How did Montenegro acheive such a high ranking? They've only been in two campaigns right? Doing admirably but hardly setting the world alight. We've been decent for a couple of years now, yet seem to find it hard to make any significant progress upward ie out of pot flaming 3.

[Charlie Darwin]

They started from the bottom so all of the results they got (including draws against us) were against teams ranked a long way above them, so their gains were exaggerated. They'll probably find their level around 30-40 in a couple of years as their early results get discounted.

[Bottle of Tonic]

ah ya, makes sense that. Thanks to Irelands win on Saturday night I had a hangover that would kill a horse yesterday and I'm not at all back to 100% yet today.

I see Bulgaria are down to pot 4. Big fall from being pot 2 last campaign.

I actually don't follow this ranking craic at all, dunno why I'm getting involved!

[DannyInvincible]

I actually don't follow this ranking craic at all, dunno why I'm getting involved!

Get out before you can. You'll get hooked, I tell you. Hooked!

[Stuttgart88]

Edgar, do the rankings factor in whether Paul McShane was in the team or not? Our win against Scotland must have been even more valuable.

(Sorry Paul, feel guilty about that. Go get 'em cap'n.)

[BonnieShels]

I think my signature says it all, really.

If it was cricket you'd be in Pot 1. ;)

[Cymro]

If it was cricket you'd be in Pot 1. ;)

I know, it brings me so much joy, too. Come on England with your three Lions who represent the England (and Wales) Cricket Board under the acronym ECB! Oh, wait.....

[BonnieShels]

I know, it brings me so much joy, too. Come on England with your three Lions who represent the England (and Wales) Cricket Board under the acronym ECB! Oh, wait.....


No, the W is there... it's just really really really small.

[Montenegrin]

How did Montenegro acheive such a high ranking? They've only been in two campaigns right? Doing admirably but hardly setting the world alight. We've been decent for a couple of years now, yet seem to find it hard to make any significant progress upward ie out of pot flaming 3.


If we had beat Bulgaria,we would be in pot 1 for the next draw.Imagine that :cool: .

[Montenegrin]

I think my signature says it all, really.


Wales is not bad at all,if you look at each player you got.I am very nervous about our next duel in Cardif in September that is so much important to us(in fact,I think you should let us win,to screw the English up :o ).On the other hand,your organization(at the back especially),your courage(cant think of better word) and your team spirit are below average.I watched you against Switzerland where you lost 4-1,but I had feeling that you could even win in that game only if you played a bit stronger and had proper fighting spirit.

[geysir]

If we had beat Bulgaria,we would be in pot 1 for the next draw.Imagine that :cool: .

As they say, remember your friends on your way up, because ....

[Sullivinho]

I wouldn't put it past Montenegro to qualify ala Slovenia back in 2000. I think they were a fairly young team internationally at the time. Jovetic seems to be in the Zahovic mold, I enjoyed his escapades back then.

[elroy]

Montenegro in a play off? yay or nay?

[Fixer82]

I wouldn't fancy meeting them in a play-off

[Charlie Darwin]

I think we could do worse or do better. I think they are roughly around our level.

[geysir]

We gave those kids their break when they were first starting out.

I'd have no qualms about getting the upper hand in a play-off, at least no more than normal.

[BonnieShels]

We gave those kids their break when they were first starting out.

I'd have no qualms about getting the upper hand in a play-off, at least no more than normal.

Qualms or reservations. I reckon we could do them. To be honest I'd rather win the group though. Not even thinking of the play-offs til the Russian game is over.

[Cymro]

Wales is not bad at all,if you look at each player you got.I am very nervous about our next duel in Cardif in September that is so much important to us(in fact,I think you should let us win,to screw the English up :o ).On the other hand,your organization(at the back especially),your courage(cant think of better word) and your team spirit are below average.I watched you against Switzerland where you lost 4-1,but I had feeling that you could even win in that game only if you played a bit stronger and had proper fighting spirit.

Thank you, Montenegrin. I agree, our spirit is rubbish, and our defence is very bad indeed. I wish we were more like Montenegro and played as a team, to our potential, every game. That is what Montenegro have done in this group.

If Montenegro played ROI in a play-off, I would have to bet on Ireland, though. Ireland have the better players overall I think, although Montenegro have some very good individuals too, who are well known to everyone here. Jovetic is quality.

I just think Ireland would have a small advantage. If Given and Keane are fit they are probably worth two goals together. Wish we had them, we'd be a proper team then!

[Cymro]

No, the W is there... it's just really really really small.

Nah, that's a piece of lint. Looks like a W from a distance, though.