Rankings

[BonnieShels]

Wish we had them, we'd be a proper team then!

Ah... the Pan Celtic Union idea strikes again! :)

[Stuttgart88]

Do Montenegrin and Cymro have little "alert" devices installed that bleep when a football forum anywhere in the world mentions Montenego or Wales?

[zero]

So, theoretically, if utilising friendlies for the purpose of anything other than trying to boost our ranking wasn't priority, we should be organising meaningless friendlies against opposition we're certain to beat approaching draw time?

you mean like a friendly tournament featuring the football powerhouses of norn iron, wales and scotland?

actually, i presume given this was a 'tournament' it nevertheless has no greater weighting that normal friendlies. does the same sort of thing apply to stuff like the gold cup?

moving away from world cup rankings and onto uefa coefficient, it will be interesting to see if we are seeded should we end up in a playoff spot. i think this battle is a bit tighter, and there's a chance (i estimate maybe 35% chance but i might be WAY off) we could be.

i'm not clear though on which uefa co-efficient will be used; that as of the start of the qualifying campaign:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_coefficient#National_team_coefficient

or those that will be used for the finals proper:

http://www.football-rankings.info/search/label/euro%202012

i'd imagine the latter, which means we are currently 20th in uefa, with norway catchable? in the current 2nd place standings we'd be fifth i think, but if we caught norway, 4th and seeded.

euro 2012 2nd place teams (with russia speculatively replaced by us)
montenegro (currently auto qualify as best 2nd place team)

seeded:
croatia
czech rep
sweden
norway

unseeded:
ireland
slovenia
belarus
belgium

[Montenegrin]

Do Montenegrin and Cymro have little "alert" devices installed that bleep when a football forum anywhere in the world mentions Montenego or Wales?


Indeed I do!Only for this forum though...

[DannyInvincible]

i'm not clear though on which uefa co-efficient will be used; that as of the start of the qualifying campaign:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_coefficient#National_team_coefficient

or those that will be used for the finals proper:

http://www.football-rankings.info/search/label/euro%202012

I think UEFA decide this once they've worked out their favoured teams in the play-offs.

[French Toasht]

Montenegrin

Just out of interest whats the current situation with Kosovo and a national football team? Didn't they gain independence a few years back. Was just wondering whats the hold up on them establishing a football team?

Also did people notice Bosnia played Romania at the weekend, I thought they were still indefinately suspended from international football, due to the governance of the FA. UEFA must have backed down on that one?

[pineapple stu]

UEFA must have backed down on that one?
Not likely!

Bosnia backed down (http://calvinayre.com/2011/05/26/legal/bosnia-and-herzegovina-comply-with-uefa-and-fifa-demands/) and appointed a single Federation President last week.

[DannyInvincible]

Also did people notice Bosnia played Romania at the weekend, I thought they were still indefinately suspended from international football, due to the governance of the FA. UEFA must have backed down on that one?

They amended their association's constitution and UEFA lifted the ban, so they're fine to play again: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/jun/03/bosnia-herzegovina-fifa-euro-2012

Edit: Or as pineapple stu says. :)

[French Toasht]

Really?

Whos heading up their FA now? I thought that really was an intractable dispute considering the history in the region and was a very arbitrary ruling by FIFA.

[pineapple stu]

I think the two choices were stay as they were and be kicked out of FIFA/UEFA and go bankrupt, or do whatever FIFA/UEFA told them. Not great options either way really. Unsurprisingly, having a national federation at all won out over political stability.

[French Toasht]

A classic example of FIFA being overly meddlesome and officious in intervening in the governance of a national FA, yet a blind eye is casually turned to the widespread corruption in its own ranks.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/gallery/2011/jun/07/fifa-sepp-blatter-gallery

[BonnieShels]

I think UEFA decide this once they've worked out their favoured teams in the play-offs.
Beat me to it ya shoite!


Montenegrin

Just out of interest whats the current situation with Kosovo and a national football team? Didn't they gain independence a few years back. Was just wondering whats the hold up on them establishing a football team?


There's difficulty with Serbia I would say. Serbia continue not to recognise Kosovo's independence as does the Republika Srpska in Bosnia. So I would say that will put the kybosh on any attempt for the elevation to FIFA of the Football Federation of Kosovo.

Interesting article from Nov 2009 on the issue: http://www.playthegame.org/news/detailed/up-to-ten-years-before-international-recognition-of-kosovo-fa-4579.html

[Montenegrin]

Montenegrin

Just out of interest whats the current situation with Kosovo and a national football team? Didn't they gain independence a few years back. Was just wondering whats the hold up on them establishing a football team?

Also did people notice Bosnia played Romania at the weekend, I thought they were still indefinately suspended from international football, due to the governance of the FA. UEFA must have backed down on that one?


Well,Kosovo is an independent country,but not quite so...Most of the European countries recognized it,but on the other hand most of the countries in the world does not,including Russia and China that have veto right in the security council at UN.As the result of this,Kosovo is not a member of the UN and needs permission from Serbia to play competetive international football.Otherwise,FIFA wont allow it.
Situation in Bosnia was well explained by others.

[geysir]

Afaiu, If Serbia FA gave permission, then Kosova could be a full FIFA member regardless of UN recognition.

[French Toasht]

Afaiu, If Serbia FA gave permission, then Kosova could be a full FIFA member regardless of UN recognition.

Do turkeys vote for Christmas?

[DannyInvincible]

Afaiu, If Serbia FA gave permission, then Kosova could be a full FIFA member regardless of UN recognition.

This is correct.


10: Membership

6. An Association in a region which has not yet gained independence may, with the authorisation of the Association in the country on which it is dependent, also apply for admission to FIFA.

Of course, not that it's likely to happen.

[BonnieShels]

Hence we have the Faeroes as a separate FA.

[Eirambler]

moving away from world cup rankings and onto uefa coefficient, it will be interesting to see if we are seeded should we end up in a playoff spot. i think this battle is a bit tighter, and there's a chance (i estimate maybe 35% chance but i might be WAY off) we could be.

i'm not clear though on which uefa co-efficient will be used; that as of the start of the qualifying campaign:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_coefficient#National_team_coefficient

or those that will be used for the finals proper:

http://www.football-rankings.info/search/label/euro%202012

i'd imagine the latter, which means we are currently 20th in uefa, with norway catchable? in the current 2nd place standings we'd be fifth i think, but if we caught norway, 4th and seeded.

euro 2012 2nd place teams (with russia speculatively replaced by us)
montenegro (currently auto qualify as best 2nd place team)

seeded:
croatia
czech rep
sweden
norway

unseeded:
ireland
slovenia
belarus
belgium

The playoff rankings are probably deserving of their own thread, but since everyone is still in 'lets win the group' mode, its maybe too early for one yet.

As far as I know this is the set of rankings that will be used:

http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011

At the moment we're 15th in Europe and have a good chance of being seeded if we end up in the playoffs.

Here are the rankings of the most likely playoff teams with the other possibilities in brackets.

8 Greece (6 Croatia) (17 Israel)
9 Sweden (25 Hungary)
13 Denmark (10 Portugal) (20 Norway)
14 Czech (33 Scotland)

15 Ireland (7 Russia) (12 Slovakia)

18 Turkey (32 Austria) (34 Belgium)
21 Slovenia (19 Serbia) (29 N Ireland)
24 Montenegro (22 Swiss) (31 Bulgaria) (5 England)
26 Romania (28 Belarus) (37 Albania) (23 Bosnia)

[French Toasht]

Edgar

Long shot but any way at all that that win over Italy will sneak us into pot 2?

[swinfordfc]

So after the win against Italy .... we are on 752 points in the Ranking system ...... does that still leaves us in 33rd spot when the rankings come out at the end of the month?

[dantheman]

Edgar

Long shot but any way at all that that win over Italy will sneak us into pot 2?
No! ;-)

[French Toasht]

Well we were tipped to be 33rd after a predicted 3 wins (NI, Scotland & Macedonia) and one loss (Italy). So presumably after a victory against Italy, we have to be higher than 33rd now, still though it would have to be some jump to get us into pot 2.

Edgar, I have been trying to work out the dramatic rise for Norway and am absolutely baffled still. Their position makes no sense when you consider, they were the 2nd placed team with the lowest points in the last campaign and thus missed out on a playoff place. In this campaign, they have beaten Iceland, Cyprus and Portugal, drawn with Denmark and lost to Portugal. Aside from the one victory over Portugal they don't seem to have done anything all that miraculous, to account for their rise to Pot 1.

[Charlie Darwin]

Perhaps they had some dreadful results 4 years ago that were discounted?

[Edgar]

Wales have scraped out of the frying pan into pot 5.
Beating the whipping boys NI, saved their bacon.

Not quite. Faroe Islands beat Estonia and Wales remain in pot 6. I think everyone will hoping to get Faroe from Pot 5 :)


How did Montenegro acheive such a high ranking? They've only been in two campaigns right? Doing admirably but hardly setting the world alight. We've been decent for a couple of years now, yet seem to find it hard to make any significant progress upward ie out of pot flaming 3.

Montenegro will have 915 points in the June and July rankings.

484 points are from only 4 matches, all in the EURO qualifiers: the wins against Switzerland, Bulgaria and Wales and the draw against England.

Define decent. Let's look a bit at Montenegro. They've got 1177.5 points (individual match points) from their win against Bulgaria and 1342.5 (individual match points) from the win against Switzerland - all in the last 12 months.

They also have only 30 matches in the last 4 years.

Ireland, on the other hand, have no matches with more than 1000 points. They do have three over 900: Cyprus twice and Georgia. None of these are in the last 12 months.

You also have 42 matches in the last 4 years, so your points are divided by more matches than Montenegro's points.


Edgar, do the rankings factor in whether Paul McShane was in the team or not? Our win against Scotland must have been even more valuable.

(Sorry Paul, feel guilty about that. Go get 'em cap'n.)

I guess FIFA are working on that :)


Edgar

Long shot but any way at all that that win over Italy will sneak us into pot 2?

No, you're 21st in Europe now, 27 points behind Slovakia, the last team in Pot 2.


Well we were tipped to be 33rd after a predicted 3 wins (NI, Scotland & Macedonia) and one loss (Italy). So presumably after a victory against Italy, we have to be higher than 33rd now, still though it would have to be some jump to get us into pot 2.

Edgar, I have been trying to work out the dramatic rise for Norway and am absolutely baffled still. Their position makes no sense when you consider, they were the 2nd placed team with the lowest points in the last campaign and thus missed out on a playoff place. In this campaign, they have beaten Iceland, Cyprus and Portugal, drawn with Denmark and lost to Portugal. Aside from the one victory over Portugal they don't seem to have done anything all that miraculous, to account for their rise to Pot 1.

Norway. Well, they did beat Portugal (1440 individual match points), Cyprus (1177.5) and Iceland (907.5) in the last 12 months. They also have wins against Scotland and Macedonia between 12 and 24 months ago. When averaged with the other matches, these 5 wins make about 502.5 points of the total 972 Norway will have in June/July.

Cyprus were ranked 35 when Norway won against them in a qualifier.

[DannyInvincible]

No, you're 21st in Europe now, 27 points behind Slovakia, the last team in Pot 2.

That seems painfully close. What would it have taken to make up those 27 points? Can the FAI petition FIFA for a July friendly date with Burkina Faso? :p

[BonnieShels]

That's a good point.

Who reckons that the FAI actually monitors our ranking and its significance.

[Edgar]

You need two wins in July against two teams ranked in the FIFA Top 4. :)

[DannyInvincible]

I see the Elo ratings (http://www.eloratings.net/) have us ranked 20th in the world now in light of our 2-0 victory over Italy.

A few others who we've played recently or have been discussed in this thread for comparison with their FIFA ranking, as of the 18th of May, in brackets:

Italy are 12th (9th);
Russia are 21st (18th);
Norway are 23rd (11th);
Montenegro are 41st (24th);
Scotland are 46th (66th);
Slovakia are 56th (26th);
Burkina Faso are 67th (44th);
Macedonia are 83rd (85th);
Northern Ireland are 88th (65th).

[French Toasht]

I'm not merely saying this because the ELO ranking system is favourable to Ireland, but acrosss the board it seems to be the more equitable system of ranking teams.

For example Scotland are twice the team NI are, yet they are ranked behind them in the FIFA rankings. The ELO system is more realistic in terms of Norway's meteoric rise in the FIFA rankings, considering they havn't beaten anyone of consequence bar Portugal in recent times. Ok the Slovakia ranking in the ELO system is quite harsh, but at the same time, they have had two horrowshows against Andorra recently and were beaten by Armenia.

Delighted to hear Faroes are in pot 5 now. Well done Brian Kerr. I'm trying to think of what a comparable achievement would be with the Irish team, and I would say it would be the equivalent of Ireland reaching the quarter finals of a WC.

[geysir]

And to think, the Faroes conceded 2 goals in injury time to lose to Estonia in Tallinn

[Gather round]

I'm not merely saying this because the ELO ranking system is favourable to Ireland, but acrosss the board it seems to be the more equitable system of ranking teams

Disagree. Elo is based mainly on predicting what will happen next (or being 'realistic', if you prefer) rather than measuring what happened last. So it will always favor bigger/ stronger countries and disadvantage smaller fry even when they pull off surprise wins.


For example Scotland are twice the team NI are, yet they are ranked behind them in the FIFA rankings

Comparable records in WC 2010 qualifying: Scotland 10 points, NI 9 (both from eight games)

And in 2012 qualifying thus far: Scotland 4 points, NI 5 (both from four games of eight).

In games that count towards actual qualification now, rather than merely jockeying for seeding places in two years time, they're just as bad as we are.

[Cymro]

Do Montenegrin and Cymro have little "alert" devices installed that bleep when a football forum anywhere in the world mentions Montenego or Wales?

No, it's my life's mission to make sure I post something about Wales on every national football forum at least once a week. Posting it in relevant topics is just a cover for this massive exercise in spam. Now excuse me while I go and post on fussball.de, foot.fr, calcio.it, futebol.bra, futbol.es, fitba.sco, and soccer.com (sponsored by McDonalds-Coca-Cola-Microsoft).

[ArdeeBhoy]

Disagree. Elo is based mainly on predicting what will happen next (or being 'realistic', if you prefer) rather than measuring what happened last. So it will always favor bigger/ stronger countries and disadvantage smaller fry even when they pull off surprise wins.

And we always thought you liked cr*p late '70's electro-rock bands??
:eek:

In games that count towards actual qualification now, rather than merely jockeying for seeding places in two years time, they're just as bad as we are.
Not sure understand this comment, though the facts of recent performance do confirm that, if that's what you meant....

[Edgar]

I subscribed to two threads regarding the rankings :)

Anyway... here you go again.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (http://www.football-rankings.info/2011/06/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-uefa-pots.html): UEFA pots.

[French Toasht]

The important pot for us is who we draw from Pot 2. If we draw Slovakia, Slovenia or Montenegro, we should be favourites to finish in the top 2. Other than them, we'll have a real scrap on our hands to get a top two finish. Unless of course we draw Norway from Pot 1.

[DannyInvincible]

Even the alphabet is conspiring against Wales. Below San Marino :(

You're not even wrong!


45 Faroe Islands 273
--------------------------------
45 Wales 273

(Although I assume this to be the proper, less fun explanation: "Wales will be tied for 45th (last place in the 5th pot) with the Faroe Islands. Both teams will have 273 points. Wales' unrounded total is smaller than Faroe Islands' total.")

[DannyInvincible]

The important pot for us is who we draw from Pot 2. If we draw Slovakia, Slovenia or Montenegro, we should be favourites to finish in the top 2. Other than them, we'll have a real scrap on our hands to get a top two finish. Unless of course we draw Norway from Pot 1.

Even if we were in pot 2, there are still some teams in pot 3 that you'd be keen to avoid. Admittedly, pot 2 is marginally stronger overall with the likes of France and Serbia within, but Switzerland, Belgium and the Czechs are no walkovers. Belgium will be a genuine force to be reckoned with in a few years. They're already very strong at the back and with the likes of Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku coming through up front, I wouldn't be overly keen on competing with them. Bosnia, Belarus and Hungary also appear to be emergent powers.

[Kingdom]

I'm getting the jinx in early.

If we could avoid the teams in bold from each pot I'd be delighted, and if we got the italic'd teams I'd wet myself:

Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Norway, Greece

France, Mont, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia

Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Georgia, Lithuania, Scotland, North, Austria, Poland

Armenia, Estonia, Cyprus, Finland, Latvia, Moldova, Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroes,

Wales, Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

[geysir]

I
Wales, Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

Iceland does exist.

[Kingdom]

Not when Ejyshshshshshsfokill is finished with it... Mwhahaha!

[SwanVsDalton]

The dream: Norway, Slovenia, Us, Albania, Faroes, San Marino

The nightmare: Spain, France, Us, Romania, Macedonia, Wales.

Always think we're going to get an an England, Ireland, Scotland/NI, Wales group...

[BonnieShels]

Remember that qualifying group where it could've been all 5 of us. In the end it was just ni, England and wales.

Looking over those pots I can see no problems with getting Austria or Finland.

Kingdom, ways your issue with Wales?

Also think they we're gonna get France.

[geysir]

There's no problem with Wales but they might not behave as per their 6th seed ranking, so they have nightmare potential.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Wales are rubbish. Even under Stan, we took four points from them.
Chances must be about once a millennia about drawing those four Brit 'teams'.

Also what's so great about Denmark and Turkey currently?
And all the teams in Pot 4-5 have the potential to cause problems.

[Kingdom]

Remember that qualifying group where it could've been all 5 of us. In the end it was just ni, England and wales.

Looking over those pots I can see no problems with getting Austria or Finland.

Kingdom, ways your issue with Wales?

Also think they we're gonna get France.

The less derbies the better. It's not too long ago we struggled with them in the Millenium.

Wales have done ok underage recently too. They've a few decent players. They're not a bottom pot team. That's pretty much it.
I would be expecting us to beat Finland h + a, but last time out they were decent, and I'm pretty sure they were ok the campaign before. This campaign not so much.

[French Toasht]

The dream: Norway, Slovenia, Us, Albania, Faroes, San Marino

The nightmare: Spain, France, Us, Romania, Macedonia, Wales.

Always think we're going to get an an England, Ireland, Scotland/NI, Wales group...

Albania in the dream group? Really? Remember we had them in the Euro 2004 campaign. Lucky to take a point in Tirana and scraped a last minute winner against them at home. That was the era where, you knew it had all gone tits up when Big Gary Doherty was being thrown forward for the last ten minutes to cause a commotion in the opposition's box.

Without a shadow of a doubt Wales are the worst team we could get in pot 6. Plenty of teams in that pot have amateur players. Whilst you could say San Marino would be a guaranteed 6 points, you could never say that with certainty with Wales.

[Kingdom]

Wales are rubbish. Even under Stan, we took four points from them.

Then surely we should be taking 6 points from them, handily, yet we scraped a 1-0 win in Croker, and weren't much better in Cardiff. Games against local rivals should be avoided, always the potential for a slip-up.


Also what's so great about Denmark and Turkey currently?
Denamrk are serial qualifiers. They've a far better record than us. Turkey have a lot more coming through the ranks than we do. If I'd the choice of getting them in the playoff for Euro 2012 (if we got there) or qual for WC 2014, I'd much prefer now.


And all the teams in Pot 4-5 have the potential to cause problems.

Of course they do, but some have far more potential than others.



Albania in the dream group? Really? Remember we had them in the Euro 2004 campaign. Lucky to take a point in Tirana and scraped a last minute winner against them at home. That was the era where, you knew it had all gone tits up when Big Gary Doherty was being thrown forward for the last ten minutes to cause a commotion in the opposition's box.

Not just then, they're one of a number of the middling to lower ranked countries that have improved immensely.

[SwanVsDalton]

Albania in the dream group? Really? Remember we had them in the Euro 2004 campaign. Lucky to take a point in Tirana and scraped a last minute winner against them at home. That was the era where, you knew it had all gone tits up when Big Gary Doherty was being thrown forward for the last ten minutes to cause a commotion in the opposition's box.

Compared to most of the rest (Bulgaria, Romania, Poland) they are an easier proposition. The best draw from that pot has to be them or Lithuania - most are better sides and I'd rather avoid Georgia or any neighbours. The Lithuanians are always worth the odd scalp. So it is Albania for me.

To be honest the dream is for the French to be expelled, the English to withdraw due to overwhelming self-hatred, and Ireland to find themselves top seeds and inexplicably drawn against sixth seeds only, with the Euro Champ tourney being cancelled in favour of determining a winner post qualifying on the basis of the most points accrued by a team wearing a green shirt. But I doubt that'll happen for a few years yet.

[dantheman]

According to this (http://www.football-rankings.info/2011/06/fifa-ranking-june-2011-preview-iii.html) we are 28th-32nd (depending on Mexico/Chile/USA/Paraguay's results). Is that correct?

NI move up 4 places to 61 (62 if Panama do well) despite dropping 22 ranking points due to massive losses by teams above them (Libya, Guinea, Ecuador, Armenia). They were lucky

[DannyInvincible]

If we'd beaten Slovakia in Zilina, I'm guessing we'd be in pot 2 now? What ifs and all that...