Scotland at the crossroads

[BonnieShels]

There'll be none next year.

The SNP would be mad to throw out another one so soon. If there's another no-vote then that's independence dead for generations.

Sturgeon has a big decision to make about putting it in the Holyrood Manifesto next year which the SNP are going to absolutely walk and end up with a huge majority.

By not putting it in the manifesto it could be the thing that sways middle-Scotland to vote SNP. And then achieveing an overwhelming majority coupled with the 56/59 at Westminster should ensure that there is some mandate in the years to come without explicitly saying so in the manifesto.

Another couple of years of this Tory government and there'll be clamours for independence in Scotland from all sides.

[culloty82]

Not to mention that with SNP control of Holyrood all but assured, nationalists who "lent" them their vote over the last 12 months, might well be inclined to opt for the Greens or the new Scottish ULA next year in order to create a pro-independence opposition.

[BonnieShels]

Not to mention that with SNP control of Holyrood all but assured, nationalists who "lent" them their vote over the last 12 months, might well be inclined to opt for the Greens or the new Scottish ULA next year in order to create a pro-independence opposition.

Maybe from the list. No one is going to back out of voting for the winning team.

ULA?

[BonnieShels]

There'll be none next year.

The SNP would be mad to throw out another one so soon. If there's another no-vote then that's independence dead for generations.

Sturgeon has a big decision to make about putting it in the Holyrood Manifesto next year which the SNP are going to absolutely walk and end up with a huge majority.

By not putting it in the manifesto it could be the thing that sways middle-Scotland to vote SNP. And then achieveing an overwhelming majority coupled with the 56/59 at Westminster should ensure that there is some mandate in the years to come without explicitly saying so in the manifesto.

Another couple of years of this Tory government and there'll be clamours for independence in Scotland from all sides.


Not to mention that with SNP control of Holyrood all but assured, nationalists who "lent" them their vote over the last 12 months, might well be inclined to opt for the Greens or the new Scottish ULA next year in order to create a pro-independence opposition.

Well now... seems like we're gonna get some Indie mwssing this year again...

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0508/786998-scotland-sturgeon-vote/

[culloty82]

She did say before that the only justification for a revote would be Brexit - and though Leave has a narrow lead now, one suspects the status quo will, narrowly, win out ultimately.

[backstothewall]

She did say before that the only justification for a revote would be Brexit - and though Leave has a narrow lead now, one suspects the status quo will, narrowly, win out ultimately.

Which status quo? Membership of the UK, or membership of the EU?

That's what makes this such an interesting aspect of this. They were able to get 46% to vote to overturn the status quo last time. Who knows what they can manage now that the status quo has been shattered.

[BonnieShels]

Membership of the EU.

I have been nothing but impressed with Sturgeon since she took over leadership of the SNP and Scotland but she has knocked it out of the park on this.

Her speech last Friday was one of the most spectacularly weighty, intentioned and yet nuanced speeches I have ever heard in my life.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I can't see how Scotland can reject independence again. It would be the most bizarre volte face, after electing so many SNP MP's and voting Remain.

[BonnieShels]

They won't. The literal only barrier to independence is being able to have the second referendum. And there will be all out war trying to get that to happen.

[Wolfman]

Never say never. Here's to an independent Scotland and a UI, might be the only good thing to come out of this Brexit nonsense.

[peadar1987]

I dunno, there are a lot of stupid people in the UK.

"1.7 million voting to remain in the EU doesn't overrule 2 million voting to stay in the UK" (ignoring the fact that the electorate was far smaller for the EU referendum due to EU citizens and 16/17 year olds not being able to vote. And the fact that EU membership was probably a big factor in many of those 2 million's choice the first time round.

"The UK voted to leave the EU and Scotland is part of the UK so Scotland voted to leave the EU" (Yeah, seriously)

"You can't just break up the country whenever something doesn't go your way" (Said by people who wanted to break up the EU when things didn't go their way)

Unfortunately I see a lot of people buying into these ideas.

My main concern is that Spain in their infinite ****tery over Catalunya will veto Scottish membership of the EU just to threaten the legitimate, democratic independence movement there. I don't know enough about the workings of the EU to know if there is anything the other 26 member states could do to block the veto, or threaten/bribe Spain into dropping their opposition.

[osarusan]

My main concern is that Spain in their infinite ****tery over Catalunya will veto Scottish membership of the EU just to threaten the legitimate, democratic independence movement there. I don't know enough about the workings of the EU to know if there is anything the other 26 member states could do to block the veto, or threaten/bribe Spain into dropping their opposition.
Rajoy has already pretty much said that:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/29/nicola-sturgeons-hopes-of-keeping-scotland-in-eu-dashed-by-spani/

[peadar1987]

Rajoy has already pretty much said that:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/29/nicola-sturgeons-hopes-of-keeping-scotland-in-eu-dashed-by-spani/

Anti-democratic gob****e!

[backstothewall]

He's posturing. He has to say that or Catalonia would explode. This will all end in tears for him.

[BonnieShels]

Here we go...


Late 2018 could be best time for new Scottish referendum, says Sturgeon

Nicola Sturgeon has agreed that autumn 2018 could be “the commonsense time” to hold a second Scottish independence referendum if she decides to call one.

The first minister told a BBC documentary on Brexit the best time for staging it would be once the shape of the UK’s deal to leave the EU became clear. But Sturgeon stressed she had not yet made that decision.

In a carefully worded answer, Sturgeon implied she agreed with leading nationalists, including her predecessor, Alex Salmond, who believe autumn 2018 would be the ideal time for a vote.

Hard Brexit is making the case for Scottish independence
John Harris
John Harris Read more
She did not use that precise date in the advance extracts released by the BBC but asked about that proposed time scale, she said: “Within that window, I guess, of when the outline of a UK deal becomes clear and the UK exiting the EU, I think would be commonsense time for Scotland to have that choice, if that is the road we choose to go down.”

Asked whether she was ruling out autumn 2018, the first minister added: “I’m not ruling anything out, no.”

Sturgeon’s response confirms that her strategy will be to stage the referendum while the UK is still legally inside the EU to strengthen her claim that Scotland should be allowed to remain a member.


Theresa May lays down independence vote challenge to Nicola Sturgeon
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She believes that would involve an easier transition to becoming a new member state; some supporters of that suggest Scotland could try to take over the UK’s membership.

There is a strong belief inside the Scottish National party that waiting until after the UK has left will make re-entry harder and more complex. But EU experts have warned it could still take up to four years for Scotland’s membership to be agreed.

Sturgeon’s advisers say she is poised to make a speech on her referendum strategy within days of article 50 being triggered later this month, in which she could confirm she will table legislation in the Scottish parliament enabling a referendum.

The interview was broadcast as an opinion poll put Sturgeon closer to winning the majority support she needs to be confident she can win. An Ipsos-Mori poll for STV released on Thursday found that excluding “don’t knows”, the yes vote had increased to 49% – the highest level recently found by a leading polling organisation.

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But the poll also found less than half of voters wanted an independent Scotland to be a full EU member, at 48%, with 27% in favour of membership of the single market but without full EU membership, and 17% saying Scotland would remain outside the EU and the single market.

Sturgeon will need to ask Westminster for the legal power to stage it, in a section 30 order under the Scotland Act, which would provoke a further battle with the UK government on the timing of the vote and the question it will ask.

Although the SNP stages its spring conference in Aberdeen next week, Sturgeon is expected to choose a neutral venue for that speech to avoid alienating non-nationalist voters she hopes to persuade to back independence in Europe.

Senior Tories have suggested that Theresa May will only allow a referendum after the UK has left the EU and the terms of the UK’s deal was agreed. Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Tory leader, said last week the Scottish electorate needed to know what they were voting for and against.


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May issued a direct challenge to Sturgeon in a speech last week to the Scottish Tories when she rejected the first minister’s demands for a special deal for Scotland giving enhanced access to the single market, and suggested there would only be a limited transfer of EU powers to Holyrood.

Her opponents have repeatedly accused Sturgeon of bluffing because Scotland’s finances have been hit very hard by the collapse in North Sea oil prices, and Scottish exports to the EU are plateauing, worth only a quarter of its sales within the rest of the UK.

There is no answer yet to the challenging question of which currency an independent Scotland would use, such as a new one, adopting sterling, or indeed if it would be expected to adopt the euro.

Scottish ministers insist they have a mandate to call the referendum because their 2016 manifesto made clear it would be justified if there was “a significant or material change” in Scotland’s constitutional circumstances, such as a vote to leave the EU.

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Scotland voted heavily to retain EU membership in the referendum, by 62% to 38%, while voters in England and Wales opted to leave.

Sturgeon said Tory ministers who believed she was bluffing were wrong. “I’m not and I never have been,” she told the BBC. “I always think that says more about them than it says about me because it suggests that our politicians at Westminster and all the rest of it think that Brexit is some kind of game.”

But Sturgeon is at risk of breaching the first test set out in the manifesto that Holyrood should “have the right to hold another referendum if there is clear and sustained evidence that independence has become the preferred option of a majority of the Scottish people”.
She told the SNP when she launched that manifesto in April 2016 “setting the date for a referendum before a majority of the Scottish people have been persuaded that independence [is] the best future for our country is the wrong way round”.

No opinion poll since July 2016 has given Sturgeon that majority. Average support for independence sits at about 45% and only about a third of Scottish voters favour staging a referendum before Brexit takes place.

At the same time, about a third of SNP voters supported leaving the EU, including the former health secretary, Alex Neil. That increases the challenge for Sturgeon to persuade them to support retaining EU membership while also finding enough non-nationalist voters to back independence instead of those SNP voters who abstain or vote no at a referendum.

Earlier this week Jim Sillars, the Eurosceptic former deputy leader of the SNP, said he would abstain as would many other SNP supporters. He said it would be foolish to stage a referendum before Brexit.

“I cannot conceive of the yes movement winning in 2018 in the middle of [Brexit] negotiations. We would be subject to the cry from Westminster: ‘Why don’t you wait to see what the deal is?’” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/09/late-2018-could-be-best-time-for-new-scottish-referendum-says-sturgeon

---

I know Sturgeon has been on about this since the Brexit Ref. But I reckon after May's bluff (ha) at the ScotCUNionisT Árd Fheis is the official start for this.

Ireland should get some skin in this game. Another ref defeat for the SNP will damage our UI aspirations a tad.

[BonnieShels]

Sturgeon has called for a second referendum.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/mar/13/article-50-commons-lords-brexit-sturgeon-speech-corbyn-clarifies-his-position-on-second-scottish-independence-referendum-saying-hes-opposed-politics-live

[backstothewall]

My main concern is that Spain in their infinite ****tery over Catalunya will veto Scottish membership of the EU just to threaten the legitimate, democratic independence movement there. I don't know enough about the workings of the EU to know if there is anything the other 26 member states could do to block the veto, or threaten/bribe Spain into dropping their opposition.

Will Scotland want to join though? Trade barriers with England would be as bad for Scotland as trade barriers with the EU.

An independent Scotland might be best off agreeing access to the common market without full membership, if they are able to also agree free trade with rUK.

[BonnieShels]

It's not an easy calculation to make though.

Exports from Scotland that leave via English ports do not count as part of Scot-EU trade. The proportionality is in fact much higher and would only grow in the event of and Indy Scotland being in the EU or the EEA etc

[BonnieShels]

Callum McCaig cracked a whopper today at Theresa May, absolutely wonderful timing:

It's at the very end of the video. The whole thing is worth a watch but defo skip ahead if ya need to.


https://www.facebook.com/theSNP/videos/10155217665504078/

[DannyInvincible]

Callum McCaig cracked a whopper today at Theresa May, absolutely wonderful timing:

It's at the very end of the video. The whole thing is worth a watch but defo skip ahead if ya need to.


https://www.facebook.com/theSNP/videos/10155217665504078/

Zinger!

[BonnieShels]

I must have watched it a good ten times. Unreal comic timing.

[culloty82]

So May decides to block a referendum, at least until after Brexit - seems strange, given that if anything the No campaign had the momentum, whereas this decision plays into Sturgeon's hands.

[BonnieShels]

You equate that with May knowing what she's doing. By far the most out-of-their-depth head of government I've ever seen. Makes Cowen look like Lemass.

[CraftyToePoke]

Liked this, and pretty on the money I feel, and indeed one of the things I find most tedious in the time I spend in England is the huge blind spot in their wiling / ability to process a viewpoint differing to theirs.


Brexit unleashed an English nationalism that has damaged the union with Scotland for good
As a system of beliefs the new nationalism is much more appropriate to an English nation state than to a more diverse United Kingdom






The confrontation between English and Scottish nationalism is not going to evaporate
Brexit is English nationalism made flesh, but the English underrate its destructive potential as a form of communal identity. Concepts like “nationalism” and “self-determination” have traditionally been seen as something that happens to foreigners. An English failing today is an inability to recognise the egocentricity implicit in such nationalism and the extent to which it alienates and invites confrontation with other nations in the British Isles and beyond.



A classic example of this blindness to the consequences of this new type of nationalism came this week when Theresa May denounced Nicola Sturgeon for “playing politics with the future of our country” in demanding a second referendum on Scottish independence. This immediately begs the question about the nature and location of this “country” to which such uncritical loyalty is due. If the state in question is the UK, then why do the advocates of Brexit ignore the opposition – and take for granted the compliance – of Scotland and Northern Ireland in leaving the EU?


It is worth recalling the degree to which British politics was divided and poisoned by fierce disputes over Irish independence for the whole of the nineteenth century and early twentieth century, right up to the moment that Ireland achieved self-determination in 1921. What used to be called “the Irish Question” has now been reborn as an all-consuming issue by “the Scottish Question” and, whatever the timing and outcome of a second Scottish referendum, it is not going to go away. Supposing that Theresa May really believes, as her patronising rejection of another poll in Scotland might suggest, that “the Scottish Question” can be indefinitely delayed, then she will be joining a long dismal list of British leaders down the centuries who made the same mistake about Ireland.


English politicians have frequently had a tin ear when it comes to other people’s nationalism, imagining that it can be satisfied by material concessions or rebutted by arguments about independence inflicting unacceptable economic damage. English people often have an equally muddled or myopic vision of their own nationalism, using the terms “English” and “British” as if they were synonymous or marked a distinction of no great account. They therefore do not see how their nationalism has changed significantly in the last few years and is making the continuation of the UK less and less likely. The transformation is also obscured because the ingredients of nationalist identity are in any case hazy since a successful nationalist movement becomes the vehicle for all sorts of grievances and protests.

British nationalism was in the past more fluid than Irish or continental nationalism because it did not face such intense pressures. It needed to be adaptable and inclusive enough to meet the needs of empire and a post-imperial world. It was primarily territorial within the island of Britain, rather than ethnic, religious or linguistic, and was so successful and self-confident that it did not closely define exactly what made somebody British. Strident assertions by Ulster Protestants about their “Britishness” sounded foreign and rather embarrassing to people in the rest of the UK.

The new English nationalism that surfaced so strongly during the Brexit campaign is, ironically, much closer to continental traditions of nationalism. It is much more ethnically and culturally exclusive than the English/British tradition, which developed when British politics stabilised after prolonged turmoil and civil war at the beginning of the eighteenth century.

What makes the new English nationalism so dangerous post-Brexit is that it is deeply felt but incoherent and comes with little self-knowledge. It is more dangerous than the elephant in the room, whose presence nobody will acknowledge, because in this case the elephant is scarcely aware of its own bulk and impact upon others. As a system of beliefs the new nationalism is much more appropriate to an English nation state than to a more diverse United Kingdom. Yet there is genuine bafflement among English people when the Scots apply the same arguments as Brexiters used to justify leaving the EU to justify Scottish independence. It takes a good deal of cheek for Theresa May, as she initiates Britain’s withdrawal from the EU – the consequences of which even its protagonists admit nobody knows – to accuse Nicola Sturgeon of setting “Scotland on a course for more uncertainty and division, creating huge uncertainty.”


It should be quickly said that there is nothing wrong with there being an English nation state. The left tends to denigrate or suspect nationalism as a mask for racism or, at best, a diversion from more important social and political issues. It can be both, but nationalism has also been the essential glue for progressive and liberal movements since the American War of Independence. If it has fallen into the hands of the xenophobic right in England and the US in recent years, that is the fault of those who saw it as illegitimate, obsolete and irrelevant in a globalising world.

Because the new nationalism sees itself in a vague way as seeking to return to a mythical England, which seems to have had its terminal date in about 1960, it is not good at seeing that its project is new and different from what went before. The old British state, as it developed from the end of the seventeenth century, was known – and often detested by other states – for its acute sense of its own interests. The new English nation state stretching from the Channel to the Tweed seems to have little idea of its own strengths and weaknesses and will be much less capable of charting an independent course in the world, whatever its pretensions “to be taking back control”.

One of the curiosities of the Brexit referendum was that, while the Leaves frequently beat the patriotic drum and spoke of the defeat of the Spanish Armada in 1588 and the Battle of Britain in 1940, they showed little interest in or knowledge of history. Before the eighteenth century, English governments spent much of their energies and resources fighting the Scots, Irish and Welsh. In the years before Agincourt, Henry V learned to be a soldier suppressing Welsh uprisings. Scottish and Irish rebellions played a central role in precipitating and determining the outcome of the English Civil War. An end to this disunity through repression or conciliation launched Britain as a great power. A return to instability in relations between the nations living in the British Isles will have the opposite effect.

Britain is already weaker as a state than it was two years ago because its government is wholly preoccupied with Brexit and the prospect of Scottish secession from the UK. All other pressing problems facing the country must wait, possibly for decades, until these issues are dealt with. The break-up of Britain is not something that may or may not happen as the result of a second referendum, but is already upon us. The confrontation between English and Scottish nationalism is not going to moderate or evaporate. The one certainty is that “The Scottish Question” and Brexit have come together to destabilise Britain for years to come.

[DannyInvincible]

'Kevin McKenna: Tories have gift-wrapped Sturgeon victory in next referendum': http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15298467.Kevin_McKenna__Tories_have_gift_wrapped_S turgeon_victory_in_next_referendum/

[osarusan]

SNP took a bit of a hiding...still very clearly the biggest party, but lost 21 seats.

[Mr A]

Well since they had virtually all the seats the only way was down from there. Still a decent result even if the losses will smart.

[BonnieShels]

It's no bad thing that they lost those seats tbf. Only problem is that Salmond and Robertson were among them.

Will keep them more focused. Sturgeon made the right call with the indyref2, she wasn't to know that May would call an election.

---

Catalonia having indyref in October...

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/catalonia-announces-october-1st-date-for-independence-referendum-1.3113600

[TheBoss]

Its slightly difficult to understand the election in Scotland. You just don't change your vote from Left Wing Nationalist to Right Wing Unionist, makes no sense. What looks to have happened is that SNP voters stayed at home rather than voted probably expecting a comfortable win for their party, turnout was 5% less and some transferred to Labour. In relation to the Tories, it seems they started coming out to vote this time around instead of not voting in the last election. I think the next election will be true indicator, both sides will on be alert then after this result.

[BonnieShels]

Its slightly difficult to understand the election in Scotland. You just don't change your vote from Left Wing Nationalist to Right Wing Unionist, makes no sense. What looks to have happened is that SNP voters stayed at home rather than voted probably expecting a comfortable win for their party, turnout was 5% less and some transferred to Labour. In relation to the Tories, it seems they started coming out to vote this time around instead of not voting in the last election. I think the next election will be true indicator, both sides will on be alert then after this result.

That's actually the best reading of the Scottish results tat I have heard. Kudos.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Round 2 then?

[John83]

I assume Boris would have to be dragged kicking and screaming into a referendum. In general, surely any British PM for quite some time is going to be wise to the risks of running a referendum they could lose, so how does Scotland make this happen? Mass demonstrations? I don't see any appetite for that.

[backstothewall]

In general, surely any British PM for quite some time is going to be wise to the risks of running a referendum they could lose, so how does Scotland make this happen?

I wonder has anyone considered taking over a post office...

[John83]

I wonder has anyone considered taking over a post office...
:)

I don't see that happening for now. Not enough unrest. When's the last time it happened in a Western democracy anyway? The ballot box is a big pressure valve.

[pineapple stu]

Not enough telegrams being sent these days either in fairness.

I wonder how comparable the scenes at the Capitol were to the GPO?

[John83]

Not enough telegrams being sent these days either in fairness.
The last telegraph office only closed in India about a decade or so ago!


I wonder how comparable the scenes at the Capitol were to the GPO?
Maybe an interesting comparison, and maybe a valid answer to the question I asked. I think there's a significant difference though between an attempt to overthrow an external yoke and an internal power grab, at least in the prospects for a stable democracy afterwards. The FPTP system the US uses has seriously undermined their elections as a pressure valve - you don't vote for who you want in power, you vote for the less ****e of two options - so I barely consider them a functional democracy anyway. People underestimate how much the Greens, Labour, PDs, PBP, Democratic Left, Social Democrats, etc., even Sinn Fein have been a stabilising force here. They all act to drag the policies of FF and FG towards more populist positions for fear of having their vote eroded. I won't say it keeps them honest, but let's just say you don't have to imagine how much worse they'd be if they didn't have those pressures on them.

[pineapple stu]

Yeah, America can't declare independence from itself, so it's not directly comparable, but I think there's enough to conflate the two still. The GPO was seized as the comms hub here; that's irrelevant these days and a more symbolic place would be taken instead (such as the Capitol)

It's not going to happen any time soon in Scotland of course.

[backstothewall]

Yeah, America can't declare independence from itself, so it's not directly comparable, but I think there's enough to conflate the two still. The GPO was seized as the comms hub here; that's irrelevant these days and a more symbolic place would be taken instead (such as the Capitol)

The strategic place to go after would be Faslane Navy Base. Holding a load of nukes hostage strengthens your bargaining position like nothing else.