View Full Version : Election 2011 - Polling Day Announcement Poll
One thing about Croke Park is that while no one gets sacked that's not to say that numbers won't be reduced via natural attrition and redundancies.
I'd be for giving the deal a chance to work- but if after 6 months it isn't then it should be revisited.
Was it not the unions that needed to implement the changes and reforms and didnt? If I am wrong aplogogies.
It's up to the unions to come to agreement with Management on the implemention of changes. Public sector management were to propose changes to a Dept of Finance group, who'd then prioritise changes to give cost savings. So what of those changes been brought forward that have failed to be implemented by Unions and staff? Feck all, that's what. That's another Lenihan failure, as well as the other line Ministers as they are the ultimate managers.
Even the attempt to undermine the agreement by leaking about banking time turned out to be a nonstory (the CPSU wouldn't agree to that without agreement on privledge days, which was all subsequently agreed without much issue).
I've also said before on other threads, net pay in the public sector is going down disproportionally anyway despite Croke Park - the treatment of the compulsory pension levy for example.
horton
26/01/2011, 8:55 PM
Granted I haven't been fully following this forum since I registered, but I'm surprised by the popularity of Sinn Fein. Is it just an anti-FF thing or do Sinn Fein really have that much support in the Republic? For anyone in Louth, how is Gerry Adams popularity compared to others running in the election? To me(this might be a bit controversial) their biggest selling point in the North is that they focus on being the "republican party" and talk up their United Ireland beliefs etc. Having read their manifestos every election, there is alot I completely disagree with. Unless their southern manifesto is completely different, I would have assumed they would have difficulty gaining popularity in the Republic based solely on what their manifesto promises? Do they talk up their Tiocfaidh ar la profile?
ArdeeBhoy
26/01/2011, 11:24 PM
Slightly different level of criminality there. You don't see FF or FG hanging around with murderers of Gardai etc etc.
Seeing as they haven't taken the state to the point of economic meltdown, am willing to overlook that for now!
Also, why is this 'poll' closing on the 1st of Feb?? Surely it should be left up till election date, when the real polls close.
Magicme
26/01/2011, 11:34 PM
Just found out we have a labour candidate. We also seem to have a right wing loon who is independent but ran in mulhuddart as a pd then ind then fg and was involved in unionism in norn iron too. luckily he hasnt a chance.
Lim till i die
27/01/2011, 12:40 AM
Slightly different level of criminality there. You don't see FF or FG hanging around with murderers of Gardai etc etc.
Which is worse, playing golf with Seanie Fitz or giving Pearse McCauley a bit of a cuddle.
Very debatable imho.
Oh, and don't forget that SF voted for the bank guarantee.
Just copied and pasted from the other thread:
This is a slight twisting of events which has been peddled by the other parties since it happened. (in particular a terrified Labour) My understanding is Sinn Fein agreed to back the guarantee as an emergency measure but once the detail was revealed and the banks were found to be telling porkies they then withdrew their support and voted against the bill ratifying the Gaurantee, some weeks later??
Even if this isn't the case and Sinn Fein are being duplicitous, is it any less honest than Labours voting against the guarantee before hopping into the finance bill bed??
FF's(and the PDs tbf) economic policies ruined the country.
Labour gave the people of Donegal SW Frank "8 euro bonds" McBrearty as their by election candidate.
I don't think any one party has the monopoly on economic stoopid.
Apologies for the laziness but I think this bit of spin needs to be challenged wherever it comes up.
When the Bank Guarantee was brought before the Dail Labour voted against because the liability was potentially so big and the information was not complete- this was the right call. This was the decision in my opinion that lead to the extent of the problems later and to IMF country. An Labour got it right, which is one of the main reasons I'll be voting for them.
And Labour voted against the finance bill- the only difference from normal years was that the debate and procedure was fast-tracked. Most of it had be voted into place before Christmas in any case and would be difficult to reverse mid year. I'd still expect the new government to tinker with some of the details though.
On McBrearty- I entirely agree. I cannot understand why this idiot is on the ticket. He's going to cost Labour a hell of a lot of votes in Donegal, even in Donegal NE. Stupid, stupid selection.
On the comments indicating that people are comfortable with SF's murky past (and present) and the fact that they haven't brought the country to economic meltdown- I think that's probably because they've never had the chance. I agree that it was FF and the PDs that ran the country into the ground, but personally I don't see that is a reason to turn to the extreme left. Certainly when it first clear that the British government would be cutting the block grant to NI the SF reaction was not inspiring- they simply hoped it would go away if they pleaded the special case enough. It didn't work.
On the Michael Martin thing- I think he will help FF stave off total meltdown. He may have been party to the country being run into the ground but he can communicate and debate well and doesn't inspire the same level of anger as Cowen does. If he performs well between now and the election I think they'll save a few seats they might otherwise have lost.
This is a slight twisting of events which has been peddled by the other parties since it happened. (in particular a terrified Labour) My understanding is Sinn Fein agreed to back the guarantee as an emergency measure but once the detail was revealed and the banks were found to be telling porkies they then withdrew their support and voted against the bill ratifying the Gaurantee, some weeks later??
Even if this isn't the case and Sinn Fein are being duplicitous, is it any less honest than Labours voting against the guarantee before hopping into the finance bill bed??
That's basically the FG stance too - that they voted for it, but were subsequently against when they found out the scope - i.e. attempt to shut the stable door after the horse has bolted. The Labour policy was to not write the blank cheque without knowing the cost of the "cheapest bailout in the world". SF are in the same position as FG on the guarantee.
Don't agree with the Finance Bill - it's all about the election date. FF would still be messing around now if it wasn't for clearing the decks forced on them by Labour and FG.
I do agree that McBreaty isn't a good candidate, but he is an elected councillor. It's not like the parachuted him in specifically for the byelection. I've no idea how he played or will play locally, but he obviously won't have the same national profile in a general election.
Lim till i die
27/01/2011, 3:58 PM
And Labour voted against the finance bill- the only difference from normal years was that the debate and procedure was fast-tracked. Most of it had be voted into place before Christmas in any case and would be difficult to reverse mid year. I'd still expect the new government to tinker with some of the details though.
What have Labour said they don't like about the finance bill and what are they specifically going to change?? I'm not being snippy I just genuinely haven't heard it.
Also the next government is going to be dominated by Fine Gael unless Eamon pulls a drastic stroke.
On McBrearty- I entirely agree. I cannot understand why this idiot is on the ticket. He's going to cost Labour a hell of a lot of votes in Donegal, even in Donegal NE. Stupid, stupid selection.
How do you feel about the likes of Mae Sexton being selected?? Serial failure and D4 righteous liberalism poster child Ivana Backic (sp? sorry to lazy to look it up :) ) being parachuted in to gain a seat off Gilmores back??
On the comments indicating that people are comfortable with SF's murky past (and present)
I was just asking the question which is worse, in my own personal opinion the corruption in this country has brought far more misery to far more people than the murder of a single solitary guard. Now obviously as you go further up the North of the country I'd assume feelings about Sinn Fein become more polarised one way or the other but it doesn't affect me. I do think that the majority of Irish people probably still consider the Shinners worse and they remain untouchable to an awful lot of middle class lovie types, which is partially why I'm considering voting for them for the first time, I think the very fact that they are so toxic will keep them honest in working for the interests of lower class people, in short they haven't as much to gain from a Labour style sell out as the votes aren't there.
It also raises as issue around just when it is ok to bring ex paramilitaries in from the cold?? Should their be an official timetable set?? Most of the Labour front bench have had what 25 years??
Certainly when it first clear that the British government would be cutting the block grant to NI the SF reaction was not inspiring- they simply hoped it would go away if they pleaded the special case enough. It didn't work.
Sinn Fein have been attacked quite a lot down here for preaching one thing while accepting budget cuts in the North but this is fairly disingenuous aswell imho as what alternative was open to them?? Bring down the power sharing executive?!
But it's a totally expected line of attack from a political establishment in the South which spent decades convincing the likes of Ian Paisley and the Northern Loyalists that Sinn Fein was good enough for them while maintaining they weren't good enough for government in the south.
SF are in the same position as FG on the guarantee.
A Fine Gael which will dominate the next government. What kind of concessions are Labour looking for??
Don't agree with the Finance Bill - it's all about the election date. FF would still be messing around now if it wasn't for clearing the decks forced on them by Labour and FG.
I genuinely think the Yellows were on the brink anyway, there was tensions in the party between the no hopers (Gormley) and the people who still had a slight chance of holding a seat (Ryan) The No Confidence motion would have been interesting but ultimately we'll never know either way.
What parts of the Finance Bill are Labour opposed to and what changes will they be looking for??
shantykelly
27/01/2011, 5:55 PM
Certainly when it first clear that the British government would be cutting the block grant to NI the SF reaction was not inspiring- they simply hoped it would go away if they pleaded the special case enough. It didn't work.
slightly off topic, but that was the reaction of nearly all the parties. they are completely at sea when it comes to normal, everyday political governance. Not really fair to single them out for this when their partners in government in the north are no different. Border issue aside, I would imagine that Sinn Fein members/politicians in the republic would be a wee bit more clued in as to how a country actually works without semtex and bank robberies.
slightly off topic, but that was the reaction of nearly all the parties. they are completely at sea when it comes to normal, everyday political governance. Not really fair to single them out for this when their partners in government in the north are no different. Border issue aside, I would imagine that Sinn Fein members/politicians in the republic would be a wee bit more clued in as to how a country actually works without semtex and bank robberies.
I seem to recall that the DUP cottoned on a lot quicker that it was time to start looking at where money could be saved, and were attacked by SF for doing so. The idea that the grant would be left untouched during a time of massive cutbacks was ridiculous.
holidaysong
29/01/2011, 10:43 AM
The Socialist Party are running under the banner of the United Left Alliance in this election, along with People Before Profit. Not sure how it'll appear on the ballot paper though.
Anyway, I'll give my first and second preferences to the ULA candidate in this constituency (Dublin SE) and the Independent Mannix Flynn (who I think has a good chance of getting elected), although maybe not in that order. My 'vote' will probably end up with Labour though after eliminations.
Three seats are a shoe in: 1 FF (Chris Andrews), 1 FG (Lucinda Creighton), 1 Lab (Ruairí Quinn).
The fourth seat then is a battle between Kevin Humphreys (2nd Labour), Mannix Flynn (Ind) and John Gormley (Green).
I think Humphreys will just edge it ahead of Flynn for the fourth seat. As always. transfers will be key for that final seat. Gormley's lack of transfers will be his undoing.
BonnieShels
29/01/2011, 12:23 PM
As the ULA aren't a party the individual members will appear under an SP logo if they are members of SP etc. I am unsure as to whether the PBPA have registered as a party at this stage because I remember that their candidates last time out were listed as Indos.
One thing though if the ULA is an alliance and the pbp is an alliance exactly whats the point of an alliance of an alliance?
Heading to the launch of their campaign out in Dún Laoghaire on Wednesday. That should be fun.
Rasputin
29/01/2011, 12:42 PM
Slightly different level of criminality there. You don't see FF or FG hanging around with murderers of Gardai etc etc.
Of course not, you just see the likes of FF collapsing our country through utter corruption with developers, banks and big business.
The level of criminality which has brought this state to its knees.
It wasnt so long ago FF were hanging out with "murderers" or FG members proping up a quasi-facist regime.
Provisional Sinn Fein is positively clean in comparison to the dirt under the FF and FG rugs.
BonnieShels
29/01/2011, 6:48 PM
RedC/SBP: FG 33% -1 Lab 21% -2 FF 16% -1% SF 13% -1 Greens 2% Ind 15% +5
culloty82
29/01/2011, 7:08 PM
Would be interesting to see how much of the 15% can be credited to United Left - it's surely time they were classed separately in the polls.
osarusan
31/01/2011, 3:35 PM
I know this isn't really related to the thread, but it's not worth its own thread - Michael Lowry had taken Sam Smyth to court over Smyth calling him a liar and a cheat, but today a judge ruled that Lowry had no reasonable defence to those claims. Love it!
I think Lowry wanted a summary judgement based on his assertion that Smyth had no grounds for reasonable defence. The judge ruled that it will go forward for a full hearing.
Still good news of course- but Lowry could conceivably win this yet.
osarusan
31/01/2011, 4:32 PM
My story's better.
BonnieShels
31/01/2011, 8:03 PM
That's great news ne'er a better man to lose a defamation case.
What's even better is this coupled with Labours implosion has made It a good day.
ArdeeBhoy
01/02/2011, 3:37 PM
Why is the poll closed???
Not as if it has to be kept open for longer. And unlike reality, you can vote only once....
John83
01/02/2011, 3:47 PM
Why is the poll closed???
So it represents a snapshot of opinion around the time the GE was called.
Why is the poll closed???
Because it descended into farce- somebody said they'd vote FF.
:)
dahamsta
01/02/2011, 4:53 PM
I set it to close automatically at the end of the month, for the reason John83 stated. Otherwise it would be nonsense, representing nothing.
I'll post another poll when the current nonsense has followed its course and we're into proper campaign time.
ArdeeBhoy
01/02/2011, 10:49 PM
Fair enough?
But what is now then??
dahamsta
02/02/2011, 10:23 AM
What is what now?
culloty82
02/02/2011, 11:21 AM
RedC poll:
FG 37% (+4)
Lab 19% (-2)
FF 18% (+2)
SF 12% (-1)
Ind 11% (-4)
GP 3% (0)
Looks like we're going to funk it again.
BonnieShels
02/02/2011, 12:48 PM
Who's we?
culloty82
02/02/2011, 2:53 PM
Just generally, if it looks like people are going to switch back to FF all because of a change of leader.
BonnieShels
02/02/2011, 3:39 PM
It's margin of error stuff. Wouldn't be to concerned. When FG hit 40%, thats when the fun starts.
Verdebianco
03/02/2011, 4:38 AM
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSY0m4sF9vSnyyoxGeyGvAdsWzACeySZ UmU_r_Ux5HHko3RAfrbqQ
If only Fine Gael would get their heads outta the clouds!
ArdeeBhoy
03/02/2011, 1:48 PM
What is what now?
The election campaign has, er, started. As in of now and on the 1st Feb. That's all.
dahamsta
03/02/2011, 1:59 PM
And what's happening at the moment is "nonsense". When the guff settles down, I'll post a new poll.
ArdeeBhoy
03/02/2011, 3:12 PM
Largely agree but all election campaigns are 'nonsense'. Hence my observation.
dahamsta
03/02/2011, 5:16 PM
It's all nonsense, but the start of a campaign is complete and utter nonsense. Like I said, I'll post a poll later. Can we stop now please? I'm so bored with this conversation I might actually die.
It's all nonsense, but the start of a campaign is complete and utter nonsense. Like I said, I'll post a poll later. Can we stop now please? I'm so bored with this conversation I might actually die.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/__1gFkyoB2eU/S6AFeawufqI/AAAAAAAABIE/pzhUrlub1RA/s320/dead_hamster.jpg
dahamsta
03/02/2011, 10:36 PM
heh heh
culloty82
04/02/2011, 1:20 PM
Some of the independents have come together under the banner "New Vision" (http://newvision.ie/wordpress/), mind you, going by their work-in-progress website and the fact that their only candidate with a realistic hope of election is Luke "Ming the Merciless" Flanagan, they seem a non-starter already, even with David McWilliams backing.
Disappointed to see Ming associate with people like McGuirk - wouldn't have imagined they were "like minded", especially on social issues. On McGuirk, I see his "new vision" on not saving zombie financial institutions doesn't stretch to insurance companies that are based in his own consitituency.
Enda saying he won't have anything to do with "any programme involving Vincent Browne"
Inspiring stuff
Real ale Madrid
04/02/2011, 3:42 PM
That's because VB said that Kenny should "take a bottle of whiskey and a gun into a dark room"
Equally inspiring.
Browne isn't trying to convince people he can lead a nation...
Is Kenny going to avoid everyone who says bad things about him?
Real ale Madrid
04/02/2011, 3:58 PM
To be fair to Kenny - there's bad things and there's an insinuation that he should end his own life. No matter how glib or flippant they are, these sort of comments are pretty unacceptable. Bertie Ahern was castigated for similar comments and rightly so.
I'm not for one second defending Browne, I'm just saying for a man who wants to be Taoiseach, he looks awful thin skinned at the minute
You can't honestly think that a position like Taoiseach doesn't require someone who'll engage with everybody?
Real ale Madrid
04/02/2011, 4:23 PM
Getting into a bit of a tit for tat here but If he looks thin skinned for not tolerating such comments, then I guess he will have to put up with that. I don't think he looks thin skinned btw. Matter of opinion I guess.
Engage with everybody? So he should allow people say what they like about him?
Generally I agree that Kenny is looking pretty uninspiring at the moment, but he is correct to make a stand against this sort of thing.
culloty82
04/02/2011, 6:58 PM
The comment was crass, but once Kenny gets Browne to read out an apology on air before the debate, he must attend. He'll be Taoiseach regardless in three weeks, but the negative publicity will carry on until polling day if he carries out the boycott.
ArdeeBhoy
04/02/2011, 7:32 PM
It's all nonsense, but the start of a campaign is complete and utter nonsense. Like I said, I'll post a poll later. Can we stop now please? I'm so bored with this conversation I might actually die.
So on or around Feb 24th then? Fine.
;)
I don't think it's much to do with what Brown said, more Kenny and FG getting on their terms. Insisting it be on RTE too and someone other than Brown. Gilmore will probably say he doesn't care, and Martin will come out with more soundbites about it being about issues and not soundbites.
And btw, until TV3 comply with the terms of their licence in terms of coverage, they shouldn't be given exclusive things such as this.
Real ale Madrid
04/02/2011, 10:24 PM
In other news, rumour going around twitter, that Mick Wallace is running in Wexford.
Edit - He just announced same on VB, interesting, he could well win a seat.
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