The "Bailout" That Is In Actual Fact A High-Interest Loan, Not Free Money.

[awec]

cheers for the info dahamsta :)

[Mr A]

I work in IT.. was told I was going to be let go earlier in the year and hence have watched the job market pretty closely. There is loads of IT work in Dublin and even Galway is picking up. In fact we're recruiting again and are having bother getting enough qualified people.

If you do Java especially, you'll be sound.

[shakermaker1982]

I didn't think it could get any worse for Ireland but it has.............

George Osborne is offering help.

[EalingGreen]

Could Ireland threaten to pull out of the Euro?Let me see now.

The Irish Republic is the country which has (arguably) benefited most financially and economically from EU membership of the whole 27.

It is/was also amongst the most enthusiastic of members re the whole EU project.

It was pleased to join the Eurozone from the beginning, both for its financial/economic merits, but also because it allowed the country to cast off one of the last links/connections (currency) with its former colonial governor etc.

So far, so good.

Then the country's Government makes a whole series of catastrophic miscalculations and policy errors etc, many of which were downright corrupt, which left the country's economy up the creek, having incurred enormous debts to its EU partners.

And people are suggesting that all of the above should be forgotten, solely out of expediency and self-interest, even despite the damage it (leaving the Eurozone) would do to its fellow Europeans and the EU?

"How to win friends and influence people", eh?

[shakermaker1982]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11768336

any views on this article? Positive I must say.

[dahamsta]

And people are suggesting that all of the above should be forgotten, solely out of expediency and self-interest, even despite the damage it (leaving the Eurozone) would do to its fellow Europeans and the EU?

We're either a capitalist country or we're not. We're certainly not socialist and with our current system of democracy, you can't have it both ways. So yes, I stay drop it like a stone; or at least we should have a couple of years ago.

[shantykelly]

Let me see now.

The Irish Republic is the country which has (arguably) benefited most financially and economically from EU membership of the whole 27.

It is/was also amongst the most enthusiastic of members re the whole EU project.

It was pleased to join the Eurozone from the beginning, both for its financial/economic merits, but also because it allowed the country to cast off one of the last links/connections (currency) with its former colonial governor etc.

So far, so good.

Then the country's Government makes a whole series of catastrophic miscalculations and policy errors etc, many of which were downright corrupt, which left the country's economy up the creek, having incurred enormous debts to its EU partners.

And people are suggesting that all of the above should be forgotten, solely out of expediency and self-interest, even despite the damage it (leaving the Eurozone) would do to its fellow Europeans and the EU?

"How to win friends and influence people", eh?

realpolitik. a very european invention, if i'm not mistaken.

[shakermaker1982]

It's the politicians first duty to look after its own citizens. Selfish I know EG but that is the way of the world. I'm with Dahamsta. The EU/EEC has been very good for Ireland the last 30/40 but if the deal they are offered is a very painful pill to swallow then they should look at alternatives. Do Irish citizens want every decision on fiscal and monetary matters to be now in the hands of the EU?

[bennocelt]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11768336

any views on this article? Positive I must say.

Tsk tsk, its by Marc Coleman, thats enough and all I need to know. Pretty much has no creditability left - what were the names of his two books again!!!!!

[jinxy lilywhite]

it probably is in the hands of people who know how an economy and a banking system work. if anything the 2 brians are lawyers by trade and not finance people. i know it was those people (& in particular one accountant) that got us in the mess but they would of really had no educational concept of how economies work or how they operate.
In response to your post we should be in control of our own destiny. if it means leaving the euro would be better than being in it we should look at that option. Also if we do talk openly about that option maybe we might get a better deal that what will be on the table in 10 days with a stupid govt promise of paying everyone back. You'd swear no one ever heard of caveat emptor.
We certainly will not be the last country to be in this predicament.

[jinxy lilywhite]

Computer Science, so the IT industry. Graduate this spring/summer. :)

you should start applying now and getting registered with IT specialist agencies. To you I suppose it will seem like ages but fail to prepare, prepare to fail.
I know in the last 6 wks google announced they'd be looking for an extra 200 people over the next 2 yrs. Get your Cv into them now. They might be able to help and you will be getting ahead of your class mates.
Computer Sciences and IT I don't know how strong or weak it is but would it be possible for you to get a few nicksers like maintaining websites etc. or it might be worth looking into prolonging your education
I was unemployed earlier this year and was very lucky to find a position in 4 weeks but it is tough work and demoralising and I don't envy anyone who is unemployed.

[OneRedArmy]

If you think the British media are being harsh then check out the German papers!

What do you expect though? Imagine if your next door neighbour had been throwing his cash around, buying fancy cars, building an extension + swimming pool, gloating about how good he had it and now all of a sudden you've got to dig into your pockets to help this chump out because he hasn't got a pot to **** in?

Where did all the money go when Ireland was booming?

Heads should roll. The people should be on the streets kicking off.The Germans might well get angry, but they were moronic enough to buy 60% odd of our banks bonds. Not so clever now....

Also, the penny hasn't dropped yet amongst the academic heroes of our airwaves that the reason the Brits and Germans are clamouring for a bailout is that their banks are so up to their balls in Irish sov and bank debt, we'll still go down in flames, but we'll bring their banks with us.

That's realpolitik....

[mypost]

The EU/EEC has been very good for Ireland the last 30/40 but if the deal they are offered is a very painful pill to swallow then they should look at alternatives. Do Irish citizens want every decision on fiscal and monetary matters to be now in the hands of the EU?

Do we want it? We already have it.

Despite their denials, it's only a question of when they will take the package offered. If it's to help to fund the banks, then it may not be too bad, but if it's to fund the economy in general, Cowen should promptly go to the bill-signer in the Park, and help her sign off this Dail term once and for all, as he and his government will have lost all authority to rule the country.

[boovidge]

We can't, and won't leave the Euro. Once you're in these agreements, you stay in. It's not an a la carte job.

Having our own currency means it becomes vulnerable to 'runs' by investors and speculators. We have some shelter from that within the Euro, and more countries are signing up to it each year. Without the Euro, we'd be where Iceland was in 2008. Hung, drawn, and quartered.


Read this (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5912682/Icelands-krona-proves-the-magic-wand-as-Europe-ails.html) about Iceland. Their independent currency helped to buffer the blow and bring them out of recession. The Euro makes no economic sense whatsoever, it was conceived by politicians for political reasons.

[Mr A]

The Telegraph isn't exactly known for being pro anything European though...

[BonnieShels]

But in fairness it's an argument that has been made on and off for the last few years by others. There is sense for the Euro in good times but now it's a crock.

Now the question is when the hell are these clowns going to f|_|ck right off?

[dahamsta]

They're not. Bend over.

[Macy]

Anybody see Newsnight tonight? I was stunned by the growing anti-Irish sentiment that has been building all day. Even when broadcasting outside the Queens gaff they were getting digs in on UTV, BBC etc. When the BBC journo shouted out after Lenihan "When will you end this chaos?" it looked like a cringeworthy paper thin imitation of Michael Moore. At least Michael Moore was being held back, Lenihan gave interviews to BBC, ITV, RTE etc just 3 metres away, yet the Newsnight crew wanted to make it a nasty slap at the man. The Chancellor claimed the UK need a strong Ireland for exports, that it's important to keep us alive, BBC are looking to stir the siht.
The only the thing wrong with Newsnight was the part with Dick Roche on it. Total embarrassment. Just what respect do you think Lenihan deserves, after the situation he's landed us and the eurozone in?


any views on this article?
It's by Marc "soft landing" Coleman. Ignore it.

[BonnieShels]

They're not. Bend over.

Back to the pile.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1118/economy1.html
Am I missing something here?

Did he not just spend the last 4 days saying that it wasn't a fait acompli?

Top Story on the BBC now.

"I certainly don't feel a sense of shame about fighting hard for this country for the last 2 years to ensure it's financial survival... because I know what the right decisions are for this country"
Go now you treacherous shower of *****.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11793025

[tricky_colour]

Anybody see Newsnight tonight? I was stunned by the growing anti-Irish sentiment that has been building all day. Even when broadcasting outside the Queens gaff they were getting digs in on UTV, BBC etc. When the BBC journo shouted out after Lenihan "When will you end this chaos?" it looked like a cringeworthy paper thin imitation of Michael Moore. At least Michael Moore was being held back, Lenihan gave interviews to BBC, ITV, RTE etc just 3 metres away, yet the Newsnight crew wanted to make it a nasty slap at the man. The Chancellor claimed the UK need a strong Ireland for exports, that it's important to keep us alive, BBC are looking to stir the siht.

It's bit rich the UK criticising Ireland, the difference between England and Ireland is that England prints it's own money, if you still had your own currency you could simply print 90 billion punt, and simply leave a "IOU 90 billion punt" in the cash box - simples!!

That's fine untill the inflation hits you a few years down the line, destroying savings and pensions and putting prices through the roof.

Nobody really knows the true state of the UK's finances, the officail figures are bad, I wonder what the real ones are like.

I wonder if they got the printing presses off Robert Mugabee!!

[Closed Account 2]

I didn't think it could get any worse for Ireland but it has.............

George Osborne is offering help.

A bit of an about turn for him:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article733821.ece

[geysir]

Read this (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5912682/Icelands-krona-proves-the-magic-wand-as-Europe-ails.html) about Iceland. Their independent currency helped to buffer the blow and bring them out of recession. The Euro makes no economic sense whatsoever, it was conceived by politicians for political reasons.

Unfortunately for Ireland, the major decisions on what to do after Sept 2008 were made by a hapless Government who followed the most hazardous path, turning massive private bondholder debt into sovereign debt, under the umbrella of what they call the national interest.

The independent currency was just one factor in Iceland. The most important factor was dealing methodically and firmly with bondholder claimants and the angry public protest which brought down the government, paved the way for some serious work.
A central moral force in the shape of the formidable Eva Joly, was imported and appointed by the new government to head a fraud investigation. She did not hesitate to publicly tear strips out of any remnants of the old guard.
She had no political agenda.
When the banks collapsed one after the other in sept 2008, the deposits were guaranteed, the banks never lost a heartbeat and opened the next day under a new name. The deposits were transferred from the old bank to the new bank. The bad stuff was all left parked at the old bank and before a lawyer or creditor could book a flight, the old banks were in receivership subject to Icelandic laws. An ordinary citizen doing regular business at the bank would not have noticed the slightest difference between one day and the next.
The claimants (bondholders/investment funds) to the nationalised bank, Landsbanki, were not well pleased and wanted to be treated equally with the depositor claims. But under Iceland law, the depositors are a priority claimant. That case is currently going through the courts.

On another failed bank, after some of the dust settled, the government valued the assets and made an offer to the foreign creditors, either take a one time discounted financial pay-off or take control of the bank and pay back to the Iceland state the value of what the State had expended to secure deposits. The creditors chose to take control of the bank and reimburse the State.
The majority of the private property mortgages were issued and still managed by a State owned finance company. The largest bank is nationalised, the 2 other main banks are functioning, afaiaa, under control of the creditors.
The CB reserves are decent, the trade balance is good - in fact has not been better. There is a moratorium on paying out on Government Bonds called Glacial bonds, currency restrictions are in place so that foreign cash reserves are not depleted. Exporters are mandated by law to bank, earned foreign currency, in Iceland.
And all this crisis management has the IMF purring contentedly. Although the IMF have been pressing to have currency restrictions lifted, it is the Iceland Central Bank which decides and they keep postponing the lifting of currency restrictions.

[BonnieShels]

Well we can but hope that the left wing camps of FG and Labour call the IMF back in January and say here's the deal.
I think even if they fail to satisfy the IMF then they at least attempted and that could look well in the electorates eyes that these guys are the real deal.
Essentially all we gained in the last 2 years are mountains of debt and NAMA.

Enda Kenny has been remarkable in the last 2 days in that he has said the bear minimum and let the heavy hitters like Jimmy, Dickie and Mickey lay it all down. Gilmore has been hapless trying to show off his statesman credentials.

I don't think we should write off the State just yet.

[mypost]

Read this (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5912682/Icelands-krona-proves-the-magic-wand-as-Europe-ails.html) about Iceland. Their independent currency helped to buffer the blow and bring them out of recession. The Euro makes no economic sense whatsoever, it was conceived by politicians for political reasons.

No, that's what Lisbon is for.*

Iceland's currency collapsed like a snowman in summer 2 years ago, and it's currency was victim to investors and speculators. The government fell, they called in the IMF, and applied to the EU for membership. Our currency would have suffered the same fate two years ago without the Euro.

Our currency didn't collapse, the government just ran out of cash. Statistically, we're also out of recession but practically, we haven't even hit the bottom yet, and it will be much longer before we see green shoots. That's not because of the Euro, it's down to how government handled our affairs, constantly getting their budget projections wrong, and not convincing our creditors abroad that they could get us out of it.

*Another of the Lisbon "untouchables" may soon fall, i.e. minimum wage. And corporation tax may go with it, despite the government denials. In Brussels, you don't get a free lunch, and something will have to be conceded in order to get the bailout.

[Fr Damo]

I think corpoation tax could take a slight hit but I don't think it will happen. It is out performing budget and is a realistic form of income for Mr Chopra of the IMF to be re paid with. I cannot see them culling the one beast which is putting milk and now cheese on the table.

Exports from the the FDIs are up 12% year on year I believe but what the figurers don't say is employment in that sector is down 16,000 souls. A result of the move to higher value less labour intensive work I am afraid. Now, who'd have thought that would happen!

[geysir]

No, that's what Lisbon is for.*
Iceland's currency collapsed like a snowman in summer 2 years ago, and it's currency was victim to investors and speculators. The government fell, they called in the IMF, and applied to the EU for membership.
A currency becomes a victim to speculators after the domestic economy becomes susceptible. An economy becomes susceptible when Banks/Gov act in a grossly irresponsible manner.
And most Iceland people do not want to join the EU. If there was a referendum held tomorrow, the application would be rejected 60/40. Maybe for short period in the bleakest times, there was a slight majority in favour of joining the EU.



Our currency would have suffered the same fate two years ago without the Euro.
I don't believe so. In the same situation in Sept 2008 but Ireland with the Punt, the fate would have depended on the Government's response to the crisis. The difference between Iceland and Ireland is not one letter, it is the understanding of two words, the "national interest". The Iceland Gov in Sept 2008, even with a bunch of cronies in power, acted first in the national interest to protect the State. The Irish Government acted first and last in the interests of the Irish Banks and the risk takers in the EU banks.

[mypost]

If we had the punt, we would have endured a major "run" at it, as in Hungary, Serbia, and Latvia. All independent currencies, and all of which had to call the IMF in, as in Iceland. That almost certainly would have taken the banks with it here too.

[BonnieShels]

This argument is moot. Look where we are and ask why we are here. As of this week will own ALL of the banks.
Yet the they cling on. Election in March? **** that!

[geysir]

If we had the punt, we would have endured a major "run" at it, as in Hungary, Serbia, and Latvia. All independent currencies, and all of which had to call the IMF in, as in Iceland. That almost certainly would have taken the banks with it here too.
So the argument is Mypost, a badly managed Irish euro zone economy crash is less painful than a badly managed Irish 'own currency' economy crash? I have no idea, but i'd say the common word there is 'badly managed'.
And you do realise that the IMF is also at Ireland's euro zone door? Not that I share a fear of the supposedly evil IMF, it's the size of the hole that has been dug is the issue.

[Mr A]

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/eu-and-imf-will-provide-ireland-with-85bn-fund-482989.html

85 Billion bailout. State to own 99% of AIB.

[osarusan]

Did anybody see VBrowne tonight on TV3? He had guys on talking about debts of 200-300 billion plus to be paid back at 5-6% interest. Basically saying that the country couldn't afford the bailout being offered. It would mean using something like 30% of all revenue to repay the debt, while the country is already running a deficit.

The consensus was to withdraw the guarantee and separate sovereign debt from bank debt, default on the bank debts (or renegotiate repayments) and manage the sovereign debt.

Granted, I think they were happy to paint a 'worst case scenario' and Browne caught the guy from Trinity/UCD on this, but it was still horrific stuff.

[hoops1]

Frightening stuff. Its very hard to comprehend the mess we are in.

[OneRedArmy]

I wish the meedja would also stop referring to it as a bailout. That implies something for nothing, which this certainly isn't.

[Macy]

Its very hard to comprehend the mess we are in.
And the vast majority of the mess is still tied to the bloody guarantee. 2 years on, and we're only starting to look at actually sorting out the banking system rather than proping up the existing one, and that's only because of the IMF, nothing to do with Lenihan or Cowen. I'm not sure straight nationalisation of the systemically important banks (i.e. not including Anglo) would've resulted in a different outcome (I guess it would've knocked 30-40 billion off the bill at least), but ffs at least we wouldn't have wasted over 2 bloody years, billions of euro and still ended up with a nationalised banking system as we are going to have now AIB and Bank of Ireland are going to majority state control.

[pineapple stu]

Heard on the radio this morning that protests were being planned at the extent of the budget cuts. You have to wonder what planet people are living on at times.

[total hoofball]

It is clear as daylight that the only solution to Ireland's long-term survival is to default now. The country is going to be strangled to death if we sign up to this bailout fund if it's above 2% interest, 5%-7% will inflict the most painful slow death a state will ever see. We have to put the gun at the EU's heads while we have the opportunity and the clock is ticking very fast.

Fianna Fáil are sinking and they're going to make sure Ireland and the people go down with them. Scum of the earth is too nice of a phrase to describe these traitors.

[Billsthoughts]

Anyone else amazed by how underwhelming the four year plan is?
Even by the standards of these guys its poor.
Croke Park deal to be stuck to.

[passinginterest]

Just had a read there. Possibly the least imaginative thing I've ever read, as a civil servant it's a bit of a relief to see that they want to stick with Croke Park and are not planning any sweeping cuts.

It's definitely targetting the lower paid and unemployed more than any other sector and that's a very worrying aspect.

[Dodge]

Heard on the radio this morning that protests were being planned at the extent of the budget cuts. You have to wonder what planet people are living on at times.

The planet where social welfare and minimum wage receive greater cuts than people earning 100k+

The planet where a mess almost wholly down to the banking (and government collussion) has a national recovery plan that doesn't mention a single word about banking reform.

Protests aren't about the extent of cuts, they're about the gross unfairness of them


Just had a read there. Possibly the least imaginative thing I've ever read, as a civil servant it's a bit of a relief to see that they want to stick with Croke Park and are not planning any sweeping cuts

Civil servants pension contributions are now made after tax, not before. Sneakily tough measure

[Billsthoughts]

Loads of vague waffle in it as well. Reads like a aspirational manifesto not a plan with clear goals and markers.

[pineapple stu]

The planet where social welfare and minimum wage receive greater cuts than people earning 100k+

The planet where a mess almost wholly down to the banking (and government collussion) has a national recovery plan that doesn't mention a single word about banking reform.

Protests aren't about the extent of cuts, they're about the gross unfairness of them
That's probably fair enough; it was just very badly worded on the news. It came across as people moaning cos we'd have to pull E5bn from somewhere, and could we not just cut a tenner instead.

[Dodge]

Not like RTE to put a political slant on it...

Cheers for the merge adam, I should know better...

[pineapple stu]

4FM actually. But I just lump it under "lazy journalists" to be honest.

[BonnieShels]

Metro North to go ahead but interconnector cancelled. So Dublin will have another disparate transport link. Rocking.

[geysir]

No mention of a fire sale of income generating State assets, which is good but doesn't mean its not going to happen.

Cuts and charges for 80 pages and a few pages about investing in roads etc, does that mean the Gov have no ideas on how to make money? If only we had Albert, I'm sure he could think up of a few money making schemes.

page 87, 88
'capital investment by the ESB will be over €6 billion' .....'Bórd Gáis will invest in the region of €1.3 billion which will target .......':
I suppose that means those State companies have been able to function by managing to isolate themselves from Government interference, have come up with their own plans - away from Government interference and have been able to negotiate a foreign loan for those amounts, with their reputation untarnished by the stain of Government incompetence.

Yet it is presented as if government personally inspired the whole thing.

[BonnieShels]

I posted this in general but...


Page 13, 14 and 80 are hilarious.

[Dodge]

No mention of a fire sale of income generating State assets, which is good but doesn't mean its not going to happen.


page 80

"The sale of State assets could reduce the debt interest burden and the Government will be considering the disposal of assets. The recently established Review Group on State Assets and Liabilities will report by end December 2010. This will help to lower the ongoing interest cost."

[geysir]

Ouch, the sting is well and truly in motion.

[passinginterest]

My personal favourite line;

Productivity will be improved by eliminating outdated working and attendance arrangements and by better managing existing human resources and by better managing existing human resources across the Civil Service.
Bottom page 68 to top 69

Saying it twice definitely makes it more likely to happen :D

[dancinpants]

I read that the reports also said "that 45% of Irish taxpayers paid no income tax this year". How is that possible?