Euro 2016 Play-Offs - November 13th and 16th

**Closed Account 2** · 12/10/2015, 10:34 PM

Originally Posted by zero

seems the commentators on sky aren't aware that a ukraine win would very likely give them best 3rd place. they have said ukraine are DOOMED to a playoff now given slovakia are 3-0 up in luxembourg.

they were pretty clueless, they spent a good 2-3 mins wondering why Mourinho would be at a Ukraine v Spain game, "when Costa was never likely to feature" - they obviously didn't realise that Chelsea's next CL game is against Dinamo Kiev.

**tricky_colour** · 12/10/2015, 10:37 PM

Originally Posted by davidatrb

Starting to look clear. Currently seeds are Ukraine, Sweden, Croatia and Bosnia with Denmark likely to be promoted to seed if Croatia seal automatic qualification tomorrow (they need a favour from Italy which looks likely).

We are next in line for promotion if anything funny happens between Cyprus, Israel and Bosnia. But Turkey could take that chance away from us for themselves with a win against Iceland or hand our chance to Netherlands with a loss.

Looks like a question from a maths A level exam paper that you know you are gonna get zero marks for!!

**tricky_colour** · 12/10/2015, 10:55 PM

Isn't penalties a very likely option? Ie like a 1-0 win v Germany and 2-1 defeat to Poland giving a 2-2 draw?

In that situation would we qualify on away goals?

On the betting one bookie has it a a coin flip (5/6 v 5/6) for qualification, another goes 5/4 yes 4/7 no, another 1/1 yes 8/11 no.

But they also went 6-1 and 7-1 to beat Germany so not a great guide.

**DannyInvincible** · 13/10/2015, 12:41 AM

Originally Posted by eekers

I don't think the rankings are factoring in the extra points Platini give us with the Euro 2012 award.

What's this about? The award for our support? I assume you're joking...?

**ArdeeBhoy** · 13/10/2015, 1:49 AM

Nah. Let's just say that play-off draw then, was pre-destined, as some recompense for Paris...

**TheBoss** · 13/10/2015, 5:16 AM

Originally Posted by Littlest Hobo

At the moment we will be un-seeded for the play-offs draw. Some of the other games would need to finish the following way, if we are to be seeded;

Turkey v Iceland (Draw)

Cyprus v Bosnia (Home win)

Malta v Croatia (Away win)

Italy v Norway (Home win or draw)

If all of these 4 results come in, regardless of what happens elsewhere, then we would be seeded.

Turkey v Iceland (Draw) - It will either be a draw or Turkey win but feel latter will just happen, 40% Chance
Cyprus v Bosnia (Home win) - Possible but think a draw is more likely, 35% Chance
Malta v Croatia (Away win) - A certain banker, 98% Chance
Italy v Norway (Home win or draw) - Highly likely, 75% Chance

**geysir** · 13/10/2015, 12:08 PM

Ukraine Sweden Denmark are already in the play off draw and seeded ahead of us
Slovenia are in the play off draw and unseeded.

Afaiu, we need 2 of these three outcomes to happen in order that we take the 4th seeded spot.

Norway to finish third
Turkey draw
Bosnia to commit suicide + Israel to get a result in Belgium

There is still a live chance that Turkey can secure the best 3rd spot with space to spare, therefore they will be all out for victory.

**back of the net** · 13/10/2015, 1:33 PM

Originally Posted by geysir

Ukraine Sweden Denmark are already in the play off draw and seeded ahead of us
Slovenia are in the play off draw and unseeded.

Afaiu, we need 2 of these three outcomes to happen in order that we take the 4th seeded spot.

Norway to finish third
Turkey draw
Bosnia to commit suicide + Israel to get a result in Belgium

There is still a live chance that Turkey can secure the best 3rd spot with space to spare, therefore they will be all out for victory.

From rte.ie

Ireland will be banking on a series of results to fall their way in tonight’s Euro 2016 qualifiers that could result in Martin O’Neill’s men being seeded for the play-off draw in Nyon next Sunday.
If Norway fail to beat Italy, Croatia overcome Malta, Bosnia lose to Cyprus and Turkey draw with Iceland the knock-on effect on the coefficent rankings system will elevate Ireland to seeded status and give them a very welcome boost ahead of the draw.

**geysir** · 13/10/2015, 2:06 PM

So we need a hat-trick not a brace

we would need all three group outcomes to go our way. And only one of them (Norway) has a reasonable favoured chance to happen.

**back of the net** · 13/10/2015, 2:52 PM

Originally Posted by geysir

So we need a hat-trick not a brace

we would need all three group outcomes to go our way. And only one of them (Norway) has a reasonable favoured chance to happen.

Well cyprus beat Bosnia in bosnia....so it gives us some hope that something can happen there

Add in if Cyprus win they have a massive chance to qualify for the playoffs

**davidatrb** · 13/10/2015, 5:31 PM

I would say if we are unseeded which is likely that 50-50 chance of qualifying sounds about right.

You have to remember that we beat Denmark 4-0 last time we played them and they recently were annihialated at home by Armenia (0-4).

Bosnia as we have reminded ourselves this week were beaten by both Cyprus and Israel in this campaign. Last time we played them, we beat them too. They were in the playoffs for the last Euros as well, and were wiped out by Portugal in the away leg (6-2).

Sweden look like they could be half useful, but only half. Their stats aren't anything to be afraid of, they haven't beaten a top 10 team in 4 years. Last time we played, they beat us 2-1 in Lansdowne, but I think now, if we meet again that we would be favourite over two legs or at least 50-50 chance.

Ukraine look the most useful but then they let Slovakia beat them at home and qualify ahead of them. Slovakia aren't great.

They will all look at Ireland as the World Champion beaters and we WILL be the one to avoid in the unseeded teams (although you could make a case for Turkey too).

We are all in the play-offs together for a reason, they all failed to make the grade just like us.

My preference - Denmark or Sweden.

**DannyInvincible** · 13/10/2015, 6:41 PM

A Bosnia draw and (very unlikely) Israel victory over Belgium would suit us, wouldn't it? It'd mean Israel would enter the play-offs but wouldn't propel them ahead of us in terms of co-efficient points, if I'm reading everything correctly.

**back of the net** · 13/10/2015, 7:00 PM

Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

A Bosnia draw and (very unlikely) Israel victory over Belgium would suit us, wouldn't it? It'd mean Israel would enter the play-offs but wouldn't propel them ahead of us in terms of co-efficient points, if I'm reading everything correctly.

Bosnia 1up after 15 mins