NI Westminster Election 2017
The 4th vote in 13 months (and possibly 5th if there is an assembly election the same day).
Belfast East: Alliance v DUP. If there is a unionist pact DUP will be favorites to hang on. If not it will go down to the wire
Belfast North: SF v DUP. Gerry Kelly likely to fall just short for the 478th time
Belfast South: DUP v SDLP. Tactical voting from SF/Greens/Alliance probably enough for SDLP to hang on once again (unless there is a unionist pact)
Belfast West - Safe SF
East Antrim - Safe DUP
East Derry - Safe DUP
Fermanagh & South Tyrone - UUP v SF. Probably a SF gain
Foyle - Looking at the assembly election results this should be a potential gain for SF. Though Mark Durkan is very popular. Should stay SDLP, though could get very interesting if a member of the McGuinness family were on the ballot.
Lagan Valley - Safe DUP
Mid Ulster - Safe SF
Newry & Armagh - Safe SF
North Antrim - Safe DUP
North Down - Safe Ind Unionist
South Antrim - DUP v UUP. Probably remains UUP
South Down - SDLP v SF. SF will get closer than last time but SDLP should hang on
Strangford - Safe DUP
Upper Bann - DUP v UUP v SF. DUP probably hang on even without a pact
West Tyrone - Safe SF
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
For what it's worth, I feel Mark Durkan will have great difficulty keeping his seat in Foyle regardless.
Long has tweeted that she's prepared to stand again in East Belfast, if asked to do so by the party - already gets nationalist support, but will she pick up UUP votes?
Chris Donnelly on the prospect of the SDLP changing their attitude towards electoral pacts with Sinn Féin: https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/04/20...nion-of-pacts/
Originally Posted by Chris Donnelly
I don't think the SDLP want a pact. It seems to me that this is an attempt to use the threat of one to prevent a unionist pact from being formed.
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
It's being reported that Elisha McCallion will attempt to unseat Mark Durkan in Foyle for Sinn Féin: http://www.derryjournal.com/news/eli...ster-1-7931273
Originally Posted by Brendan McDaid
The SDLP and Sinn Féin are still trying to keep hopes of a "pro-Remain pact" alive, according to the Irish News, in spite of Steven Agnew pulling the plug on any participation by the Green Party in such a pact yesterday.
Eastwood wants to see an agreed non-aligned candidate put forward by pro-Remain parties in Fermanagh-South Tyrone, even though Sinn Féin are likely to win that seat regardless of any pact, but he mentions nothing of compromising on such a candidate in South Belfast and appears to be insisting that Alasdair McDonnell will be standing there for the SDLP, no matter what, in spite of the fact that McDonnell will almost certainly lose his seat to any sole unionist candidate unless some sort of pro-Remain pact is agreed. Is Eastwood really as prepared for compromise as he professes to be? Hmm...Originally Posted by John Manley
If the SDLP don't get their act together, I think the nationalist and pro-Remain electorate will punish them for sitting on the fence here and unforgivably allowing unionist Brexiteers to cake-walk what should otherwise be very winnable seats for agreed pro-Remain candidates. Is describing this election as the potential death-knell of the SDLP over-egging it a bit? (Or maybe that already happened a long time ago!)
Also, in what way did Alliance "sectarianise" things? I don't quite get that accusation by Eastwood.
Last edited by DannyInvincible; 26/04/2017 at 5:12 PM.
It all feels like a bit of a phony war. This anti brexit pact isn't going anywhere, but perhaps they want to be seen to give it a go so SF voters in South Belfast, SDLP voters in North Belfast, and Nationalists of all stripes in East Belfast get the message.
Tactically voting Unionists in Foyle and South Down should get the SDLP over the line, and FST should go back to SF, pact or no pact.
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
Alasdair McDonnell is in confident mood: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-39738629
Is he setting himself up for a grand fall?Originally Posted by Alasdair McDonnell
I see PBP have performed a bit of a U-turn on Brexit, presumably as supporting it had proven so self-destructive in the assembly election, and are now contesting the upcoming election on an "anti-Tory Brexit" platform: https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/04/28...t-tory-brexit/
In mocking fashion, Slugger mod Brian O'Neill highlights that, unfortunately for the socialist grouping, this could be interpreted as more of a nod to Groucho Marx than Karl Marx: "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others."Originally Posted by John Manley
Certainly not a good look!
I have a lot of time for PBP and gave my first preference vote to Eamonn McCann in the recent assembly election as I'd be broadly supportive of his progressive approach to politics (in spite of my uneasiness with his then-inflexible and, in my opinion, misguided backing of what was only ever going to be a Tory Brexit) and, as a political subversive, I thought he'd be a big loss to any operational assembly, but I have to admit that this apparent volte-face by the alliance does have a whiff of "well, it's a bit late now to be changing your tune!" about it. It's more or less a distressed admission that the Brexit stance really took the wind out of PBP's sails. It remains to be seen whether people will dismiss it as a desperate and all-too-late attempt to claw back lost votes or whether they'll afford PBP credit for having faced up to the reality of Brexit eventually.
I don't see how anyone can support them with a straight face. Their brand of socialism is reactionary and devoid of real solutions to the so-called problems they espouse to want to fix. They constantly rail against the funding base for services and then at the same time complain about services not being adequate. I loathe them.
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
Gerry Kelly not running. Pat Finucane's son John is the SF candidate in North Belfast. He should seriously widen the potential nationalist base to unseat Dodds.
EDIT: 1st opinion poll results out
poll.jpg
Last edited by backstothewall; 02/05/2017 at 8:11 PM.
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
In a very interesting development, Sinn Féin have chosen John Finucane, son of Pat Finucane, as their North Belfast candidate: https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/05/02...north-belfast/
Gerry Kelly has contested this constituency without success since the late '90s, but Finucane's nomination, no doubt an attempt to capitalise on the resurgent nationalist vote in the constituency in the recent assembly election, where nationalists took a majority (three) of the five seats on offer, should make things very interesting in terms of potentially unseating Nigel Dodds.
Originally Posted by Chris Donnelly
Agreed, very interesting development this one.
There is a possibility that unionism will be swept from Belfast at this election. On another day they take 3 seats, but it is quite possible that the second city returns 2 SF, 1 SDLP and 1 Alliance.
That would be every bit as seismic as "the greening of the west" in 2001.
Last edited by backstothewall; 03/05/2017 at 6:18 PM.
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
Apologies if something obvious? Would that further undermine unionism?
Gerry Adams is reportedly set to step down as leader of Sinn Féin later this year: http://www.irishnews.com/news/2017/0...claim-1019327/
Originally Posted by John Monaghan
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