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Thread: LOI series 23

  1. #21
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    I've said it before and I'll say it again. Never back UCD. They can't be relied upon!. Except if they're playing us, the feckers.
    Upwards to the vanguard where the pressure is too high.

  2. #22
    International Prospect De Town's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Longfordian View Post
    I've said it before and I'll say it again. Never back UCD. They can't be relied upon!. Except if they're playing us, the feckers.
    That's mainly why I did back them, coz I was so impressed with them against us last week! oh well..

  3. #23
    First Team brianw82's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by brianw82 View Post
    Longford Town v Shelbourne



    Not much more to be said on this. Longford have improved under Gareth Cronin, but only slightly. They've fallen to 2 successive 3-0 defeats to Fingal and UCD, and that luck is not likely to change against the league leaders, who got back to winning ways against Harps last week.

    Backing Shelbourne @ 8/13 (Boyle sports) - 5 pts
    That'll do nicely.

    Longfordian, I'd always put a team's consistency ahead of possible fears that they won't win. For the top team(s) in a division, they're simply always more likely to win than not.

  4. #24
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    Fair enough, it's just a personal decision because any time I've backed them they've let me down, usually against the poorer teams.
    Upwards to the vanguard where the pressure is too high.

  5. #25
    Seasoned Pro Raheny Red's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Battery Rover View Post
    Last minute goal saves Athlone bookmakers will be the headline this week. Virtually the whole town was on at 11/1 with Boylesports and had heard of people only being offered 13/2 later in the day but they were still taking it.
    Why were so many people that confident or was it just the 11/1 that attracted so many people?
    Who Cares?!

  6. #26
    Capped Player Schumi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by brianw82 View Post
    That'll do nicely.

    Longfordian, I'd always put a team's consistency ahead of possible fears that they won't win. For the top team(s) in a division, they're simply always more likely to win than not.
    Handicap betting on us is silly though. Longford are the only team we've scored more than one against since the middle of June.
    We're not arrogant, we're just better.

  7. #27
    First Team Battery Rover's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raheny Red View Post
    Why were so many people that confident or was it just the 11/1 that attracted so many people?
    Everyone was confident that Davy O'Connor and Andrei Georgescu would bring on the team a lot. On top of that our last two games against them we lost just 1-0 on both occasions and we were over ran in midfield in both those.

    Our midfield Friday night was much more experienced than we last played them and we have the physical presence of Austin Skelly up front now as well.

    There are tremendous things happening within the club under Brendan Place and the talk in the pubs are now about Athlone in a positive light whether we win, lose or draw.

    Follow Us on Facebook and Twitter

  8. #28
    Seasoned Pro Raheny Red's Avatar
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    Cork City -V- Shamrock Rovers

    Just clicked on odds checker to see if there is any value on tomorrow night’s games and I couldn’t believe my eyes when I seen the price on the away win. 11/5 for Rovers to win with VC is massive value in my opinion. I wouldn’t have the Hoops any bigger than 13/8 - 7/4 to be honest. The Hoops are a massive 13 games unbeaten in the league now and are real title contenders at this stage. They have a huge amount of momentum behind them and any side in this league will find it hard to stop them. Cork City, meanwhile, have been in turmoil in recent months off the pitch and things will get worse soon enough when they will have to shed their wage bill even further. If the rest of the players are feeling just as half as angry as Joe Gamble then this could be a doddle for Rovers, from today’s Sun:

    "I didnt just wake up one morning and think ah sure i'll give this a lash, if we go part time i'll have to leave it,s as simple as that. Maybe if i was 30 or 31 it world be different but im 27 so i should have four or five good years left. If i didnt have a daughter, a missus and a house then maybe id stay but i have commitments. I owe it to them to do the best i can for them, just like any other family man would . I signed a contract last year for three years and four weeks later its gone wrong. It's not worth the paper its written on. I WAS DUE SIX WEEKS WAGES ON THURSDAY AND I ONLY GOT 20 PER CENT OF A MONTH'S WAGES - WHAT F***ING LOYALTY IS THAT, THEY CAN F*** OFF AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED. You tell me anyone who will work for six weeks and get 20 per cent for a months wages"

    Cork can be difficult place to go for the 3 points and this season the games there have been tight affairs, there’s been 11 league games there so far with City scoring just 8 and conceding only 6. However, Rovers are 6 points clear of them, they are the better side. Rovers are going forward while Cork are going back. The 11/5 is unbelievable value and I’m 100% certain you won’t get any price close to that tomorrow evening. Max bet for me. Rovers to win 2-0.

    Backing Shamrock Rovers @ 11/5 (Victor Chandler) - 7.5 pts.
    Who Cares?!

  9. #29
    Biased against YOUR club pineapple stu's Avatar
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    Good spot.

  10. #30
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    The 2/1 with PP even looks too high to me - would be interested to hear JC_GUFC's views!

  11. #31
    First Team brianw82's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raheny Red View Post
    Cork City -V- Shamrock Rovers

    Just clicked on odds checker to see if there is any value on tomorrow night’s games and I couldn’t believe my eyes when I seen the price on the away win. 11/5 for Rovers to win with VC is massive value in my opinion. I wouldn’t have the Hoops any bigger than 13/8 - 7/4 to be honest. The Hoops are a massive 13 games unbeaten in the league now and are real title contenders at this stage. They have a huge amount of momentum behind them and any side in this league will find it hard to stop them. Cork City, meanwhile, have been in turmoil in recent months off the pitch and things will get worse soon enough when they will have to shed their wage bill even further. If the rest of the players are feeling just as half as angry as Joe Gamble then this could be a doddle for Rovers, from today’s Sun:

    "I didnt just wake up one morning and think ah sure i'll give this a lash, if we go part time i'll have to leave it,s as simple as that. Maybe if i was 30 or 31 it world be different but im 27 so i should have four or five good years left. If i didnt have a daughter, a missus and a house then maybe id stay but i have commitments. I owe it to them to do the best i can for them, just like any other family man would . I signed a contract last year for three years and four weeks later its gone wrong. It's not worth the paper its written on. I WAS DUE SIX WEEKS WAGES ON THURSDAY AND I ONLY GOT 20 PER CENT OF A MONTH'S WAGES - WHAT F***ING LOYALTY IS THAT, THEY CAN F*** OFF AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED. You tell me anyone who will work for six weeks and get 20 per cent for a months wages"

    Cork can be difficult place to go for the 3 points and this season the games there have been tight affairs, there’s been 11 league games there so far with City scoring just 8 and conceding only 6. However, Rovers are 6 points clear of them, they are the better side. Rovers are going forward while Cork are going back. The 11/5 is unbelievable value and I’m 100% certain you won’t get any price close to that tomorrow evening. Max bet for me. Rovers to win 2-0.

    Backing Shamrock Rovers @ 11/5 (Victor Chandler) - 7.5 pts.
    You spotted the odds but not my new midweek thread, RR? For shame.

    I'm gonna be on Rovers like a fly on manure very shortly, those odds are insanely good. Won't be going with such high stakes as you, though.

  12. #32
    First Team brianw82's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raheny Red View Post
    Cork City -V- Shamrock Rovers

    Just clicked on odds checker to see if there is any value on tomorrow night’s games and I couldn’t believe my eyes when I seen the price on the away win. 11/5 for Rovers to win with VC is massive value in my opinion. I wouldn’t have the Hoops any bigger than 13/8 - 7/4 to be honest. The Hoops are a massive 13 games unbeaten in the league now and are real title contenders at this stage. They have a huge amount of momentum behind them and any side in this league will find it hard to stop them. Cork City, meanwhile, have been in turmoil in recent months off the pitch and things will get worse soon enough when they will have to shed their wage bill even further. If the rest of the players are feeling just as half as angry as Joe Gamble then this could be a doddle for Rovers, from today’s Sun:

    "I didnt just wake up one morning and think ah sure i'll give this a lash, if we go part time i'll have to leave it,s as simple as that. Maybe if i was 30 or 31 it world be different but im 27 so i should have four or five good years left. If i didnt have a daughter, a missus and a house then maybe id stay but i have commitments. I owe it to them to do the best i can for them, just like any other family man would . I signed a contract last year for three years and four weeks later its gone wrong. It's not worth the paper its written on. I WAS DUE SIX WEEKS WAGES ON THURSDAY AND I ONLY GOT 20 PER CENT OF A MONTH'S WAGES - WHAT F***ING LOYALTY IS THAT, THEY CAN F*** OFF AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED. You tell me anyone who will work for six weeks and get 20 per cent for a months wages"

    Cork can be difficult place to go for the 3 points and this season the games there have been tight affairs, there’s been 11 league games there so far with City scoring just 8 and conceding only 6. However, Rovers are 6 points clear of them, they are the better side. Rovers are going forward while Cork are going back. The 11/5 is unbelievable value and I’m 100% certain you won’t get any price close to that tomorrow evening. Max bet for me. Rovers to win 2-0.

    Backing Shamrock Rovers @ 11/5 (Victor Chandler) - 7.5 pts.
    RR has basically said all that needs to be said on this. The gut says Shamrock Rovers will win this one, and that's what I'm going with.

    Backing Shamrock Rovers @ 3.2 (Betfair) - 2 pts.

  13. #33
    International Prospect DmanDmythDledge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DmanDmythDledge View Post
    Bohs@1.72 vs Cork- 2pts
    Rovers@1.83
    vs Drogs- 1pt
    Dundalk@2.74
    vs Sligo- 1pt
    Fingal -1@1.4 vs Mervue- 4pts
    UCD -1@1.8
    vs Athlone- 2pts
    Waterford@1.57
    vs Kildare- 2pts
    Shels@1.63
    vs Longford- 1pt
    Just UCD let me down. 5.38pts profit.

  14. #34
    First Team brianw82's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DmanDmythDledge View Post
    Just UCD let me down. 5.38pts profit.
    Rovers too.

    However, you had to bet 13 points to get that. That gives you odds of 1.41. You could've just stuck it all on Fingal -1 at 1.4 without so much risk.

  15. #35
    International Prospect De Town's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by brianw82 View Post
    Rovers too.


    He had Dundalk to beat Sligo.

  16. #36
    Seasoned Pro ifk101's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by brianw82 View Post
    That gives you odds of 1.41. You could've just stuck it all on Fingal -1 at 1.4 without so much risk.
    He'd increase his risk by following your suggestion.

  17. #37
    First Team brianw82's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ifk101 View Post
    He'd increase his risk by following your suggestion.
    He'd only be waiting on one result instead of 7. That's reducing risk in my book.

  18. #38
    Biased against YOUR club pineapple stu's Avatar
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    It'd be increasing his risk - all or nothing versus spread risk. You can work out expected results which would show the seven bets have a higher average expected outcome than the one bet.

  19. #39
    First Team brianw82's Avatar
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    Fair enough. Just pointing out that 5 pts profit is nothing to boast about when you risked 13.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by brianw82 View Post
    Fair enough. Just pointing out that 5 pts profit is nothing to boast about when you risked 13.
    He didnt risk 13 as such due to them being spread out. Not to mention the fact that you could only say after the event that Fingal -1 was safer. You'd swear they won 8-0, rather than 2-0

    I place dozens of bets each week and if I can get a consistent yield of 20% I'm delighted and would be considered an excellent gambler. He got returns of 18 pts for stake of 13 pts which is a lot better than that.

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