I'll just speak for myself here - I have seen dozens of goalkeepers playing for Ireland over the past 50+ years. Apart from Shay Given - we have two young, talented goalkeepers who are better than any other goalkeeper we have had during that period.Originally Posted by Jd2793
People can nit-pick about Bazunu and / or Kelleher - but remember we had goalies like Mick Kearns, Paddy Roche, Nick Colgan, David Forde, Wayne Henderson, Kieran Westwood etc - all decent lads who generally never let Ireland down - but none with the talent of Bazunu or Kelleher. We should be celebrating that these two goalkeepers are so good and are only going to get better.
Now - the lies, damned lies and statistics -
Southampton had an absolutely woeful defence last season - and that continued into this season. Southampton have conceded 47 goals this season - 20 of those were in the first 8 games of the season and another 15 in the last 7 games. In the 21 intervening games they conceded a total of 12 goals. The first 8 games the Southampton defence was a shambles and Bazunu was repeatedly exposed - in the last 7 games Southampton have hit a major hiccup, likely getting a bit ahead of themselves because of the good run they were on. Russell Martin's teams are not known for defending - they have the approach 'if you score 3, we will score 4' - and that is a major problem for any goalkeeper because they are constantly playing for a team that doesn't defend properly.
In contrast - WBA have conceded 11 fewer goals than Southampton. Alex Palmer is 27 years old - five years older than Bazunu and has spent pretty much his entire career bouncing around lower league teams on loan (and often as a back-up). I bet if you check the stats Palmer will have better 'stats' than Bazunu - but the reason for that is because WBA have a focus on not conceding goals. You put Bazunu into that WBA team and they would be at least in third spot if not in one of the two automatic spots. That defensive solidity is also the reason that if both WBA and Southampton are promoted, WBA are likely to do better in the PL - because Southampton will continue to ship a huge amount of goals because of the way that they play.
Bazunu has been excellent for Southampton this season - even during the recent hiccup. He makes at least one outstanding save per game, usually at a crucial time, and he has been one of the main reasons why Southampton are doing as well as they are (along with the form of both Armstrong and Adams).
Kelleher has also been excellent over the past few weeks (in 6 of the 7 PL games he has played). He too has made some crucial saves.
Let's celebrate the fact that these are two good goalkeepers - and again - I would give each of them a game in the friendlies.
the stats im using dont take into account play style. they account for the quality+likelihood of the shot on target the keeper faces going in.
but waffle away.
Mark Travers was a major factor in Bournemouth's 21/22 promotion. The best goalkeeper by a country mile in the Championship and was duly selected in its team of the season. Come Premiership time and, well, he was soon back in the Championship (on loan) - and shining again.
Southampton were atrocious in the EPL last season with Bazunu very much in the sum of their broken parts. Had Southampton anyone other than inept McCarthy then Bazunu would have been benched after 10 games.
So two young goalkeepers struggling badly at EPL level. Yet one is hyped and and the other is an afterthought, forgotten almost. Doesn't make sense. If Southampton are promoted, they'll need to make a big call on Bazunu.
Bazunu is integral to how Southampton want to play - he is effectively a goalkeeper and a sweeper. If they get promoted, they'll probably look at a backup keeper to Bazunu. Don't know the size of Southampton's budget, but an improvement on Bazunu that allows them to continue to play the way they do won't come cheap.
Last edited by ifk101; 13/03/2024 at 8:32 AM.
I think if the stats are as bad as they are, then they warrant more than the almost blanket dismissal they're getting here.
Certainly I'd be valuing them over his performance in the Dutch game (which was indeed decent).
Speaking of lies and damn lies, eh?
The bit in bold is nonsense with nothing to back it up. (Indeed, most of your post is you saying things you want to believe are true in the face of all available evidence to the contrary)
I think this is a good point. What the modern game wants from a keeper has changed. There's a few posters on the Southampton forum who would rather they had a keeper who could save a few shots than make some good passes though (and his distribution generally seems to be considered very good).
It does make sense because Travers' and Bazunu's situations aren't comparable really. Travers is an old school type of keeper. Big lad, good shot stopper, big boot on him. He'll thrive at Championship level whenever he plays there, but his strengths don't suit what 90% of Premier League teams are looking for from a keeper.
Whereas Bazunu is a Premier League keeper in terms of his style of play. He'll take more risks, and will get caught out sometimes - and moreso in the Premier League because the standard is higher - but teams will accept that because of the style of keeper he is. Travers seems like a really decent lad, but his only battle here is with Max O'Leary for the third choice keeper spot in the squad.
Keane O'Shea Given Best Smallbone
The prevented goal stat went down -1.4 because of the Sunderland game on saturday. Im not sure how anyone could watch that and say he should save those goals.
Last edited by Asterix; 13/03/2024 at 9:51 AM.
Both unstobbale imho. A deflection right into the bottom corner & a worldie from Bellingham started well beyond any keeper's reach. What did the post-shot XG say in each instance?
Whereas Bazunu is a Premier League keeper in terms of his style of play. He'll take more risks, and will get caught out sometimes - and moreso in the Premier League because the standard is higher - but teams will accept that because of the style of keeper he is. Travers seems like a really decent lad, but his only battle here is with Max O'Leary for the third choice keeper spot in the squad.[/QUOTE]
Last edited by Snapshot; 13/03/2024 at 10:20 AM.
That's just a tissue of excuses. It's akin to the soft landing afforded forwards who don't score - they create space, run the channels, put forward pressure etc etc. Nice, but how about scoring a few goals.
Yes, the game has developed, roles have changed, evolved, whatever. But the goalkeeper's primary job is still to stop stoppable shots and command his area. Always was, always will be.
Give or take a clanger or two, Bazunu has come good in the Championship because Southampton are a top team there and, from what I've seen, the opposition plays deep against them. The pressure has been considerably reduced on Bazunu at a considerably lower standard of football.
I'm unconvinced Bazunu will not struggle again if Southampton are promoted - and I believe most Southampton fans are of the same opinion.
Wonder how Ireland will set up.....will distribution be as important moving forward?
I'd still have Kelleher and Bazunu over Travers but if we were looking for a pure shot stopper who could lump it long with the best of them, would Travers be above Bazunu in the pecking order?
This is not a serious question........I mean I really hope it's not a serious possibility......but.......fans do want us to get back to being hard to beat.....
21 leagues and 25 cups.
What is Kellehers career/season xGA performance out of interest? Not challenging any of the perspectives here (outside of what i already have posted), just interested in how he fares over a similar data sample... I do remember seeing some impressive sounding stats after the Chelsea game.
I am with JRG on this one and give them a game each. Belgium and Switzerland are good teams who on current form should batter Ireland and keep the keepers busy and we will see how they handle the pressure.
Both are good keepers and its just the other 10 players that are the problem !
Well you can't have a similar data sample because of course Kelleher has played far fewer games, but fbref.com has him at +1.2 in 7 league games this year. It only does league games, so no League Cup final
I have a feeling it doesn't adjust for deflections, which seems a bit silly but would account for the first goal being so low. That's just a hunch though - and it would impact other keepers the same way of course, so at least the overall stat is comparable across keepers.
A flip side of that then is that the goal where he was caught in possession in his own box was given as PSxG of 0.99 because it was an open goal - technically true, but doesn't capture that the keeper had made a howler.
The second Sunderland goal would been a fantastic save, but then keepers do pull off fantastic saves from time to time. Part of the concern expressed is that his footwork isn't great (again see the l'Equipe article based on France's scouting last year), so he can at times not be in the best position to make the save in the first place. A step to the side can make a huge difference in some cases.
That last paragraph is just pure sophistry. Unless he'd been standing in the wrong position to start with he or any keeper wouldn't have saved it. Again, the fact that you don't just concede that it was a worldie of a goal and instead invoke your favourite French magazine comment or a bit of clever wordsmithery just tells me you're totally lacking objectivity in this discussion.
This is probably the best thing written.We've got two excellent young keepers.
I wouldn't put too much weight into the numbers re Bazunu. I think we all need to recognise how basic and limited the numbers are at this stage. Most Premier League teams have their own proprietary systems, where the numbers look very different to the publicly available figures. I watch a lot of baseball - and stats models are a huge part of the game. Even over the last decade, things have moved on to the extent that everything we thought we knew was wrong. And baseball is relatively straight forward, a series of set pieces. The one thing that baseball struggles with is defensive metrics - if a fielder is good - and there’s acknowledgement in the sport that the numbers, while improving, just aren’t that reliable. And really what they’re attempting to understand is a lot easier than anything on a football pitch - and they have a history of analytics for over 30 years - and each team has dozens of data analysts working them. There’s the numbers and then there’s the interpretation of the numbers. I remember seeing a week or two ago that Haaland was 4th or 5th worse in the goals scored - xG, which is the strikers equivalent of what Bazunu is being tested on (people worse than him were Darwin Nunez, Ollie Watkins and Dominic Calvert Lewin). Yet no one would claim for a second that Haaland, Nunez, Watkins and DCL are the worst strikers in the league. Obviously, it’s not exactly like for like given strikers tend to be more influential in creating their own goals scored than keepers do in their own goals conceded) - but it does nonetheless quickly illustrate the limitations in the data.
As for whoever said ‘Kelleher has played a handful of games again this season’ - Kelleher has started 20 games this season. Of all our premier league players, that puts him 4th overall for starts in all comps.
O’Shea 27
Collins 23
Ogbene 22
Kelleher 20
Ferguson 18
Cullen 15
Omobamidele 10
Doherty 9
Egan 7
Coleman 4
Travers 3 (for Bournemouth)
Sarcasm and bluster are sure-fire ways to show you don't really have a point Stutts.
The second Sunderland goal was a great strike and I don't blame him at all for not saving it. But the reality is, over a large enough data sample, those shots are sometimes saved. That's the point of big data - to get away from the obvious howlers and work out how often he saves the (to use a phrase you've used before on here) the 30/70 shots.
Kelleher has been excellent, playing behind a very good defense, but hes been excellent.
Bazunu is constantly good over the course of a few seasons now, while playing behind an awful defense. Hes been good in an Ireland shirt too and has been rightly our #1 to this point.
1 game each in this window seems fair enough to me. Maybe even the same in the 2 summer games. Then we take stock where both are going into the NL games. If we are in a status quo where Kelleher his back to collecting splinters then Bazunu will be our starter most likely.
Kelleher has done enough these past few weeks that he is good enough to be a 1st choice goalkeeper for someone so I hope he doesnt go back to the bench next season, but its very possible he does.
We are going to be having this debate for the next 10 years most likely. Some posters could do with putting away their biases.
Its really not that complicated!!!
I like to see Kellegher play the upcoming friendlies. We have plenty of evidence of what Bazunu can do - even if we can't agree what that is here - and it's of maximum use to an incoming manager to see the qualities of a viable alternative. It might also give Kellegher an additional chance to build his name in preparation for a move that would see him play regularly, which is good for us. There's little enough upside to seeing another Bazunu cap in the friendlies. If these were competitive games, I'd be much more wary of changing things up.
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