Republic of Ireland V Latvia - Wednesday, 22nd March 2023 - Friendly

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 17/03/2023, 2:25 PM

Originally Posted by Demesne Lad

If Kenny was managing France, and had in his squad 3 players from Bayern Munich, 3 from Milan, 2 from Real Madrid and one each from Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Borussia MG, Chelsea, Frankfurt, Liverpool, Lens, Leverkusen, Marseille, Monaco, Nice, Paris SG and West Ham, I'd be expecting him to deliver a comfortable win against Ireland.

If he was in charge of France against Ireland in 2009, would you expect a comfortable win with this team:

Lloris, Sagna, Gallas, Escude, Evra, Lassana Diarra, Alou Diarra, Gourcuff, Anelka, Gignac, Henry.
Subs: Mandanda, Govou, Benzema, Sissoko, Malouda, Squillaci

**DCWA** · 17/03/2023, 2:48 PM

Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

If he was in charge of France against Ireland in 2009, would you expect a comfortable win with this team:

Lloris, Sagna, Gallas, Escude, Evra, Lassana Diarra, Alou Diarra, Gourcuff, Anelka, Gignac, Henry.
Subs: Mandanda, Govou, Benzema, Sissoko, Malouda, Squillaci

The answer to that frankly is no. That is way, way off their current squad.

**SkStu** · 17/03/2023, 2:54 PM

Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

No, it's Kenny's fault we have a tough draw

Is it though? Seems unfair. We could equally have found ourselves in a group with Hungary, Israel, Greece and Gibraltar where we'd be having a totally different discussion. Would he get credit for that?

**Eirambler** · 17/03/2023, 3:04 PM

We could also have been second seeds if we had performed better in the Nations League. Especially in what was a relatively kind group in the circumstances. That's on Kenny - he absolutely ballsed up the first two games of that campaign in particular (and had another disaster in the last game, albeit we scraped home in that one), and that's why we are where we are now.

Yes, we could have got a kinder group as third seeds. But we could also have removed the issue entirely by performing in the Nations League. It was a case of Kenny's mistakes finally catching up with him unfortunately. Now he needs to figure out a way out of it, and quickly. First step - get a result at home to France.

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 17/03/2023, 3:55 PM

Originally Posted by SkStu

Is it though? Seems unfair. We could equally have found ourselves in a group with Hungary, Israel, Greece and Gibraltar where we'd be having a totally different discussion. Would he get credit for that?

If he got us to second seeds he would have got us a far kinder draw and bucket loads of credit.

**elatedscum** · 17/03/2023, 3:58 PM

Originally Posted by Eirambler

We could also have been second seeds if we had performed better in the Nations League. Especially in what was a relatively kind group in the circumstances.

Relatively kind group? Ukraine were the highest ranked team overall across League B. Look at the group after us (B2):

1st seed Iceland
2nd seed Russia (2 walkovers)
3rd seed Israel (could have been us)
4th seed Albania

Israel won the group and are now guaranteed a playoff

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 17/03/2023, 4:05 PM

Originally Posted by DCWA

The answer to that frankly is no. That is way, way off their current squad.

Not really and Ireland managed to beat that team in France! So let's not paint this as impossible. They've drawn to Bosnia, Austria, Ukraine, lost to Denmark twice, all within the last couple of years.

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 17/03/2023, 4:10 PM

Originally Posted by elatedscum

Relatively kind group? Ukraine were the highest ranked team overall across League B. Look at the group after us (B2):

1st seed Iceland
2nd seed Russia (2 walkovers)
3rd seed Israel (could have been us)
4th seed Albania

Israel won the group and are now guaranteed a playoff

There was something big going on in Ukraine. You might have heard about it? Scotland won the group. Are they full of superstars? Instead of coming ahead of those 2, we came close to coming behind Armenia. Can anyone list the clubs their players play for?

**SkStu** · 17/03/2023, 4:14 PM

Originally Posted by Eirambler

We could also have been second seeds if we had performed better in the Nations League. Especially in what was a relatively kind group in the circumstances. That's on Kenny - he absolutely ballsed up the first two games of that campaign in particular (and had another disaster in the last game, albeit we scraped home in that one), and that's why we are where we are now.

Yes, we could have got a kinder group as third seeds. But we could also have removed the issue entirely by performing in the Nations League. It was a case of Kenny's mistakes finally catching up with him unfortunately. Now he needs to figure out a way out of it, and quickly. First step - get a result at home to France.

I think we have to keep expectations a bit in check though, no? I took some time to go through the last 8 qualifying rounds to see where we usually fall. Out of the 8, we've been 3rd pot 6 times, once each in the 2nd and 4th pot. While performing better in the NL could have increased our chances, we would have had to have climbed 5 full spots in the rankings. Not many other managers have manage their way up to second ranking over that time period.

Below looks at (L-R) - tournament; seeding/pot; year of assessment; ranking at time of assessment (note that the ranking for Euros is different).

WC 2010 – 3rd pot (2007) – 35
Euro 2012 – 3rd seeds (2009) – 25*
WC 2014 – 3rd seeds (2011) – 33
Euro 2016 – 2nd seeds (2014) – 19*
WC 2018 – 4th seeds (2015) – 42
Euro 2020 – 3rd seeds (2018) – 23*
WC 2022 – 3rd seeds (2020) – 52
Euro 2024 – 3rd seeds (2022) – 26*

Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

If he got us to second seeds he would have got us a far kinder draw and bucket loads of credit.

You're kind of missing the point I'm making is that the draw itself is luck, not management. Seeding makes a difference but see my note above.

**Eirambler** · 17/03/2023, 4:17 PM

Originally Posted by elatedscum

Relatively kind group? Ukraine were the highest ranked team overall across League B. Look at the group after us (B2):

1st seed Iceland
2nd seed Russia (2 walkovers)
3rd seed Israel (could have been us)
4th seed Albania

Israel won the group and are now guaranteed a playoff

"In the circumstances". Ukraine were in the early stages of a war. In addition for the home game they played mostly a second string because they had just played a World Cup playoff. And we got the away leg at a neutral venue. Armenia were utter crap (and we still lost to them) and Scotland are no great shakes either. It was a handy enough group, we should have probably won it, or at an absolute minimum been top 2 with a high points total that would have got us in as second seeds and guaranteed a playoff. Instead it was a complete mess, in particular the first two games and the last one.

**paul_oshea** · 17/03/2023, 4:18 PM

Originally Posted by Razors left peg

Considering we now have the squad now, as much as some want to argue over it, how would ye approach the 2 games?

If it was my choice Id be starting our team for the France game against Latvia and make changes after an hour. The time for experimentation is over, it's sh1t or get off the pot time and we should be trying to get as settled a team as possible in the next few games. I hope we have a bit better luck with injuries this campaign too, it felt like we were always missing a few players last time around.

Moving into match week I'm starting to get excited about the games. I'd love to be flying home for them, it's the one big thing I miss living so far away.

I wouldn't be too down about it razor, there's lads much closer who don't fly home for it ; )

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 17/03/2023, 4:23 PM

Originally Posted by SkStu

I think we have to keep expectations a bit in check though, no? I took some time to go through the last 8 qualifying rounds to see where we usually fall. Out of the 8, we've been 3rd pot 6 times, once each in the 2nd and 4th pot. While performing better in the NL could have increased our chances, we would have had to have climbed 5 full spots in the rankings. Not many other managers have manage their way up to second ranking over that time period.

Below looks at (L-R) - tournament; seeding/pot; year of assessment; ranking at time of assessment (note that the ranking for Euros is different).

WC 2010 – 3rd pot (2007) – 35
Euro 2012 – 3rd seeds (2009) – 25*
WC 2014 – 3rd seeds (2011) – 33
Euro 2016 – 2nd seeds (2014) – 19*
WC 2018 – 4th seeds (2015) – 42
Euro 2020 – 3rd seeds (2018) – 23*
WC 2022 – 3rd seeds (2020) – 52
Euro 2024 – 3rd seeds (2022) – 26*

You're kind of missing the point I'm making is that the draw itself is luck, not management. Seeding makes a difference but see my note above.

I was saying we got a tough draw because Kenny failed to reach his own expectation of winning the Nations League group. He came nowhere near.

**SkStu** · 17/03/2023, 4:35 PM

Ive made the same point a few times, i'll give it one more go

The draw is happening:
Scenario 1 (Ireland in 3rd pot): Hungary, Israel, Ireland, Greece, Gibraltar
Scenario 2 (Ireland in 2nd pot): Holland, Ireland, Ukraine, Greece, Gibraltar

Which of these would you prefer for qualification purposes? And which of these scenarios would be a matter of credit to the manager v. luck of the draw?

**JR89** · 17/03/2023, 4:40 PM

Scotland are second seeds and could well be battling it out with Georgia for third spot in the group.

**Eirambler** · 17/03/2023, 4:44 PM

They're also guaranteed a playoff. And their rivals for second, while I appreciate they have a reasonably well known striker in the squad, haven't qualified for a finals tournament in almost a quarter of a century.

**tetsujin1979** · 17/03/2023, 5:20 PM

Euro 2020?

**paul_oshea** · 17/03/2023, 5:29 PM

Originally Posted by SkStu

Is it though? Seems unfair. We could equally have found ourselves in a group with Hungary, Israel, Greece and Gibraltar where we'd be having a totally different discussion. Would he get credit for that?

It's Paddy's Day but I'm not drinking. I might need to drink some to make that sensible : D. Probability and statistics stu

**DCWA** · 17/03/2023, 5:35 PM

Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

Not really and Ireland managed to beat that team in France! So let's not paint this as impossible. They've drawn to Bosnia, Austria, Ukraine, lost to Denmark twice, all within the last couple of years.

Yes, really.

However I do in general agree with the rest of your post. Whilst expecting nothing France do regularly have slip ups in qualifying and I am hoping they are feeling a bit of post WC fatigue… or something like that…

**SkStu** · 17/03/2023, 5:45 PM

Originally Posted by paul_oshea

It's Paddy's Day but I'm not drinking. I might need to drink some to make that sensible : D. Probability and statistics stu

You'll figure it out. I have confidence in you

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 17/03/2023, 5:46 PM

Originally Posted by SkStu

Ive made the same point a few times, i'll give it one more go

The draw is happening:
Scenario 1 (Ireland in 3rd pot): Hungary, Israel, Ireland, Greece, Gibraltar
Scenario 2 (Ireland in 2nd pot): Holland, Ireland, Ukraine, Greece, Gibraltar

Which of these would you prefer for qualification purposes? And which of these scenarios would be a matter of credit to the manager v. luck of the draw?

Scotland won the group. They are in with Spain, Norway, Georgia and Cyprus. Would you prefer to be in their group?