Has had a nightmare here. Awful howler for Sunderland’s 3rd as Southampton go in 3 down at HT
A big decision coming up for Stephen Kenny.Originally Posted by DCWA
Bigger decision for Russell Martin. He really put his neck on the line for him and if it was Gavin’s intention to test if his manager really meant what he said then he’s done a good job of that.
Was he culpable for any of the other goals?
I didn’t see the first two, for the 4th no, he actually made a decent save a second before that one but his defence let him down, for the 5th was powerful downward header, maybe could have got something to it but would be very harsh to say culpable.
Worryingly for Southampton he did actually make a couple of good to very good saves as well.
Looking at the Southampton forum and they're calling out Holgate in particular as one of the worst debuts they've seen.
Manning and Bazunu not getting much love either though. Bazunu's problem I think is he's had too many howlers at this stage. Made a couple of decent saves second half, question marks over whether he's effective at getting the ball to safety from them though. Couple of comments that Schmeichel and even de Gea are free agents.
And usual caveat that their forum is rant central.
Could see Southampton sliding to mid-table though. It's only their first defeat of the season but they've lost a lot of players in the transfer window and not sure they've come close to replacing them
I deleted a post above in order to repost it because I spelt “shot” wrong (with an i) and couldn’t edit it from my phone for some reason. It was just after the 3rd and I was critical of his effort. The first wasn’t unsaveable, but odds heavily favoured the scorer. Second looked like he was slow down on first glance but he gets a pass because he’d have seen the shot was going wide initially, delaying his reaction. Third was just soft - despite being unsighted he did see it early enough to save it but just didn’t. No blame for fourth or fifth but my frustration with him right now is that he’s just not making any 30/70 saves, none at all. The first and fifth were 30/70 imho. And the third was a 90/10. I also thought his save from the free kick at 2-0 was sloppy, nervous looking.
I’m not worried about him for Ireland because I think he’s more confident playing for us.
Southampton’s defence is dire though. Manning’s flank looked vulnerable all game and though Smallbone had some elegant moments he didn’t make an impression on the game. Got injured at the end too.
Def not culpable, but he did actually get something on it I think, nearky getting it into the post. Today one goal was really poor but he leaves a few “missed opportunity for great save” moments out there. I’d like to see him start making a few more of these.
Sounds like you spelled it correctly so ?
I think that's fair. I was expecting worse for the third goal tbh - it's weak rather than a real through-the-hands howler. But it's 12 goals against from 23 shots on target this season. **** all you can do about goals like the fourth (there's a defender all but dummies the ball in the six yard box) but it's an unusually high percentage of shots to goals that can't all be on the defence.
True Stu, he’s definitely leaving something out there.
But I know you didn’t cite it here but the relevance of of XG vs actual goals was shown up in the first half. At 2-0 Sunderland’s XG came up as 0.33. So goals against we’re 6x the expected value. But goal one was at least 70% of a certain goal, and goal two was 0% of an expected goal - it was wide! So any goal conceded from a 0% XG is a nonsense number. I know that’s an average of 35% but surely it’s the total that counts.
But subjectively I’d liked to have seen a couple of big saves today and in previous weeks.
Did the Southampton owners really expect Russell Martin to change their defensive woes. Swansea couldn't defend to save their lives and even at MK Dons it was you score two we'll score three type of defending. In his 179 games as manager before Southampton his team's have conceded 248 goals while scoring 246. He'll get you goals but his team's will also ship goals.
Don't get you on that - how was it wide? Was it deflected on target? That shouldn't matter I'd have thought.
Though in a way, you've been evaluating him using PSxG when describing saves as 30/70 - that's effectively what that stat is.
And then we can reduce to something human we can agree on, like "I’d liked to have seen a couple of big saves today and in previous weeks."
The shot was initially going wide, then deflected inward. So I’d love to know what the XG was of that incident.
And if the first chance was a very high likelihood of scoring how come XG a bit later on in the game was only .33?
But I don’t know how it’s calculated tbh, maybe it’s more holistic than simple quality of chances. Maybe, for example, the XG of the second goal was “measured” before the strike.
And more generally, an actual goals to expected goals ratio of 6x in only 2 goals renders the statistic a bit meaningless imho.
Yeah, xG is measured before the strike alright (that's the theory anyway). So from that distance, you might have - to make up some figures - 30% of shots going in, 50% of them being saved, and 20% going wide. xG is 0.3. It shouldn't be nil so far as I'm aware.
That's a measure of the forward though, because of course the shots that go wide have nothing to do with the keeper. You or I wouldn't let them in. So PSxG (post-shot xG) is I think the subset of xG given that the shot was on target. In the above case, it'd be the keeper saved 62.5% of the shots and lets in 37.5% (ie 5/8 and 3/8)
I think anyway. It certainly shouldn't be nil in any case. Don't know where you saw that?
post shot xg or expected goals on target is a better measure for a keeper. those 2 goals are very poor on bazunus part. quite worried about his performances now tbh. he shouldnt unquestionable be no.1 anymore imo
Interesting stoke lost 0-2 and Travers still got a 7 out 10
One wonders if a new manager comes in. Will travers jump to our number 1?
The Southampton defence is absolutely woeful - not just in their ability to defend, but their ability to act as a unit, to understand their job, and to understand that it is their job to stop attackers getting off easy shots and free headers. But it doesn't stop there - the Southampton midfield is just as bad in not understanding that it is also their job to track back and engage in defensive duties.
And here is the problem - they sold Livramento a couple of weeks ago (and Bella-Kotchap went to Holland on loan) - and did nothing else to try and fix one of the worst defenses that played in the PL. Manning is not known for his defensive prowess. Holgate didn't exactly light up the Championship last season at WBA. Now Harwood-Bellis might make a difference - but it is noteworthy that Burnley didn't choose to take him again this season in the PL.
JR89 is right - Martin's teams have always operated on the basis of 'we will score more than youse' - and it is likely that there will be 5-0 wins and 0-5 defeats scattered throughout the season.
It can be said that a defense is better if it has confidence in the goalkeeper - but it works both ways. Bazunu cannot expect the Southampton defence to actually defend - it must be having an impact on him.
1st goal - a minute into the game - and the Southampton defence allow an attacker to run around behind them and get a free header. Maybe Bazunu could have tried to come out an cut out the cross - but any goalie would have expected a defender to track the attacker and challenge for the ball. It would have been a spectacular save to have been able to stop the header. So after 1 minute Bazunu is there now having to second-guess himself every time the ball comes near the Southampton box.
2nd goal - Nobody closed down the Sunderland player allowing him a free shot - Bazunu was unsighted and it took a deflection - no chance to save it. 7 minutes in and you are two down and as a goalie you know its going to get worse.
3rd goal - Same player with the same shot from outside the box - Holgate gave the ball away and made no effort to get back - nobody closed him down and again Bazunu was unsighted - maybe he could have got down a bit quicker - but I wouldn't blame him for that one either.
4th goal - so they let a goal in right at the end of the first half - and let another one in at the start of the second-half. Nobody tracks the winger and he has all day to cross the ball - three defenders look at it and give the Sunderland player a free header from the six-yard line - Bazunu makes a terrific reflex save and gets the ball out wide - no Southampton player goes after it to clear or to block the shot - and it is bundled over the line.
5th goal - and Bazunu must really have been fed up at this stage - Southampton give the ball away - make no effort to get it back - the winger again has all day to cross it - the Southampton defenders look at it going over their heads and they allow a 16-year-old an unchallenged header. I do think Bazunu could have saved this one, he did get a hand on it - but by that stage what difference did it make. It is worth noting that the first and last goals were two textbook headers - back across the goal and into the ground.
All of this must be very frustrating for Bazunu. I thought that the move to Southampton was a good one - I think Hassenhuttl is a good coach - but their transfer policy was a shambles last season. They bought a pile of kids, banking on potential rather than ensuring that they had a spine of the team of seasoned PL players (which every team needs). They sacked Hassenhuttl after 14 games when they had 12 points - half of what they got over the entire season - and bring in Jones who proceeds to oversee 8 losses in 9 games - and they ended up selling the two best young players they brought in at the start of the season because they got because they got relegated. I do think that if they had stuck with Hassenhuttl he could have drag them out of the relegation zone. Jones is a donkey and Southampton were doomed the day he was made manager. The team recovered somewhat after Jones was sacked - because Sellas went back to the methods used by Hassenhuttl - but the damage was done by the appointment of Jones.
Irrespective of who Southampton bring in - unless the coaching staff sort out what the defense is supposed to be doing little will change - and the problem is that it will impact on Bazunu and his development as a keeper. But he is still only 21 - goalkeepers don't reach their peak until they head towards 30 - he still has a lot to learn and he seems to be very level-headed. Hopefully playing in front of that Southampton defence doesn't do too much damage in the process.
I disagree - when you leave attackers the time to set-up a shot unchallenged and your goalkeeper is unsighted - then the fault for the goal lies solidly on the defence. Both shots yesterday were from central positions and ended up in the corner of the goal - Bazunu had to dive from his position in the middle of the goal, full-length to try and reach it and he could only move after it came through a crowd of players when he got sight of it.
It is also worth noting that Southampton had almost 70% possession yesterday - but did nothing with it except become complacent every time they lost the ball. The difference in the game was that Sunderland closed down the Southampton attackers - didn't let them get unchallenged crosses in, didn't give them time to set-up shots from outside the box etc. Bazunu made one outstanding save at 4-0 when Southampton gave the ball away (Holgate again) and the Sunderland player had a free run on goal from the half-way line - and a couple of other good saves - it could have been 7-0 or 8-0 if the goalkeeping was as poor as the defending.
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