Stephen Kenny

[paul_oshea]

I don't know if anyone can pull up the stats in terms of age of the starting team in Scotland, but it must be one of the youngest ever too? Only McClean and Doherty over 30? I think Kenny still deserves credit for what he's trying to do and the players he's bringing through. But, I've said before, I'm not sure he's going to survive long enough to be the manager who benefits from it.

If you were to graph kennys reign and bring it to a board of performance reviewers how do you think that would look?

[Real ale Madrid]

What's this 4th campaign nonsense? Its his second campaign - Kenny's primary remit is to qualify us for Euro 2024, if we qualify then great - if not he will be let go. We've transitioned to a team who could barely score a goal early in his reign, to a now inconsistent side who are capable of big results - the next step is to play well consistently over the course of a campaign and that will mean results like Armenia away which has crippled our Nations League chances will be intolerable. I don't understand the calls now for him to be sacked tbh - particularly off the back of our last 3 performances. We are clearly improving performance wise.

[Real ale Madrid]

If you were to graph kennys reign and bring it to a board of performance reviewers how do you think that would look?

Nations League 2020-21:
League B
Seeded 3rd in group of 4. Finished 3rd

2022 FIFA World Cup Qualification:
Group A
Seeded 3rd in group of 5. Finished 3rd

Nations League 2022-23:
League B
Seeded 3rd in group of 4. Finished 3rd (Probably)

[pineapple stu]

What's this 4th campaign nonsense? Its his second campaign

Euro 2024 qualifying will be Kenny's fourth campaign in charge.

Unless you're ignoring the Nations League, which makes no sense.

[Real ale Madrid]

Euro 2024 qualifying will be Kenny's fourth campaign in charge.

Unless you're ignoring the Nations League, which makes no sense.

I'm not ignoring it - Nations League is intertwined with Qualification. Qualification is the goal. That's how he will be judged.

People are comparing 2 x NL and 2 x Qualifications with 4 x past qualifications by stating that this is his "4th campaign" is not reflective of reality imo. It becomes a lot more important if you are in League C mind you.

[paul_oshea]

Nations League 2020-21:
League B
Seeded 3rd in group of 4. Finished 3rd

2022 FIFA World Cup Qualification:
Group A
Seeded 3rd in group of 5. Finished 3rd

Nations League 2022-23:
League B
Seeded 3rd in group of 4. Finished 3rd (Probably)

Thats why data has become such big business. Drill down into the finer details like games over windows, start of campaigns, second half performances...It would be a graph of multiple confidence intervals.

[pineapple stu]

I'm not ignoring it - Nations League is intertwined with Qualification. Qualification is the goal. That's how he will be judged.

People are comparing 2 x NL and 2 x Qualifications with 4 x past qualifications by stating that this is his "4th campaign" is not reflective of reality imo. It becomes a lot more important if you are in League C mind you.

Don't agree with that. Nations League is a campaign in its own right. It's a separate tournament with its own rewards (promotion, which he said was the target at the start of this group).

Yes, it links into Euro qualifying (sometimes - his first campaign didn't for example), and yes, it's different to how prior managers were judged - but things change, and evaluations need to adjust. Six games (the current Nations League) was a full qualifying campaign in 1992 for example.

To say it's nonsense that Kenny is going into his second campaign now is...well, nonsense.

[Real ale Madrid]

Don't agree with that. Nations League is a campaign in its own right. It's a separate tournament with its own rewards (promotion, which he said was the target at the start of this group).

Yes, it links into Euro qualifying (sometimes - his first campaign didn't for example), and yes, it's different to how prior managers were judged - but things change, and evaluations need to adjust. To say it's nonsense that Kenny is going into his second campaign now is...well, nonsense.

The campaign to qualify is split into 2 phases - a NL phase and a Qualification phase. Its not nonsense to evaluate each campaign at the end of each - that's how practically every Irish manager has been evaluated and that's how they will continue to be evaluated. The format has changed, the end goal has not. If you are going to stop now and judge manager at the end of every 6 NL games as is being intimated in previous posts citing the start of his 4th campaign then you are missing the point of the main goal.

Would we prefer to win the NL, get promoted to League A, finish 3rd in Qual and lose a playoff:

or

Finish 3rd in the NL and finish 2nd in Qual.

Kenny loses his job in scenario A, not in scenario B.

The NL is a great idea and has breathed a bit of life into international football but the main aim for teams save for those at the very top of the tree is the qualify for the big tournaments and that's how success and failure are judged over qualification campaigns.

[pineapple stu]

No-one's saying you have to stop and evaluate a manager after each six NL games, but it's not necessarily a bad idea either. And I think it's entirely reasonable to take the NL separately when building up a bigger picture.

If you choose to take the NL as an extension of qualifying, then you're effectively giving Kenny around half as much time again as others before evaluating him. That doesn't seem reasonable.

There may be an argument for grouping the two together, but it certainly isn't "nonsense" to consider the two NL campaigns as separate competitions and to say Kenny is starting into his fourth campaign

[weldoninhio]

The younger team is significant though. It's not just young, it's historically young. A footballer probably peaks between 28 and 30 yet here we've a team average under 25. That suggests we're at least 3 years from the team reaching its peak. It's a crude measure, but it's not insignificant in terms of rebuilding. The Euros qualifiers will be a big test and after that we should see the team peaking coming into world cup qualification. That's not to say results don't matter, of course they do, but it's more to add to the point that this is a huge rebuild and there's every chance that Kenny is laying foundations that someone else will likely see the real benefit of.

This ?huge rebuild? is the biggest red herring I?ve ever seen. He?s playing the players available to him. Any other manager would have to play them because there aren?t any others. He?s not getting the best out of them whatsoever. We aren?t hard to beart, we aren?t setting the world on going forward, we pass around the middle and the back to pad the stats, then fire if long you try to score. Same as every other manager we?ve ever had.

You?d swear Kenny was Wenger or Pep the way some go on about him. He?s had more than enough time. After tonight it?s time for him to go. Bohs is about his level and they are looking a manager.

[brine3]

Euro 2024 qualifying will be Kenny's fourth campaign in charge.

Unless you're ignoring the Nations League, which makes no sense.

Nations League is just a bunch of glorified friendlies... I hardly pay attention to it.

[Stuttgart88]

Nations League is just a bunch of glorified friendlies... I hardly pay attention to it.

I don't agree. You only need to look at how many fans of certain countries have really bought into it. Regardless of the escape hatch it offers in terms of qualification it's far better than friendlies to pitch yourselves against opposition of a roughly comparable standard and take stock.

We were brutal in Yerevan. Poor at home to Ukraine - where I maintain our keeper should have done a lot better for the only goal. Good against Scotland where we rode our early luck and then turned in a great display and scored nice goals. Uklraine away was a very good outing. Scotland away was actually a good performance. You can argue it's a results business all day long but you'd want to produce a convincing argument to persuade me that our 0-0 in Denmark was better than the 2-1 defeat in Scotland, for example.

I think breaking Kenny's tenure into 3 blocks as suggested above is the right way of looking at things. I think only now are we seeing the type of squad we envisaged when he first took over which was arguably too early as the players earmarked for his era weren't ready yet. Block 1 was bad but with mitigants. Block 2 was moderate to bad and block 3 is much more encouraging. I think when even Liam Brady is now seeing the positive direction then it should be clear that there really is something good being built. Ken Early wrote about this yesterday.

Failing to win tonight will be disastrous, no debate there.

But assuming we win I have no reservations about Kenny taking the team into the Euros. It'll still be a hit and miss campaign I reckon simply because we have a team of 23 year olds playing in an unforgiving environment. I think by the end of the Euro campaign the squad will be in good shape and I think - as said above - a new manager if needed will have a better squad to work with.

Brian Barry Murphy is the guy I'd be keeping an eye on if Kenny doesn't surive the Euro campaign.

[pineapple stu]

Nations League 2020-21:
League B
Seeded 3rd in group of 4. Finished 3rd

2022 FIFA World Cup Qualification:
Group A
Seeded 3rd in group of 5. Finished 3rd

Nations League 2022-23:
League B
Seeded 3rd in group of 4. Finished 3rd (Probably)

I think also btw this is a really shallow analysis.

It doesn't allow that we were pretty much out of the hunt right at the start and never remotely challenged for the top spots in any of those campaigns.

It doesn't allow for some of our worst-ever results being racked up (in particular home v Luxembourg and Azerbaijan, away v Armenia)

It doesn't allow for the lucky draw we got in terms of the seeds just below us (an awful Bulgaria, Luxembourg as a fourth seed, Armenia this time)

It doesn't allow for our awful goalscoring record (which you can in part place on having no forwards of course)

It doesn't allow for the decline in our world ranking (from 37th to 45th per Eloratings, having at least picked up from a low of 58th after the Azerbaijan draw)

It doesn't allow for Portugal resting players at home against us because they wanted to focus on the Serbia game three days later.

passinginterest at the start said "I think Kenny still deserves credit for what he's trying to do and the players he's bringing through. But, I've said before, I'm not sure he's going to survive long enough to be the manager who benefits from it" and I think the first part is definitely reasonable and the second part, while obviously conjecture, is probably fair too.

But saying we've met our seeding each time so things are grand glosses over quite a lot.

[Real ale Madrid]

There may be an argument for grouping the two together, but it certainly isn't "nonsense" to consider the two NL campaigns as separate competitions and to say Kenny is starting into his fourth campaign

In my opinion it is nonsense - its contrived IMO to make SK look worse than he is - he has failed in 3 campaigns and is now starting a 4th , instead of what should be a narrative - phase one is over and lets judge him at the end of the qualifying campaign.

[pineapple stu]

But tonight is his 21st competitive game in charge - that cannot possibly be "phase 1". No Ireland manager has ever had a 21-game "Phase 1"

[TonyD]

This ?huge rebuild? is the biggest red herring I?ve ever seen. He?s playing the players available to him. Any other manager would have to play them because there aren?t any others. He?s not getting the best out of them whatsoever. We aren?t hard to beart, we aren?t setting the world on going forward, we pass around the middle and the back to pad the stats, then fire if long you try to score. Same as every other manager we?ve ever had.

You?d swear Kenny was Wenger or Pep the way some go on about him. He?s had more than enough time. After tonight it?s time for him to go. Bohs is about his level and they are looking a manager.

But it was, and is,a huge rebuild. How can you deny that ? You’re right, any incoming manager would have had to do the same, and yeah, probably pretty much the same players would have been introduced, though maybe not as many as early. Would another manager have done better along the way ? Possibly. It’s arguable either way in my view. But there was always going to be inconsistency and poor performances along the way. Wee have had good performances too, despite what some would have you believe.

And please, can we stop with the “people are going on like he’s Klopp or Guardiola” nonsense. No they aren’t. No one has ever said that, ever. All some have said is that he deserves more time. I still believe that. To resurrect talk of sacking him after the last 3 games in particular is bizarre. Don’t you think those performances have seen a marked improvement ? Ok, calling for his head after Luxembourg or Armenia away was understandable, but it makes little sense when we look like we’re improving, and the team are still clearly playing for him.

[jbyrne]

But tonight is his 21st competitive game in charge - that cannot possibly be "phase 1". No Ireland manager has ever had a 21-game "Phase 1"

id argue the mick mc carthy term 1 got quite a lengthy period of grace given the large re-build that was required.
culminated in wc qualification

[Real ale Madrid]

I think also btw this is a really shallow analysis.

It is tbf - but the question posed was a performance analysis. And my post lays out a factual representation of performances to date. Its very much a PASS mark to date for me.

You can of course dig deeper.

It doesn't allow that we were pretty much out of the hunt right at the start and never remotely challenged for the top spots in any of those campaigns.

That is true and is SK's biggest litmus test going forward - next March. However our performances in some games have been under huge pressure with his job hanging in the balance towards the second half of world cup qualification - I think if you look at all the performances throughout the campaign - if you are to point out the bad on balance you should mention good performances also.

It doesn't allow for some of our worst-ever results being racked up (in particular home v Luxembourg and Azerbaijan, away v Armenia)

It doesn't allow either for some of our best competitive results in years, we beat Scotland 3-0 - our biggest competitive home win since 2014,our first home win against a higher ranked nation since 2016 and Troy Parrott became our youngest competitive goal scorer since 2006. We also drew with the World No.1 ranked team albeit in a friendly and a host of other good results - comprehensive away wins in Azerbaijan and Luxemburg and good results against Portugal Serbia and Ukraine - all sides ranked higher than us.

It doesn't allow for the lucky draw we got in terms of the seeds just below us (an awful Bulgaria, Luxembourg as a fourth seed, Armenia this time)

It also doesn't allow for the fact that we could have ended up in a 3 team group with Iceland and Albania for the 22-23 NL. I don't understand this point at all tbh. Lets take WCQ as an example Luxembourg were bottom of the 4th seeds but got more points than any other Pot 4 team during the qualification campaign that were in a 5 team group : - more than Bosnia - who failed to beat 5th seed Kazakhstan away, more than the aforementioned Bulgaria who lost 3-1 in Lithuania (5th Seeds) , more than Belarus who lost their last 7 games in a row - including a defeat to 5th seeded Estonia, More than Georgia who also lost to a 5th seed (Kosovo). The Luxemburg result was a disaster - but you could easily make a case that if we were playing any other of the 4th seeds they may not have beaten us.

It doesn't allow for our awful goalscoring record (which you can in part place on having no forwards of course)

It doesn't allow for the decline in our world ranking (from 37th to 45th per Eloratings, having at least picked up from a low of 58th after the Azerbaijan draw)

Both our goal scoring record and Elo ratings have considerably improved in the past 10/11 games. We are surely on an upward trajectory here.

It doesn't allow for Portugal resting players at home against us because they wanted to focus on the Serbia game three days later.

It doesn't allow for the composition of that Portuguese team made up of representatives of each of Europe's top leagues - Eng / Spa / Ita & Ger - they had Pepe / Dalot / Fernades and Ronaldo starting. ( To name but 4)

It emphasizes the ignored current fixture congestion which disproportionally effects smaller nations with the smaller number of top players and us as an example trying to compete with a so called second string Portuguese team with close on 500 caps and however many champions league medals. It does not allow for the fact that SK has had to repeatedly prepare for 3 games in 6 days during his tenure - something no other Irish manager has had to deal with except for the odd example.

passinginterest at the start said "I think Kenny still deserves credit for what he's trying to do and the players he's bringing through. But, I've said before, I'm not sure he's going to survive long enough to be the manager who benefits from it" and I think the first part is definitely reasonable and the second part, while obviously conjecture, is probably fair too.

I think he will reap the benefit if we make Germany 2024 - he will have had 2 campaigns then and I don't think his detractors or his defenders can expect anything more.

But saying we've met our seeding each time so things are grand glosses over quite a lot.

Never said anything of the sort and I didn't glosss over anything which was the original reason for the post. - there are positive and negatives during his tenure - tonight is vital for him and then he has another chance at the "real" business of qualification with the likelihood of a playoff at the end. If he can't steer us into the top 24 nations from 54 at that stage then it should be onto the next in line.

[Real ale Madrid]

But tonight is his 21st competitive game in charge - that cannot possibly be "phase 1". No Ireland manager has ever had a 21-game "Phase 1"

I meant Phase 1 of this Q campaign - Phase one being the NL and Phase 2 actual qualification

[pineapple stu]

id argue the mick mc carthy term 1 got quite a lengthy period of grace given the large re-build that was required.
culminated in wc qualification

Possibly so - but by his 21st competitive game in charge, he'd at least brought us to two play-offs (his 21st game was the 1-1 draw against Turkey). He was unbeaten at home, had only one bad defeat (against Macedonia) and had knocked out Croatia months after they'd reached a World Cup semi.

That's streets ahead of what Kenny has achieved. Granted Mick had a stronger squad to start with and stronger players coming through (Roy Keane, Irwin, Houghton, and newcomers like Keane, Duff)