I'd give us a 5% chance of qualifying directly. I'd give us a 70-30 chance of coming ahead of Greece and a 35-65 chance of taking 6 points off them.
We're probably about 50/50 to reach the playoffs and there's probably a 50-50 shot that there'll be one really strong team in our playoff - generally there's one good side who fails to deliver amongst the top 10 (if for example, Ukraine finished ahead of either Italy or England). So I'd give us maybe a 15% shot of actually getting through the playoffs if we get there (25% shot, less the chance we play against a really good side).
Which basically gives us a 5% shot of getting in via the groups and a 7.5% shot of getting in via the playoffs, so a 1 in 8 shot in total
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