QuoteAnd why is that exactly?Originally Posted by pineapple stu
No - FIFA now use a modified version of Elo. But they didn't go the full hog to Elo itself, so there's still scope for Elo to be more accurate.
And why is that exactly?
Why is what exactly?
Edit - if you mean why was the old rankings system flawed (as opposed to why did FIFA not just fully roll out Elo), then wiki has a good explanation, including how teams gamed the system by realising you could lose points for winning friendlies, which is obviously daft and isn't possible under Elo.
Last edited by pineapple stu; 15/10/2022 at 12:35 PM.
i think he means why is ELO more accurate than FIFA's current system
Elo (not ELO - it's a person's name) has more nuance to it - it factors in whether a team is home and away, whether a team won 1-0 or 4-0 - that sort of thing. FIFA gives a bonus for winning in a penalty shoot-out which doesn't really make sense (because the expected score for the game between the two teams is then 1.25)
The new FIFA rankings make a lot more sense and correlate much closer to Elo, although still not fully. FIFA weights the Nations League lower compared to UEFA qualifiers than Elo does (60% v 75% I think), and that's reflected in the current rankings where England and France (who had bad Nations League) are lower in Elo than in FIFA, while Holland and Spain (who had good tournaments) are higher. There's a debate to be had as to which one is correct and it's not necessarily Elo, but I feel 60% is too low.
Code:# Elo FIFA 1 Brazil Brazil 2 Argentina Belgium 3 Spain Argentina 4 Holland France 5 Belgium England 6 France Italy 7 Portugal Spain 8 Italy Holland 9 Denmark Portugal 10 Germany Denmark
No it's a band. Electric light orchestra
I'm a bloke,I'm an ocker
And I really love your knockers,I'm a labourer by day,
I **** up all me pay,Watching footy on TV,
Just feed me more VB,Just pour my beer,And get my smokes, And go away
It doesn't matter how you measure it. We're ****e, Greece are not noticably worse, and so anyone assuming we have a divine right to finish ahead of Greece is talking out of an oriface not usually associated with speech.
Gus Poyet actually looked a promising manager when he came on the scene first. ~ ~ Interesting to see how he goes with Greece ~ ~ They can be an up and down team at the best of times.
What about the ones saying not only do we have to finish above the Greeks but one of Holland & France too, what are they talking out of John83 ?
Stephen Kenny Saviour, Leader, Winner, An Autobiography - In All Good Bookstores Now
I'm not sure there's any particular word or phrase to describe that level of madness.
https://kesslereffect.bandcamp.com/album/kepler - New music. It's not that bad.
Same oriface, higher flow rate.
Probably need to apply some backpressure to that flowable. Certainly others need to apply some forward pressure in the opposite direction.
I'm a bloke,I'm an ocker
And I really love your knockers,I'm a labourer by day,
I **** up all me pay,Watching footy on TV,
Just feed me more VB,Just pour my beer,And get my smokes, And go away
Oh, I don't think they will - I don't think we're at the level where that's a serious possibility but if we were making good progress I think it would actually be attainable. That's why I think that it should be a benchmark for judging Kenny's performance. Now I could be overly pessimistic - maybe things start to really click over the next few months - a couple of players emerge in key areas and make their mark in the friendlies, putting us in a stronger position going into the qualifiers. But we shouldn't be talking about "improved performances" against Greece like we did against Scotland.
Now if we fall short of this mark, I would still be OK with Kenny staying on if he manages to get us in via the playoffs and we perform well in the Finals
But still - a "benchmark for judging Kenny's performance" or a sign that "we were making good progress" would be two feats which combined we've managed once in the last 20 years?
And if we don't manage this, you'd be ok with Kenny staying on if we qualify through the playoffs and do well in the finals?
Are we going to do this with 45-goal Aaron Connolly up front?
Last edited by pineapple stu; 19/10/2022 at 8:06 AM.
Why are we throwing in the towel? This isn't us. I know the group is awful a d o know the players arnt world class but jesus we need to have more belief or i can guarantee u we won't qualify.
The only times we've ever qualified the draws been tough. Anytime we get a relatively easy one we crash and burn
Who's throwing in the towel?
Don't mix up checking absurd optimism with throwing in the towel.
This isn't some magic fairy world where belief alone will get you through the group.
Scotland are a bit better than Greece, though not all that much. Scotland finished the Nations League 6 points clear of us.
Most of the people on this forum have given up on automatic qualification
Its not magic if u don't believe in yourself your done before a ball is kicked
Look at the rugby v new zealand we lost games before the whistle went until Joe schmitt gave us the belief to beat them. Now we routinely beat them!
Fortunately I'm not kicking the ball in this case, so what I believe is utterly irrelevant.
And Ireland are routinely ranked top five in rugby - it says a lot about how little that game is played that we couldn't beat the world number one for decades. And in real competition (World Cup), we still can't beat them or get past the quarter-finals despite all the belief the players may have.
So pointing out that the suggestion that progress means "we should beat Greece home and away and take four points off France/Holland or if we fail to do that then we should qualify through the play-offs and perform well at the finals" is utter gibberish isn't throwing in the towel.
There's a shade in between black and white here.
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