QuoteRegba looks a better player than Dinny tonight. Interesting to see how he progresses next year.
I'm at the game right now and had a perfect view of that goal.
One of the best I've seen at the cross I must say.
Regba looks a better player than Dinny tonight. Interesting to see how he progresses next year.
Bohs just didn't do enough. Admirably attempted a neat short passing game but several of them were overhit. Shame for them they couldn't capitalize on rocking Cork with that Goal of the Season. Corcoran was poor. Very edgy stuff from Cork at times but there they are, in a 4th Cup Final in a Row.
Bohs will be disappointed that they didn't manage to carve out a few real chances after Cork sat so deep for the last 20 minutes.
I thought Cork fully deserved the win. Bohs were simply unable to capitalise on Corks nervousness in the last quarter .
Bohs will be kicking themselves, should have finished the job at home and never showed up tonight. Hard to feel enthusiastic about another final v Cork, the last 3 have been awful spectacles, this will be no different. I'm sure I'll feel different closer to the game. It's bad news for neutrals anyway
Bohs missed the boat last Sunday. We rode our luck a bit to get the draw. Dundalk big favourites for the final I think.
Chuffed with the result tonight but think I'll be missing first cup final in years, bizarre sequence of draws to keep cork and dundalk separate this long
Not bizarre at all. The odds of us avoiding each other for the past four years combined in 2/1. Hardly outrageous.Originally Posted by sbgawa
Absolutely delighted! What a night, what a result. Bring on the Cup Final!
The last two finals were decent spectacles I thought. 2015 was dreadful alright.
That can't be right. The odds of you avoiding each other in the semi final draw this year alone was even money. ...is there a mathematician in the house ??
Yeah, you're right. I got the number mixed around.
The odds of us avoiding each other this year, we're a little over 1/2. So avoiding each other wasn't unusual.
But over the 4 years that would be 1/2 x1/2 X 1/2 x1/2. (I added them instead of multiplying).
That's a 6.25% chance of avoiding each other 4 years in a row in the semi draw, but then you h as he to include avoiding each other in all t ghe other rounds......this is a spreadsheet job tommorow as an alternative to working....I'll report back
We only had a 33% chance of drawing Dundalk in the semi final. Three possible opponents. A one in 7 chance for quarter final and so on. It's surprisingly not as likely as you'd expect
And here's the thing. If the rest of ye are sick of a City-Dundalk final then there is a very simple solution. Beat one of us.
Cork really overpowered Bohs in the first half. Home side much the better team for me tonight. Good to see a decent crowd at a LoI match, combined with that goal it gives a good image of our game.
Am I wrong to think that the number of times you multiply 1/2 is irrelevant, as you still end up with the equivalent of 1/2 anyway (just reflected in larger numbers) ?
Yes. That's the equivalent of saying one Cork v Dundalk final is as likely as four Cork v Dundalk finals, which doesn't make sense.
If the odds of a coin coming up heads are 1/2, then the odds of four heads is 1/2×1/2×1/2×1/2 = 1/16
In fact, feck it - let's do some maths.
The odds of Cork and Dundalk avoiding each other in any given round is (n-2)/(n-1), where n is the number of teams in the hat. So this means that for the semi-final (4 teams), the odds are 2/3 of them avoiding each other, because there are 3 teams they could draw (everyone other than themselves), and 2 non-Dundalk/Cork teams they could draw.
For them to avoid each other in four successive semi-finals, the odds are multiplied - 2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 = 16/81
For them to avoid each other in four successive tournaments, the odds are (30/31 x 14/15 x 6/7 x 2/3) ^ 4 - or a 7.1% chance.
This assumes that they win all their matches, which as El-P says would be the easiest way to stop all this. If you start factoring in the odds of them actually losing a game, the 7.1% chance would drop a lot. So if you assume both sides must be in the first round draw, and then there's a 90% chance of each getting through to each subsequent round, I think the odds drop to 2.0%
Actually, this is wrong; it's the odds of them reaching four finals given a 10% chance either will get knocked out in the first round, but thereafter will beat everyone.
Given a 90% chance of both making it through each round - ie the odds are 1/20 they'll win any given game - then I think the odds drop to ((30/31)×(14×15×0.9)×(6/7×0.9×0.9)×(2/3×0.9×0.9×0.9))^4, which is a 0.56% chance of four successive finals appearances.
If you take an 20% chance of either side getting knocked out in any given round, then you getting to a 0.03% chance - Leicester-winning-the-league odds. The majority of which is down to Cork/Dundalk not losing a game as opposed to being kept apart in the draw.
Others may be able to refine that further.
I wonder if it's a record of some sort?
Edit - not a record, but only five instances of five or more successive repeated cup finals - http://rsssf.com/miscellaneous/cuprec.html#cfp
Last edited by pineapple stu; 09/10/2018 at 7:05 AM.
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