I still think it's going to be Hollande. Sarkozy is very unpopular, almost from the get-go, really. He's made a haimes of too many things - youth disaffection (mainly second generation North Americans), allowing a strong Germany under Merkel, the economy, the Gadaffi link, and never had the harness of 'cohabitation' to blame (hard to believe it's a decade since the Chirac-Jospin powershare.)... He's lucky that there are no real contenders on the right. Marine le Pen has moved the FN a little towards the centre (now a smidgin to the left of Hitler!!) but the FN has declined over the last few elections, and she had difficulty securing a nomination. Sarko'll survive till the second round. The only thing that could put a spanner in the works is Mélenchon; he could split the left vote, the same way it fragmented in Chirac's second run, allowing Bayrou to sneak into the second round - if he can regain some of the UDF vote he lost after he split to set up MoDem, and if he can pull other right of centre votes from Sarkozy. They're big ifs, though, and I don't see Mélenchon moving ahead of Hollande, so in the second round (just two go through) I'd estimate around 55:45 Hollande-Sarkozy.
Edit
RTE has this to say today:
'Supporters of French hardline leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon will be urged to vote for Socialist Francois Hollande in a presidential election run-off against incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, a spokeswoman said today.'
http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0406/lef...t-sarkozy.html
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