Independents Day

[culloty82]

Many pundits are expecting 15-20 independents to be elected, with candidates ranging from the traditional FF gene-pool independents, community activists (Ming, Catherine Murphy, Mick Wallace), political reformers (Shane Ross, Paul Sommerville) and no-hopers who're having a go anyway (Dylan Haskins). So, who's likely to get over the line, and what influence can they have in a Dáil likely to be two-thirds compromised of government parties?

[Spudulika]

How many are pure independents or from smaller parties (Greens etc.) Joe Higgins (could be in this bunch), I hope he gets in to deny one of this mob another spell of getting money for nothing - Varadkar/Burton/Lenihan.

Healy Rae? Lowry? I can't see Shane Ross getting in, there is a bit of an overestimation of his appeal, he'd probably do as well as Kevin Myers would.

10-15 seems excessive, maybe 6, the usual suspects. Polls will be suspect in Ireland, we have an aversion to doing what's right :-)

[BonnieShels]

But is it a good thing to have so many independents? I don't think so.

[Macy]

So, who's likely to get over the line, and what influence can they have in a Dáil likely to be two-thirds compromised of government parties?

I think the media are talking up the independents, as it's "their" type of independents that are running i.e. Ross, Sommerville etc are all from their social circle. The media talking them up is just a form of cronyism.

As to their influence - if FG get close to an overall majority they could come into play. Ross and Sommerville wouldn't find it hard to support an FG Government, if they were given some role. Ross previously ran for the blueshirts for all his political reform guff FFS. If they don't, then it'll follow the cycle of many independents this election, followed by a handful the next election.

Are Wallace and Murphy running under the ULA banner? They'd certainly fit in with that grouping if elected - a very good day for Labour and SF, and ULA aligned, possibly they could come into play.

[Spudulika]

Bonnie, I don't know, I think a dose of Independents will keep things interesting, or at least if they're progressive, so if Healy Rae and Lowry get in, then that's a no.

Macy, don't use the Blueshirt reference, that's just like that gombeenette on the Frontline who said she was a FF voter, before, but would never vote for the Blueshirts, but well, just maybe, well, if FG are going to win she'd vote FF again. It's that thinking which has dragged the country to where it is. Let FF be the past and all other parties be part of the future. FF are doing a magnificent job with their media cronies of running down FG and Labour (they have SF destroyed again), while you're right about the cronyism, they'll give lots of airtime to their friends as that way they'll have inside allies with FF gone.

I just saw that Richard Boyd Barrett is a favourite to be elected. I don't have any great dislike for the man, I'm sure he's well meaning, I just wonder if he won't turn out to be another Gogarty?

[Eminence Grise]

For FG to use independents’ support to form a minority government, they would need at least 78 seats. Anything more than five independents creates instability as individuals strategically dither at votes until they get concessions, and costs too much economically and politically. Would FG want to create five or more local heroes in constituencies when its own TDs would be disadvantaged?

Independents are a disaster, and a large number is as welcome (and constructive) as a plague of locusts. We don't need 15 Healy-Rae’s with their fiefdoms; 15 Smeagol’s crooning “my precious” over their Dáil seats; or 15 rent-a-soundbite Shane Rosses. With a few exceptions, independents contribute nothing to national politics, but perpetuate the Medici-like clientelism and brokerage that cripples our political system.

We’re facing a glut of independents, because voters saw a handful holding the government to ransom. But voters don’t rationalise that the more independents there are, the less power they have. After Blaney, Foxe, Healy-Rae, supported the FF-PD government (‘97-‘02), the electorate returned around 14 independents, before rejecting most of them in 2007. We’re back on cycle’s up swing, but FG and Labour with around 100 seats will coalesce “going forward in the national interest” so most independents are going to be one-term nonentities.