AIL 'On Long Finger'

[pete]

I think Pineapple's basic point is that it would be harder for a club to qualify for Europe in the proposed league. I think that is correct, whether it's a good thing or a bad thing is more a matter of opinion.

True. In the current LOI chances of qualifying from the league are about 2 or 3 from 6 for those clubs with that aspiration. In an AIL would be 2 or 3 from maybe 8. The majority of clubs have little or no chance of Europe now so would be no change for them - chances of getting in via the Cup won't likely change.

Maybe the Cup place could be kept in both sides of the border for interim 5 years or similar?

[dcfcsteve]

I think Pineapple's basic point is that it would be harder for a club to qualify for Europe in the proposed league. I think that is correct, whether it's a good thing or a bad thing is more a matter of opinion.

I've said myself all along that the level of competition for Euro slots would probably increase under an AIL. But that is a very different arguement from 'we're losing 4 Euro spaces' - which no single club is.

Also - the increaseed competition arguement is not a criticism exclusive to an AIL, yet it is only ever trotted out as an excuse against that type of change. For example - most IL fans would probably love to have Derry City back in their league, yet wouldn't raise any issue about such a move then increasing competition for Euro spaces. Yet as soon as you mention an AIL, Euro competition then become a big issue (even though it's all thoroughly academic anyway, given how rubbish they usually are in Europe). Likewise in the EL - when we moved from a 10 team to a 12 team top division, I don't recall anyone complaining that it wa bd because it would make it more competitive to get into Europe ?

The Euro arguement is therefore a red herring that is not particular to an AIL - yet is only ever used as a stick to beat that particular proposal. Hence why it should be broadly discounted.

[DmanDmythDledge]

Thus lessening the chance of a Euro place for all four.

True, but as GavinZac or Pete pointed out clubs in that situation will take that chance because they know that they would improve and the teams around them would improve.

[Bald Student]

I've said myself all along that the level of competition for Euro slots would probably increase under an AIL. But that is a very different arguement from 'we're losing 4 Euro spaces' - which no single club is.

Also - the increaseed competition arguement is not a criticism exclusive to an AIL, yet it is only ever trotted out as an excuse against that type of change. For example - most IL fans would probably love to have Derry City back in their league, yet wouldn't raise any issue about such a move then increasing competition for Euro spaces. Yet as soon as you mention an AIL, Euro competition then become a big issue (even though it's all thoroughly academic anyway, given how rubbish they usually are in Europe). Likewise in the EL - when we moved from a 10 team to a 12 team top division, I don't recall anyone complaining that it wa bd because it would make it more competitive to get into Europe ?

The Euro arguement is therefore a red herring that is not particular to an AIL - yet is only ever used as a stick to beat that particular proposal. Hence why it should be broadly discounted.

I think the main reason it's a big issue (on this internet site) is because there are people trying to pretend it doesn't exist at all. Fewer clubs getting to play in Europe is a negative of this proposal which can be balanced against the positives, one of which is having a higher standard of club representing us in Europe.

[DmanDmythDledge]

I think Pineapple's basic point is that it would be harder for a club to qualify for Europe in the proposed league. I think that is correct, whether it's a good thing or a bad thing is more a matter of opinion.

It's not though (well at least he hasn't said that). He's said that 8-4=4 and some pointless probability and then determined that less European places is automatically a bad thing, which is a simplistic way of looking at it.

[Student Mullet]

It's not though (well at least he hasn't said that). He's said that 8-4=4 and some pointless probability and then determined that less European places is automatically a bad thing, which is a simplistic way of looking at it.

I think he said it in his own bean counting kind of way.

[pineapple stu]

and then determined that less European places is automatically a bad thing, which is a simplistic way of looking at it.

Where did I determine that?

Pineapple - your mathematical analysis of probability overlayed onto football is valid.

Anyone who knows anything about football will tell you that probability - along the lines you're suggesting - is only very loosely relevant to football. It's not chess ffs.

Firstly - success in football is influenced by far too many variables that a ridiculously simple 'summary' (it doesn't even qualify as a model) such as yours doesn't even begin to address. Managerial changes, player changes, injuries to key players, Boardroom strife, weather, referreeing decisions in key games, home vs away draws in cup games etc etc etc - all these will have a greater influence upon a team's likelihood of Euro qualification in any particular season than some primary schoool analysis of how often they've made it to Europe over the past 13 years.

And why do you think the teams who got into Europe in the past 13 years got into Europe? All those factors are taken into account, and no amount of tabloid-esque hysteria on your part can alter that fact.

Of course it will! Improving the average standard of UEFA qualifying teams, and by extension the standard of premier teams in general will, one hopes, knock at least one hole in the arguments against Joe Punter giving the ELoI a fair chance.

Far too simplistic, I'm afraid. Football on this island has bigger problems than can be solved by making sure Dungannon or Longford can't get into Europe again.

[dcfcsteve]

And why do you think the teams who got into Europe in the past 13 years got into Europe? All those factors are taken into account, and no amount of tabloid-esque hysteria on your part can alter that fact.

Those teams got into Europe because of how they did in any particular season in-isolation - not because of how they did re Euro slots over the previous 13 years. Seasons start and end - they don't compound.

Whilst your analysis would be much more relevant for a turgid league like the SPL, where the Top 2 teams differ from the Old Firm maybe only once a decade, you have to understand that you can't overlay retrospective probability analysis onto a fluid league like the Eircom league and then expect the results to say very much.

Hence, for example, why Longford can come from nowhere to defy your probability analysis and qualify for Europe in 2004, and then do the reverse by defying their greatly improving 'probability' of Euro qualification by not qualifying again since 2005, and not even having the same opportunities of qualification ongoing due to being relegated.

That's why a bus can be driven through the holes in your analysis. And your rather weak response here suggests you know it.

[Mr A]

Of course it will! Improving the average standard of UEFA qualifying teams, and by extension the standard of premier teams in general will, one hopes, knock at least one hole in the arguments against Joe Punter giving the ELoI a fair chance.

Joe Punter always has another argument though!

[pineapple stu]

Those teams got into Europe because of how they did in any particular season in-isolation - not because of how they did re Euro slots over the previous 13 years. Seasons start and end - they don't compound.

Whilst your analysis would be much more relevant for a turgid league like the SPL, where the Top 2 teams differ from the Old Firm maybe only once a decade, you have to understand that you can't overlay retrospective probability analysis onto a fluid league like the Eircom league and then expect the results to say very much.

Yawn.

You talk a lot steve, but your posts are sadly lacking in any sort of back up, mathematical or otherwise. You demonstrate a remarkable lack of understanding of the concept of probability (for example, it's perfectly possible for Longford to have a probability of qualifying for Europe of 0.23, and yet not qualify at all for the next 15 years), yet still you feel qualified to argue on it.

You then dismiss the workings as they are only really relevant to a "turgid league like the SPL, where the Top 2 teams differ from the Old Firm maybe only once a decade" which sounds curiously like the IL, a fact you ignore even though I show that Glentoran and Linfield's chances of getting into Europe must fall in an AIL, which is the very point you're trying to counter.

As a (hopefully) concluding comment in this, I am (and always have been) for an AIL, but you can't get away from the fact that European places will be lost (though I don't think it's that big a deal); an AIL with Limerick or Galway in their present forms would be a farce (though in fairness, the Limerick fans have pointed that out, and even the Galway fans must be feeling faintly embarrassed at their continuing link) and my opinions on Jim Roddy ("Let's merge with the FAI!!" "No, let's split from the FAI!!") are well known.

[seanfhear]

This subject always attracts plenty of debate on this site which must be a positive sign.The timing of the introduction of the ail would be very important.I wonder if the present economic climate will be a hindrance.It would be a pity if this and the dinosaurs held back what could be an exciting developement for irish football

[dcfcsteve]

Yawn.

You talk a lot steve, but your posts are sadly lacking in any sort of back up, mathematical or otherwise. You demonstrate a remarkable lack of understanding of the concept of probability (for example, it's perfectly possible for Longford to have a probability of qualifying for Europe of 0.23, and yet not qualify at all for the next 15 years), yet still you feel qualified to argue on it.

Just like Omagh Town's chances of getting into Europe - thoroughly interesting from an acamedical maths point of view ; thoroughly irrelevant from a reality point of view. I understand that this event has a mathematical probability of happening from your analysis. It's just laughable, as it doesn't reflect the actual reality/probability caused by their situation, and you're willing to die on the sword to defend this abstract and pointless analysis

You then dismiss the workings as they are only really relevant to a "turgid league like the SPL, where the Top 2 teams differ from the Old Firm maybe only once a decade" which sounds curiously like the IL, a fact you ignore even though I show that Glentoran and Linfield's chances of getting into Europe must fall in an AIL, which is the very point you're trying to counter.

So the Top 2 in the IL only differs from Belfast's Big Two maybe once a decade ? You may know a lot about maths text books Stu - but sadly nowhere near as much about football.

The Irish League is a relativelty turgid league - but it's not at the laughably uncompetitive standard of Scottish football quite yet. Only once in the last decade has the Top 2 in Scotland not featured the Old Firm together. Five times in the last decade the Top two in Norn Iron hasn't featured the Belfast Big Two. Way less fluid than the EL - granted. But I never claimed it wasn't (the EL is actually one of the most fluid leagues in Europe).

I'm sure you've got a probability table somewhere that swares blind that Omagh Town are in with a shout of winning next season's Irish league title. Because yet again - probability analysis does not always reflect hard cold reality.

As a (hopefully) concluding comment in this, I am (and always have been) for an AIL, but you can't get away from the fact that European places will be lost (though I don't think it's that big a deal);

This is why I can't take you seriously. You present a flawed analysis to show that club's chances of qualifying for Europe under an AIL will go down - which few people dispute, due to increased competition or those spaces - and you then leap from that to a laim that places will be lost. Just like your arguement - only on paper they will. The number of avalable places for any individual club hasn't changed- the level of numerical and actual competition to qualify for them is what has changed.

I look forward to a similarly pointless abstract mathematical analysis on every other numerical change proposed in the EL in-future.

[pineapple stu]

And still the fundamentals of probability theory escape you.

Furthermore, I proved that for the top six clubs (Glentoran, Shels, Cork, Linfield, Bohs and Portadown), European qualification must necessarily reduce in an AIL even if you assume no other club ever qualifies for Europe again. That rules out any "point" on your behalf regarding the quirk of Omagh being in there; the maths is so strong, it's already taken account of it.

[GavinZac]

And still the fundamentals of probability theory escape you.

Furthermore, I proved that for the top six clubs (Glentoran, Shels, Cork, Linfield, Bohs and Portadown), European qualification must necessarily reduce in an AIL even if you assume no other club ever qualifies for Europe again. That rules out any "point" on your behalf regarding the quirk of Omagh being in there; the maths is so strong, it's already taken account of it.

Would you give it a rest? Both of you? We know it'll be harder to qualify, because of increased competition not less places. That is an intended effect. Now can we drop the bloody stats lecture? I'm doing my best to erase that tripe from my memory as it is.

[pineapple stu]

We know it'll be harder to qualify, because of increased competition not less places.

Wrong.

But let's try let it lie.

[EalingGreen]

Technically, DCFC Steve is correct that any individual club is still competing for four European places, as before. But such an analysis is too narrow, since it ignores the increased level of competition a new league might bring.

To take the present situation. any of the top EL clubs is basically looking to secure one of 4 European places out of perhaps 6 or 7 other clubs which have a realistic chance of qualifying for Europe.

Therefore, if an AIL saw two or three "no hopers" at the bottom of the EL replaced by two or three contenders from the IL (i.e. Linfield, Glens, maybe Cliftonville), then each individual EL's chances of securing one of 4 European places MUST be reduced accordingly.

Which is only what Pineapple Stu's table is demonstrating in mathematical terms.

P.S. Any EL fan who doesn't see his European Qualification chances will be reduced in a new AIL should think of it this way. If, say, 8 EL clubs combined in a new League with Man Utd, Chelsea, Arse and L'pool, then obviously their chances (odds) would be reduced (to zero!). Obviously this is an extreme example, but the same principle applies in combining with, say, LFC, Glens, C'ville and Distillery - it's only the odds which differ.

[Bald Student]

I think the mistake being made by a lot of people in this discussion is in using mathematics, examples and various other arguments to explain something that we all understand already.

This discussion isn't based on any actual disagreement or misunderstanding.

[EalingGreen]

This discussion isn't based on any actual disagreement or misunderstanding.

Unless I misunderstand you, I have to disagree...