AIL 'On Long Finger'

[dcfcsteve]

I've proven this for you before. As I recall, you came out with more and more ridiculous maths to "prove" yourself right. It was like explaining maths to a retarded chimpanzee at the time, so I don't see what's to be gained from explaining it again. If you want to give it another go, look back at the last time we had this discussion. Fortunately, everyone else can see you're talking rubbish.

Mods : Can the above be added to the right hand side tab bar as the 'waving the white flag' smilie ?

Thanks.

[Student Mullet]

playing home games at a rugby training pitch

The Bowl is the home of UCD RFC, one of the better rugby clubs in this country. It's not just a training pitch and like other clubs and our national teams it is serving as a dual rugby/soccer ground.

The Leinster & international rugby teams do most of their training on the new astro pitch built beside the bowl. Apart from practice matches that need the full sized pitch they only use the bowl for the changing room with the ice baths and other medical facilities. So, in a sense, you're both right.

During the six nations both pitches were used. I remember going down to check which players swapped from Ireland to Leinster training after lunch. You can get the Ireland team a day early by watching this.

[Student Mullet]

Mods : Can the above be added to the right hand side tab bar as the 'waving the white flag' smilie ?

Thanks.

Mods: Can this be added to the right hand side tab bar as the 'Comical Ali declaring victory' smiley?


P.S. I suspect that these comments will be gone when I get up in the afternoon.

[dcfcsteve]

Mods: Can this be added to the right hand side tab bar as the 'Comical Ali declaring victory' smiley?

I know you tend to ask Stu to sit on your lap on UCD supporter trips - even when there's plenty of empty seats on the minibus - but you've excelled yourself with your special 'brotherly love' here SM.

[QUOTE=Student Mullet;972368P.S. I suspect that these comments will be gone when I get up in the afternoon.[/QUOTE]

I suspect most EL fans go to bed with the same hope regarding your club having disappeared by the morning.....

[jebus]

So now it's about attendances, not the magical lot Euro slots that no single team was ever able to access anyway...?

Do you want a hand with shifting those goalposts - they look heavy...?

It's always been about attendences Count Von Count, you just don't seem capable of basic English as well as Maths, the AIL is a pitch aimed at both supporters and clubs and the loss of European places is a minus in both aspects, not that hard to understand to be honest and I won't be explaining it again. Read my post again, slap yourself in the face a bit and come back to me if you have anything worthwhile to add

[dcfcsteve]

It's always been about attendences Count Von Count, you just don't seem capable of basic English as well as Maths, the AIL is a pitch aimed at both supporters and clubs and the loss of European places is a minus in both aspects, not that hard to understand to be honest and I won't be explaining it again. Read my post again, slap yourself in the face a bit and come back to me if you have anything worthwhile to add

An on-paper change in Euro spaces is very different from a no change in Euro opportunities. You can't lose somethign yuo were never entiteld to anyway !

If your club can access one of four Euro slots under the EL - and again, still one of four under an AIL - please explain to me what exactly they have lost ??

Again - you can't lose something you were never entitled to in the first place.

[Schumi]

Apologies for getting to this thread late but...

*bulls notion. If you can't get that right... go on, point out where I'm wrong.

bull's notion.

[jebus]

An on-paper change in Euro spaces is very different from a no change in Euro opportunities. You can't lose somethign yuo were never entiteld to anyway !

If your club can access one of four Euro slots under the EL - and again, still one of four under an AIL - please explain to me what exactly they have lost ??

Again - you can't lose something you were never entitled to in the first place.

You didn't go back and re-read my point did you?

[pineapple stu]

Let's have one last go at explaining this to you. It really is quite simple, and your view really is quite wrong. Watch also how I explain this without resorting to underline, bold or s to make my point.

Since 1996/97, both the LoI and the IL have had four teams in Europe each. That's 13 seasons, including this one. We can use the number of times each team has qualified for Europe in the past 13 years as a decent estimate of the probability of them getting into Europe in the coming years. That gives us -

Club	        Times	% prob
Glentoran	12	0.92
Shels	        11	0.85
Cork	        10	0.77
Linfield	10	0.77
Bohs	         8	0.62
Portadown	 7	0.54
St Pat's	 6	0.46
Cliftonville	 5	0.38
Derry	         4	0.31
Coleraine	 4	0.31
Rovers	         3	0.23
Longford	 3	0.23
Drogheda	 3	0.23
Glenavon	 3	0.23
Crusaders	 2	0.15
Omagh	         2	0.15
Lisburn Dist	 2	0.15
Dungannon	 2	0.15
Sligo	         1	0.08
Bray	         1	0.08
UCD	         1	0.08
Dundalk	         1	0.08
Ards	         1	0.08
Ballymena	 1	0.08
Newry	         1	0.08

This takes into account fluctuations such as you mentioned - Limerick coming from nowhere to get into Europe or Shels imploding.

The sum total of all the probabilities is 8, because there's eight Euro slots. In any given year over time, there is, for example, a 92% chance that Glentoran will be in Europe, and an 8% chance Dundalk will be in.

Now imagine we have an AIL where there's four spots going. The sum probability of the first six teams (Glentoran through Portadown) getting into Europe in any one year is 4.5. This can't be, because we only have four spots. Therefore, in order to adjust to four spots, teams will have to have their probabilities of getting into Europe reduced so that the overall sum equals four.

This, of course, is the point of the whole argument, and why your attempts to get around maths by using English are nonsense. In order for the maths to work, Glentoran's probability would reduce from 0.92 to something like 0.5 (say). That means that, instead of qualifying for Europe 92% of the time, they'd be qualifying 50% of the time.

QED.

If you want to take issue with that, I'd advise letting some international maths body know you're changing probability theory.

If you want a more straightforward way of thinking of it, imagine (as I've told you before) you're in a group of 12, and you're told that in eight months' time, four of you will be shot. Now imagine a second group, with 16 people in it who will also have four of them shot in eight months' time. You're told that, if you want, you can merge together and, of the new group, only four of you will be shot. What is your choice?

[Mr A]

The clubs that do not get picked for the new league will lose all access to European football if these proposals go through. And by the looks of it if your face doesn't fit there won't be a damn thing those clubs can do about it.

[osarusan]

We'd all better bear in mind the title of this thread - the IFA have said they are not interested in an AIL at the moment, and I can't see it going ahead without their agreement.

We're arguing about the particulars of something which is unlikely to happen at all, especially in its current format.

[GavinZac]

If you want a more straightforward way of thinking of it, imagine (as I've told you before) you're in a group of 12, and you're told that in eight months' time, four of you will be shot. Now imagine a second group, with 16 people in it who will also have four of them shot in eight months' time. You're told that, if you want, you can merge together and, of the new group, only four of you will be shot. What is your choice?

I'd imagine the new league will not have 28 teams in it and if teams are worried about better clubs moving into the league "ahead" of them, then thats fine, they can wallow in mediocrity as they do now.

[jebus]

I'd imagine the new league will not have 28 teams in it and if teams are worried about better clubs moving into the league "ahead" of them, then thats fine, they can wallow in mediocrity as they do now.

And Cork, Derry, etc. can then enjoy their 6 man league, playing each team 6 times a season is bound to put bums on seats after all

[osarusan]

And Cork, Derry, etc. can then enjoy their 6 man league, playing each team 6 times a season is bound to put bums on seats after all

But Jebus, you've forgotten the most reassuring fact, which is that as Cork fans watch a game against Bohs, a game of the same quality as now, watched by the same number of fans, they can take comfort in the fact that in another stadium, Linfield are playing a different team, and that makes everything all better.

[GavinZac]

But Jebus, you've forgotten the most reassuring fact, which is that as Cork fans watch a game against Bohs, a game of the same quality as now, watched by the same number of fans, they can take comfort in the fact that in another stadium, Linfield are playing a different team, and that makes everything all better.

But at least we won't be in the same league as UCD, which will help me sleep better at night.

[DmanDmythDledge]

If you want; most people with an interest in general football have found it an interesting column. Fortunately, I don't need to consider your opinion because you've long since shown yourself a completel twit. If you want to highlight a particular problem with it, fire away.

Most people? Are these the "couple of people in the Montrose" you've mentioned before? Any time it has been mentioned by any opposition fans on the web it has been ridiculed. It has no place in an official match programme for the Eircom League.

...if Sudoku is a "pathetic page filler", then you've probably got half the western world not thinking you're an idiot.

It's a pathetic page filler if it's in an eL programme.

Solid argument there. I've seen plenty worse. They just have colours and pictures for the less intelligent among us to gape over in amazement and wonder.

No, they actually have stuff to read that's relevant rather than read about food/films or some crap about random leagues.

On your other tripe, we have a CPO

You said we "didn't bother" with one. In fact, we are very much bothering with one, to the extent that we have appointed an interim CPO immediately after our old one left (shock horror as person moves job) and will are looking for a new full time CPO.

In this thread you say we haven't filled the CPO position and say that we would probably lose our fund from the FAI. So which one is it? Not surprising to see you change your tune on topics to suit your argument.

No, your inability to do maths has led you to not accept you're wrong. Big difference. I've used probability theory, common sense and shooting people to show you you're wrong, but if you want to continue believing you're right, there's nothing we can do. Just like people can believe the earth is flat or the sun goes around the earth, and hold onto that belief while denying all evidence to the contrary.

Let's have one last go at explaining this to you. It really is quite simple, and your view really is quite wrong. Watch also how I explain this without resorting to underline, bold or s to make my point.

Since 1996/97, both the LoI and the IL have had four teams in Europe each. That's 13 seasons, including this one. We can use the number of times each team has qualified for Europe in the past 13 years as a decent estimate of the probability of them getting into Europe in the coming years. That gives us -

Club            Times    % prob
Glentoran    12    0.92
Shels            11    0.85
Cork            10    0.77
Linfield    10    0.77
Bohs             8    0.62
Portadown     7    0.54
St Pat's     6    0.46
Cliftonville     5    0.38
Derry             4    0.31
Coleraine     4    0.31
Rovers             3    0.23
Longford     3    0.23
Drogheda     3    0.23
Glenavon     3    0.23
Crusaders     2    0.15
Omagh             2    0.15
Lisburn Dist     2    0.15
Dungannon     2    0.15
Sligo             1    0.08
Bray             1    0.08
UCD             1    0.08
Dundalk             1    0.08
Ards             1    0.08
Ballymena     1    0.08
Newry             1    0.08

This takes into account fluctuations such as you mentioned - Limerick coming from nowhere to get into Europe or Shels imploding.

The sum total of all the probabilities is 8, because there's eight Euro slots. In any given year over time, there is, for example, a 92% chance that Glentoran will be in Europe, and an 8% chance Dundalk will be in.

Now imagine we have an AIL where there's four spots going. The sum probability of the first six teams (Glentoran through Portadown) getting into Europe in any one year is 4.5. This can't be, because we only have four spots. Therefore, in order to adjust to four spots, teams will have to have their probabilities of getting into Europe reduced so that the overall sum equals four.

This, of course, is the point of the whole argument, and why your attempts to get around maths by using English are nonsense. In order for the maths to work, Glentoran's probability would reduce from 0.92 to something like 0.5 (say). That means that, instead of qualifying for Europe 92% of the time, they'd be qualifying 50% of the time.

QED.

If you want to take issue with that, I'd advise letting some international maths body know you're changing probability theory.

How long until you realise that maths/probability has nothing to do with football?

If the AIL takes place, yes there will be four less teams entering Europe. But there will be better teams competing for these places. This will lead to teams having to improve to keep hold of these places. If teams outside the European places want to break into they will have to raise their standard to a level higher than they had to before, so the standard will be raised throughout most the league, not just for the top teams.

[OneRedArmy]

The clubs that do not get picked for the new league will lose all access to European football if these proposals go through. And by the looks of it if your face doesn't fit there won't be a damn thing those clubs can do about it.

Thats like saying by me not buying a lottery ticket I won't win it.

Its factually correct but ignores the likelihood of it actually happening.

[pineapple stu]

Most people? Are these the "couple of people in the Montrose" you've mentioned before? Any time it has been mentioned by any opposition fans on the web it has been ridiculed. It has no place in an official match programme for the Eircom League.


It's a pathetic page filler if it's in an eL programme.


No, they actually have stuff to read that's relevant rather than read about food/films or some crap about random leagues.




In this thread you say we haven't filled the CPO position and say that we would probably lose our fund from the FAI. So which one is it? Not surprising to see you change your tune on topics to suit your argument.




How long until you realise that maths/probability has nothing to do with football?

If the AIL takes place, yes there will be four less teams entering Europe. But there will be better teams competing for these places. This will lead to teams having to improve to keep hold of these places. If teams outside the European places want to break into they will have to raise their standard to a level higher than they had to before, so the standard will be raised throughout most the league, not just for the top teams.

Taken to PM because you clearly don't know what points you're arguing.

[osarusan]

If the AIL takes place, yes there will be four less teams entering Europe. But there will be better teams competing for these places. This will lead to teams having to improve to keep hold of these places. If teams outside the European places want to break into they will have to raise their standard to a level higher than they had to before, so the standard will be raised throughout most the league, not just for the top teams.

First of all theres no guarantee that there will even be european places available.

Secondly, what makes you think there will be "better teams" competing for these places? Whats goint to happen to make them better than they are now?

[pete]

Probability does not factor into this issue as not all teams are equal therefore Maths logic is dead.

If you increased the LOI Premier division to 22 clubs by merging the first division this does not reduce the probability of Cork City, Bohs, Pats getting a European place as Athlone, Monaghan etc... will not challenge.

Currently Dungannon may have 15% chance of European football but an AIL would reduce that to 0%.