Are you the person on which the movie A Beautiful Mind was based?Originally Posted by pete
I'd be more concerned with what people who go to matches and read the programme think than away fans on the internet, personally. I like this section, it's lighthearted but interesting in its way.
I'm sure any more relevent/interesting content would be included if anyone were to submit it.No, they actually have stuff to read that's relevant rather than read about food/films or some crap about random leagues.
We're not arrogant, we're just better.
Stunning. Quite stunning. You contradict yourself in such a short space of time, first of all saying maths is nonsense, and then agreeing with my maths!
LOL. Why don't you just post it here seeing as this is the thread where it will be discussed? You left out a good bit you send in the text to me to- no point making yourself look a bigger fool I suppose...
I'll respond to your points on this thread later when I get the chance.
Yes that is true, but when discussing the pros and cons of the AIL proposals re euro places it isn't really relevant.
Linfield and Glentoran would be challenging for the euro places instead of Sligo and Bray, as it is at the moment.
Fine then, problem sorted.
Last edited by DmanDmythDledge; 01/07/2008 at 12:45 AM.
(a) I left out nothing - I sent you two PMs.
(b) Nobody cares; that's why it's gone to PM.
Awaiting your reply with interest.
Thus lessening the chance of a Euro place for all four. This should not be the deciding factor in whether an AIL is a good thing though. There are far more important issues than a couple of European games a season.
Excellent.Fine then, problem sorted.
We're not arrogant, we're just better.
To be fair, I think the availability of European places would be a pretty major factor in teams being willing to join any AIL.
It might be but I think that would be a bit short-sighted. Setting up an AIL would be a huge change for every club. Four clubs a year missing out on a couple of European games wouldn't be the most important change in my book.
We're not arrogant, we're just better.
I hope my contributions to this thread so far will have shown I am in no way anti UCD, but a fan of one of the four clubs likely to qualify for europe might feel differently.
Its not.
How any AIL would increase clubs revenues is pretty much the only issue.
IL clubs have an awful European record and ever since people realised Shels Euro successes were built on a pillar of sand expectations around European progress have been scaled back.
No offence taken, it's a fair point that I expected to be raised but in general fans of these clubs complain about smaller clubs holding them back because of their concerns about being left behind. I don't think this tallies with being against an AIL because of a short term loss of revenue from European games when the idea is that, long-term, they'll benefit more.
We're not arrogant, we're just better.
Theres rumour over on the ILS thread on this same topic of a 55 page proposal/business plan for the AIL having been drawn up by the Platinum one consortium, If such a document exists yet it would be great to see it and find out what they actually have planned!
He agrees with your maths but points out that its nonsense anyway - the entire point of the exercise to replace european qualifiers of Dungannon's ilk.
Your Chairperson,
Gavin
Membership Advisory Board
"Ex Bardus , Vicis"
How about we all agree that it'll be harder to qualify for Europe from an AIL and that this will be good for the league as a whole even though some clubs will miss out?
I think we're all actually agreed on this and most of this discussion is petty point scoring and rows over semantics.
Too true. In the words of Homer J. Simpson "Welcome to the internet my friend".....
I find it quite funny. I know a lot of people in this thread in the real world and we're all perfectly capable of holding an adult conversation but put them in front of a computer and they take on the temperament of an over-tired child.
I think Student Mullet's the worst. He only ever comes in to stir a bit of cac. He has about a thousand posts and I've never known him to add constructively to a discussion.
I don't disagree with this (and that's rare when GZ's concerned! Although if it's the entire point, it won't get the league far), but just wait until dcfcsteve finds out you've been dissing his "maths"!
Of course it will! Improving the average standard of UEFA qualifying teams, and by extension the standard of premier teams in general will, one hopes, knock at least one hole in the arguments against Joe Punter giving the ELoI a fair chance.
Your Chairperson,
Gavin
Membership Advisory Board
"Ex Bardus , Vicis"
Pineapple - your mathematical analysis of probability overlayed onto football is valid. Sadly - it's only valid for the time that it stays on the spreadsheet you keep next to your box of Kleenex. Take it into the real world and it breaks down quicker than Amy Winehouse in Rehab.Let's have one last go at explaining this to you. It really is quite simple, and your view really is quite wrong. Watch also how I explain this without resorting to underline, bold ors to make my point.
Since 1996/97, both the LoI and the IL have had four teams in Europe each. That's 13 seasons, including this one. We can use the number of times each team has qualified for Europe in the past 13 years as a decent estimate of the probability of them getting into Europe in the coming years. That gives us -
This takes into account fluctuations such as you mentioned - Limerick coming from nowhere to get into Europe or Shels imploding.Code:Club Times % prob Glentoran 12 0.92 Shels 11 0.85 Cork 10 0.77 Linfield 10 0.77 Bohs 8 0.62 Portadown 7 0.54 St Pat's 6 0.46 Cliftonville 5 0.38 Derry 4 0.31 Coleraine 4 0.31 Rovers 3 0.23 Longford 3 0.23 Drogheda 3 0.23 Glenavon 3 0.23 Crusaders 2 0.15 Omagh 2 0.15 Lisburn Dist 2 0.15 Dungannon 2 0.15 Sligo 1 0.08 Bray 1 0.08 UCD 1 0.08 Dundalk 1 0.08 Ards 1 0.08 Ballymena 1 0.08 Newry 1 0.08
The sum total of all the probabilities is 8, because there's eight Euro slots. In any given year over time, there is, for example, a 92% chance that Glentoran will be in Europe, and an 8% chance Dundalk will be in.
Now imagine we have an AIL where there's four spots going. The sum probability of the first six teams (Glentoran through Portadown) getting into Europe in any one year is 4.5. This can't be, because we only have four spots. Therefore, in order to adjust to four spots, teams will have to have their probabilities of getting into Europe reduced so that the overall sum equals four.
This, of course, is the point of the whole argument, and why your attempts to get around maths by using English are nonsense. In order for the maths to work, Glentoran's probability would reduce from 0.92 to something like 0.5 (say). That means that, instead of qualifying for Europe 92% of the time, they'd be qualifying 50% of the time.
QED.
If you want to take issue with that, I'd advise letting some international maths body know you're changing probability theory.
Anyone who knows anything about football will tell you that probability - along the lines you're suggesting - is only very loosely relevant to football. It's not chess ffs.
Firstly - success in football is influenced by far too many variables that a ridiculously simple 'summary' (it doesn't even qualify as a model) such as yours doesn't even begin to address. Managerial changes, player changes, injuries to key players, Boardroom strife, weather, referreeing decisions in key games, home vs away draws in cup games etc etc etc - all these will have a greater influence upon a team's likelihood of Euro qualification in any particular season than some primary schoool analysis of how often they've made it to Europe over the past 13 years.
Secondly - as the financial ads always state, past performance is no indicator of future performance. And particularly in an extremely fluid league like the EL. Your own analysis clearly supports this. Where else could Longford be considered to have a greater chance of European qualification than Drogheda ; or Shels a greater chance than - well, pretty much anyone, than in some meaningless historical analysis that bears no reflection to actual current reality ?
Thirdly - as Pete pointed out, the maths of your analysis is shakier than Michael J Fox's tea-cup, by virtue of assuming all clubs are equal. They're not. We all know that. And the inequality fluctutes over time - making past performance even less relevant (note Shels and Drogheda again as examples). Again - the world of geek maths fails to acknowledge the hard, cold realities of life. For example, how can every club you list be assumed to have an equal chance of European qualification when they don't all have equal access to European slots in the first place (due to different divisions) ? Also - I'm sure the good people of Omagh will be delighted to hear you give them a shot at qualification for European football - almost 3 years to the day after their club went pop. Naughty, difficult reality playing havoc yet again with your beloved mathematical probabilities.
I could go on - but I suspect that the sensible on here will have more than an inkling that your assesment is so bogus that Bill and Ted are about to sue for breach of patent. You've always come across as a bean counter first and a football fan second - which is why I suspect you're struggling with the heresy of the cold fact that mathematical models often break down when transfered from spreadsheet into eveyday reality. Particularly in the illogical, multi-variable world of football. Which, after all, is a core part of why people love the whole game in the first place......
IFor someone who think's they're only none step away from being John Forbes Nash (aka 'A Beautiful Mind') you seem peculiarly incapable of grasping one of the core caveats of mathematical analysis. Your example assumes that all participants are equal. Hence why it's meaningless. In football, teams never are. And their relative inequality fluctuates wildly over time (back to the Shels and Drogd extremes) which makes the above even more pointless as an analogy.
I think Pineapple's basic point is that it would be harder for a club to qualify for Europe in the proposed league. I think that is correct, whether it's a good thing or a bad thing is more a matter of opinion.
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