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Thread: The R Word

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    Director dahamsta's Avatar
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    The R Word

    So the ESRI says we're in recession, big surprise. Are we in for a long one or is it just a dip? Discuss.

    adam

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    At least we didn't just p*ss the boom times up the wall, and have our world class transport infrastructure, world class health service, world class nationwide broadband to help us attract and develop investment...

    I think it could be a long one, given that the last 5 years (at least) has been built on dodgier foundations than some of the crap apartments that were rushed up. We were too relient on one small sector that was fueling itself, and unfortunately are now leader didn't see it coming.
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    Seasoned Pro Block G Raptor's Avatar
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    Well I've just been given notice that my job is at risk

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    Reserves Angus's Avatar
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    Hard to say - recession is both a technical term (2 quarters of negative growth ?) but is really a state of collective economic mind.

    I see difficulties for the rest of year and in 2009 but if managed properly (easy to say but hard to see in reality esp. with industrial relations) we will start to improve in 2010.

    I can't see us managing it properly so I am seeing difficulties into 2010 and possibly 2011. Unfortunately we will then be into an election where all sanity is suspended so I am saying this is a 5 year dip.

    Not a trough or a slump but a dip. Not a recession of 1980's standard but a drop off in growth, reduced confidence, higher unemployment - not good for anybody in that position but I would be confident that most of the drop off in activity will get us back to even keel i.e. we have been at over capacity for a number of years - no harm having a slower time.

    This is of no comfort to somebody who loses their job, natch, but I am still seeing unemployment at very low levels comparitively speaking.
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    Another problem is that our leaders will be so caught up with the European crisis (Lisbon) that they will have little of no time to come up with some solutions to our domestic crisis.
    Always look on the bright side of life

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    Now we'll see what Cowen is made off! Can't say the so called big brain - Brian Lenihan has impressed particularly with his self pitying remarks last week about taking the finance Ministerial post on the gusp of a recession!

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    Seasoned Pro GavinZac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Macy View Post
    At least we didn't just p*ss the boom times up the wall, and have our world class transport infrastructure, world class health service, world class nationwide broadband to help us attract and develop investment...
    All of which we're supposed to magically develop in a decade when our closest neighbours haven't been able to do so in 60 years.

    To quote a song, "Panic Bells, Red Alert, there's something here, from somewhere else". We've imported this 'recession' from the USA. Their current dip is based upon the banks reeling back in their money to protect themselves when they realised they were handing out money willy-nilly. Just as the microcosm here is being blamed on too much credit, the USA needs some time to readjust and drive onward. More importantly, it needs something to pat them on the back and say everything will be ok - confidence has a huge impact on markets and such. I would say something like a new president could be enough to turn the corner, over there.

    How about over here? Well, going on that optimistic assumption, we've got a few months to readjust ourselves now. Its probably fair to say that the jobs we got by having cheap, willing labour are probably gone, for the moment. It would take quite a few years of recession to get even factory labour prices down to something competitive with other out-sourcing areas, e.g. Eastern Europe, India. So we've got to find another way to be in a ready position when the good times come calling again. With 0 natural resources and the 'educated workforce' idea pretty much a half-truth at the moment, our best bet would be a cultural cost of living reduction - i.e. stop losing billions by "p*ssing them up the wall" gambling or drinking or buying rubbish in M&S, stop subsidising the insurance cartel, reduce our energy costs. Lower costs encourage business be it foreign or, hopefully, national.
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    Question

    Aside from the ESRI reports & such does any one get the impression from their surroundings that we are headng towards recession? Seems to be a bit of the titanic approach from our leaders? I think they said 7% unemployment is on the way

    Hard to say how long this will last. Is this mainly caused by drop in construction? Is there evidence affecting other sectors in great numbers?
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    The country runs on the construction industry its a very simple solution when the private sector dries up you start spending on the public sector , there is billions of euros worth of work out there if the goverment got off there arse and started building the schools hospitals roads and other infrastructure needed to link all the new housing estates they alloud to be build to the cities.

    I cant understand why they havent done this the private developers are sitting on huge projects that they wont move on untill things pick up a quick simple boost from the public sector would get things moving the private sector would come back into it and the country would take off again. That is all that is needed. Its very very simple.


    But i was allwasy envious of the guys in the 80's not having to get up and go to work every day imagine just hanging around with your mates all day brilliant !!

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    Quote Originally Posted by anto1208 View Post
    The country runs on the construction industry its a very simple solution when the private sector dries up you start spending on the public sector , there is billions of euros worth of work out there if the goverment got off there arse and started building the schools hospitals roads and other infrastructure needed to link all the new housing estates they alloud to be build to the cities. !
    I am all in favour of spending on infrastructure but where will the money come from to pay for it? There is a going to be a massive drop in tax revenues this year. You don't increase taxes in a recession. EU handouts are drying up & Lisbon 2 vote won't make it easier to get new ones.

    I think collective bargaining with the unions will be dead as Cowen won't be able to charm them like Bertie. There will be increase in strikes too.
    http://www.forastrust.ie/

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    Seasoned Pro OneRedArmy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GavinZac View Post
    We've imported this 'recession' from the USA. Their current dip is based upon the banks reeling back in their money to protect themselves when they realised they were handing out money willy-nilly. Just as the microcosm here is being blamed on too much credit, the USA needs some time to readjust and drive onward. More importantly, it needs something to pat them on the back and say everything will be ok - confidence has a huge impact on markets and such. I would say something like a new president could be enough to turn the corner, over there.
    Gavin, thats not true. The credit crunch will deepen the recession but it didn't cause it. Our own property bubble caused it.

    The impact of the credit crunch only really took effect in Q4 last year (arguable Q1 this year to trickle down to consumers), despite the subprime issue "breaking" last summer.

    By that stage our housing boom was already on a down-cycle and prices had been falling for quite a while.

    I'll re-iterate what I said in my other post, there is no such thing as a soft landing and never has been. We were going to go into recession anyway, unfortunately the credit crunch is going to deepen it.

    Quote Originally Posted by pete View Post
    I am all in favour of spending on infrastructure but where will the money come from to pay for it? There is a going to be a massive drop in tax revenues this year. You don't increase taxes in a recession. EU handouts are drying up & Lisbon 2 vote won't make it easier to get new ones.

    I think collective bargaining with the unions will be dead as Cowen won't be able to charm them like Bertie. There will be increase in strikes too.
    Temporary breach of public sector borrowing limits.
    Last edited by dahamsta; 24/06/2008 at 11:55 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OneRedArmy View Post
    Temporary breach of public sector borrowing limits.
    How far would we need to go to pay for current planned infrastructure. Infrastructure is vital but I see nothing that has convinced me the government is getting value for money as opposed to the last 10 years where money was thrown at problems.

    I think you are correct about house prices. They were already falling before credit crunch started to increase mortgage rates.

    Irish Inflation

    Irish inflation is over 1% above the Euro zone. Bizarre we heading for negative growth & inflation at almost 5%.
    http://www.forastrust.ie/

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    International Prospect jebus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pete View Post
    Aside from the ESRI reports & such does any one get the impression from their surroundings that we are headng towards recession? Seems to be a bit of the titanic approach from our leaders? I think they said 7% unemployment is on the way
    Half of my girlffiends graphic design firm were laid off 6 weeks ago (she was part of it but thankfully had been referred to another design company by her then boss so picked up a job straight away)

    Pay freezes across the board and talk of voluntary redundancy has been put around my office so I expect heavy layoffs by the start of next year

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    Time for Cowen to stick the boot into Public Servants (what an oxymoron !!) and tell them they're getting a 10% pay cut...and if they won't accept that then Cowen needs to publickly declare that Public Servants are the reason behind a slashing of services...

    Secondly top rate tax needs to be moved to 43% asap, cgt pushed up to 24%, price control on food and other basic items needs to be implemented and likes of Tescos sorted out.

    We need to borrow to the limit and fund the national plan ( but all contractors need to be told we're chopping 5% to 10% off all agreed contracts or projects will be shut down).

    Politicians need to also take a 10% pay cut.... and a 'tallaght' style consenus should be broached by all parties.

    The above is what leadership is all about... I've no doubt Cowen will fail to deliver because he isn't officer material and secondly the great Irish public have IMO no sense of community and have grown high on the hog over the last ten years and it will be every man/woman for themselves when the real fun starts which I reckon will be around next September.

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    We wouldn't have time to worry about recession - what with all the industrial action, court cases and people dying on the streets...
    If you attack me with stupidity, I'll be forced to defend myself with sarcasm.

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    Seasoned Pro OneRedArmy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Block G Raptor View Post
    Well I've just been given notice that my job is at risk
    Sorry to hear that BGR. Hopefully you're ok.

    What line of work are you in?

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    Coach Pauro 76's Avatar
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    Was kind of thinking of returning to work in Dublin next year. I take its not a good time to even consider employment in Dublin or anywhere else in Ireland? I work in the printing trade/graphic design... sorry to hear about the job fears too BGR....
    Last edited by Pauro 76; 24/06/2008 at 1:49 PM.
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    Director dahamsta's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angus View Post
    Hard to say - recession is both a technical term (2 quarters of negative growth ?) but is really a state of collective economic mind.
    It is, but so is being nasty to people when you're in a bad mood, and deciding when to go for a poo in an office environment. The hawks were already toeing the "talked ourselves into it" line last night, let's not pander to their weak excuses. The recession has been exacerbated by the credit crunch, property bubble and collective conciousness, certainly, but it was caused by chronic mismanagement by Fianna Fail and the PDs.

    adam


    * And the Greens to a certain extent, since they've completely lost touch with reality since they went into Government, but we can hardly blame them for the decade of mismangement before them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauro 76 View Post
    Was kind of thinking of returning to work in Dublin next year. I take its not a good time to even consider employment in Dublin or anywhere else in Ireland?
    Too early to say what it'll be like next year, or how it'll effect individual, non construction trades I would've thought.
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    Coach Pauro 76's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Macy View Post
    Too early to say what it'll be like next year, or how it'll effect individual, non construction trades I would've thought.
    Cheers Macy!
    'Fascists dress in black and go round telling people what to do, where as priests.....'

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