Is it already too late?

[Dodge]

People tend to rank their votes from most ambitious to least

Source please?

[GavinZac]

Source please?

well...

total vote for independents considering the numbers that ran nationally compared to the 4 that were brought to support the Government

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%C3%A1....28May_2007.29
As we can see from these figures, in virtually every case, smaller parties gained a larger proportion of first preference votes than actual seats in the house, while larger parties gained more seats than they did first preference votes. Thus, voters are ranking indepenants and micro-parties first, then placing larger parties below, so that their vote actually counts if the independants dont succeed. This is entirely expected as its pretty much what the STV was set up for, and it would be pretty pointless to select a sure-fire candidate in first, and an outsider in second; given the cast unlikeliness that your vote will be transferred. The Irish public have been voting like this since 1919 and it has even influenced other areas of Irish like, like the preference system for the CAO.

For more reading:
http://proinsias.net/publications/pr...inorities.html
http://www.isye.gatech.edu/~jjb/papers/stv.pdf

[BohsPartisan]

Well, its a bit wild to be making statements like that given our 'first choice, second choice' and so on system, but going on first preference votes:

Fianna Fail 41.6%
Green Part 4.7%
PDs 2.7%

Makes 49% of first preference votes, within the margin of error for the one-decimal-place figures. Given that the independents tallied 5.7% of first preference votes, most of whom that were elected are technically in government, I think its safe to say that, on first preference votes alone, you're wrong.

The independents are not technically part of the government, they support the government in return for concessions in particular areas mostly local issues. A lot of people who voted for them would have done so out of a protest vote so you can't count them. A lot of Green voters saw them as part of an alternative grouping along with FG and Lab. So its dubious to say that a majority voted for a return to FF/PD rule with the same agenda as the previous government.

[GavinZac]

The independents are not technically part of the government, they support the government in return for concessions in particular areas mostly local issues. A lot of people who voted for them would have done so out of a protest vote so you can't count them.

As Dodge would say, 'source'? What makes you say that? It would be interesting if there's stats about to see votes transferred etc. Purely from the figures above, it looks like the opposite. Lots of people doing the old 'vote for an independent, let them bribe government' trick, and putting a major party in second. The major party with the most votes was Fianna Fail.

Regardless, I think its probably naive to say you can't count them as the government-proper has 49%+ of the first preference votes so we're talking about a fraction of a percent needed of people who decided to vote for an independent with a history of going into partnership with the FF government.

A lot of Green voters saw them as part of an alternative grouping along with FG and Lab. So its dubious to say that a majority voted for a return to FF/PD rule with the same agenda as the previous government.

Would a committed Greens voter really put an independent down ahead of a Green candidate? The Green party was perceived as relatively close to micro-party status before the election. Voting Green would've been the ambitious bit, throwing an opposition party or their future government partners (again, it'd be interesting to see the figures; if the percentage of Green voters that were backing an FG-L-Gr gov is much higher than those purely voting green or voting FF-Gr, it could be case for saying there could be some dissatisfaction with the greens for jumping into bed with FF) would've been the sure-fire vote to ensure your vote counts.