TheCursed Value Bet Thread

[bholg]

In a single bet on an eircom league game the bookies price it up to 111%. On occasion they will price up a game wrong and one of the selections will be good value. They will never price a load of games wrong. By doing an accum you are multiplying the margin with every selection you add so the actual odds of winning the bet are much higher than the odds you will be getting.

Eircom league is one area where some people on here will know more and have better info than some of the bookies. If you pick your best bet every week and just put a bet on that match you will have a much better chance of being in profit at the end of the year.

Makes perfect sense... its hard not to be a bit adventurous (greedy) though, especially - as I said, with small stakes

[gilberto_eire]

You will get him at 37/1 on betfair at the mo... just to up the value

Just looking at his form.. ran twice at aintree... fell and pulled up.... longest race he has won is 3m2f a long way off 4 1/2 miles... second recently over this distance on soft ground to -in the loop-... but he beat point barrow, who is a much shorter price



If it was to stay dry, I like Butlers Cabin - he seems to need good ground though..

Can we talk about this in another thread... not that Im superstitious or anything!!!

Don't remember him falling there but the race he was pulled up was last year, he got left behind the main group as he's a slow horse, was jumping by himself a fence or two back was only pulled up because the jockey(can't remember who) knew he had no chance of catching the main group(was'nt like a normal pull-up where the horse is struggling). If he can keep up with the pace he will have a great chance at a big price(i backed him last year at much lower odds then that)

As i said, has'nt a hope unless the ground stays soft. Had a good win at Cheltenham last year(?) with Ruby on board came up the hill like a train and passed out about 10 horses to win(great stamina for a chaser) as i've said. That's at least two occassions i can remember him coming late like that and it's an indication he can last further

[swano]

Makes perfect sense... its hard not to be a bit adventurous (greedy) though, especially - as I said, with small stakes

Agree with that. If you're only going to be betting a tenner a week it's easy to write off and the seldom occasion you click an accum will give you more pleasure than winning small money more often.

[zenokelly]

Dun Doire in the Grand National on Saturday. Was cut from 33-1 to 25-1 but i've only looked at Ladbrokes might still get 33's somewhere!.
Did'nt get the ground last year and was left for dead as he's a very slow chaser but he can has bags of stamina(hence needs soft ground which it was'nt last year!)

He's as good as a cert to get around as you'll find, as his jumping is brilliant. Been following him for 2 years(he won 8-9 handicap races in a row, i had most of them and from that he became my fav. horse). His preparation last year was better, has'nt run well in his prep runs but i think he's too well priced to pass over!

Well there is no value in the Grand National, one reason I don't back singles!
But this may be more value: Dun Doire to finish the Grand National 11/10 with PP.

HE's bottom weight and Tony Martin is a very smart young trainer of handicap horses.

[Rovers fan]

HE's bottom weight and Tony Martin is a very smart young trainer of handicap horses.

I would never bet on a Tony Martin horse,he can never be trusted.

[TheBoss]

Ok, Here I go:

Friday
Bray vs Finn Harps -> Finn Harps @ 8/5

Saturday
Arsenal vs Liverpool -> Arsenal @ 1/1
Wigan vs Birmingham -> Wigan @ 1/1
Colchester vs Ipswich -> Ipswich @ 11/10
Plymouth vs Charlton -> Plymouth @ 11/10
St Etienne vs Le Mans - > St Etienne @ 1/1

Sunday
Athletic Bilbao vs Espanyol -> Athletic Bilbao @ 1/1

[TheBoss]

Munster +3 away to Gloucester @10/11 in the Heineken cup next weekend with skybet.

Handicap was put up after the last round which was months ago. Since then Gloucester have been woeful, even losing to Worcester last weekend with their strongest team. Munster have been improving all season and should do a number on the gloucester forwards.

You got that right, see this thread is not cursed

[drinkfeckarse]

Not sure about that, my 4 teamer was up again There must be something in it

[JC_GUFC]

Maybe you're just the one cursed Boss!

I saw you tipped up Bilbao, backed them myself as I'd seen Espanyol play the last 2 weeks (0-4 A v Murcia, 0-3 H v Racing) but Bilbao were v lucky. It was all Espanyol in the second half and they even missed a penalty, I think some low flying aircraft may have been taken out by the penalty!

You should have a look around for better odds though, Bilbao were available at 5/4 in places, likewise Harps were as big as 15/8. You're doing yourself out of money by backing at short odds...

http://www.bestbetting.com

is a good odds comparison site, there's also a tab on it to let you know what free bets each company offer. I know it's hassle to open accounts with 5 or 10 different bookies but it's worth it in the long run...

[JC_GUFC]

Just a midweek bet I like the look of.

Airdrie at home to Ross County in Scots Division 2 @ 11/8.

Ross County won the league on Saturday so have obviously been on the **** all weekend. Airdrie are in second place in the league so will be looking to win to guarantee their playoff spot.

Ross County are obviously the better side but with nothing to play for away at the second best side in the division 11/8 with Betfred looks a bet to me.

Actually just on the note that I made above I had to open an account with them to get the bet on. They're offering a decent value free bet. They'll match your first bet up to €75 and then after 5 more bets of €15 or more they'll give you another €75 free bet.

[TheBoss]

I usually use oddschecker but I just give a guide price, I know you can get better value but you probably need 10 accounts, and 1 will just do me

[holidaysong]

Just a midweek bet I like the look of.

Airdrie at home to Ross County in Scots Division 2 @ 11/8.

Ross County won the league on Saturday so have obviously been on the **** all weekend. Airdrie are in second place in the league so will be looking to win to guarantee their playoff spot.

Ross County are obviously the better side but with nothing to play for away at the second best side in the division 11/8 with Betfred looks a bet to me.

Actually just on the note that I made above I had to open an account with them to get the bet on. They're offering a decent value free bet. They'll match your first bet up to €75 and then after 5 more bets of €15 or more they'll give you another €75 free bet.

Good tip there, thanks.

[ForzaWexford]

Tyrone to beat Mayo at 5/6 with Ladbrokes. I put too much on but sure you only live once.

[ForzaWexford]

Tyrone 0-15 Mayo 0-13. Happy Days.

[TheBoss]

Things are changing

[drinkfeckarse]

Got combined odds of over 8.5/1 for Swansea, Man Utd and Portsmouth which I thought was decent enough value. Obviously Pompey let the side down to make it 3 weeks running but they were all around the evens mark.

On a side note following Anto's advice, I'd noted that Lescott hadn't scored in a few games so made a mental note last week to put some cash on him as first and anytime goalscorer for the last few league games.....

then completely forgot about it when I was in the bookies on Saturday. Chance lost now I'd say

[ForzaWexford]

JC_GUFC reckons Drogheda are a good price at 4/5. I can only get 8/11 with Boyles.

Won 25 points yesterday on the Gaa bet, 6 of them going on the Drogs now and maybe 5 more closer to kick-off depending on team news.

[anto1208]

Got combined odds of over 8.5/1 for Swansea, Man Utd and Portsmouth which I thought was decent enough value. Obviously Pompey let the side down to make it 3 weeks running but they were all around the evens mark.

On a side note following Anto's advice, I'd noted that Lescott hadn't scored in a few games so made a mental note last week to put some cash on him as first and anytime goalscorer for the last few league games.....

then completely forgot about it when I was in the bookies on Saturday. Chance lost now I'd say

Your not the only one that forgot to do that. Ive had such a bad run im down to 50 euro in the account i wont put any more in so my bets are gone very small. left off that lesscott one this weekend !!

[sligoman]

Small bet on Cork/Drogheda double tonight.

[ForzaWexford]

Ok, so...

10 points Drogs 8/11
1 point Drogs -1 15/8

Tempted to put a bit more on, or maybe a double with Cork, but the amount of times I've won money 1 day and lost it all the next is stupid...