TheCursed Value Bet Thread

**zenokelly** · 29/03/2008, 4:12 PM

Originally Posted by bholg

Gonna try this one...

Galway Utd v Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 5/4
Cobh Ramblers v Cork Cork City 4/6
Sunderland v West Ham Sunderland 13/10
Portsmouth v Wigan Portsmouth 8/11

Worried about porsmouths dodgy home form this season ... small stake.
Bet pays almost 14-1

Its time the curse was lifted.....

Going well but I'd delete that post ASAP with the cursed thread that this is!

**bholg** · 30/03/2008, 5:59 PM

Typical...

would have thought Cork the safest of the 4..... ho hum...the curse endures another week...

**anto1208** · 31/03/2008, 8:55 AM

This thread is cursed first time i didnt post any of my bets and i win 90 euro !!

**TheBoss** · 31/03/2008, 10:25 AM

In that the case, why do the bookies always win then ?

**anto1208** · 31/03/2008, 10:39 AM

Originally Posted by TheBoss

In that the case, why do the bookies always win then ?

Coz they dont post here !

**drinkfeckarse** · 31/03/2008, 11:37 AM

Have to agree with you Anto, my 4 teamer was up this weekend at odds of 11/1. It seems if you want to win yourself some cash then the last thing you should do is broadcast your picks here

The last time I did it I excelled myself by getting every single one wrong

**TheBoss** · 31/03/2008, 1:29 PM

Originally Posted by drinkfeckarse

Have to agree with you Anto, my 4 teamer was up this weekend at odds of 11/1. It seems if you want to win yourself some cash then the last thing you should do is broadcast your picks here

The last time I did it I excelled myself by getting every single one wrong

11/1 = 8.33% Chance of winning

**swano** · 31/03/2008, 4:20 PM

Munster +3 away to Gloucester @10/11 in the Heineken cup next weekend with skybet.

Handicap was put up after the last round which was months ago. Since then Gloucester have been woeful, even losing to Worcester last weekend with their strongest team. Munster have been improving all season and should do a number on the gloucester forwards.

**TheBoss** · 31/03/2008, 5:25 PM

Away games in Rugby are often hard, You would have to be really certain it will happen if you were to put a bet on.

**swano** · 31/03/2008, 5:31 PM

So you're telling me you are really certain when you put up 10 football matches over a day or two

I think the price is wrong as it was priced up after the last round. Form since then suggests that Munster should not be getting a 3 point start so that is why i have backed them. You can never be "certain" about any bet, but if the match is priced up wrong then it is a good value bet.

**anto1208** · 01/04/2008, 1:01 PM

Right one last time i will chance it man Utd V Roma 0-0 7/1

**Dodge** · 01/04/2008, 1:07 PM

People sticking 4 teams in an accie and calling it value?

**Raheny Red** · 01/04/2008, 7:25 PM

And people thinking that by posting in the thread their selection will lose?

**TheBoss** · 01/04/2008, 10:58 PM

It will come good soon, this thread just needs a few winners and the luck will spread to all

**anto1208** · 02/04/2008, 8:17 AM

Originally Posted by Raheny Red

And people thinking that by posting in the thread their selection will lose?

Well ive started winning again as soon as i stopped putting them up here !!!

**bholg** · 02/04/2008, 9:12 AM

Originally Posted by Dodge

People sticking 4 teams in an accie and calling it value?

Depends on the prices i suppose... you can see value in a big priced accumulator if it is not 6-10 results priced at 1/7 or 2/5 etc.. Four teams to pick isnt impossible by any stretch... I know my last weekends pick came a cropper, so no need to remind me.

If you are willing to take lower returns for yer cash you can do a yankee or something similar.. means you can usually get the stake back when 1 result lets you down.

With football betting unless you are putting large stakes on the only way to win a few quid is to pick a few results..

**gilberto_eire** · 03/04/2008, 1:08 AM

Dun Doire in the Grand National on Saturday. Was cut from 33-1 to 25-1 but i've only looked at Ladbrokes might still get 33's somewhere!.
Did'nt get the ground last year and was left for dead as he's a very slow chaser but he can has bags of stamina(hence needs soft ground which it was'nt last year!)

He's as good as a cert to get around as you'll find, as his jumping is brilliant. Been following him for 2 years(he won 8-9 handicap races in a row, i had most of them and from that he became my fav. horse). His preparation last year was better, has'nt run well in his prep runs but i think he's too well priced to pass over!

**bholg** · 03/04/2008, 8:56 AM

You will get him at 37/1 on betfair at the mo... just to up the value

Just looking at his form.. ran twice at aintree... fell and pulled up.... longest race he has won is 3m2f a long way off 4 1/2 miles... second recently over this distance on soft ground to -in the loop-... but he beat point barrow, who is a much shorter price

If it was to stay dry, I like Butlers Cabin - he seems to need good ground though..

Can we talk about this in another thread... not that Im superstitious or anything!!!

**swano** · 03/04/2008, 10:51 AM

Originally Posted by bholg

Depends on the prices i suppose... you can see value in a big priced accumulator if it is not 6-10 results priced at 1/7 or 2/5 etc.. Four teams to pick isnt impossible by any stretch... I know my last weekends pick came a cropper, so no need to remind me.

If you are willing to take lower returns for yer cash you can do a yankee or something similar.. means you can usually get the stake back when 1 result lets you down.

With football betting unless you are putting large stakes on the only way to win a few quid is to pick a few results..

In a single bet on an eircom league game the bookies price it up to 111%. On occasion they will price up a game wrong and one of the selections will be good value. They will never price a load of games wrong. By doing an accum you are multiplying the margin with every selection you add so the actual odds of winning the bet are much higher than the odds you will be getting.

Eircom league is one area where some people on here will know more and have better info than some of the bookies. If you pick your best bet every week and just put a bet on that match you will have a much better chance of being in profit at the end of the year.