QuoteThanks AngusOriginally Posted by Angus
looking at the wiki page there, the citizens of Dixville have an un-canny knack for voting for the loser
First concrete results in the early hous of the morning but a clear sense from exit pools around 11.00pm / midnight Irish time.
For the anoraks among us, the first few villages have already voted <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch>
DB Cooper is alive !
Thanks Angus
looking at the wiki page there, the citizens of Dixville have an un-canny knack for voting for the loser
The NH vote was locked this morning for Obama and McCain, Hilary could be finished by this time tomorrow though, so that's all I'm looking out for in the results tonight
[QUOTE=Angus;849514]I think it is difficult to understand a lot of issues like that unless you live in the US. I believe he is basically anti federal government & wants a lot of power to return to the states. A lot of people in Europe are unhappy about extra power for the EU... Aside from speaking the same language many US states have little else in common.
If nothing else it is good to see US politician actually saying maybe there other reasons for Islamic attacks aside from the standard line that they "hates our freedom". You can ever see the Fox News lackies basically suggesting that he can't say that.
I'm not sure they are. It's not exactly a point of conversation I come across on a regular basis. I think a lot of people in Ireland might be unhappy about being bullied by the EU and the Irish Goverment, time and time again, into treaties they want to examine in more detail or want reviewed, but that's not the same thing.
Hilary is in a slight lead over Obamaat 1.40 am. Some comeback.
McCain is being called as the winner for the GOP on CNN.
Jayz, I thought that the Hillary-victory declaration and concessions seemed very premature. It looks to me like she'll win by about 1%
City definetly have the best bands playing at half-time.
O'Bama - "Eerah yeah, I'd say we can alright!"
G.O'Mahoney Trapattoni'll sort ém out!!
I have been watching these things for 25 years and this is one of the most amazing results.
There have been 3 elections I can remember being stunned at what was hapenning - Labour beating the Tories in 1997 - I was still up when Portillo lost, Bush beating Kerry in 2004 when all of the exit polls suggested differently and now last night.
All of the pundits had a double digit win for Obama - the polls and focus groups (Frank Luntz - find a new job, baby) and bookmakers and everybody on all of the channels were anointing the guy as a rock star.
The true sign of an election shockj is when the candidates and their handlers are shocked at the result - Terry McAuliffe (Clinton camp) was on Fascist news last night doing the "national campaign / 50 states / very early - super tuesday" lark, essentially conceding defeat in NH.
They were in panic - Carville and Begala were being touted as coming back to help - Drudge had her about to quit and then she goes and pulls off a win like this.
Incredible stuff - if you had offered Obama these 2 results 2 months ago he would have bitten your hand off - now he probably feels deflated.
Less surprising on the GOP side and the contrast is remarkable - the GOP voted exactly as polled - the Dems were all over the place. What that suggests is that Dems are not being polled properly, are being evasive on answers or the pollsters are polling the wrong people.
Yet another massive Dem turnout - I lost money last night on barack but have made on him so far - backed him to win the nomination when he was 15/1 and sold it out last week.
This is now trench warfare - impossible to determine how this is going to play.
Not often I am stunned by poltiical results but this is one time........
Watch Russert in the last 90 seconds of this clip - as ever he articulates it perfectly
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540...61310#22565897
Last edited by Angus; 09/01/2008 at 7:31 AM. Reason: Content
DB Cooper is alive !
Was v-surprised to hear the news this morning. Go Hill!!
The only type of turnaround against pollsters expectations I can recall on this scale was in the UK in 92.
Even in the 97 landslide there was a whiff of a thumping coming and the UK system makes it hard to predict the scale of such a beating after around a majority of 60/70 is predicted because they line between 60 and 160 is a lot thinner than between 20 and 60 so I generally give the pollsters a pass on that one. In fairness to them as well they called the exit polls perfectly that time as well.
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Excellent post Angus.
It should have been a Clinton night, by the nature of the state, but the indicators pointed towards Obama last night, to the point that after a fashion, they were conceding during the day, talking about Super Tuesday. What a fillip. Next up is going to be interesting. I am hoping that Edwards might pull in Carolina as he will play the local card (born there) and it would be great to see him open it up a little bit more.
No surprise with McCain (prolly except from Romney) - I strongly feel he is going to grab that nom, and is probably the most acceptable to most of that side of the house. Will be interesting to see how he gets on in the other states. Classic McCain in the victory speech, Papa America / Mr. Deeds all over, who tells it how he sees it, with a smell of the Regan charm. And going on for ever.
"Totally stunned, Keith, totally!" - gold.
Next Primaries:
15-1 Michigan
19-1 Nevada,
26-1 South Carolina
29-1 Florida
Some very interesting stuff on Wiki if it is true about the rules regarding holding the primaries, and how certain states, especially Michigan, have broken rules about time of occurence and how they are being punished.
That question was less stupid, though you asked it in a profoundly stupid way.
Help me, Arthur Murphy, you're my only hope!
No surprise with McCain, but the biggest surprise for me was how all of us (including myself) could have been blinded to the fact that a strong Democrat turnout in a pro-Clinton state would have given Hilary a chance of beating Obama.
Looking at the exit poll breakdown it seems the Catholics and the female vote really swung it for Hilary here, with Barack not being able to pick up the same number of swing Republicans as he did in Iowa. A setback for him alright, but as Angus said, this would have been a very desirable position for him to be in 2 weeks, and it looks like it's really going to come down to who can broker the best deals on the floor at Super Tuesday. That's why my money is still on Barack. He has the independents sewn up, any swing Republicans will go with the Obama/Edwards ticket that is in the pipeline, and add them to an Obama/Edwards core support and I think they will have the numbers to get the nomination. My only fear is that the Democrats will tear each other apart to get the nod, and then that the loser of the race will fail to back the victor fully, as has happened in that party many times, costing them many elections
Big win for Clinton & massive failure by the pollsters. There is a margin of error but to be so far out even in exit polls is very bad.
Both campaigns will go down to the wire although field will be trimmed post Super Tuesday. Edwards & Huckabee to be Vice President nominees although might be a problem if Guiliani wins Republican nomination.
What candidate is best for Ireland?
Pete, do you think Guiliani is still in the race? Am aware that he would have not expected to win either of the two states so far but he has performed terribly? Will he even last until super Tuesday, I am not convinced he will.
McCain and Huckabee would be a formidable combination if as Jebus suggested the Democrats tear each other apart internally. However, history is not on the republican side as only George Snr has bucked the trend of a party change after an 8 year office (Basically Reagan, Reagan, Bush).
Thankfully I am not the only one watching this with interest, for the last few weeks I was worried I was becoming a very sad individual.
I'd have to say Clinton, her and Bill have a favorable track record on the peace process. also wouldn't say they welcomed anywhere on their traveles like they were here. that kind of impression lasts
Interest/ terror at some of them beig head of arguably the most powerful county on earthThankfully I am not the only one watching this with interest, for the last few weeks I was worried I was becoming a very sad individual.
Rudy will still be there on Super Tuesday beautifulrock, he didn't even canvas in Iowa or NH, he's focusing all his efforts on the big states, and I have a feeling it will tell in the Florida primary, where Ican see him winning the Republican side of it. When it comes to Super Tuesday though, I don't know, can't see him getting the Repubican nomination, but could see him lining up with McCain as Vice-President, and running on the fact that both of them are seen as American heroes, and people who understand how to tackle the War on Terror
Interesting tactic, will keep an eye on that, appreciate the heads up. Do you not think that a McCain/Huckabee ticket has a wider appeal as it will basically cover the war hero and the vital bible belt hero quite nicely.
Well the buzzword of change is gonna be the biggest factor in the primaries (think it will die out for the actual election though), and people want to follow Obama's example of uniting the two parties. With that in mind I think Rudy would be a better fit for a Vice President because he is seen as someone who is tough but fair (to use a cliche), especially if the far right step up their campaign of painting him as a very liberal Republican (pro-choice, pro civil rights, divorced man etc.) they could push him further into the centre/centre left's good books, and would encourage the swing voters to go for McCain instead of Obama or Clinton. I think the middle ground of American politics wants to get rid of the influence the Bible Belt hold over the White House at the moment, and the middle ground is all important in this election
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