BGR, do you have any idea how ignorant you sound? "Time of the month"? What age are you, ten?
Knocl the juvenile stuff on the head, now. This is your last warning.
Delighted for Obama, and it's a very big step towards convincing his doubters that he is the man for the White House. If America aren't ready for a black or female president in this day and age then there really is no hope for the world with them voting as it's 'leader'
EDIT: Any chance we could move this to the Presidental Elections Thread? I think it would be interesting to keep that thread going throughout the year and not to split it into various threads
Last edited by jebus; 04/01/2008 at 9:05 AM.
Jesus adam it was a little light humour (hence the smiley)Originally Posted by dahamsta
BGR, do you have any idea how ignorant you sound? "Time of the month"? What age are you, ten?
Knocl the juvenile stuff on the head, now. This is your last warning.
Well d'uh. Doesn't mean they'll vote that way and you can be guarenteed to see ads in certain places playing on his race/her gender.
Anyone read the Hillary quote about he part in NI. Basically made out that it was all her, despite most analysts believing she had a tiny superficial role.
54,321 sold - wws will never die - ***
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I realise that, but as long as the black/female president angle doesn't become one of the main issues then I'll be happy no matter the result in November. One of the main reasons that I prefer Barack to Hilary is that I haven't heard a peep from Baracks camp about the black vote coming out for him, where as Hilary's people have already started in on the First Female President trip
Thats because they realise he has that pretty much sown up. He dosn't need to campaign to Black America as he (and most obsevers) reckon he'll get 80+% of their vote
54,321 sold - wws will never die - ***
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New blog if anyone's interested - http://loihistory.wordpress.com/
LOI section on balls.ie - http://balls.ie/league-of-ireland/
But there's never a given in American politics, and when it comes to Hilary having Bill (who is very popular among black voters) it especially can't be taken as certain that Barack will get 80% of the black vote (what of black Republican swing voters for example).
Either way it will be seen as historic if Barack gets voted into the White House, and even though I know it will have to be touched on if he gets the Democrat's seal of approval, the fact he hasn't touched on how historic it will be during the primaries and has solely focused on his policies is the mark of someone I would want in power in Washington
It was a very strong performance from Obama - interestingly, on Fox News, whose coverage was surprisingly not partisan, there was talk that turnout was key to Obama.
They had 125,000 in the Dem Iowa caucus in 2004, which was a big turnout year - they had 250,000 last night - that could be significant for future states if Obama can get out the vote.
Betting wise, I backed him at a big price a long time ago but hedged it out this morning as I think he is now underpriced - Hillary is still very formidable and an Obama win in Iowa was predicted a while out and therefore was fatored in the price. BUT the scale of his vistory wasn't - he is a class act, at least by the way he comes across.
Can't see Huckabee winning the nomination - if he does he has no chance of beating Hill or Barack - the only way the GOP can win this thing is with McCain or Rudy and cannot see the red states voting for Rudy.....
As somebody said, a fascinating race......
DB Cooper is alive !
It was indeed a great result for Obama, but its very early days. In 92 Bill Clinton done WORSE than Hillary did last night, but went on to run away with it in New Hampshire. So unless Obama can inspire an increase in turn out in New Hampshire I'd expect Hillary to make more of a scrap of it in "uppity" New Hampshire.
And to suggest that Obama has "sown" up the black vote is stunningly naieve - just as naieve as saying that Hillary has sown up the female vote. However its felt that alot of the black community will now have more confidence in lining in behind him now - only AFTER seeing how he done yesterday in a 95% white state. Before that alot of blacks wouldn't have "wasted" their vote on trying to elect a black president because nobody else was voting with them - eg the Sharpton, and Jackson presidential runs.
Key point well made - leaving aside the peculiarities of the caucus system, Iowa is an unusual state in terms of ethnic demographic but also in terms of the high number of christian conservatives / evangelicals......
DB Cooper is alive !
Obama will win New Hamshire. He can win the nomination.
His victory speech mentions what "a man with a Kenyan father can do if..."
54,321 sold - wws will never die - ***
---
New blog if anyone's interested - http://loihistory.wordpress.com/
LOI section on balls.ie - http://balls.ie/league-of-ireland/
wow , i agree with you twice in one day!jeez
Yeah wouldnt it be great for America and the world to see Obama elected. And it wouldnt be because he is black, just that he is honest. Imagine an honest politican?
Cant stand the Clinton, on a power trip.
Anyway I backed Huckabee at 12/1, but only two days before he was 66/1. Damn, cause i fancied he would/will do well. If you believe in conspiracies ( I do!), he could get it, but then they reckon Clinton will get it and mess up bigtime and result in the Republicans having control after her two terms after?
One or the other
Just one interesting note on this. I was working in America last year and chatting to somebody about this. Apparently a lot of females see Hilary as being weak for forgiving a man who cheated on her, and will not vote for her for that reason.
The glass isn't half full or half empty it's just too damn big!
With due note of the overuse of the word "historic", I think today could be a truly historic day in US and world history.
Traffic on the Drudge Report yesterday suggests that Hillary might pull out if she has a bad night. The early villages that voted are heavily weighted to Obama (Wingnuts will remember the fictional Hartsfields Landing which is actually 2 small towns in NH).
A big win for Obama guarantees him the nomination, except for a major career ending scandal or a major gaffe. His VP choice becomes much easier if he beats Hillary easily (she is not a VP possibility if she loses badly and he will be left wth Edwards, Biden or Richardson, depending on who the GOP nominates).
His biggest advantage in the general is the the GOP are a mess - I have never seen 3 less impressive candidates than Romney, Huckabee and Thompson, Ron Paul is actually unhinged and their electable candidates, McCain and Guliani are essentially Democrats.
The GOP faithful need to decide whether they want to retain control of a party that loses or lose control of a party that can win.
Obama would beat Romney or Huckabee in a general but would struggle against McCain or Guilani.
Tonight will be pivotal - amazing stuff.
DB Cooper is alive !
So by that rationale, as far as I can establish from what little I have watched / read / heard reported, John McCain is the man?
Not meaning to take the **** - Obama does come across as very honest, but then so does a good actor. Sadly, I fear his folksy proto-Kennedy-ism is not backed by anything of substance, and he is carrying we Europeans along because he seems far more civilised than the current incumbent. I am keen to see how New Hampshire, a more politically motivated state according to some (Iowa being more personality and values oriented) will view him. I would be prepared to make a wager that, if elected, in his time there will be little real improvement made to the lot of the African-American, in the same way that our two Queen Marys have not managed to redress the balance of gender in Irish politics.
Of Clinton, I suspect that she is the most trained, and qualified of all those running. Aside Gore, there has not been this qualified a candidate since the 1988 election, even at this stage of the races, and I include those who were running for a second term. But, I fear, like Gore she will alienate by doing what she believes is necessary to win, and has done already - hold back on naming the policies she believes in, and attempt to be something that I suspect that she isn't. I'm not suggesting for one minute that she is a more left leaning candidate, but I suspect she knows what she is at far better. However, IF she were elected (note that this is a very big "if"), I expect she would be torn apart by the Washington Press boys on the basis of the fact that she is a woman, look more vulnerable and cold simultaneously and never get re-elected allowing a buffoon to get elected. I think that Condi Rice (no, I'm not a fan) is possibly the one woman who could get re-elected in the current political spectrum. Her, and Elizabeth Kucinich.
Of the others, Edwards is the stand-out candidate. This man has a longer term future in the Democrat Party than either of the others, almost certainly a future Leader of the Senate, and if Clinton or Obama get it, he is almost a cert for Veep, seeing as it is a Clinton / Obama or Obama / Clinton ticket would never get near it. He ticks a lot of the electable boxes - self made family man from the South (JFK the last non-Southern Democrat to get near elected), good looking, hard working and clearly not corrupted. He is also quite a degree further left than the other pair (Clinton being centre, and Obama seeming without defined politics). Unfortunately, he doesn't seem to have a peg on which to focus, while his counterparts have had, both then and now (colour, gender, major single issue) and it is generally vital to win the Democrat Nom. Sadly, I cannot see him taking the nom, though I reckon he might win an election against any other than McCain, or possibly Bloomberg, but in four years, if there is a Republican back at 1600, I would back him heavily at Paddy Powers to win in 2012.
Tonight is big, possibly the decision for the nom may be made by a big turnout in favour of any one candidate. If I were forced at gun point to vote for one of the Democrat candidates, I would plumb for Kuncinich, as an actual vaguely left leaning person, but more likely I will not bother to vote, what with the paucity of a decent major condidate, and the small matter of my not being eligible.
Last edited by Bluebeard; 08/01/2008 at 9:51 AM.
That question was less stupid, though you asked it in a profoundly stupid way.
Help me, Arthur Murphy, you're my only hope!
And therefore takes someone with a sense of humour to think its funny
It doesnt really matter who wins it will make no difference do people still think the president runs the country ??
Last edited by anto1208; 08/01/2008 at 12:23 PM.
Obama on a role but I don't believe Clinton would pull out after NH as it is a small state like Iowa. She will stay until Super Tuesday at least. Florida at the end of this month is first big state. Don't understand how Obama has got to this position with virtually no experience or track record. Is Oprah endorsement worth so much?
My clip of the day is Ron Paul v Giuliani on Fox News. Can't say Paul does not speak his mind.
Any Idea when the results of NH will be out?
surprised HC is doing so badly, really thought she had a shot at the whitehouse
[QUOTE=pete;849400]
My clip of the day is Ron Paul v Giuliani on Fox News. Can't say Paul does not speak his mind.
QUOTE]
I agree, Paul does speak his mind but he is unhinged. Have a look at his recent Meet the Press appearance <http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032608/>.
He comes across as bonkers for example, he wants to remove Income Tax and the Department of Education and is a strict constituionalist - bonkers - but because he speaks out against some of the shibboleths, especially on US foreign policy, he comes across as sane - this guy is dangerous.
DB Cooper is alive !
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