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Thread: The role of luck

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by EalingGreen View Post
    apparently the Ref was instructed by a UEFA Official not to call it off, since there wasn't time for a replay!).
    I heard on the radio that the protocol is to try and re-arrange for the Sunday but this is difficult in Northern ireland. True / not true?

  2. #22
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    Ouch!

  3. #23
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    Wasn't trying to be controversial. I thought I heard this at tea-time on 5 Live.

    Please don't let "The Role of Luck" turn into another 50 pager!

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by EalingGreen View Post
    Re. NI v Denmark, you could make a case for saying the Danes were "unlucky" - hitting the post, handball etc.

    However, you could make a greater case, statistically at least, for saying they were lucky it wasn't much worse for them. For example, we also hit the post, with their keeper beaten. And their (scrambled) goal came directly from a throw-in which clearly hit a Danish player last. We had 58% of Possession to their 42% (obviously!), nine corners to their four, committed 9 fouls to their 13 and had 12 shots to their 9. Most tellingly, 8 of our shots were on target, but only 2 of theirs - the goal and the handball. Above all, their keeper was excellent, far busier than ours.

    As I read the game, the physically bigger Danes just edged the first half, but the conditions were so atrocious that it was actually a rather poor game, with neither team able to get their game together. (I've never seen a game played on so wet a pitch - apparently the Ref was instructed by a UEFA Official not to call it off, since there wasn't time for a replay!).

    However, after it stopped raining around half time (after 7 hours solid!), the pitch began to dry. And although the Danes scored 5 minutes into the half, when we got an equaliser, there was only one team was ever going to win it. In fact, for all that they kept trying, had there been more time left, I think we'd have killed them off. And fair enough, they threw everything at us in the last 5 minutes, and had chances, but there is no way they deserved to get even a point (imo).

    Anyhow, as luck goes, you can argue individual games or incidents all you like, but it evens itself out over the course of 12 games.

    Far more relevant, imo, was the initial Draw. As such, Scotland had no luck whatever, drawing the two World Cup Finalists and a Quarter Finalist. NI's draw wasn't that much better, with teams ranked 10th, 16th and 18th in the world at the time.

    By contrast, the ROI/Wales got a somewhat easier draw (i.e. each other! ), and England were as jammy as they always are!

    Actually agree with that post, Feeney was very unlucky with that shot off thw post which would have topped Healy's goal for me had it gone in.

    However, much as we've been crap most of the campaign, you do seem to be forgetting that we also had the semi finalists of the last World Cup and also the semi finlaists of last European Championships in our group, a level that Spain, Denamrk and Sweden haven't been near in a while.......

    Calling the NI group draw not much better then Scotland's is stretching credibility somewhat!

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    The line is indeed fine, Russia hit the post in the 88th minute to go 2-1 up and put England out, ball down the other end, defender makes a howler and Israel win it to almost secure the English place in the line up. Couldn't believe it.

    You make your own luck, but sometimes footie just does some damn strange things. Although I laugh to hear Fletcher today whine about the free to the Italians when the goal disallowed and the one Scot got were totally the wrong decision both times. Some people don't know when they are born.

    I thought NI were worthy winners.
    The above is all opinion and based on personal experience. Unless stated otherwise it is not a dig at anybody, well probably none of you lot.

  6. #26
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    I suppose you could cite the long term loss of Duff & Steven Reid and crucial loss of Given as unluckly.

  7. #27
    Seasoned Pro EalingGreen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuttgart88 View Post
    I heard on the radio that the protocol is to try and re-arrange for the Sunday but this is difficult in Northern ireland. True / not true?
    Afaik, there is a requirement that when games are postponed due to weather, it should be attempted to replay them within 24 hours.

    However, I'm pretty sure that when Linfield originally purchased the land for Windsor 100-odd years ago, it came with a restrictive covenant preventing football (and other commercial activities?) being carried out on a Sunday. In fact, they may have bought the land from a local church, which would explain it?

    Anyhow, whilst the IFA has an outdated Rule preventing Sunday football, they've ignored this in the past for away games (World Cups etc), but I doubt whether they could have forced Linfield to break a legal requirement.

    In fact, I was told on good authority that the Ref was already reluctant to proceed by around 6 pm, but they were getting forecasts from the local Met Office every 15 minutes assuring him that the rain was going to ease anytime! (The forecast in the morning had been that the rain would pass over Belfast by mid-afternoon)

    In fact, it didn't actually cease until around half-time (8.30 pm), having absolutely poured down non-stop from midday!

    Tbh, whilst I thought the first half was a lottery, both sides will have wanted to get the game over with, since each had a slim chance of qualifying following a win at Windsor and I suspect they will have wanted the maximum rest before their final game on Wednesday. And as it turned out, the second half was noticeably better. For us, anyhow!

  8. #28
    Seasoned Pro EalingGreen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drumcondra 69er View Post
    Actually agree with that post, Feeney was very unlucky with that shot off thw post which would have topped Healy's goal for me had it gone in.

    However, much as we've been crap most of the campaign, you do seem to be forgetting that we also had the semi finalists of the last World Cup and also the semi finlaists of last European Championships in our group, a level that Spain, Denamrk and Sweden haven't been near in a while.......

    Calling the NI group draw not much better then Scotland's is stretching credibility somewhat!
    Whilst acknowledging that your 3rd Seeding benefited you with the Draw, as is only proper (we were Seeded 6th!), nonetheless I'd still have swapped our draw for yours like a shot! In fact, I wouldn't mind drawing the same teams as you had in next week's WC2010 draw!

    Germany may have been WC Semi-Finalists last time out, but they benefited from Home advantage, plus Klinnsmann's inspiration as manager. There is a strong case for saying that this is their weakest National team in years (Where are their superstars, other than Ballack? How to explain German clubs' relative failure in the Champions League in recent years compared with Italy, England and Spain?)

    And many of the best Czech players are ageing or recently retired - I think that team could be in a gradual decline.

    I take your point about the Scottish Group, mind - on reflection, it was considerably harder than ours, never mind yours or Englands.
    Last edited by EalingGreen; 19/11/2007 at 2:38 PM.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuttgart88 View Post
    I suppose you could cite the long term loss of Duff & Steven Reid and crucial loss of Given as unluckly.
    not to mention the appointment of staunton
    Was he crazy!! Yeah , in a very special way , an Irishman.
    I slept, and dreamed that life was Beauty;
    I woke, and found that life was Duty.

  10. #30
    Seasoned Pro EalingGreen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuttgart88 View Post
    I suppose you could cite the long term loss of Duff & Steven Reid and crucial loss of Given as unluckly.
    Every team has injuries - it's just that those with the smallest squads feel it the most.

  11. #31
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    Yeah, but John O'shea was always fit. No justice...

  12. #32
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    from my viewpoint:

    NI- lucky to hold on in last few mins with corners posts and handballs - even the co-commentator on the bbc was p1ssing himself laughing!!! but overall seemed to deserve their win.

    Scotland- Very unlucky that the ref gave a free kick, i mean how on earth did he see that as a free for italy, it was either a scotish free or a throw in. however they had earlier been gifted a goal and the italians had one struck off by the same linesman. as i watched the game i felt the ref and his linesmen were total 'homers' for about 60 mins of the game. then they seemed to decide that they didn't want the scots to get anything and began to give decisions to the italians!!!

    Ireland- we were just pure sh1te in this campaign if the truth be told!!!

    Eng- even that woman from limerick who won the euro millions would think that shower are lucky!!!

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